River Flood Warning 4, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
532 AM CST Tue Jan 15 2019

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

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.AVIATION...
12Z issuance...Widespread MVFR ceilings will impact the area this
morning, before low clouds are expected to gradually scatter this
afternoon. Northerly winds 5-10 knots generally continue through
this afternoon. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 502 AM CST Tue Jan 15 2019/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Tuesday night/...A cool surface ridge of
high pressure continues to build from eastern Texas and Oklahoma to
the Mississippi Valley and the north central Gulf Coast region early
this morning. GOES-16 10.3-3.9 um imagery meanwhile shows extensive
low cloudiness blanketing much of the southeastern U.S. including
our entire CWA. NAM-12/RAP/HRRR low level relative humidity fields
indicate that the low cloud deck will likely persist through around
midday, before gradually eroding by this afternoon, though there is
some indication that low decks may persist into the afternoon over
interior southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama. The amount of
cloud cover/timing of cloud erosion will make for a challenging
temperature forecast again today. We have trended highs today toward
the coolest guidance, with readings generally ranging from around 50
to the mid 50s. We generally expect partly cloudy skies by tonight,
with more in the way of mid/high cloudiness associated with a weak
shortwave trough that will be moving over our region. A lack of
meaningful moisture with this feature will keep precipitation
chances near nil. Lighter winds are anticipated tonight as the
surface high builds over our area, and overnight lows should trend
colder in the lower to mid 30s over the interior, and in the upper
30s to lower 40s near the immediate coast. /21

SHORT TERM /Wednesday Through Thursday night/...Surface high
pressure gradually shifts east of the area as an upper shortwave
moves across the Ohio Valley. A associated cold front moves in the
southeastern states and stalls just north of the area Thursday
night. As the high moves east, a southerly return flow will
develop with deep layer moisture returning to the area. Chances
for showers increase on Thursday as the front approaches the
area. Temperatures will also increase into the low 60s on
Wednesday and mid 60s on Thursday.

LONG TERM /Friday Through Monday/...The stalled front moves
rapidly north on Friday as a more significant trough amplifies
across the southwestern states. As this trough ejects eastward, a
sfc low will develop across the plains and tracks eastward. A
trailing cold front will advance eastward into the area Saturday
afternoon and evening with a line of showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms. At this time, instability looks to remain weak and
severe storms are not expected, although an isolated strong storm
cannot be ruled out. However, the coldest air of season will
follow in the wake of the front for early next week. Highs on
Saturday will climb to around 70 in advance of the front. Behind
the front, highs on Sunday and Monday will only reach the low to
mid 40s under strong cold advection. Breezy northwest winds will
also make it feel even colder. Lows on Sunday night will fall into
the lower 20s across inland areas with upper 20s to near 30 along
the coast with wind chills in the mid and upper teens. /13

MARINE...A light to moderate offshore flow will continue over the
marine area today and tonight as high pressure builds across the
north central Gulf Coast. A light to moderate southerly flow returns
Wednesday night and continues through Friday night as high pressure
shifts east of the region. Onshore flow will strengthen Saturday
ahead of an approaching low pressure system and cold front. Winds
will quickly turn northwesterly late Saturday night as the strong
cold front moves across the marine area. A strong offshore flow will
continue Sunday into at least early Monday morning. Hazardous
conditions for small craft appear likely this weekend, and we may
even need to monitor for near gale force gusts late Saturday night
into Sunday evening in the wake of the frontal passage. /21

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mobile AL
549 AM CST Tue Jan 15 2019

ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-161200-
Choctaw-Washington-Clarke-Wilcox-Monroe-Conecuh-Butler-Crenshaw-
Escambia-Covington-Mobile Inland-Baldwin Inland-Mobile Central-
Baldwin Central-Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Inland-
Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Inland-Santa Rosa Coastal-
Okaloosa Inland-Okaloosa Coastal-Wayne-Perry-Greene-Stone-George-
549 AM CST Tue Jan 15 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Alabama...southwest Alabama...northwest Florida and southeast
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

A moderate risk of rip currents is expected to develop along area
beaches Thursday through Thursday night and Friday night.

A high risk of rip currents is expected to develop along area
beaches Saturday through Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675-161200-
Northern Mobile Bay-Southern Mobile Bay-Mississippi Sound-
Perdido Bay-Pensacola Bay System-Western Choctawhatchee Bay-
Eastern Choctawhatchee Bay-
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola
FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL from
20 to 60 NM-
549 AM CST Tue Jan 15 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the coastal
waters of Alabama and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Strong winds and building seas will create hazardous boating
conditions for small craft Saturday through Sunday night.