Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
438 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2019

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Sunday/...The biggest concern will be the return of dense sea fog
moving inland overnight as southerly surface winds advect dewpoints
in the upper 60s to lower 70s over near shore gulf water temps in
the low to mid 60s. Surface observations along the coast and a few
select webcams showing beaches and a few coastal communities with
reduced visibilities as low as one-half mile. A Dense Fog Advisory
for the marine areas is already in effect, or will be in effect
early this evening, and Dense Fog Advisories will likley be needed
over land areas later tonight. Uncertainty remains though as to how
far inland an advisory will be needed, but the latest SREF
visibility probabilities suggest as far north as Highway 84.
Otherwise, showers and thunderstorms along and north of Highway 84
will increase in coverage through the remainder of this afternoon,
and linger through mid evening before moving north of the forecast
area. A few of the thunderstorms may produce pea-size hail. The
patchy to areas of fog will dissipate through mid morning, followed
by mainly dry weather conditions through the mid afternoon hours.
Isolated to low-end scattered showers will then develop late in the
afternoon, mainly west of the Tombigbee River, as maximum surface
heating occurs. /22

.SHORT TERM /Sunday night Through Tuesday night/...Widespread showers
with embedded thunderstorms are expected Sunday night into Monday.
Some inconsistencies between spectral models exist with the GFS
wanting to close off the approaching upper level wave and trending
toward a cold core low which greatly slows its eastward advancement.
The ECMWF closes it off briefly Sunday night over Texas and then opens
it up into an open wave as it approaches the southern Mississippi Valley
late Sunday night allowing it a much faster eastward progression.  The
operational GFS trended slower than many of its ensemble members and
the ensemble mean so leaned more toward the ECMWF timing.

The region will lie in a broad warm sector Sunday night with a split
upper level jet over the area.  The southern stream will lie over the
Gulf of Mexico with southwest to westerly winds while the northern
stream will lie west and north of the area with south to southwesterly
winds and shift eastward from Texas into the southern Mississippi
Valley late Sunday night.  PWATS over the area will remain high
ranging from 1.5" to near 1.7" through Monday.  Strongest dynamics and
lift appear to remain generally north and south of the area but enough
forcing for ascent with the approaching frontal system to generate
widespread showers over the area Sunday night through Monday.  The
greatest instability is projected over Southeast MS tomorrow night
under favorable vertical shear so will continue the marginal risk for
severe weather there.  The greatest threat will be for isolated damaging
wind gusts and quarter size hail Monday night.  Will also continue
the potential for a marginal risk for Monday afternoon into the evening
just in case the slower GFS solution proves correct with a slow moving
developing cold core low aloft possibly moving over the region.  Expect
the thunderstorm coverage and intensity to wane Monday night and
gradually shift east of our area Tuesday. /08

.LONG TERM /Wednesday Through Saturday/...In the wake of the frontal
system and deep upper level trough, high pressure builds into the area
bringing an end to precipitation and providing mostly clear skies
through Thursday.  Another frontal system is expected to approach the
area Thursday with frontal passage Thursday night.  Models diverge on
the projection and impacts of this feature as well with the ECMWF
projecting a band of precipitation along and ahead of the cold front
Thursday night into Friday.  While the GFS keeps the main dynamics well
north, projecting a dry forecast.  Confidence remains low with this
feature so only introduced a slight chance of rain showers at
this time. /08

&&

.MARINE...A light to moderate south to southeasterly flow will
persist through Monday, with areas of dense fog at times. The winds
will increase and become more southwest and west Monday night
through Tuesday as a front approaches the marine area from the west.
The front will likely move east across the marine area late Tuesday,
with winds briefly becoming light to moderate northwesterly in its
wake. A quick return to a light to moderate onshore flow redevelops
by Wednesday. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      67  80  66  78  61  80  58  82 /  10  20  60  70  30  10  10   0
Pensacola   68  77  66  77  63  78  61  80 /  10  10  40  60  30  20  10  10
Destin      68  76  65  74  64  75  62  76 /  10  10  30  60  30  20  10  10
Evergreen   67  83  65  81  61  80  57  83 /  20  10  40  70  40  20  10  10
Waynesboro  65  80  64  79  59  78  55  84 /  30  20  70  70  40  10  10   0
Camden      64  83  65  78  61  78  56  83 /  50  20  50  70  40  30  10   0
Crestview   65  82  64  80  61  80  58  82 /  10  10  30  70  30  20  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Sunday for
     GMZ633>636-655.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ630>632-650.

&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mobile AL
554 AM CDT Sat Apr 6 2019

ALZ051>060-261>264-FLZ201-203-205-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-071100-
Choctaw-Washington-Clarke-Wilcox-Monroe-Conecuh-Butler-Crenshaw-
Escambia-Covington-Mobile Inland-Baldwin Inland-Mobile Central-
Baldwin Central-Escambia Inland-Santa Rosa Inland-Okaloosa Inland-
Wayne-Perry-Greene-Stone-George-
554 AM CDT Sat Apr 6 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Alabama...southwest Alabama...northwest Florida and southeast
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a Marginal Risk of severe storms over the northern half of
the area this afternoon and early evening. Damaging wind gusts will
be the primary threats from any strong to severe storms that develop.

There is a moderate risk for rip currents along the Gulf beaches of Alabama
and northwest Florida through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms on Sunday, mainly late, for interior
southeast Mississippi and a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms is expected for
parts of southwest Alabama. Damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado possible.
There is also a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across the entire area on Monday.

A moderate risk for rip currents continues along the Gulf beaches of Alabama
and northwest Florida through Sunday through Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of SkyWarn severe spotter networks is not expected through tonight.

ALZ265-266-FLZ202-204-206-071100-
Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Coastal-
Santa Rosa Coastal-Okaloosa Coastal-
554 AM CDT Sat Apr 6 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Alabama and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a moderate risk for rip currents along the Gulf beaches of Alabama
and northwest Florida through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

There is a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms late on Sunday, mainly for areas
west of Mobile Bay (Mobile county). Damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief
tornado possible. There is also a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across
the entire area on Monday.

A moderate risk for rip currents continues along the Gulf beaches of Alabama
and northwest Florida through Sunday through Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of SkyWarn severe spotter networks is not expected through tonight.

GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675-071100-
Northern Mobile Bay-Southern Mobile Bay-Mississippi Sound-
Perdido Bay-Pensacola Bay System-Western Choctawhatchee Bay-
Eastern Choctawhatchee Bay-
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola
FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL from
20 to 60 NM-
554 AM CDT Sat Apr 6 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the coastal
waters of Alabama and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Some patchy dense fog near shore and over bays and inland waterways early
this morning and again tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Winds and seas may create hazardous conditions for small craft, especially
over the Gulf waters, from late Sunday through late Tuesday.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
424 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2019

ALZ057-058-062200-
Butler AL-Crenshaw AL-
424 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
SOUTHEASTERN BUTLER AND WEST CENTRAL CRENSHAW COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM
CDT...

At 424 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 5 miles northeast
of McKenzie, or 17 miles south of Greenville, moving northeast at 10
mph.

Dime size hail and winds gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Butler
and west central Crenshaw Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3152 8656 3152 8666 3156 8675 3179 8663
      3165 8629
TIME...MOT...LOC 2124Z 222DEG 9KT 3157 8663

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
447 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2019

ALZ056-057-062215-
Conecuh AL-Butler AL-
447 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
SOUTHWESTERN BUTLER AND NORTH CENTRAL CONECUH COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM
CDT...

At 446 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 10 miles west of
Georgiana, or 11 miles north of Evergreen, moving north at 15 mph.

Dime size hail and winds gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Rural locations in northern Conecuh and southwestern Butler counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3152 8688 3159 8700 3171 8701 3175 8692
      3167 8669
TIME...MOT...LOC 2146Z 192DEG 13KT 3160 8692