Alert archive / Mississippi / River Flood Warnings in 2019

River Flood Warning 56, NWS Mobile, AL

December 21, 2019George County, Greene County, Wayne County, Mississippi

NWS Mobile, AL issued this river flood warning at Dec 21, 2019, 10:33 AM CST for George County, Greene County, Wayne County, Mississippi. It took effect at Dec 23, 2019, 10:30 PM CST. It was in force for 61 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Dec 21, 2019, 10:33 AM CST (16:33 UTC)
In effect from
Dec 23, 2019, 10:30 PM CST
Expired
Dec 26, 2019, 11:24 AM CST
In force
61 hr
Issued by
NWS Mobile, AL
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
Minor

Counties George County, MS, Greene County, MS, Wayne County, MS

The radar

The Mobile radar (KMOB), 68 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:36 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Chickasawhay River at Leakesville (LEKM6). The gauge peaked at 20.32 ft at Dec 20, 2019, 10:00 AM CST.

actionminormoderate15202512/2112/2212/2312/2412/2512/2612/27
Action stage
15 ft
Minor stage
20 ft
Moderate stage
28 ft
Major stage
31 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 02478500, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted.

307 
WGUS44 KMOB 211633
FLWMOB
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
1033 AM CST Sat Dec 21 2019



...The National Weather Service in Mobile has issued a flood warning for the 
following rivers in Mississippi... 

  Chickasawhay At Leakesville affecting George...Greene and Wayne Counties.

.Heavy rainfall is forecast to occur over the next 24 hours. As a result...river
levels are forecast to rise and a flood warning is now in effect. It is 
emphasized that the following forecast is based on the expected rainfall during 
the next 24 hours. If less rainfall occurs...it may be necessary to revise this 
stage forecast downward.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-153-221632-
/O.NEW.KMOB.FL.W.0056.191224T0430Z-000000T0000Z/
/LEKM6.1.ER.191224T0430Z.191226T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1033 AM CST Sat Dec 21 2019

The National Weather Service in Mobile has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  The Chickasawhay At Leakesville
* From Monday evening until further notice
* At 10AM Saturday the stage was...18.3 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast 
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet. 
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by Monday before midnight and continue to 
  rise near 21.5 feet by Wednesday evening.
* At 22.0 feet...Flooding of lowlands continues and some roads in low lying 
  areas become cut off by high water.

&&

LAT...LON 3144 8857 3144 8846 3108 8854 3098 8873
 3100 8875 3110 8858                  

$$
10 follow-up statements
139 
WGUS84 KMOB 220242
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
842 PM CST Sat Dec 21 2019
 

...The flood warning continues for the following river in Mississippi...
 
  Chickasawhay At Leakesville affecting George...Greene and Wayne Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-153-230241-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0056.191224T0430Z-000000T0000Z/
/LEKM6.1.ER.191224T0430Z.191226T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
842 PM CST Sat Dec 21 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Chickasawhay At Leakesville
* From Monday before midnight until further notice.
* At 8 PM Saturday the stage was 17.5 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 20 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by Monday before midnight and continue to 
  rise near 21.5 feet by Wednesday evening.
* At 22 feet...Flooding of lowlands continues and some roads in low lying 
  areas become cut off by high water.

&&

LAT...LON 3144 8857 3144 8846 3108 8854 3098 8873
 3100 8875 3110 8858                  

$$
303 
WGUS84 KMOB 221656
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
1056 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2019
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Mississippi...
 
  Chickasawhay At Leakesville affecting George...Greene and Wayne Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-153-231655-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0056.191225T0800Z-000000T0000Z/
/LEKM6.1.ER.191225T0800Z.191226T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1056 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2019

...Flood Warning extended until further notice...The Flood Warning continues for
  the Chickasawhay At Leakesville
* From early Wednesday morning until further notice.
* At 10AM Sunday the stage was 16.9 feet. 
* No flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by early Wednesday morning and continue to 
  rise near 21.0 feet by Thursday morning.
* At 22.0 feet...Flooding of lowlands continues and some roads in low lying 
  areas become cut off by high water.

&&

LAT...LON 3144 8857 3144 8846 3108 8854 3098 8873
 3100 8875 3110 8858                  

$$
940 
WGUS84 KMOB 230134
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
734 PM CST Sun Dec 22 2019
 

...The flood warning continues for the following river in Mississippi...
 
  Chickasawhay At Leakesville affecting George...Greene and Wayne Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-153-240134-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0056.191225T0800Z-191228T0200Z/
/LEKM6.1.ER.191225T0800Z.191226T1200Z.191227T2000Z.NO/
734 PM CST Sun Dec 22 2019

...Flood Warning extended until Friday evening for
  the Chickasawhay At Leakesville
* From early Wednesday morning until Friday evening.
* At 7 PM Sunday the stage was 16.9 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 20 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by early Wednesday morning and continue to 
  rise near 21 feet by Thursday morning. The river will fall below flood stage
  by Friday evening.
* At 22 feet...Flooding of lowlands continues and some roads in low lying 
  areas become cut off by high water.

&&

LAT...LON 3144 8857 3144 8846 3108 8854 3098 8873
 3100 8875 3110 8858                  

$$
377 
WGUS84 KMOB 231655
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
1055 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2019
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Mississippi...
 
  Chickasawhay At Leakesville affecting George...Greene and Wayne Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-153-241655-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0056.191225T1800Z-191228T1600Z/
/LEKM6.1.ER.191225T1800Z.191227T0000Z.191228T1000Z.NO/
1055 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2019

...Flood Warning extended until Saturday morning...The Flood Warning continues 
for
  the Chickasawhay At Leakesville
* From Wednesday early afternoon until Saturday morning.
* At 10AM Monday the stage was 17.4 feet. 
* No flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by Wednesday early afternoon and continue 
  to rise near 21.0 feet by Thursday evening. The river will fall below flood 
  stage by .
* At 22.0 feet...Flooding of lowlands continues and some roads in low lying 
  areas become cut off by high water.

&&

LAT...LON 3144 8857 3144 8846 3108 8854 3098 8873
 3100 8875 3110 8858                  

$$
579 
WGUS84 KMOB 240232
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
832 PM CST Mon Dec 23 2019
 

...The flood warning continues for the following river in Mississippi...
 
  Chickasawhay At Leakesville affecting George...Greene and Wayne Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-153-250231-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0056.191225T1800Z-191228T1600Z/
/LEKM6.1.ER.191225T1800Z.191227T0000Z.191228T1000Z.NO/
832 PM CST Mon Dec 23 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Chickasawhay At Leakesville
* From Wednesday early afternoon until Saturday morning.
* At 8 PM Monday the stage was 17.8 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 20 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by Wednesday early afternoon and continue 
  to rise near 21 feet by Thursday evening. The river will fall below flood 
  stage by early Saturday morning.
* At 22 feet...Flooding of lowlands continues and some roads in low lying 
  areas become cut off by high water.

&&

LAT...LON 3144 8857 3144 8846 3108 8854 3098 8873
 3100 8875 3110 8858                  

$$
786 
WGUS84 KMOB 241635
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
1035 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2019
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Mississippi...
 
  Chickasawhay At Leakesville affecting George...Greene and Wayne Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-153-251635-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0056.191225T2000Z-191228T2100Z/
/LEKM6.1.ER.191225T2000Z.191226T1800Z.191228T1500Z.NO/
1035 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2019

...Flood Warning extended until Saturday afternoon...The Flood Warning continues
for
  the Chickasawhay At Leakesville
* From tomorrow early afternoon until Saturday afternoon.
* At 10AM Tuesday the stage was 18.4 feet. 
* No flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by tomorrow early afternoon and continue to
  rise near 21.0 feet by Thursday early afternoon. The river will fall below 
  flood stage by Saturday afternoon.
* At 22.0 feet...Flooding of lowlands continues and some roads in low lying 
  areas become cut off by high water.

&&

LAT...LON 3144 8857 3144 8846 3108 8854 3098 8873
 3100 8875 3110 8858                  

$$
430 
WGUS84 KMOB 250249
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
849 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2019
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Florida...
 
  Shoal River Near Crestview affecting Okaloosa County. 
...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...
Mississippi...
 
  Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam affecting Choctaw...Clarke and 
  Washington Counties. 
  Tombigbee River Near Leroy affecting Choctaw...Clarke and Washington 
  Counties. 
  Chickasawhay At Leakesville affecting George...Greene and Wayne Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

ALC023-025-129-260249-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0054.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CLDA1.1.ER.191221T0532Z.191223T0800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
849 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam
* until further notice.
* At 8 PM Tuesday the stage was 30.4 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 29.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 32.4 feet by Thursday evening then 
  begin falling.
* At 29.0 feet...Pastureland becomes flooded. Livestock should be moved to 
  higher ground. Old Ferry Road near the river begins to flood.

&&

LAT...LON 3231 8805 3232 8791 3178 8809 3160 8804
 3160 8810 3178 8822                  

$$

ALC023-025-129-260249-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0055.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LRYA1.1.ER.191225T0308Z.191227T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
849 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Tombigbee River Near Leroy
* From tonight until further notice.
* At 8 PM Tuesday the stage was 24.0 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Forecast to continue to rise near 25.5 feet by early Friday morning.
* At 24.0 feet...Flooding of low lying farm and pasturelands begins. Cattle in 
  low lying areas should be moved to higher ground.

&&

LAT...LON 3160 8810 3160 8804 3149 8786 3114 8792
 3114 8802 3149 8793                  

$$

FLC091-251200-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0057.000000T0000Z-191225T1200Z/
/CRVF1.1.ER.191225T0600Z.191225T0600Z.191225T0600Z.NO/
849 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2019

...Flood Warning extended until Wednesday morning...The Flood Warning continues 
for
  the Shoal River Near Crestview
* From after midnight tomorrow until Wednesday morning.
* At 8 PM Tuesday the stage was 8.0 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Forecast to fall below flood stage by 7 AM Wednesday morning.
* At 8.0 feet...Minor flooding of low lying areas.

&&

LAT...LON 3078 8650 3078 8649 3069 8653 3069 8663
 3070 8663 3070 8655                  

$$

MSC039-041-153-260249-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0056.191225T2000Z-191228T2100Z/
/LEKM6.1.ER.191225T2000Z.191227T0000Z.191228T1500Z.NO/
849 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Chickasawhay At Leakesville
* From tomorrow early afternoon until Saturday afternoon.
* At 8 PM Tuesday the stage was 18.8 feet. 
* No flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by tomorrow early afternoon and continue to
  rise near 21.0 feet by Thursday evening.
* At 22.0 feet...Flooding of lowlands continues and some roads in low lying 
  areas become cut off by high water.

&&

LAT...LON 3144 8857 3144 8846 3108 8854 3098 8873
 3100 8875 3110 8858                  

$$
218 
WGUS84 KMOB 251637
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
1037 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2019
 

...The flood warning continues for the following river in Mississippi...
 
  Chickasawhay At Leakesville affecting George...Greene and Wayne Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-153-261637-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0056.191226T1000Z-191228T2100Z/
/LEKM6.1.ER.191226T1000Z.191227T0600Z.191228T1500Z.NO/
1037 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2019

...Flood Warning extended until Saturday afternoon for
  the Chickasawhay At Leakesville
* From early tomorrow until Saturday afternoon.
* At 10 AM Wednesday the stage was 19.2 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 20 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by early tomorrow and continue to rise near
  20.5 feet by early Friday morning. The river will fall below flood stage by Saturday afternoon.
* At 20 feet...Flooding of lowlands will occur.

&&

LAT...LON 3144 8857 3144 8846 3108 8854 3098 8873
 3100 8875 3110 8858                  

$$
659 
WGUS84 KMOB 260112
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
712 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2019
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...
Mississippi...
 
  Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam affecting Choctaw...Clarke and Washington 
  Counties. 
  Chickasawhay At Leakesville affecting George...Greene and Wayne Counties. 
...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...
 
  Tombigbee River Near Leroy affecting Choctaw...Clarke and Washington 
  Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

ALC023-025-129-270111-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0054.000000T0000Z-191231T0400Z/
/CLDA1.1.ER.191221T0532Z.191225T1100Z.191230T2200Z.NO/
712 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2019

...Flood Warning extended until Monday evening...The Flood Warning continues for
  the Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam
* until Monday evening.
* At 6 PM Wednesday the stage was 31.8 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 29.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 33.0 feet by Friday morning. The river 
  will fall below flood stage Monday afternoon.
* At 29.0 feet...Pastureland becomes flooded. Livestock should be moved to 
  higher ground. Old Ferry Road near the river begins to flood.

&&

LAT...LON 3231 8805 3232 8791 3178 8809 3160 8804
 3160 8810 3178 8822                  

$$

ALC023-025-129-270111-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0055.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LRYA1.1.ER.191225T0248Z.191227T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
712 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Tombigbee River Near Leroy
* until further notice.
* At 7 PM Wednesday the stage was 25.2 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 26.0 feet by Friday morning then begin 
  falling.
* At 24.0 feet...Flooding of low lying farm and pasturelands begins. Cattle in 
  low lying areas should be moved to higher ground.

&&

LAT...LON 3160 8810 3160 8804 3149 8786 3114 8792
 3114 8802 3149 8793                  

$$

MSC039-041-153-270111-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0056.191226T1500Z-191228T2100Z/
/LEKM6.1.ER.191226T1500Z.191227T0600Z.191228T1500Z.NO/
712 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2019

...Flood Warning extended until Saturday afternoon...The Flood Warning continues
for
  the Chickasawhay At Leakesville
* From tomorrow late morning until Saturday afternoon.
* At 6 PM Wednesday the stage was 19.4 feet. 
* No flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by tomorrow late morning and continue to 
  rise near 20.5 feet by early Friday morning.
* At 20.0 feet...Flooding of lowlands will occur.

&&

LAT...LON 3144 8857 3144 8846 3108 8854 3098 8873
 3100 8875 3110 8858                  

$$
757 
WGUS84 KMOB 261724
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
1124 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2019
 
...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in Mississippi...
 
  Chickasawhay At Leakesville affecting George...Greene and Wayne Counties.

.The river is cresting just below flood stage and is now expected to 
gradually fall through Monday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-153-261754-
/O.CAN.KMOB.FL.W.0056.000000T0000Z-191228T2100Z/
/LEKM6.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1124 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2019

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Chickasawhay At Leakesville
* At 10 AM Thursday the stage was 19.5 feet. 
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* The river is cresting and is expected to gradually fall 
  to around 15 feet by Monday. 
* At 20.0 feet...Flooding of lowlands will occur.

&&

LAT...LON 3144 8857 3144 8846 3108 8854 3098 8873
 3100 8875 3110 8858                  

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Mobile, AL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Dec 21, 6:06 AM CST, 4 hours 27 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 21, 6:06 AM CST, 4 hours 27 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
606 AM CST Sat Dec 21 2019

.DISCUSSION...See updated information for land areas and aviation
discussion below.

&&

.UPDATE...In conjunction with a high risk of rip currents, surf
heights are expected to reach between 4 and 6 feet later today
and persist through Sunday night. Therefore, a High Surf Advisory
was issued and is in effect from 4PM this afternoon through Sunday
night. /26

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z issuance...VFR conditions were observed at all TAF sites at
issuance, along with light rain showers. Showers will increase in
intensity area-wide through the day today, with the heaviest
showers expected overnight tonight into tomorrow morning as a
surface low pressure system progresses over the northern Gulf.
With this, expect lowering VIS and IFR CIGs, especially overnight
during the heavier showers. Furthermore, sustained northeast winds
will generally be between 10 and 15 knots, with gusts around 20
knots expected at BFM and PNS later today through tonight. /26

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 504 AM CST Sat Dec 21 2019/

NEAR/SHORT TERM /Now Through Sunday/...Little change from the
previous forecast package is expected this morning with main upper
low approaching from the west deepening over the lower MS River
Valley and north central Gulf states later today through early Sun
afternoon, merging with a rapidly developing surface low located
over the north central gulf tracking north northeast towards the
FL Panhandle through Sunday. The GFS and ECMWF still showing
subtle differences with the track of this system with the Euro
guidance favoring a better track further to the west resulting in
slightly better precip and wind impacts to the forecast area later
today through Sunday afternoon. As the system to the south begins
to intensify rapidly later this morning widespread isentropic
lift or overrunning will become much better organized on the
northern side of the low leading to widespread light to moderate
rain spreading northward towards the coast later this morning
quickly spreading inland and becoming heavy at times due to better
dynamically forcing approaching from the west, covering most of
the forecast area late this afternoon and tonight. Similar to
earlier runs current model guidance continues to show moderate to
occasional rainfalls rates with this pattern later today through
Sunday morning then slowly shifting eastward by Sun afternoon.
Rainfall totals from 2 to 4 inches area wide can be expected with
locally higher amounts possible especially over eastern and
coastal sections of the forecast area late tonight through Sun
morning. As result some minor flooding will be possible overnight
and Sun morning especially in areas with poor drainage. At this
time we are not anticipating widespread flash flooding with this
system due to current antecedent conditions across the region and
the forward progression with the main upper system over the
weekend.

With the surface low remaining mostly to the south of most land
areas in the forecast area through Sun conditions will remain on
the cool side over the weekend. Highs today and Sun will range
from the lower to middle 50s for most inland areas and the middle
to upper 50s along the immediate coast. Lows tonight will range
from the middle to upper 40s for most inland areas generally
north of the I-10 corridor and the upper 40s to lower 50s to the
south. 32/ee

LONG TERM /Sunday night Through Friday/...The long term period
will begin with an upper level cutoff low centered over eastern
Louisiana, southeast Mississippi, and southwest Alabama. The
models are in fair agreement with this upper level pattern as a
whole; however, the ECMWF does show the center of the low tracking
a bit further north whereas the GFS more eastward in relation to
Mobile, Alabama. This low will continue to progress to the east
until it moves off into the Atlantic by Tuesday evening. By this
time, a ridge will build over the southeastern CONUS from the west
through late week. A deep trough will then develop over the
southwestern CONUS by Friday and begin to advance eastward towards
the eastern CONUS.

At the surface, a low pressure system will begin to occlude over the
panhandle of Florida. This low will move northeast over Florida
through Monday before it quickly moves off over the Atlantic by
early Tuesday. Most of the shower activity is expected to occur over
the weekend. Thus, the majority of the shower activity will decrease
through the day Monday, with most of the showers coming to an end by
Monday evening. As high pressure builds in from the west, dry
conditions will then return to the area through midweek. By late
week, a cold front, associated with a low pressure system over the
Ohio Valley, will move southeast towards the region and bring the
potential for another chance at showers Friday afternoon and into
next weekend. The models are coming into better alignment with this
late week/weekend system. However, as this is at the tail-end of the
forecast, future model runs will continue to be monitored as the
event gets closer.

High temperatures will generally increase through the week, with
highs beginning in the lower 60s Monday. By Christmas Day highs will
warm to be in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees. This trend will
continue into Thursday as highs reach the lower 70s for most areas.
However, by Friday afternoon, a slight cool down is expected from
west to east as a cold front approaches the region. Temperatures in
the west will be in the upper 60s, with temperatures in the east
around 70 degrees. Low temperatures will also follow a warming
trend, starting out in the lower to upper 40s and increasing to
generally be in the lower 50s by Friday morning.

Lastly, there is Moderate Risk of Rip currents along the Gulf
beaches of Alabama and Northwest Florida Monday through Tuesday.
/26

MARINE...Gale conditions area expected over the open Gulf waters
of Alabama and Northwest Florida late today through early Sunday
morning in response to a strong upper level disturbance merging with
a developing surface low pressure system moving northward towards
the Northwest Florida coast. Seas up to 12 feet well offshore can
be expected tonight through Sunday. Widespread moderate to heavy
rain will cover much of the marine area late today through Sunday
morning. Winds and seas will begin slowly to subside late Sunday
into Monday as the main upper system shifts east to the northeast
Gulf. 32/ee

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM CST Monday
     for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ202-204-
     206.

     High Surf Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM CST Monday
     for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST Sunday
     for GMZ630-633>636.

     Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST Monday night for GMZ631-
     632-650.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ655-
     670-675.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to midnight CST Monday
     night for GMZ655-670-675.

     Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST Sunday for
     GMZ655-670-675.

&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob
Hazardous weather outlook, Dec 21, 6:43 AM CST, 3 hours 50 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
643 AM CST Sat Dec 21 2019

ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-221245-
Choctaw-Washington-Clarke-Wilcox-Monroe-Conecuh-Butler-Crenshaw-
Escambia-Covington-Mobile Inland-Baldwin Inland-Mobile Central-
Baldwin Central-Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Inland-
Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Inland-Santa Rosa Coastal-
Okaloosa Inland-Okaloosa Coastal-Wayne-Perry-Greene-Stone-George-
643 AM CST Sat Dec 21 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Alabama...southwest Alabama...northwest Florida and southeast
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A High Rip Current Risk is in effect for coastal portions of
Alabama and the western Florida panhandle beginning 6:00 AM CST
Today.

A High Surf Advisory is in effect for coastal portions of Alabama
and the western Florida panhandle beginning 4:00 PM CST Today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

A High Rip Current Risk is in effect for coastal portions of
Alabama and the western Florida panhandle until 6:00 AM CST
Monday.

A High Surf Advisory is in effect for coastal portions of Alabama
and the western Florida panhandle until 6:00 AM CST Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please go to weather.gov/mob for additional information.

Activation of SkyWarn severe spotter networks is not expected
through Friday.

GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675-221245-
Northern Mobile Bay-Southern Mobile Bay-Mississippi Sound-
Perdido Bay-Pensacola Bay System-Western Choctawhatchee Bay-
Eastern Choctawhatchee Bay-
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola
FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL from
20 to 60 NM-
643 AM CST Sat Dec 21 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the coastal
waters of Alabama and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for northern Mobile Bay,
western Choctawhatchee Bay, eastern Choctawhatchee Bay, Perdido
Bay, Pensacola Bay System beginning 4:00 PM CST Today.

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the coastal waters from
Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM, southern Mobile Bay,
Mississippi Sound beginning 6:00 AM CST Today.

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the waters from Pensacola
FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM, the western Florida waters
out 60 nm beginning 6:00 AM CST Today.

A Gale Warning is in effect for the waters from Pensacola FL to
Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM, the western Florida waters out
60 nm beginning 4:00 PM CST Today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for northern Mobile Bay,
western Choctawhatchee Bay, eastern Choctawhatchee Bay, Perdido
Bay, Pensacola Bay System until 9:00 AM CST Sunday.

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the coastal waters from
Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM, southern Mobile Bay,
Mississippi Sound until 12:00 AM CST Tuesday.

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the waters from Pensacola
FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM, the western Florida waters
out 60 nm until 4:00 PM CST Saturday.

A Gale Warning is in effect for the waters from Pensacola FL to
Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM, the western Florida waters out
60 nm until 9:00 AM CST Sunday.

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the waters from Pensacola
FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM, the western Florida waters
out 60 nm beginning 9:00 AM CST Sunday until 12:00 AM CST
Tuesday.

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Mississippi, 2019Every river flood warning in 2019

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.