Excessive Heat Warning 2, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Anoka County, MN, Blue Earth County, MN, Brown County, MN, Carver County, MN, Dakota County, MN, Faribault County, MN, Freeborn County, MN, Goodhue County, MN, Hennepin County, MN, Le Sueur County, MN, Martin County, MN, McLeod County, MN, Meeker County, MN, Nicollet County, MN, Ramsey County, MN, Redwood County, MN, Renville County, MN, Rice County, MN, Scott County, MN, Sibley County, MN, Steele County, MN, Waseca County, MN, Washington County, MN, Watonwan County, MN, Wright County, MN, Yellow Medicine County, MN, Eau Claire County, WI, Pepin County, WI, Pierce County, WI

773 
WWUS73 KMPX 191947
NPWMPX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
247 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

MNZ058>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ024-026-028-200300-
/O.CON.KMPX.EH.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190720T0300Z/
Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-Yellow Medicine-
Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-
Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-Waseca-Steele-Martin-
Faribault-Freeborn-Pierce-Pepin-Eau Claire-
Including the cities of Litchfield, Monticello, Minneapolis, 
Blaine, St Paul, Stillwater, Granite Falls, Olivia, Hutchinson, 
Gaylord, Chaska, Shakopee, Hastings, Redwood Falls, New Ulm, 
St Peter, Le Sueur, Faribault, Red Wing, St James, Mankato, 
Waseca, Owatonna, Fairmont, Blue Earth, Albert Lea, River Falls, 
Prescott, Durand, and Eau Claire
247 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

* TEMPERATURE...Highs of 90 to 95 this afternoon, combined with
  dew points in the upper 70s and low 80s, has resulted in heat
  indices of 105 to 115 degrees. Cooler temperatures are expected
  later tonight, as a cold front moves across the area.

* IMPACTS...The high heat indices during the day will lead to 
  increased risk for heat-related illness for those active 
  outdoors or with limited access to air conditioning. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take extra precautions...if you work or spend time outside. When
possible...reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
stroke. Wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when
possible and drink plenty of water.

  To reduce risk during outdoor work...the occupational safety
and health administration recommends scheduling frequent rest
breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome
by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location.   Heat
stroke is an emergency...call 9 1 1.

  An Excessive Heat Warning means that a prolonged period of
dangerously hot temperatures will occur. The combination of hot
temperatures and high humidity will combine to create a dangerous
situation in which heat illnesses are likely. Drink plenty of
fluids...stay in an air-conditioned room...stay out of the sun...
and check up on relatives and neighbors.

  Young children and pets should never be left unattended in
vehicles under any circumstances.  This is especially true during
warm or hot weather when car interiors can reach lethal
temperatures in a matter of minutes.

&&

$$

MNZ049>057-WIZ014>016-023-025-027-200100-
/O.CON.KMPX.HT.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-190720T0100Z/
Stearns-Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-
Chippewa-Kandiyohi-Polk-Barron-Rusk-St. Croix-Dunn-
Including the cities of St Cloud, Foley, Elk River, Cambridge, 
Center City, Madison, Benson, Montevideo, Willmar, Osceola, 
Rice Lake, Ladysmith, Hudson, Menomonie, and Chippewa Falls
247 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

* TEMPERATURE...Highs around 90 this afternoon, combined with dew
  points in the 70s, has resulted in heat indices of 95 to 105
  degrees. Cooler temperatures are expected after sunset, as a
  cold front moves across the area.

* IMPACTS...The high heat indices during the day will lead to 
  increased risk for heat-related illness for those active 
  outdoors or with limited access to air conditioning. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is
expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity
will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are
possible. Drink plenty of fluids...stay in an air-conditioned
room...stay out of the sun...and check up on relatives and
neighbors.

Take extra precautions...if you work or spend time outside. When
possible...reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
stroke. Wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when
possible and drink plenty of water.

&&

$$

561 
WWUS73 KMPX 200240
NPWMPX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
940 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

MNZ058>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ024-026-028-200345-
/O.EXP.KMPX.EH.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190720T0300Z/
Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-Yellow Medicine-
Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-
Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-Waseca-Steele-Martin-
Faribault-Freeborn-Pierce-Pepin-Eau Claire-
Including the cities of Litchfield, Monticello, Minneapolis, 
Blaine, St Paul, Stillwater, Granite Falls, Olivia, Hutchinson, 
Gaylord, Chaska, Shakopee, Hastings, Redwood Falls, New Ulm, 
St Peter, Le Sueur, Faribault, Red Wing, St James, Mankato, 
Waseca, Owatonna, Fairmont, Blue Earth, Albert Lea, River Falls, 
Prescott, Durand, and Eau Claire
940 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

$$

Borghoff

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
116 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

Updated for the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2019

Short term concerns remain convective potential tonight and again
mainly late Friday afternoon/Friday night. Heat concerns remain
through Friday.

Clouds developed in the wake of last nights MCS and contaminated
the eastern portion of the CWA with moisture trapped under
building capping inversion. This kept temepratures in the 80s for
the most part with mid 90s heat indices where sunshine was more
prevalent. Mid level flow continues to stream east across central
CWA with a passing shower from time to time. Will need to mention
a low PoP for this into the evening. Cap across the boundary to
the far south remains, and cumulus is having a tough time
building. If storms intitiate, severe weather is likely with CAPE
values in excess of 4000 J/kg along and south of the MN/IA
border. Latest HRRR continue to initiate scattered convection
north of the boundary into the early evening. This may yet happen
and will continue to mention chance PoPs for this. Again, it would
become severe rapidly with hail and damaging winds the main
threat. Cannot rule out an isolated tornado near the surface
boundary early after initiation. Later this evening, if activity
does fire, expect it to move east and eventually southeast over
southeast MN. It may work into far southern metro into Eau Claire
WI area before midnight.

Morning convection should end early with an outside chance of
some elevated activity into the far north CWA during the day.
Otherwise, southern MN remains well capped with +14c mid level air
over the region south of the front. Will have to wait for forcing
along the front into the late afternoon/early evening for
development. This could be severe as well, mainly across the far
eastern areas.

Depending on overall cloud cover again Friday, heat will remain a
concern with heat indices forecast 100-106F across the heat
advisory area. That looks to be the worst case scenario for now.
With temepratures warming through the lower 90s and dewpoints in
the mid 70s. Will have to continue to monitor overall trends to
see if parts of the advisory need to be upgraded or expanded.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2019

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue through Saturday
as the front sags south across the area. A pattern shift to cooler
and much drier weather begins on Sunday, and continues into next
week. Expect the heavy rain and strong/severe thunderstorm threat
from Friday night to be pretty much over by Saturday morning, as we
end up on the cool side of the boundary where instability and PW
values will be much lower. Scattered thunderstorms should continue
into saturday afternoon/evening as the rear exit region of the
departing jet lingers overhead and provides sufficient lift north of
the front. This precipitation should depart south of the area by
Saturday night, with Canadian high pressure and drier
conditions building into the region on Sunday.

The upper air pattern changes to one favoring drier and cooler
weather Sunday into next week, as ridging builds over the
intermountain west and results in northwest flow aloft over the
upper midwest. While a few impulses may ripple through the flow and
lead to slight precipitation chances, will continue to keep the
forecast dry next week given the lack of any substantial forcing
mechanisms. Temperatures look to return to more seasonable values
along with drier dewpoints in the upper 50s/low 60s. Some gradual
warming is possible towards the end of the week as the ridge axis
shifts more to the east.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

Main issue for this period is the frontal boundary lifting slowly
north across southern MN. Thunderstroms will likely develop along
the front Friday afternoon, so have updated timing with prob30
groups at a few sites. Winds will be fairly light, but across far
southern MN increasing southerly flow will develop. Besides the
storms for tomorrow afternoon and evening, the period will be VFR.

KMSP...uncertainty remains high for thunder chances Friday
evening.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sat...VFR. Chc TSRA. Wind NE 5 kts.
Sun...VFR. Chc TSRA. Wind N 5 kts.
Mon...VFR. Winds N 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for WIZ023>028.

MN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ060>063-067>070-
     074>078-082>085-091>093.

&&

UPDATE...SPD
SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...ETA
AVIATION...SPD

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1249 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2019

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
191800-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
1249 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible late this
afternoon and overnight across mainly southern Minnesota into a
portion of west central Wisconsin. Large hail and damaging winds
are the primary threats, along with heavy rainfall. An isolated
tornado is also possible.

A Heat Advisory is in effect from this afternoon through Friday
for south central and east central Minnesota into west central
Wisconsin. Heat indices from 95 to 105 are expected during the
afternoon and early evening hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

There is a chance for additional thunderstorms Friday though the
weekend, with a few severe storms possible over that time period
along with locally heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon and
evening over parts of southern Minnesota.