Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1236 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2019

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z issuance...Isolated to scattered tsra popping up over the
interior at 18Z, but void of activity at TAF sites. Expect more
convective development thru the remainder of the afternoon and
have added mention of tsra in the vcty of MOB/BFM by and after
01.20Z. Away from convection, winds light with cig bases above 3
kft. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1028 AM CDT Thu Aug 1 2019/

DISCUSSION...See updated information for land areas below.

UPDATE...Opening up the first day of August, the upper level geo-
potential height field has changed little over the past 24hrs.
Upper trof was draped from the New England states southward where
it intersects an upper low about 200 miles south of Dauphin Isl.
To the west of the mean trof position, axis of amplified upper
ridge was centered over north TX. Clusters of cold cloud
tops/pockets of lightning were observed from southwest MO to LA,
initiated by mid-level impulses dropping south southeast between
the two features. Deep layer moisture has increased a bit with
PWAT values ranging from 1.6 to 1.8 inches. With better
environmental moisture, mid-level impulses will continue south
southeast over the area bringing about a bit better forcing for
increased coverage of showers and storms during the heat and
instability of the day than seen the past several days. The latest
high resolution convection allowing models also support better
coverage today and this is currently advertised in latest
forecast. High cape/low shear environment suggests pulse type
storms which could be strong at times. Main threats in the
strongest storms are wind gusts in excess of 40 mph and frequent
lightning. /10

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 652 AM CDT Thu Aug 1 2019/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
12Z issuance...Mostly VFR conditions through 02.12z, Could see
brief periods of MVFR cigs and visibilities mainly in and around
scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and early this
evening. A few isolated showers will also be possible early today
mainly near the coast and offshore. Winds will be light and
variable early today becoming mostly south to southwest at 6 to 10
knots this afternoon through early this evening then light and
variable later this evening and overnight. Expect higher wind
gusts also near isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
mostly this afternoon through early this evening. 32/ee

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 434 AM CDT Thu Aug 1 2019/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Thursday night/...Expect better coverage
of showers and thunderstorms across most locations of the
forecast area today and early tonight as main upper trof that has
persisted across much of the eastern conus and north central Gulf
coast region begins to re-dig early today leading to better lift
or forcing in the mid levels approaching from the north later this
morning continuing through this evening. With moderate surface
based instability, mid level lapse rates climbing to around 6.0
c/km combined with sufficient moisture in the boundary layer,
pwats around 1.8 inches, scattered to occasionally numerous
showers and thunderstorms can be expected across most inland areas
of the forecast area this afternoon and early this evening. Most
of the model guidance depict the best chance for measurable rain
generally along and west of the I-65 corridor due to the better
lift approaching from the NNW. Most of the hi res data also show
isolated coverage of the showers and thunderstorms forming near
the coast and offshore early today before transitioning inland due
to better heating and surface based instability. Latest wet
microburst check list shows a moderate chance for wet microbursts
with some of the stronger thunderstorms this afternoon. Gusty
straightline winds, frequent cloud to ground lightning and very
heavy rainfall will accompany the stronger storms.

Temperatures will climb to near or slightly above seasonal norms
today, a tad cooler compared to yesterday, due to better clouds and
coverage of rain though heat index levels will also be higher due to
higher humidity levels near the surface. Highs today will range from
mid to upper 90s for most inland areas and the upper 80s to near 90
along the immediate coast. Lows tonight will be near seasonal levels
ranging from the upper 60s to lower 70s for most inland areas and
the mid to upper 70s to near 80 along the immediate coast. 32/ee

SHORT TERM /Friday Through Saturday night/...
A persistent synopic pattern leaves Alabama and the surrounding
states beneath an upper level trough pinned between a ridge over the
four corners and the Bermuda Ridge. This upper trough provides
little to no forcing but does maintain the relatively moist regime
over the Gulf Coast to start the weekend. Precipitable water values
around 1.80-1.90 inches Friday coupled with temperatures expected to
reach the low 90s should be enough for isolated to scattered
afternoon convection. MLCAPE values range between 1500-2000 J/kg and
as such storms that do form may be strong and produce gusty winds.
These storms will be highly diurnally driven and should slowly
dissipate towards the early evening hours. Then dew points in the
low 70s help prop up overnight minimum temps which will also be in
the low 70s.

On Saturday, a slight weakening of the overhead trough shifts the
axis northwestward. This is an atmospheric response to low pressure
system over Oklahoma. Locally this shift could move the location of
heaviest convection and most likely PoPs towards the interior
counties though overall isolated to scattered showers are still
forecast for the central Gulf Coast region. DJ/17

LONG TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/...
Little changes in the overarching synoptic regime for the long term
as the quasi stationary upper level trough stays pinned over he
central Gulf Coast. Chance PoPs continue Sunday as moisture advected
in from the western Gulf supports the development of afternoon
showers and thunderstorms. Late in the weekend and into early next
week a series of short wave impulses over the Great Lakes region
serve to strengthen the overhead trough. This channeling of
moisture maintains rain chances each day. The trough then shifts
eastward slightly by the middle of next week which could locally
enhance convection along the coastline Wednesday. However much
uncertainty exists as this forecast is dependent on the long range
models accurately resolving the timing and strength of the
aforementioned shortwaves. Relief in daily temperatures is not
expected this week as highs will consistently be in the 90s each day
before returning to the low 70s overnight. DJ/17

MARINE...
Surface high pressure over the north central Gulf will
continue to slowly weaken through much of the week. A better onshore
flow can be expected on Fri continuing through early next week.
Better coverage of showers and thunderstorms will also be likely Fri
through early next week. 32/ee

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mobile AL
425 AM CDT Thu Aug 1 2019

ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-020930-
Choctaw-Washington-Clarke-Wilcox-Monroe-Conecuh-Butler-Crenshaw-
Escambia-Covington-Mobile Inland-Baldwin Inland-Mobile Central-
Baldwin Central-Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Inland-
Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Inland-Santa Rosa Coastal-
Okaloosa Inland-Okaloosa Coastal-Wayne-Perry-Greene-Stone-George-
425 AM CDT Thu Aug 1 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Alabama...southwest Alabama...northwest Florida and southeast
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A few strong thunderstorms will be possible today generally over
inland areas well north of the coast late this afternoon through
early this evening. Gusty straight line winds and frequent cloud
to ground lightning will be the main threats with the stronger
storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Wednesday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of SkyWarn severe spotter networks is not expected
through Wednesday.

GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675-020930-
Northern Mobile Bay-Southern Mobile Bay-Mississippi Sound-
Perdido Bay-Pensacola Bay System-Western Choctawhatchee Bay-
Eastern Choctawhatchee Bay-
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola
FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL from
20 to 60 NM-
425 AM CDT Thu Aug 1 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the coastal
waters of Alabama and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Wednesday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
151 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2019

ALZ053>055-011915-
Wilcox AL-Clarke AL-Monroe AL-
151 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...NORTH
CENTRAL MONROE...NORTHEASTERN CLARKE AND SOUTHWESTERN WILCOX COUNTIES
UNTIL 215 PM CDT...

At 151 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles east of
Fulton, or 11 miles southeast of Thomasville, moving northeast at 5
mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Fulton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3163 8769 3182 8780 3195 8753 3176 8742
TIME...MOT...LOC 1851Z 239DEG 6KT 3180 8759

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
207 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2019

ALZ053-054-011930-
Wilcox AL-Clarke AL-
207 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
NORTHEASTERN CLARKE AND SOUTHWESTERN WILCOX COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM
CDT...

At 206 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located over Thomasville.
This storm was nearly stationary.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Thomasville and Fulton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3179 8755 3176 8780 3193 8787 3199 8775
      3199 8767 3200 8766 3200 8764
TIME...MOT...LOC 1906Z 250DEG 3KT 3187 8776

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
213 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2019

ALZ053>055-011945-
Wilcox AL-Clarke AL-Monroe AL-
213 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...NORTH
CENTRAL MONROE...NORTHEASTERN CLARKE AND SOUTH CENTRAL WILCOX
COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM CDT...

At 213 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 8 miles west of
Vredenburgh, or 16 miles southwest of Camden. This storm was nearly
stationary.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Vredenburgh.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3169 8751 3186 8758 3197 8737 3172 8726
TIME...MOT...LOC 1913Z 250DEG 3KT 3181 8747