Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
916 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2019

.DISCUSSION...See updated information for land areas below.

&&

.UPDATE...Clusters of convection has been steadily moving
southeast over the heart of the forecast area this evening. Some
of the storms were strong to locally severe, with history of
producing nickel to quarter size hail respectively. Any severe
storms late this evening look to be isolated with the main threat
being hail up to around a quarter size or so. Given the isolated
coverage, severe thunderstorm watch 34 has been allowed to expire
at 9 PM and headlines have been removed from zones. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 625 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2019/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
00Z issuance...Isolated to scattered convection was dropping
southeast across central and western Alabama this evening. Main
impacts from convection appear to be over the far northern zones
this evening. Front makes passage this evening bringing wind
shift. Scattered to perhaps broken cigs ranging from 3 to 5 kft.
Could see cigs down to MVFR categories by daybreak Tuesday. /10

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 502 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2019/

DISCUSSION...See updated information for land areas below.

UPDATE...Radar is showing isolated convective clusters dropping
southeast over central and western Alabama just north of our far
northern zones. Some of these storms have a history of producing
damaging winds and hail up to nickel to quarter size. Considering
convective trends and potential for isolated severe storms to
bring impacts this evening, the storm prediction center has issued
severe thunderstorm watch 34 in effect thru 9 PM CDT for much of
the interior. Zones have been updated to reflect watch headlines.
/10

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 337 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2019/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Tuesday/....A cold front which has been
approaching from the west this afternoon will advance to just west
of the I-65 corridor by early this evening, then continues through
the remainder of the area during the rest of the evening.  Isolated
to scattered convection is expected at the beginning of the period
along/ahead of the front, coincident with MLCAPE values around 500
J/kg, which then diminishes early this evening with dry conditions
prevailing later this evening as instability dissipates.  While
shear values will be low, dry air will be present aloft with wet
bulb zero values near 9 kft.  This environment will maintain a low
end (primarily Marginal Risk) potential for severe storm development
through the early hours (until approximately 8 PM) with the main
threats from any severe storms that develop being wind gusts to 60
mph and hail up to quarter size. /29

SHORT TERM /Tuesday night Through Thursday night/...By late
tonight and early Tue the first of two mid level short wave trofs
will shift east of the forecast area followed by another vigorous
mid level impulse shifting SE from the mid MS river valley to the
north central gulf coast and forecast area through Tues night.
With the lack of sufficient moisture in the boundary layer no
significant precip is expected with this second round of forcing
Tue afternoon through early Wed with maybe an isolated shower or
two forming over extreme northeastern sections of the forecast
area generally around midnight Tue night. With this pattern most
clouds will begin to clear by after sunrise on Tue and continue
through midday followed by better cloudiness in the low to mid
levels generally moving in from the northwest Tue afternoon and
early Tue night before exiting to the east southeast late Tue
night into early wed as the second mid level system shifts east of
the forecast area by 12z Wed. For Wed through Thu night a sharp
mid to upper ridge of high pressure will shift east over the north
central gulf coast region leading to mostly clear skies with lower
humidity levels. Surface temps will be cooler than seasonal norms
on Tue and Tue night then slowly rebound to near seasonal levels
through Thu night.

LONG TERM /Friday Through Monday/...By early Fri the upper ridge
will begin to shift east of the forecast area in response to a weak
mid level short wave tracking eastward over the northern gulf
states. Most of the longer range guidance continues to show little
to no significant precip with this weak system Fri through early
Sat. By late Sat into Sun better rain chances can be expected in
response to a much deeper long wave trof and surface cold front
approaching from the west. With plenty of mid level forcing for
most locations along the northern gulf coast, sufficient moisture
in the boundary layer due to a deeper onshore flow by the weekend
combined with moderate instability near the surface better
coverage of showers and thunderstorms can be expected. With the
better instability combined with increased directional shear by
late Sat into Sat night the threat for a few strong thunderstorms
will be possible. As a result this system will have to monitored
closely later in the week. By midday Sun the surface cold front
will move across the region with plenty of residual moisture
mostly in the form of low stratus in the wake front Sun afternoon
and Sun night. The main upper trof axis will eventually clear the
region to the east on Mon leading to mostly sunny skies with
cooler temps Mon and Mon night. 32/ee

MARINE...A moderate southwesterly flow will continue over the
marine area through this evening ahead of a cold front approaching
from the northwest. A moderate northerly flow is expected in the wake
of the front late tonight through Tue increasing Tue night into
early Wed as cooler air continues to move south across much of
the northern Gulf. A light to moderate east to southeast wind flow
is expected late in the week as a broad surface ridge of high
pressure to the north shifts east to the eastern seaboard. With
this pattern small craft will have to exercise caution late
tonight and through early Wed mostly over the open gulf waters out
to 60 nm including the lower end of Mobile Bay and the MS Sound
east of Pascagoula. 32/ee

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1214 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2019

ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-261715-
Choctaw-Washington-Clarke-Wilcox-Monroe-Conecuh-Butler-Crenshaw-
Escambia-Covington-Mobile Inland-Baldwin Inland-Mobile Central-
Baldwin Central-Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Inland-
Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Inland-Santa Rosa Coastal-
Okaloosa Inland-Okaloosa Coastal-Wayne-Perry-Greene-Stone-George-
1214 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Alabama,
southwest Alabama, northwest Florida and southeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

From mid afternoon through the early evening, there is a slight risk
of severe storms along and north of a line from Greenville to Grove
Hill to Butler, Alabama. A Marginal risk of severe storms continues
elsewhere. Any severe storms that develop will produce winds up to
60 mph and hail up to quarter size.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents along area beaches beginning
tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

A moderate risk of rip currents continues along area beaches through
Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675-261715-
Northern Mobile Bay-Southern Mobile Bay-Mississippi Sound-
Perdido Bay-Pensacola Bay System-Western Choctawhatchee Bay-
Eastern Choctawhatchee Bay-
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL
out 20 NM-Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL from
20 to 60 NM-
1214 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the coastal waters of Alabama
and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

A moderate offshore flow developing tonight may bring hazards to
smaller marine craft.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

A moderate offshore flow continues through Wednesday and may bring
hazards to smaller marine craft.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
830 PM CDT MON MAR 25 2019

ALZ057-058-060-260215-
Butler AL-Covington AL-Crenshaw AL-
830 PM CDT MON MAR 25 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
SOUTHEASTERN BUTLER...SOUTHERN CRENSHAW AND NORTHEASTERN COVINGTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM CDT...

At 830 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located over Georgiana, or
15 miles south of Greenville, moving southeast at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible
with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Opp, Georgiana, McKenzie, Dozier and Gantt.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
south central Alabama.

LAT...LON 3159 8680 3171 8674 3153 8619 3124 8620
TIME...MOT...LOC 0130Z 297DEG 35KT 3162 8670

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
837 PM CDT MON MAR 25 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     HAIL             2 WSW GROVE HILL        31.70N 87.80W
03/25/2019  E1.00 INCH       CLARKE             AL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTS QUARTER SIZED HAIL.
            REPORT VIA SPOTTER NETWORK AND TIME
            ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

BB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
851 PM CDT MON MAR 25 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0837 PM     HAIL             FRISCO CITY             31.43N 87.40W
03/25/2019  E0.70 INCH       MONROE             AL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            PICTURE REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA OF DIME
            SIZED HAIL. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

BB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
857 PM CDT MON MAR 25 2019

ALZ056-059-260300-
Conecuh AL-Escambia AL-
857 PM CDT MON MAR 25 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...EASTERN
ESCAMBIA AND SOUTHERN CONECUH COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM CDT...

At 857 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 5 miles southeast
of Repton, or 13 miles southeast of Frisco City, moving southeast at
40 mph.

Dime size hail and winds gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Castleberry and Repton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
south central Alabama.

LAT...LON 3100 8691 3133 8734 3144 8721 3121 8670
      3100 8670
TIME...MOT...LOC 0157Z 303DEG 35KT 3134 8719

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
859 PM CDT MON MAR 25 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0839 PM     HAIL             2 N EXCEL               31.46N 87.35W
03/25/2019  E1.00 INCH       MONROE             AL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            MULTIPLE REPORTS OF QUARTER SIZED HAIL NEAR
            FRISCO CITY, EXCEL, AND THE MONROE COUNTY
            AIRPORT. REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

BB

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