Severe Thunderstorm Warning 120, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
658 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z issuance...Mostly MVFR cigs and visibilities through 14.12z.
Could see short periods of IFR cigs in heavy showers and
thunderstorms through 14.12z. Winds will be southeast at 20 to 25
with higher gusts...gusting to near 40 kts in most showers and
thunderstorms due to Tropical storm Barry. These conditions will
continue through 14.12z. 32/ee

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 500 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Saturday night/...Latest radar loops
continue to show bands of very heavy moving onshore mostly over
the western side of the forecast area this morning, generally
over most of Mobile Co AL stretching west over lower parts of
inland southeast MS. Latest hi res data show this trend continuing
mostly over the western half of the forecast area early today
then gradually shifting eastward this afternoon and tonight. The
main concern continues to be heavy rain from training cells over
the western half of the forecast area today leading to rainfall
rates between 2 to 3 inches per hour leading to some flash
flooding in these areas before the day in out. As a result a flash
flood watch will continue over western and coastal portions of
the forecast area through tonight.

Winds gusting to around 40 mph with most of this mornings
convection will also continue today possibly occurring away from
showers and thunderstorms also later today due to a tighter pres
gradient setting up across much of the region as Barry moves
onshore. As a result will continue with a wind advisory for the
coastal counties of AL stretching west over Stone and George
counties in southeast MS and east over the lower half of Escambia
county in NWFL.

Increased shear and instability is also noted this morning
continuing through tonight as Barry tracks northward over LA into
AR, possibly leading to some damaging wind gusts along with
isolated tornadoes. For now will continue to monitor the severe
threat with the best chance for widespread damage remaining to the
west over LA and MS closer to the center of Barry.

Temperatures will continue to be moderated today and tonight due
to cloudy skies and good mixing in the boundary layer. Highs today
will range from the lower to middle 80s to the west and the middle
to upper 80s to the east. Lows tonight will range from the lower
to middle 70s for most inland areas and the upper 70s to near 80
along the immediate coast. 32/ee

SHORT TERM /Sunday Through Monday night/...Conditions will begin
to improve on Sunday as Tropical Storm Barry moves well inland
over LA and AR. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
are still expected over the forecast area on Sun with the best
chance still remaining over the western half mostly due to the
position of Barry by this time frame. High rainfall totals mostly
from training cells will also continue leading to a Flash Flood
Watch continuing over western and coastal sections of the
forecast area through Sunday afternoon. With conditions slowly
improving to near normal temperatures will return to near seasonal
levels. 32/ee

LONG TERM /Tuesday Through Friday/...The region is expected to
return to a more typical diurnally driven convective pattern through
the Friday.  The area will lie between an upper level high pressure
ridge over the western Atlantic and one extending from Texas
northward over the Rocky Mountain states. An upper level trough is
projected to move across the area from west to east Tuesday night
into Wednesday which may serve to provide some enhancement Wednesday
to afternoon convection. Following the passage of the front the
forecast area lies on the periphery of one of the ridges or in a COL
area through Friday. Temperatures during the period are projected to
trend near to a little warmer than climatological norms. /08

MARINE...Tropical Storm Barry, located within 50 nm south of the
Louisiana Gulf coast this morning, is expected to move northwest,
then north through the weekend. Bands of rain, gusty winds up to
40 to 50 knots, and high seas up to 14 feet are expected over
area waters into Sunday before conditions begin to ease. High
pressure then builds into the eastern Gulf and brings a light
southerly flow to the area waters early to mid next week. Highs
seas this weekend will ease to around 1 to 3 feet by Monday night.
A Tropical Storm warning continues over the open gulf waters from
Pascagoula to Pensacola out to 60 nm. A Small Craft Advisory
remains in effect for all other marine areas excluding
Choctawhatchee Bay. 32/ee

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for ALZ051-052-
     261>266.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ263>266.

     High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory until 1 PM CDT Sunday for ALZ265-266.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM CDT Sunday for ALZ263>266.

FL...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for FLZ201-202.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ202-204.

     High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for FLZ202-204-206.

     High Surf Advisory until 1 PM CDT Sunday for FLZ202-204-206.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM CDT Sunday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for MSZ067-075-076-
     078-079.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ078-079.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Sunday for GMZ630>634-655-
     675.

     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM CDT Sunday for GMZ650-670.

     Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ650-670.

&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
643 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019

ALZ266-131230-
Baldwin Coastal AL-
643 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019

...SHOWERS WITH ROTATION WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
SOUTHWESTERN BALDWIN COUNTY UNTIL 730 AM CDT...

At 642 AM CDT, showers with weak rotation were located 9 miles
southeast of Fort Morgan, or 14 miles southeast of Dauphin Island,
moving north at 40 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm. Brief
weak tornadoes may form with little to no advance warning.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Morgan.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Waterspouts can move onshore and impact beaches before dissipating.
Furniture that isn't well anchored may become airborne and pose a
dangerous threat to beachgoers.  Seek shelter if you see a waterspout
moving towards shore.

&&

LAT...LON 3023 8802 3024 8796 3024 8795 3025 8796
      3026 8794 3024 8790 3024 8785 3025 8782
      3026 8777 3024 8778 3024 8781 3023 8778
      3023 8799 3022 8803
TIME...MOT...LOC 1142Z 186DEG 33KT 3011 8795

JLH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
652 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019

ALZ264-266-131230-
Baldwin Coastal AL-Baldwin Central AL-
652 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019

...SHOWERS WITH ROTATION WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
SOUTHWESTERN BALDWIN COUNTY UNTIL 730 AM CDT...

At 651 AM CDT, showers with weak rotation located over Magnolia
Springs, or 7 miles west of Foley, moving north at 30 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm. Brief
weak tornadoes may form with little to no advance warning.

Locations impacted include...
Daphne, Fairhope, Robertsdale, Loxley, Magnolia Springs, Summerdale
and Silverhill.

LAT...LON 3032 8780 3036 8784 3038 8783 3039 8781
      3041 8782 3042 8783 3039 8785 3038 8784
      3038 8785 3042 8791 3052 8792 3055 8790
      3058 8791 3064 8792 3065 8791 3064 8766
      3032 8770
TIME...MOT...LOC 1151Z 181DEG 27KT 3039 8781

JLH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
700 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019

ALZ263-265-131245-
Mobile Coastal AL-Mobile Central AL-
700 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019

...A SHOWER WITH ROTATION WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...SOUTH
CENTRAL MOBILE COUNTY UNTIL 745 AM CDT...

At 700 AM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located near Alabama Port,
or 6 miles east of Bayou La Batre, moving north at 30 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm. A
tornado may form with little to no advanced warning.

Locations impacted include...
Midtown Mobile, Downtown Mobile, Tillmans Corner, Theodore, Coden,
I10 And I65, Mobile Regional Airport and Alabama Port.

LAT...LON 3035 8819 3036 8819 3038 8824 3071 8828
      3072 8800 3070 8803 3069 8800 3069 8802
      3068 8800 3067 8803 3068 8804 3066 8803
      3064 8806 3061 8805 3057 8809 3036 8811
      3034 8813 3034 8820
TIME...MOT...LOC 1200Z 181DEG 27KT 3041 8814

JLH