Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
240 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Friday/...During the period, an
ongoing mesoscale convective complex over northern MS is
propagating\being advected southward in the mean wind flow and
will likley affect our northwest counties late this afternoon. It
would be moving into a region of MLCAPEs AOA 3500 J/kg. There is
enough dry air in the sounding to sustain strong cold pools in any
associated outflow. Consensus is this feature will at least make
it into our northwest counties by 6 PM and will decay thereafter,
but its associated remnants will move through our area through
early evening and then further offshore after. Rain chances will
be greatest west of the Tombigbee river. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will be ongoing through the afternoon prior to the
arrival of this feature, namely after 5 PM. Synoptically, an upper
PV anomaly situated in a break between two deep ridges (one over
W Atlantic and another nosing eastward from the Plains) will
support the continued development of a weak inverted pressure
trough that will further develop, slowly drift WWD and increase
rain chances over the next day. At the surface the feature becomes
somewhat pronounced around sunrise over the Central GlfMex. As
the feature drifts further westward during the day tomorrow, winds
finally become south and rain chances increase from south to
north as layer lift and deep rising motion develops. Rain chances
tomorrow are greatest along and south of Highway 84, especially
closer to the coast and southwest of an Evergreen to Destin line.
Overnight Lows will range from the upper 60s over the northwest
counties to the mid 70s along the beaches. Winds will be very
light northerly. Tomorrow afternoon's highs will range from near
90 degrees along the coast to lower 90s inland. /23 JMM

.SHORT TERM /Friday night Through Sunday night/...A weak inverted
trof over the Lower MS River Valley Friday night is pushed
westward across Louisiana and east Texas Saturday on the southern
periphery of a strong mid level ridge over the central Plains.
The trof axis continues to migrate westward over TX into the
Sunday. Between the westward moving trof and a long-wave upper
trof diving southeast off the northeast US coast, a general
weakness in the geo-potential height field aloft holds over the
southeast.

Surface heating both Saturday and Sunday results in decreasing
stability and coupled with more than sufficient deep layer
moisture (PWATs 1.6 to 1.8 inches), the formation of scattered
coverages of showers and thunderstorms to develop across the
forecast area, mainly during the afternoon hours is expected. A
few strong thunderstorms with gusty surface winds possible.
Showers and storms linger into the evening hours and dissipate
over the interior after midnight each night. A few showers and
storms may linger past midnight along the coastal sections.

High temperatures both Saturday and Sunday will be near to
slightly above normal with lower to mid 90s inland areas. About
seasonal in the mid to upper 80s along the immediate coastal
sections. A gradual up-tick in afternoon heat indices by Sunday
with gridded numbers showing a range from 101 to 104 degrees for
many areas then. Low temperatures through the period will be near
normal, with lower 70s inland areas, and mid to upper 70s along
the immediate coast. /10

.LONG TERM /Monday Through Thursday/...Going into next week, the
global spectral models indicate an amplification in the height
field aloft with a strong upper ridge of high pressure building
over the southeast US. Considering this ridge bringing about a
larger contribution to subsidence favors a decreased coverage of
showers and storms early next week. Will maintain a chance of
showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday, but there are
indications that the deep layer ridge may persist enough as to
require a lower adjustment to PoPs late in the long term.

Highs trend up next week, ranging from 92 to 97 degrees inland
areas with upper 80s to lower 90s along the immediate coastal
sections. Afternoon heat indices will also be on the increase as
well with values increasing to 102 to perhaps near 107 degrees.
Lows typically in the low to mid 70s inland areas, and ranging 77
to 81 along the immediate coast. /10

&&

.MARINE...A weak trough of surface low pressure slips westward
over the northern Gulf Friday and west into Louisiana Saturday
while weakening. Winds shift to easterly Friday and then
southeasterly as the surface trough moves west and surface high
pressure builds into the eastern Gulf. Westerly flow then sets up
early next week as high pressure continues to build west into the
central Gulf. Little change in seas expected, remaining 1 to 2
feet through the period. Showers and thunderstorms remain possible
throughout much of the forecast period and will pose a threat to
mariner safety by way of locally higher winds, waves, seas and
frequent lightning activity. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      71  92  72  90  73  91  73  93 /  30  50  40  50  20  40  10  10
Pensacola   77  89  76  88  76  89  76  91 /  20  50  40  40  20  50  10  10
Destin      78  88  78  87  78  87  78  89 /  20  40  40  40  30  40  20  20
Evergreen   71  93  72  92  72  94  73  95 /  20  30  40  40  30  40  10  20
Waynesboro  69  91  70  90  70  91  72  93 /  40  30  30  40  20  50  10  20
Camden      70  93  71  92  72  93  73  95 /  20  30  30  40  20  40  10  30
Crestview   72  92  72  91  72  92  73  94 /  20  40  40  40  30  40  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
311 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-282100-
Choctaw-Washington-Clarke-Wilcox-Monroe-Conecuh-Butler-Crenshaw-
Escambia-Covington-Mobile Inland-Baldwin Inland-Mobile Central-
Baldwin Central-Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Inland-
Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Inland-Santa Rosa Coastal-
Okaloosa Inland-Okaloosa Coastal-Wayne-Perry-Greene-Stone-George-
311 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Alabama,
southwest Alabama, northwest Florida and southeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected across this afternoon and
perhaps lingering into the evening. A few could become strong enough
to produce locally damaging winds in addition to frequent lightning
and heavy downpours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Scattered thunderstorms into the weekend could become strong enough
to produce locally damaging winds in addition to frequent lightning
and heavy downpours.

Afternoon heat indices will also be on the increase going into Sunday
and continuing into Wednesday. Highest heat indices Monday through
Wednesday, ranging 102 to perhaps near 107 degrees.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675-282100-
Northern Mobile Bay-Southern Mobile Bay-Mississippi Sound-
Perdido Bay-Pensacola Bay System-Western Choctawhatchee Bay-
Eastern Choctawhatchee Bay-
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL
out 20 NM-Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL from
20 to 60 NM-
311 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the coastal waters of Alabama
and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms will pose a threat to mariner safety by way of locally
higher winds, waves, seas and frequent lightning activity.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Thunderstorms will pose a threat to mariner safety by way of locally
higher winds, waves, seas and frequent lightning activity through
Sunday. Storms look to decrease in coverage by early next week.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
332 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

ALZ059-FLZ201>204-272115-
Escambia AL-Escambia Inland FL-Santa Rosa Coastal FL-
Escambia Coastal FL-Santa Rosa Inland FL-
332 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...SOUTH
CENTRAL ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA AND CENTRAL ESCAMBIA COUNTIES UNTIL 415
PM CDT...

At 332 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 6 miles northeast
of Molino, or 13 miles south of Century, moving south at 15 mph.

Wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Pensacola, Ferry Pass, Brent, West Pensacola, Ensley, Gonzalez, Pace,
Milton, Gulf Breeze, Goulding, Century, Flomaton, Bagdad, Myrtle
Grove, Oriole Beach, Navarre, East Brewton, Molino, Jay and Pollard.

LAT...LON 3109 8738 3111 8692 3041 8684 3034 8718
      3036 8720 3044 8688 3060 8702 3057 8700
      3044 8709 3058 8718 3043 8717 3037 8732
      3037 8726 3032 8726 3032 8733
TIME...MOT...LOC 2032Z 005DEG 13KT 3078 8722

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
342 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

ALZ051-272130-
Choctaw AL-
342 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...NORTHERN CHOCTAW COUNTY UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

At 340 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorms were located just north of
Choctaw County and moving southwest at 25 mph.

Wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph will be possible with these storms witin
the next hour to 90 minutes.

Locations impacted include...
Lisman and Pennington.

LAT...LON 3231 8793 3228 8793 3230 8794 3230 8800
      3228 8801 3228 8802 3227 8802 3226 8801
      3218 8801 3215 8802 3214 8804 3212 8805
      3206 8845 3231 8842
TIME...MOT...LOC 2040Z 032DEG 21KT 3242 8950 3237 8855 3274 8740

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
413 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

ALZ059-264-266-FLZ201>204-272215-
Baldwin Coastal AL-Baldwin Central AL-Escambia AL-Escambia Inland FL-
Santa Rosa Coastal FL-Escambia Coastal FL-Santa Rosa Inland FL-
413 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...EAST
CENTRAL BALDWIN...SOUTHERN ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA AND ESCAMBIA
COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

At 413 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located over Ensley,
moving south at 15 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Pensacola, Ferry Pass, Brent, West Pensacola, Ensley, Warrington,
Gonzalez, Pace, Milton, Gulf Breeze, Brewton, Goulding, Century,
Flomaton, Bagdad, Lillian, Myrtle Grove, Oriole Beach, Navarre and
East Brewton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3040 8743 3043 8734 3044 8734 3047 8742
      3044 8739 3040 8744 3040 8745 3120 8742
      3117 8688 3041 8682 3039 8692 3038 8691
      3039 8682 3038 8682 3032 8729 3034 8731
      3030 8744
TIME...MOT...LOC 2113Z 007DEG 14KT 3053 8730

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
429 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

ALZ051-053-272215-
Clarke AL-Choctaw AL-
429 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...CENTRAL
CHOCTAW AND NORTHWESTERN CLARKE COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

At 428 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located over Butler,
moving south at 10 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Butler and Toxey.

LAT...LON 3218 8807 3208 8805 3206 8807 3207 8808
      3207 8810 3206 8812 3202 8812 3199 8810
      3201 8809 3199 8807 3199 8803 3187 8800
      3185 8832 3217 8828
TIME...MOT...LOC 2128Z 356DEG 9KT 3208 8818