Small Craft Advisory 38, NWS Mobile, AL

107 
WHUS74 KMOB 191547
MWWMOB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1047 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019

GMZ650-655-670-675-200000-
/O.CON.KMOB.SC.Y.0038.000000T0000Z-191020T0000Z/
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola
FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL from
20 to 60 NM-
1047 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...Northerly winds 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES/SEAS...8 to 12 feet subsiding to 5 to 7 feet by late 
  afternoon. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds or frequent gusts
of 20 to 33 knots and/or seas of 7 feet or higher are expected to
produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels should avoid
navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

825 
WHUS74 KMOB 192341
MWWMOB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mobile AL
641 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019

GMZ650-655-670-675-200045-
/O.EXP.KMOB.SC.Y.0038.000000T0000Z-191020T0000Z/
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola
FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL from
20 to 60 NM-
641 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

Latest marine observations indicate that winds and seas have 
fallen to below small craft advisory criteria. The advisory will
be allowed to expire at 7 PM. Small craft should exercise caution
for the remainder of the evening as seas are 4 to 6 feet and can 
remain problematic for safe navigation. Seas to gradually lower 
late in the night.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
633 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z issuance...Scattered showers will end this morning as Nestor
continues to move away from the region. MVFR to VFR ceilings will
continue through much of the period. /13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 421 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Saturday night/...Tropical Storm Nestor will
continue to move northeast and well away from the area through
this morning. This will end rain chances from west to east through
the morning with a drier airmass moving in for the afternoon. The
cloud shield will be slower to clear with gradual clearing by the
afternoon and evening. The High Surf Warning/Advisory remains in
effect through noon today and the High Rip current risk will
remain in effect through Sunday morning. The Coastal Flood
Advisory will expire at 7 am this morning. Highs today will be in
the low to mid 70s inland to upper 70s near the coast. Lows in the
mid and upper 50s inland to mid 60s along the coast. /13

SHORT TERM /Sunday Through Monday night/...A warm and mild day
anticipated Sunday. A southerly return flow develops Sunday as high
pressure from the western Atlantic ridges into the northern Gulf.
Minor ridging and dry air aloft will hinder chances for
precipitation. Temperatures are expected to rebound significantly
Sunday afternoon climbing into the low to mid 80s.  Overnight lows
Sunday night fall into the low to mid 60s in the interior in upper
60s to low 70s along the coast.

Showers and thunderstorms will develop across the area Monday ahead
of an approaching cold front.  Latest model runs show the stronger
dynamics shifting northeast of the area at this time.  However,
still enough instability along with favorable vertical shear and
forcing to produce strong to potentially severe thunderstorms with
the greatest threat likely being damaging straight line winds and
possibly a brief tornado or two. The cold front should push eastward
across and out of the forecast area Monday night with cooler, drier
air filtering in behind it. /08

LONG TERM /Tuesday Through Friday/...Lingering post frontal
precipitation should clear the forecast area from west to east
during the early morning to late morning time frame. Surface high
pressure to our north will keep a cool and dry northerly wind flow
over the area, with a generally zonal flow aloft and little chance
of precipitation through Wednesday. Surface winds become more
easterly on Thursday as surface high pressure along the Eastern
Seaboard ridges southward into the area. A moist return flow
develops on Friday and precipitation chances rise as another cold
front approaches the region. /08

MARINE...Offshore flow will decrease through the morning and become
westerly this morning as Tropical Storm Nestor moves away from the
region. Southerly flow develops tonight and continues through Monday
as a cold front approaches from the west. The cold front moves
through the marine area Monday night with northerly flow in its
wake. Easterly flow develops late in the week as high pressure moves
across the southeastern states. /13

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Warning until noon CDT today for ALZ266.

     High Surf Advisory until noon CDT today for ALZ265.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for FLZ202-204-206.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for FLZ202-
     204-206.

     High Surf Warning until noon CDT today for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ630>634-
     650-670.

     Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ635-636-655-675.

&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mobile AL
418 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019

ALZ266-200930-
Baldwin Coastal-
418 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019

...HIGH SURF WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FROM NOON CDT TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Alabama.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   High Surf Warning.
   High Rip Current Risk.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.

A strong cold front will move through the area Monday night. There
is a chance of a few strong to severe storms along the front.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ALZ265-200930-
Mobile Coastal-
418 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FROM NOON CDT TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Alabama.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   High Surf Advisory.
   High Rip Current Risk.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.

A strong cold front will move through the area Monday night. There
is a chance of a few strong to severe storms along the front.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ALZ051>060-261>264-FLZ201-203-205-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-200930-
Choctaw-Washington-Clarke-Wilcox-Monroe-Conecuh-Butler-Crenshaw-
Escambia-Covington-Mobile Inland-Baldwin Inland-Mobile Central-
Baldwin Central-Escambia Inland-Santa Rosa Inland-Okaloosa Inland-
Wayne-Perry-Greene-Stone-George-
418 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Alabama,
southwest Alabama, northwest Florida and southeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

A strong cold front will move through the area Monday night. There
is a chance of a few strong to severe storms along the front.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

FLZ202-204-206-200930-
Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Coastal-Okaloosa Coastal-
418 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019

...HIGH SURF WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FROM NOON CDT TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   Coastal Flood Advisory.
   High Surf Warning.
   High Rip Current Risk.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.

A strong cold front will move through the area Monday night. There
is a chance of a few strong to severe storms along the front.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

GMZ630>634-650-670-200930-
Northern Mobile Bay-Southern Mobile Bay-Mississippi Sound-
Perdido Bay-Pensacola Bay System-
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM-
Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
418 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the coastal waters of Alabama
and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

GMZ635-636-655-675-200930-
Western Choctawhatchee Bay-Eastern Choctawhatchee Bay-
Coastal waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL
out 20 NM-
Waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL from
20 to 60 NM-
418 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the coastal waters of Alabama
and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   Tropical Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.