Areal Flood Warning 3, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
327 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2019

An area of strong low pressure that was centered over western
Wisconsin this afternoon, will continue to pivot, and accelerate to
the northeast over the Great Lakes tonight.

Light rain initially this afternoon, will switch over to light snow
across eastern Minnesota, and western Wisconsin this evening. A
light dusting is possible before the snow tapers off after midnight.
Across west central, southwest, and south central Minnesota, the
pressure gradient will remain tight through the evening. Just above
the boundary layer, winds increase to 45 to 55 mph from the
northwest. These winds will occasional mix to the surface through
this evening. The wind advisory has been extended through the
evening as the gusty winds of 40 to 55 mph will continue through
midnight. Temperatures will fall below freezing overnight, and this
will create icy spots on roadways, especially where ponding of water
has occurred from the recent rainfall, and snow melt. Please be
careful this evening as these icy conditions will likely occur fast
once the sunsets.

No forecast changes past tonight as northwest flow will continue and
lead to below average temperatures. Lows tonight will fall into the
20s, with highs on Friday only rising to near freezing. Friday night
will again fall well below freezing which will lead to any melting
snow/ice Friday, to refreeze.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2019

Gradual warming and fairly benign weather is still expected over
the weekend and through next week. The upper-level trough
extending into the Northern Plains and Great Lakes region will
gradually shift eastward over the weekend with broad surface high
pressure over the Central CONUS. A shortwave trough will bring an
increase in cloud cover beginning Saturday afternoon with
widespread status expected overnight into Sunday. There is a a
slight chance for snow with this disturbance on Saturday night.
Another shortwave trough brings a slight chance for precipitation
on Tuesday, but otherwise, mostly dry conditions will persist
through Thursday.

An upper level ridge will become shift over the Central CONUS by
late Wednesday. There is still model uncertainty as to how amplified
it will be, but it should allow for near-normal temperatures with
highs in the mid 40s possible on Thursday. Otherwise, low
temperatures each night in the extended period should fall to
below freezing, which should help slow down our snow-melt.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2019

A low pressure area was centered in south central Minnesota early
this afternoon. Under this low pressure, cigs/vsbys are LIFR/VLIFR
which has been consistent for several hours as it slowly moved
northeast. A brief period of VFR conditions are possible near
KEAU but it will be short lived as this low pressure center moves
overhead this afternoon. Elsewhere, -SN has begun in western
Minnesota which will reduce vsby to IFR at times, but MVFR vsby
should be predominate as strong northwest winds develop and spread
eastward across Minnesota this afternoon. Timing looks good with
-RA changing to -SN from west to east over the next several hours,
reaching eastern Minnesota by 00z. Snowfall amounts should be
minor with a half inch possible before the snow tapers off this
evening in western Wisconsin. MVFR/VFR conditions will develop
later tonight, but precipitation will end by this evening.

KMSP...

IFR/LIFR cigs/vsbys will slowly improve after 21z as winds
increase from the northwest. -SN will be possible toward 00z, but
no accumulations are expected. Wind gusts of 24-28 kts are likely
by later this afternoon. VFR conditions are likely Friday morning,
but residual moisture will return MVFR cigs by Friday afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

Sat-Sun...VFR. Wind WNW 5-10 kts.
Mon...VFR. Wind W 5 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Friday for MNZ049-057-058-065>067-
     073>075-082-083-091-092.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ041-
     042-047-048-054>056-064.

     Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM CDT Friday for
     MNZ041-042-047-048-054>056-064.

&&

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...AMK
AVIATION...JLT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
249 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2019

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
152000-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
249 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Very strong wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph are expected through this
evening across western and southern Minnesota. Blowing snow will
accompany these strong winds in western Minnesota during the
afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Area streams and rivers will continue to fluctuate over the next
week. Minor flooding will be possible with recent heavy rainfall
and snow melt. However, freezing temperatures over the weekend
will likely see a reduction in rapid rises. Ice will begin to
break up on rivers and streams, and could lead to ice jam
flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
125 PM CDT THU MAR 14 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 PM     FLOOD            1 E SHOREVIEW           45.08N 93.12W
03/14/2019                   RAMSEY             MN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            CLOSURE OF GRAMSIE RD, WATER IN A GARDEN
            APARTMENT.

&&

TDH