River Flood Warning 57, NWS Mobile, AL

296 
WGUS84 KMOB 230133
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
733 PM CST Sun Dec 22 2019
 

...The flood warning continues for the following river in Florida...
 
  Shoal River Near Crestview affecting Okaloosa County. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

FLC091-240132-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0057.191223T1424Z-191225T0824Z/
/CRVF1.1.ER.191223T1424Z.191224T0600Z.191225T0224Z.NO/
733 PM CST Sun Dec 22 2019

...Flood Warning extended until late Tuesday night for
  the Shoal River Near Crestview
* From tomorrow morning until late Tuesday night.
* At 7 PM Sunday the stage was 6.9 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 8 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by tomorrow morning and continue to rise 
  near 9 feet by early Tuesday morning. The river will fall below flood stage 
  by late Tuesday night.
* At 8.5 feet...Water in yards on Sowel Road.

&&

LAT...LON 3078 8650 3078 8649 3069 8653 3069 8663
 3070 8663 3070 8655                  

$$

927 
WGUS84 KMOB 231652
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
1052 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2019
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Florida...
 
  Shoal River Near Crestview affecting Okaloosa County. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

FLC091-241651-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0057.000000T0000Z-191225T0824Z/
/CRVF1.1.ER.191223T2100Z.191224T1200Z.191225T0224Z.NO/
1052 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Shoal River Near Crestview
* From late this afternoon until late Tuesday night.
* At 10AM Monday the stage was 7.7 feet. 
* No flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by late this afternoon and continue to rise
  near 8.8 feet by tomorrow morning. The river will fall below flood stage by .
* At 8.5 feet...Water in yards on Sowel Road.

&&

LAT...LON 3078 8650 3078 8649 3069 8653 3069 8663
 3070 8663 3070 8655                  

$$

098 
WGUS84 KMOB 240229
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
829 PM CST Mon Dec 23 2019
 

...The flood warning continues for the following river in Florida...
 
  Shoal River Near Crestview affecting Okaloosa County. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

FLC091-250229-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0057.000000T0000Z-191225T0600Z/
/CRVF1.1.ER.191224T0900Z.191224T1200Z.191225T0000Z.NO/
829 PM CST Mon Dec 23 2019

...Flood Warning extended until late Tuesday night for
  the Shoal River Near Crestview
* From early tomorrow until late Tuesday night.
* At 7 PM Monday the stage was 7.8 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 8 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by early tomorrow and continue to rise near
  8.1 feet by tomorrow morning. The river will fall below flood stage by late Tuesday night.
* At 8 feet...Minor flooding of low lying areas.

&&

LAT...LON 3078 8650 3078 8649 3069 8653 3069 8663
 3070 8663 3070 8655                  

$$

495 
WGUS84 KMOB 241631
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
1031 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2019
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Florida...
 
  Shoal River Near Crestview affecting Okaloosa County. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

FLC091-251630-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0057.000000T0000Z-191225T1800Z/
/CRVF1.1.ER.191224T1800Z.191225T0000Z.191225T1200Z.NO/
1031 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2019

...Flood Warning extended until Wednesday afternoon...The Flood Warning 
continues for
  the Shoal River Near Crestview
* From this afternoon until Wednesday afternoon.
* At 9AM Tuesday the stage was 7.9 feet. 
* No flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by this afternoon and continue to rise near
  8.1 feet by this evening. The river will fall below flood stage by Wednesday afternoon.
* At 8.0 feet...Minor flooding of low lying areas.

&&

LAT...LON 3078 8650 3078 8649 3069 8653 3069 8663
 3070 8663 3070 8655                  

$$

430 
WGUS84 KMOB 250249
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
849 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2019
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Florida...
 
  Shoal River Near Crestview affecting Okaloosa County. 
...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...
Mississippi...
 
  Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam affecting Choctaw...Clarke and 
  Washington Counties. 
  Tombigbee River Near Leroy affecting Choctaw...Clarke and Washington 
  Counties. 
  Chickasawhay At Leakesville affecting George...Greene and Wayne Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

ALC023-025-129-260249-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0054.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CLDA1.1.ER.191221T0532Z.191223T0800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
849 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam
* until further notice.
* At 8 PM Tuesday the stage was 30.4 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 29.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 32.4 feet by Thursday evening then 
  begin falling.
* At 29.0 feet...Pastureland becomes flooded. Livestock should be moved to 
  higher ground. Old Ferry Road near the river begins to flood.

&&

LAT...LON 3231 8805 3232 8791 3178 8809 3160 8804
 3160 8810 3178 8822                  

$$

ALC023-025-129-260249-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0055.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LRYA1.1.ER.191225T0308Z.191227T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
849 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Tombigbee River Near Leroy
* From tonight until further notice.
* At 8 PM Tuesday the stage was 24.0 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Forecast to continue to rise near 25.5 feet by early Friday morning.
* At 24.0 feet...Flooding of low lying farm and pasturelands begins. Cattle in 
  low lying areas should be moved to higher ground.

&&

LAT...LON 3160 8810 3160 8804 3149 8786 3114 8792
 3114 8802 3149 8793                  

$$

FLC091-251200-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0057.000000T0000Z-191225T1200Z/
/CRVF1.1.ER.191225T0600Z.191225T0600Z.191225T0600Z.NO/
849 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2019

...Flood Warning extended until Wednesday morning...The Flood Warning continues 
for
  the Shoal River Near Crestview
* From after midnight tomorrow until Wednesday morning.
* At 8 PM Tuesday the stage was 8.0 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Forecast to fall below flood stage by 7 AM Wednesday morning.
* At 8.0 feet...Minor flooding of low lying areas.

&&

LAT...LON 3078 8650 3078 8649 3069 8653 3069 8663
 3070 8663 3070 8655                  

$$

MSC039-041-153-260249-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0056.191225T2000Z-191228T2100Z/
/LEKM6.1.ER.191225T2000Z.191227T0000Z.191228T1500Z.NO/
849 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Chickasawhay At Leakesville
* From tomorrow early afternoon until Saturday afternoon.
* At 8 PM Tuesday the stage was 18.8 feet. 
* No flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by tomorrow early afternoon and continue to
  rise near 21.0 feet by Thursday evening.
* At 22.0 feet...Flooding of lowlands continues and some roads in low lying 
  areas become cut off by high water.

&&

LAT...LON 3144 8857 3144 8846 3108 8854 3098 8873
 3100 8875 3110 8858                  

$$

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
604 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2019

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z issuance...Expect mostly IFR cigs and visibilities in light
to moderate rain and low stratus through 23.12z. Rain will slowly
decrease in coverage later this morning continuing through
tonight. Winds will be northwest to north at 10 to 20 knots
through about 23.00z diminishing to 8 to 10 knots this evening and
overnight. 32/ee

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 442 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2019/

NEAR/SHORT TERM /Now Through Monday/...A large area of light to
moderate rain will continue to move onshore through this evening
in response to a deepening surface low over the north central
Gulf, generally south of the AL/MS coast this morning, moves north
northeast towards the Florida panhandle mostly between Destin and
Panama City FL. Aloft a deep area of low pressure near the TX/LA
border this morning will continue to move eastward reaching the
lower AL/MS border by late tonight then east southeast reaching
the northeastern Gulf waters just south of Apalachicola Fl by Mon
afternoon. With this pattern the upper system will continue to
merge with the surface low moving northward towards the NWFL coast
today and early tonight leading to increased forcing in the mid
to upper levels combined with the widespread insentropic lift,
which is expected to continue over much of the north central Gulf
coast region through this evening. The main concern with this
pattern will continue to be widespread precip across the forecast
area resulting in some minor flooding of small creeks and streams
and ponding of water in low lying areas were drainage is poor. As
the low center approaches the coast later today wind gusts from 20
to 30 mph will be possible mainly over western Florida Panhandle
generally east of Pensacola stretching northward over parts of the
south central AL. At this time we are not anticipating any
significant flooding or flash flooding over these areas affected.
We are also holding off on any wind advisories for now and will
continue to monitor this situation closely through Mon afternoon.
For Mon rain chances decrease from west to east during the day
with skies remaining mostly cloudy, along with a light to
moderate northwest to northerly wind flow near the surface.

Highs temperatures today will be similar to yesterday or 3 to 5
degrees below seasonal norms then near seasonal norms on Mon,
ranging from the lower 50s to middle 50s well inland and the
middle 50s to lower 60s closer to the coast today and the middle
50s to lower 60s for most locations on Mon. Lows tonight will be
above seasonal norms ranging from the middle to upper 40s for most
locations. 32/ee

LONG TERM /Monday night Through Saturday/...An upper level
cutoff low centered over Florida will continue to progress
eastward towards the Atlantic through midweek. At the same time,
ridging will build over the region from the west. This is expected
to last through late week before another cutoff low over the
southwest advances towards the south-central CONUS. At the
surface, low pressure centered over northeast FL and SE Georgia
will move north towards the Carolinas Monday evening. By Tuesday
morning, it will move off over the Atlantic. Simultaneously, high
pressure will build in behind the low from the west. High pressure
will then maintain its hold over the southeastern CONUS through
at least Thursday before beginning to shift eastward. This will
keep dry weather for the northern Gulf coast for Tuesday and
through most of the work week.

Although, by Friday a low pressure system over southern New Mexico
and far western Texas will begin to traverse the southern Plains,
bringing with it increased chances of rain for the south-central
CONUS. The low will eventually move over northern Texas and Oklahoma
early Saturday before advancing towards the Ohio Valley. A cold
front associated with this low pressure will then begin to progress
over the southeastern CONUS late Saturday. The progression of this
system through late week will bring increased chances of rain to the
area, mainly for the weekend. However, there is a great deal of
uncertainty with this system due to model discrepancy. This is
particularly true with the most recent model run compared to
previous runs. The GFS is more progressive with the upper level low
over the southwest, whereas the ECMWF solution is much slower. The
GFS shows this feature eventually becoming a positively tiled trough
through the weekend as well. Meanwhile, the ECMWF shows the low
eventually being ingested by the northern stream flow during this
time. Therefore, at this time, did not stray too far from the
blended guidance in regards to PoPs for late week.

Temperatures will run above normal through the long term period.
Highs will start in the mid to upper 60s Tuesday, then be in the 70s
for most areas by Christmas Day. Highs in the lower 70s will
continue to be the story through Saturday. Low temperatures will
gradually increase during the week as well. Lows Tuesday morning
will be in the mid to upper 40s inland to around 50 degrees near the
coast. By Saturday morning, lows will reach the mid to upper 50s.

Finally, a high risk of rip currents is in effect through Monday
night. A moderate risk for rip currents will then follow for Tuesday
and Wednesday. /26

MARINE...A strong northerly wind flow will continue over the
marine area through this afternoon as a deepening surface low over
the north central Gulf moves northeast towards the Florida
Panhandle. As a result Gale conditions are still possible over
the open gulf waters mostly south of NWFL through this afternoon.
Northerly winds and seas will begin to slowly subside tonight and
continue through Monday night as the area of low pressure moves
northward over the southeast states. A light northerly flow will
continue through midweek then become east late in the week as a
surface ridge of high pressure builds over the Mississippi River
Valley and shifts east. 32/ee

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for FLZ202-204-
     206.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ630-
     633>636.

     Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Monday for GMZ631-632-650.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 AM CST Tuesday
     for GMZ670-675.

     Gale Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ655-670-675.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon CST Monday
     for GMZ655.

&&

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