Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
333 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Saturday/...A trough axis extending from the
surface to the mid levels will continue to shift west over the next
24 hours. Moisture levels increase on the east side of the trough
across our region with precipitable waters rising to 1.8-2.0" on
Saturday. Scattered storms are developing this afternoon over
eastern portions of the area which are along and to the east of the
trough axis. Scattered storms will continue to develop through the
rest of the afternoon. Convection will begin to diminish by sunset
across land areas as instability decreases. However, with a deep
layer southeast flow developing tonight along with increasing
tropical moisture, scattered storms are likely to develop across the
Gulf waters overnight into the early morning hours, likely affecting
areas along and south of I-10 Saturday morning. Storms will become
scattered to numerous late morning into the afternoon across much of
the region as MLCAPES rise to 1500-2000 J/kg. A few storms could
become strong with gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall.

The increase in cloud cover and rain chances will result in high
temperatures lower than what we have seen the past several days.
Seasonal high temps in the upper 80s to lower 90s can be expected.
34/JFB

.SHORT TERM /Saturday night Through Monday night/...Will start the
short term with an inverted trof axis aligned over the western
Gulf Saturday night. This feature migrates west into TX Sunday on
the southern periphery of a strong, deep layer ridge over the
central High Plains. As this feature increases its distance from
the local area, there is excellent agreement in the global
spectral guidance in developing a narrow mid level ridge from the
eastern Gulf up across the Mid MS River Valley Monday. Will carry
a chance of storms on Sunday as the region will continue to be in
a zone of deep moisture coming up from the Gulf on the east side
of departing trof combined with daytime instability. High
instability and low shear so an ordinary/pulse type summer cell
convective mode is anticipated Sunday. Some of these storms do
have the capability of producing brief strong to perhaps localized
instances of damaging wind gusts. This following the collapse of
any of the more defined storm cores that have the ability to reach
the -20C layer (~25 to 26 kft) during the mature convective
stage. With upper ridge beginning to build aloft on Monday, storm
chances lower to 20%.

Daytime highs Sunday in the lower to mid 90s interior to upper 80s
coast, trend higher by Monday. Daily heat indices progressively
higher with each day. Highest gridded values from 102 to 105
Sunday afternoon expand in coverage Monday and slightly warmer.
Overnight lows remain warm and muggy. /10

.LONG TERM /Tuesday Through Friday/...Heat next week brings the
main impacts. Upper ridge amplifies going into the middle of the
week supporting hot days and potentially more oppressive heat
index values with a few areas possibly approaching 110 degree mark
each day. Will be a good idea to review heat safety tips. Any
relief from the heat will come from isolated to perhaps scattered
storms. /10

&&

.MARINE...A surface trough will move west of the marine area
tonight, resulting in generally light east to southeast winds. A
light southeast flow is expected to persist through the weekend.
High pressure will build over the southern Gulf and shift into the
west central Gulf by early next week, resulting in winds becoming
more westerly and staying generally light. Seas will be in the 1-2
ft range for the majority of the forecast, building to near 3 ft
offshore for a brief period of time on Tuesday in response to a
slightly stronger westerly flow.

Storm coverage will be scattered to numerous over the weekend,
especially in the early morning hours. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      72  90  72  92  73  95  74  96 /  30  60  30  40  10  10  10  20
Pensacola   75  89  76  89  76  92  78  94 /  40  60  30  40  10  20  10  30
Destin      78  87  77  88  78  90  80  91 /  40  60  30  30  20  20  10  20
Evergreen   71  92  72  93  73  97  75  98 /  30  60  30  40  20  20  10  30
Waynesboro  69  91  71  91  71  93  73  95 /  30  50  30  30  20  20  10  30
Camden      70  92  72  93  73  95  74  96 /  30  60  30  30  20  20  10  30
Crestview   72  91  72  92  73  95  74  97 /  30  60  30  40  10  20  10  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

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