Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
356 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Saturday/...Scattered to numerous showers
and storms will be ongoing through the remainder of the afternoon.
Some of the storms have been locally strong, with a few closer to
the radar showing evidence of divergence signatures at 0.5 degree
base velocity. A few storms could become briefly severe. Stronger
storms will also contain frequent lightning which will be potentially
deadly. Slow storm motion and locally heavy downpours may result
in some instances of mainly nuisance type flooding. Anticipate it
taking some time for afternoon storms that carry over into the
evening to decrease in coverage. Thus, will mention scattered
evening storms that gradually decrease by late in the evening with
re-development occurring offshore late in the night. The environment
supports the development of waterspouts over the marine area tonight
into Saturday morning. Overnight lows 69 to 73 over the interior to
mid 70s closer to the beaches. /10

Amplified upper air pattern continues into the first of the
weekend over the CONUS with a deep layer ridge over the southwest
Atlantic and the other positioned over the southwest US. Between
these two features, a trof axis holds in place from the Appalachians
to the central Gulf. Under the upper trof, a weak reflection of a
surface pressure trof remains aligned over the central Gulf
coast. Little change in deep moisture with PWATs ranging from 1.7
to 1.9 inches. Within this environment, deep layer ascent provided
by the trof axis both aloft and surface will aid in the re-
development of scattered to perhaps numerous showers and storms
during the day Saturday as the air-mass destabilizes. Some of the
stronger storms have the potential of producing brief strong wind
gusts in excess of 40 mph and frequent lightning activity. If storm
cores can achieve heights higher than the -20C layer (~25 kft), then
forecasters cannot discount a brief occurrence of severe convective
downburst winds upon core collapse. Before onset of storms, highs
lift to a range from the upper 80s to lower 90s. /10

.SHORT TERM /Saturday night Through Monday night/...Amplified
upper pattern with a ridge over the southwestern states and a
trough over the eastern states will continue. Meanwhile, a weak
sfc trough will linger across central Alabama. The combination of
these factors and plenty of deep layer moisture will lead to
scattered to locally numerous showers and thunderstorms
developing each day. Coverage will be most widespread in the
morning near the coast before moving inland through the day. The
primary threats will continue to be frequent lightning and locally
heavy rain. /13

.LONG TERM /Tuesday Through Friday/...Little change in the overall
pattern through the end of the week with a ridge over the western
states and a trough over the east. Plentiful deep layer moisture
over the region will keep high-end scattered to locally numerous
showers and storms each afternoon. Temperatures continue to
average in the low to mid 90s inland and around 90 near the coast
during the day, with lows each night in the 70s. /13

&&

.MARINE...A weak surface pressure pattern this weekend results in a
light wind flow pattern. Surface high pressure over the southwest
Atlantic noses westward into the Gulf next week resulting in a
better established west to southwest flow. Little change in seas.
Winds, waves and seas will be locally higher in and near storms.
Frequent lightning will be likely in the strongest storms.
Waterspouts possible late tonight and Saturday morning. Remember,
these can also form under rain-free cumulus. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      72  91  74  90  73  90  73  90 /  30  50  20  50  30  60  20  50
Pensacola   75  90  77  89  77  89  76  90 /  20  40  20  40  30  60  50  40
Destin      76  88  78  88  78  87  77  87 /  30  40  20  40  30  60  50  50
Evergreen   71  92  73  91  73  90  72  92 /  40  60  30  60  30  70  20  40
Waynesboro  70  90  71  89  71  89  70  91 /  40  60  40  60  30  60  10  30
Camden      70  89  72  90  72  89  71  91 /  30  60  30  60  30  60  10  30
Crestview   70  91  72  91  73  90  71  91 /  30  60  20  40  30  60  40  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
340 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019

ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-032100-
Choctaw-Washington-Clarke-Wilcox-Monroe-Conecuh-Butler-Crenshaw-
Escambia-Covington-Mobile Inland-Baldwin Inland-Mobile Central-
Baldwin Central-Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Inland-
Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Inland-Santa Rosa Coastal-
Okaloosa Inland-Okaloosa Coastal-Wayne-Perry-Greene-Stone-George-
340 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Alabama,
southwest Alabama, northwest Florida and southeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

A few strong thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and into
the evening before storms decrease in coverage. Gusty straight line
winds and frequent cloud to ground lightning will be the main threats
with the stronger storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Scattered to perhaps numerous storms during the outlook may contain
brief strong gusty winds and frequent lightning activity.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675-032100-
Northern Mobile Bay-Southern Mobile Bay-Mississippi Sound-
Perdido Bay-Pensacola Bay System-Western Choctawhatchee Bay-
Eastern Choctawhatchee Bay-
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL
out 20 NM-Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL from
20 to 60 NM-
340 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the coastal waters of Alabama
and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Winds, waves and seas will be locally higher in and near storms.
Frequent lightning will be likely in the strongest storms.
Waterspouts possible late tonight. Remember, these can also form
under rain-free cumulus.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Winds, waves and seas will be locally higher in and near isolated to
scattered storms over the weekend. Frequent lightning will be likely
in the strongest storms. Waterspouts possible Saturday morning.
Remember, these can also form under rain-free cumulus. Storms will
continue to bring hazards next week.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
119 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019

ALZ264-021845-
Baldwin Central AL-
119 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
SOUTHWESTERN BALDWIN COUNTY UNTIL 145 PM CDT...

At 119 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 4 miles southeast
of Fairhope. This storm was nearly stationary.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Fairhope.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3046 8791 3049 8791 3049 8793 3055 8790
      3058 8791 3063 8781 3047 8774 3043 8780
      3047 8780 3046 8781 3041 8785
TIME...MOT...LOC 1819Z 138DEG 4KT 3049 8784

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
139 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019

ALZ264-021915-
Baldwin Central AL-
139 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...WEST
CENTRAL BALDWIN COUNTY UNTIL 215 PM CDT...

At 139 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located over Daphne,
moving south at 10 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Daphne and Fairhope.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3051 8792 3055 8790 3057 8790 3058 8791
      3062 8791 3063 8792 3064 8792 3067 8783
      3052 8775 3049 8792
TIME...MOT...LOC 1839Z 356DEG 8KT 3061 8787

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
204 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019

ALZ263-021930-
Mobile Central AL-
204 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...WEST
CENTRAL MOBILE COUNTY UNTIL 230 PM CDT...

At 204 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 4 miles southeast
of Tanner Williams, or 10 miles northwest of Tillmans Corner, moving
east at 5 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Tanner Williams and Mobile Regional Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3064 8838 3075 8838 3075 8818 3063 8821
TIME...MOT...LOC 1904Z 269DEG 5KT 3068 8832

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
227 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019

FLZ205-206-022000-
Okaloosa Inland FL-Okaloosa Coastal FL-
227 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...SOUTH
CENTRAL OKALOOSA COUNTY UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

At 227 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located over Eglin AFB,
moving southwest at 10 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Wright, Fort Walton Beach, Eglin AFB, Ocean City, Lake Lorraine,
Shalimar and Cinco Bayou.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3047 8672 3060 8660 3049 8649 3043 8657
      3043 8659 3045 8659 3046 8660 3045 8660
      3043 8661 3042 8659 3041 8660
TIME...MOT...LOC 1927Z 041DEG 7KT 3049 8659

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
339 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019

ALZ262-022115-
Baldwin Inland AL-
339 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMs WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
NORTHWESTERN BALDWIN COUNTY UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

At 338 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles east of
Stockton, or 8 miles north of Bay Minette. This storm was nearly
stationary. Other strong storms were developing near Latham and
Tensaw.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with these storm.

Locations impacted include...
Stockton and I65 And AL 225.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3094 8783 3094 8788 3095 8787 3097 8789
      3098 8787 3099 8787 3099 8789 3100 8790
      3103 8789 3103 8790 3118 8782 3118 8762
      3092 8763
TIME...MOT...LOC 2038Z 053DEG 2KT 3100 8773

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
459 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019

ALZ052-053-022245-
Clarke AL-Washington AL-
459 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON AND CENTRAL CLARKE COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM
CDT...

At 459 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located over Saint
Stephens, or 7 miles west of Jackson, moving southwest at 10 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Jackson, Saint Stephens, Wagarville and Leroy.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3174 8802 3169 8770 3132 8792 3143 8825
TIME...MOT...LOC 2159Z 022DEG 10KT 3155 8801