Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
642 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2019

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z issuance...VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24
hours. /13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 402 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2019/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Saturday/...An upper high pressure area
centered over South Carolina and Georgia will continue to weaken
and shift southeastward as a strong upper shortwave exiting the
northern Rockies sweeps over the northern High Plains tonight, and
then over the northern plains and upper midwest states on
Saturday. The ongoing isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms that have developed this afternoon have mainly
resulted from the decreasing stability due to strong surface
heating. However, a secondary trigger is a stalled surface
boundary that lies from west to east across the central portions
of the forecast area. This boundary is expected to remain nearly
stalled through noon Saturday, and then lift northward in the
afternoon as a surface ridge rebuilds along the eastern seaboard
and southeast states. Expect the current shower and thunderstorm
activity to dissipate by midnight, but a few strong storms will be
possible in the meantime. Strong surface heating again on
Saturday will allow isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms to re- develop during the afternoon hours, mainly
west of I-65. Low temperatures tonight will be 8 to 12 degrees
above normal, ranging from 68 to 72 degrees inland areas, and from
73 to 77 degrees along the immediate coast. Hot temperatures will
occur again Saturday (8 to 12 degrees above normal), ranging from
92 to 96 degrees inland areas, and around 90 degrees along the
immediate coast. /22

SHORT TERM /Saturday night Through Monday night/...A mid level
trough sweeps southeast across the Plains before crossing the
Mississippi River Sunday night. This trough weakens as it then
moves east across the Southeast Monday though Monday night. An
initially moderate cold front associated with the trough moves
across the forecast area Monday afternoon into Monday evening
before stalling over the northern Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday as
the weakening upper trough moves quickly east of the Southeast.
The weakening nature of the mid level trough, then eastward
movement as it passes over the region will help to weaken the
front as it moves southeast across the region

Ahead of the approaching front, increasing coverage of
precipitation is expected Sunday from Saturday, with a likely
chance of showers and thunderstorms expected with the front's
passage Monday. Am not anticipating an organized severe weather
event either Sunday or Monday. Daytime instability remains
sufficient (MLCapes topping out in the 1000-1500J/kg range) for
strong to marginally severe storms, but weak wind shear will help
to limit a more organized severe event with the front's passage.

Temperatures in the Short Term continue the current trend of
rising to above seasonal norms. High temperatures Sunday rise
into the upper 80s to low 90s across most of the forecast area,
mid to upper 80s MOnday as increased cloud cover and better rain
coverage limit daytime heating. Low temperatures falling into the
upper 60s to low 70s inland, mid 70s along the coast, are expected
Saturday and Sunday nights. The passing front will bring cooler
air to the area, helping low temperatures Monday night fall to
around 60 across northwestern-most portions to the area,
increasing to around 70 along the coast.
/16

LONG TERM /Tuesday Through Friday/...Flow in the upper levels
becomes zonal Tuesday, then as another upper trough digs southeast
across the western CONUS, an upper ridge begins to build north
across the Southeast. The upper trough passes north of the
Southeast late in the coming week or weekend (guidance varies in
the timing), with another cold front moving across the region
Friday and Saturday. The passing trough will help to limit the
strength of the building upper trough. Temperatures rise to
about 5 degrees above seasonal norms in the Long Term, though,
before the coming front brings a cool-off. How much of a cool-off
is unclear, especially with the timing and strength of the cold
front inconsistent in the guidance at this time. /16

MARINE...A light offshore flow will develop overnight, followed by
a light southeast flow developing throughout the day Saturday as a
surface ridge rebuilds along the eastern seaboard and southeast
states. A moderate and mainly easterly flow will follow Saturday
night through Sunday, with occasionally strong winds over the open
Gulf waters. A cold front meanwhile approaches from the north then
moves through the marine area Monday night with a moderate to
occasionally strong offshore flow in the wake of the front. /22

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mobile AL
437 AM CDT Fri Oct 4 2019

ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-050945-
Choctaw-Washington-Clarke-Wilcox-Monroe-Conecuh-Butler-Crenshaw-
Escambia-Covington-Mobile Inland-Baldwin Inland-Mobile Central-
Baldwin Central-Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Inland-
Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Inland-Santa Rosa Coastal-
Okaloosa Inland-Okaloosa Coastal-Wayne-Perry-Greene-Stone-George-
437 AM CDT Fri Oct 4 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Alabama...southwest Alabama...northwest Florida and southeast
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a moderate risk of rip currents along area beaches
through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

There is a moderate risk of rip currents along area beaches
Saturday and Saturday night.

There is a high risk of rip currents along area beaches Sunday and
Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of SkyWarn Severe Storm Spotter networks is not
expected through Thursday.

GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675-050945-
Northern Mobile Bay-Southern Mobile Bay-Mississippi Sound-
Perdido Bay-Pensacola Bay System-Western Choctawhatchee Bay-
Eastern Choctawhatchee Bay-
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola
FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL from
20 to 60 NM-
437 AM CDT Fri Oct 4 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the coastal
waters of Alabama and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Moderate to occasionally strong winds may create hazardous conditions
for small craft over the open Gulf waters Saturday night through
Sunday and again Monday night through Wednesday.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
557 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2019

MSZ067-050000-
Wayne MS-
557 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
NORTHERN WAYNE COUNTY UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

At 557 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles northeast
of Waynesboro, moving west at 15 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Waynesboro.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3189 8848 3165 8847 3163 8886 3183 8884
      3183 8876 3185 8865
TIME...MOT...LOC 2257Z 094DEG 13KT 3175 8855

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
641 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2019

MSZ075-050030-
Perry MS-
641 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...CENTRAL
PERRY COUNTY UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

At 640 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located over New Augusta,
or 12 miles south of Richton, moving southwest at 30 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Beaumont and New Augusta.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3124 8914 3133 8889 3114 8888 3100 8914
TIME...MOT...LOC 2340Z 062DEG 35KT 3119 8901

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
703 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2019

MSZ075-050045-
Perry MS-
703 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
NORTHWESTERN PERRY COUNTY UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

At 702 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 6 miles west of
Richton, moving west at 15 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern Perry
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3143 8915 3144 8901 3143 8896 3130 8894
      3125 8915
TIME...MOT...LOC 0002Z 089DEG 12KT 3135 8905

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
717 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2019

ALZ261-262-050100-
Baldwin Inland AL-Mobile Inland AL-
717 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
NORTHEASTERN MOBILE AND NORTHWESTERN BALDWIN COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM
CDT...

At 716 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located near Stockton, or
12 miles northwest of Bay Minette, moving west at 20 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Citronelle, Creola, Chunchula, Stockton, Gulfcrest, Axis, Mount
Vernon, I65 And AL 225 and Movico.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3114 8827 3115 8794 3114 8794 3115 8793
      3115 8788 3114 8787 3115 8787 3115 8777
      3090 8775 3089 8789 3092 8791 3090 8790
      3089 8797 3090 8797 3089 8798 3088 8826
TIME...MOT...LOC 0016Z 087DEG 19KT 3104 8788

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