Alert archive / Mississippi / River Flood Warnings in 2019

River Flood Warning 18, NWS Mobile, AL

February 19, 2019George County, Greene County, Wayne County, Mississippi

NWS Mobile, AL issued this river flood warning at Feb 19, 2019, 11:14 AM CST for George County, Greene County, Wayne County, Mississippi. It took effect at Feb 22, 2019, 7:30 AM CST. It was in force for 18 days.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Feb 19, 2019, 11:14 AM CST (17:14 UTC)
In effect from
Feb 22, 2019, 7:30 AM CST
Expired
Mar 12, 2019, 12:14 PM CDT
In force
18 days
Issued by
NWS Mobile, AL
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
Minor

Counties George County, MS, Greene County, MS, Wayne County, MS

The radar

The Mobile radar (KMOB), 68 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:18 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Chickasawhay River at Leakesville (LEKM6). The gauge peaked at 26.41 ft at Mar 1, 2019, 4:00 AM CST.

actionminormoderate15202502/1902/2002/2102/2202/2302/2402/2502/2602/2702/2803/0103/0203/0303/0403/0503/0603/0703/0803/0903/1003/1103/1203/13
Action stage
15 ft
Minor stage
20 ft
Moderate stage
28 ft
Major stage
31 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 02478500, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted.

935 
WGUS44 KMOB 191714
FLWMOB
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
1114 AM CST Tue Feb 19 2019



...The National Weather Service in Mobile has issued a flood warning for the 
following rivers in Mississippi... 

  Chickasawhay At Leakesville affecting George...Greene and Wayne Counties.

.Heavy rainfall is forecast to occur over the next few days. As a result...river
levels are forecast to rise and a flood warning is now in effect.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-153-201713-
/O.NEW.KMOB.FL.W.0018.190223T0936Z-000000T0000Z/
/LEKM6.1.ER.190223T0936Z.190226T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1114 AM CST Tue Feb 19 2019

The National Weather Service in Mobile has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  The Chickasawhay At Leakesville
* From late Friday night until further notice
* At 10 AM Tuesday the stage was...13.9 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast 
* Flood stage is 20 feet. 
* Forecast to rise above flood stage on Saturday morning and continue to rise 
  near 23.5 feet by Monday evening. Additional rises are possible thereafter.
* At 20 feet...Flooding of lowlands will occur.
* At 22 feet...Flooding of lowlands continues and some roads in low lying 
  areas become cut off by high water.

&&

LAT...LON 3144 8857 3144 8846 3108 8854 3098 8873
 3100 8875 3110 8858                  

$$
29 follow-up statements
624 
WGUS84 KMOB 201726
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
1126 AM CST Wed Feb 20 2019
 

...The flood warning continues for the following river in Mississippi...
 
  Chickasawhay At Leakesville affecting George...Greene and Wayne Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-153-211726-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0018.190223T0800Z-000000T0000Z/
/LEKM6.1.ER.190223T0800Z.190226T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1126 AM CST Wed Feb 20 2019

...Flood Warning extended until further notice for
  the Chickasawhay At Leakesville
* From early Saturday morning until further notice.
* At 10 AM Wednesday the stage was 13.5 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 20 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by early Saturday morning and continue to 
  rise near 23.5 feet by Monday evening. Additional rises are possible 
  thereafter.
* At 20 feet...Flooding of lowlands will occur.
* At 22 feet...Flooding of lowlands continues and some roads in low lying 
  areas become cut off by high water.

&&

LAT...LON 3144 8857 3144 8846 3108 8854 3098 8873
 3100 8875 3110 8858                  

$$
935 
WGUS84 KMOB 210436
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
1036 PM CST Wed Feb 20 2019
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Mississippi...
 
  Chickasawhay At Leakesville affecting George...Greene and Wayne Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-153-220435-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0018.190223T0800Z-000000T0000Z/
/LEKM6.1.ER.190223T0800Z.190226T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1036 PM CST Wed Feb 20 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Chickasawhay At Leakesville
* From early Saturday morning until further notice.
* At 10 PM Wednesday the stage was 13.7 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 20 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by early Saturday morning and continue to 
  rise near 23.5 feet by Monday evening. Additional rises are possible 
  thereafter.
* At 22.0 feet...Flooding of lowlands continues and some roads in low lying 
  areas become cut off by high water.

&&

LAT...LON 3144 8857 3144 8846 3108 8854 3098 8873
 3100 8875 3110 8858                  

$$
942 
WGUS84 KMOB 211616
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
1016 AM CST Thu Feb 21 2019
 

...The flood warning continues for the following river in Mississippi...
 
  Chickasawhay At Leakesville affecting George...Greene and Wayne Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-153-221615-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0018.190223T0936Z-000000T0000Z/
/LEKM6.1.ER.190223T0936Z.190226T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1016 AM CST Thu Feb 21 2019

...Flood Warning extended until further notice for
  the Chickasawhay At Leakesville
* From Saturday morning until further notice.
* At 9 AM Thursday the stage was 15.0 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 20 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by Saturday morning and continue to rise 
  near 23.5 feet by Tuesday morning. Additional rises are possible thereafter.
* At 22 feet...Flooding of lowlands continues and some roads in low lying 
  areas become cut off by high water.

&&

LAT...LON 3144 8857 3144 8846 3108 8854 3098 8873
 3100 8875 3110 8858                  

$$
260 
WGUS84 KMOB 220159
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
759 PM CST Thu Feb 21 2019
 

...The flood warning continues for the following river in Mississippi...
 
  Chickasawhay At Leakesville affecting George...Greene and Wayne Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-153-230158-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0018.190222T1330Z-000000T0000Z/
/LEKM6.1.ER.190222T1330Z.190227T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
759 PM CST Thu Feb 21 2019

...Flood Warning extended until further notice for
  the Chickasawhay At Leakesville
* From tomorrow morning until further notice.
* At 7 PM Thursday the stage was 17.8 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 20 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by tomorrow morning and continue to rise 
  near 26 feet by Wednesday afternoon. Additional rises are possible thereafter.
* At 20 feet...Flooding of lowlands will occur.
* At 22 feet...Flooding of lowlands continues and some roads in low lying areas 
  become cut off by high water.
* At 26 feet...Flooding at the highway bridge begins.

&&

LAT...LON 3144 8857 3144 8846 3108 8854 3098 8873
 3100 8875 3110 8858                  

$$
525 
WGUS84 KMOB 221705
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
1105 AM CST Fri Feb 22 2019
 

...The flood warning continues for the following river in Mississippi...
 
  Chickasawhay At Leakesville affecting George...Greene and Wayne Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-153-231704-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LEKM6.1.ER.190222T1450Z.190227T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1105 AM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Chickasawhay At Leakesville
* until further notice.
* At 10AM Friday the stage was 20.2 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 20 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 26 feet by Wednesday early afternoon.
  Additional rises may be possible thereafter.
* At 26 feet...Flooding at the highway bridge begins.

&&

LAT...LON 3144 8857 3144 8846 3108 8854 3098 8873
 3100 8875 3110 8858                  

$$
392 
WGUS84 KMOB 230112
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
712 PM CST Fri Feb 22 2019
 

...The flood warning continues for the following river in Mississippi...
 
  Chickasawhay At Leakesville affecting George...Greene and Wayne Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-153-240112-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LEKM6.1.ER.190222T1450Z.190227T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
712 PM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Chickasawhay At Leakesville
* until further notice.
* At 7 PM Friday the stage was 21.1 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 20 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 26 feet by Wednesday early afternoon.
  Additional rises are possible thereafter.
* At 20 feet...Flooding of lowlands will occur.
* At 22 feet...Flooding of lowlands continues and some roads in low lying areas 
  become cut off by high water.
* At 26 feet...Flooding at the highway bridge begins.

&&

LAT...LON 3144 8857 3144 8846 3108 8854 3098 8873
 3100 8875 3110 8858                  

$$
179 
WGUS84 KMOB 231750
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
1150 AM CST Sat Feb 23 2019
 

...The flood warning continues for the following river in Mississippi...
 
  Chickasawhay At Leakesville affecting George...Greene and Wayne Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-153-241750-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LEKM6.1.ER.190222T1450Z.190227T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1150 AM CST Sat Feb 23 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Chickasawhay At Leakesville
* until further notice.
* At 11 AM Saturday the stage was 22.3 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 20 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 26 feet by Wednesday early afternoon 
  then begin falling.
* At 26 feet...Flooding at the highway bridge begins.

&&

LAT...LON 3144 8857 3144 8846 3108 8854 3098 8873
 3100 8875 3110 8858                  

$$
354 
WGUS84 KMOB 251700
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
1100 AM CST Mon Feb 25 2019
 

...The flood warning continues for the following river in Mississippi...
 
  Chickasawhay At Leakesville affecting George...Greene and Wayne Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-153-261700-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LEKM6.1.ER.190222T1450Z.190227T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1100 AM CST Mon Feb 25 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Chickasawhay At Leakesville
* until further notice.
* At 9 AM Monday the stage was 24.6 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 20 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 26 feet by Wednesday morning 
  then begin falling.
* At 22 feet...Flooding of lowlands continues and some roads in low lying areas 
  become cut off by high water.
* At 26 feet...Flooding at the highway bridge begins.

&&

LAT...LON 3144 8857 3144 8846 3108 8854 3098 8873
 3100 8875 3110 8858                  

$$
091 
WGUS84 KMOB 260116
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
716 PM CST Mon Feb 25 2019
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Mississippi...
 
  Leaf Near Mclain affecting George...Greene and Perry Counties. 
  Chickasawhay At Leakesville affecting George...Greene and Wayne Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-111-270116-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-190301T0430Z/
/MCLM6.1.ER.190224T1255Z.190226T1200Z.190228T2230Z.NO/
716 PM CST Mon Feb 25 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Leaf Near Mclain
* until Thursday evening.
* At 6 PM Monday the stage was 20.3 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 18 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 20.5 feet by tomorrow morning. The 
  river will fall below flood stage  Thursday afternoon.
* At 18 feet...Considerable flooding of agricultural and lowlands near the 
  river.

&&

LAT...LON 3119 8914 3125 8914 3123 8885 3099 8871
 3098 8877 3114 8887                  

$$

MSC039-041-153-270116-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LEKM6.1.ER.190222T1450Z.190227T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
716 PM CST Mon Feb 25 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Chickasawhay At Leakesville
* until further notice.
* At 6 PM Monday the stage was 24.9 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 20 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 26 feet by early Wednesday morning 
  then begin falling.
* At 26 feet...Flooding at the highway bridge begins.

&&

LAT...LON 3144 8857 3144 8846 3108 8854 3098 8873
 3100 8875 3110 8858                  

$$
423 
WGUS84 KMOB 261659
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
1059 AM CST Tue Feb 26 2019
 

...The flood warning continues for the following river in Mississippi...
 
  Chickasawhay At Leakesville affecting George...Greene and Wayne Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-153-271659-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LEKM6.1.ER.190222T1450Z.190228T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1059 AM CST Tue Feb 26 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Chickasawhay At Leakesville
* until further notice.
* At 10 AM Tuesday the stage was 25.4 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 20 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 26 feet by tomorrow evening then 
  begin falling.
* At 26 feet...Flooding at the highway bridge begins.

&&

LAT...LON 3144 8857 3144 8846 3108 8854 3098 8873
 3100 8875 3110 8858                  

$$
722 
WGUS84 KMOB 270352
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
952 PM CST Tue Feb 26 2019
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Mississippi...
 
  Chickasawhay At Leakesville affecting George...Greene and Wayne Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-153-280352-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LEKM6.1.ER.190222T1450Z.190228T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
952 PM CST Tue Feb 26 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Chickasawhay At Leakesville
* until further notice.
* At 9 PM Tuesday the stage was 25.6 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 20 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 26 feet by tomorrow evening then 
  begin falling.
* At 26 feet...Flooding at the highway bridge begins.

&&

LAT...LON 3144 8857 3144 8846 3108 8854 3098 8873
 3100 8875 3110 8858                  

$$
896 
WGUS84 KMOB 271550
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
950 AM CST Wed Feb 27 2019
 

...The flood warning continues for the following river in Mississippi...
 
  Chickasawhay At Leakesville affecting George...Greene and Wayne Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-153-281549-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LEKM6.1.ER.190222T1450Z.190228T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
950 AM CST Wed Feb 27 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Chickasawhay At Leakesville
* until further notice.
* At 9 AM Wednesday the stage was 25.8 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 20 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 26 feet by after midnight tomorrow 
  then begin falling.
* At 26 feet...Flooding at the highway bridge begins.

&&

LAT...LON 3144 8857 3144 8846 3108 8854 3098 8873
 3100 8875 3110 8858                  

$$
268 
WGUS84 KMOB 280438
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
1038 PM CST Wed Feb 27 2019
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Mississippi...
 
  Chickasawhay At Leakesville affecting George...Greene and Wayne Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-153-010437-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LEKM6.1.ER.190222T1450Z.190228T0400Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1038 PM CST Wed Feb 27 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Chickasawhay At Leakesville
* until further notice.
* At 10 PM Wednesday the stage was 26 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 20 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 26 feet by after midnight tomorrow 
  then begin falling.
* At 26 feet...Flooding at the highway bridge begins.

&&

LAT...LON 3144 8857 3144 8846 3108 8854 3098 8873
 3100 8875 3110 8858                  

$$
070 
WGUS84 KMOB 281708
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
1108 AM CST Thu Feb 28 2019
 

...The flood warning continues for the following river in Mississippi...
 
  Chickasawhay At Leakesville affecting George...Greene and Wayne Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-153-011707-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LEKM6.1.ER.190222T1450Z.190301T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1108 AM CST Thu Feb 28 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Chickasawhay At Leakesville
* until further notice.
* At 10 AM Thursday the stage was 26.2 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 20 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 26.5 feet by tomorrow morning then 
  begin falling.
* At 26 feet...Flooding at the highway bridge begins.

&&

LAT...LON 3144 8857 3144 8846 3108 8854 3098 8873
 3100 8875 3110 8858                  

$$
183 
WGUS84 KMOB 011736
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
1136 AM CST Fri Mar 1 2019
 

...The flood warning continues for the following river in Mississippi...
 
  Chickasawhay At Leakesville affecting George...Greene and Wayne Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-153-021736-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LEKM6.1.ER.190222T1450Z.190301T1215Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1136 AM CST Fri Mar 1 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Chickasawhay At Leakesville
* until further notice.
* At 11 AM Friday the stage was 26.3 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 20 feet.
* The river is cresting at 26.3 feet and should begin slowly
  falling this evening.
* At 22 feet...Flooding of lowlands continues and some roads in low lying 
  areas become cut off by high water.
* At 26 feet...Flooding at the highway bridge begins.

&&

LAT...LON 3144 8857 3144 8846 3108 8854 3098 8873
 3100 8875 3110 8858                  

$$
760 
WGUS84 KMOB 020301
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
901 PM CST Fri Mar 1 2019
 

...The flood warning continues for the following river in Mississippi...
 
  Chickasawhay At Leakesville affecting George...Greene and Wayne Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-153-030301-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LEKM6.1.ER.190222T1450Z.190301T1215Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
901 PM CST Fri Mar 1 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Chickasawhay At Leakesville
* until further notice.
* At 8 PM Friday the stage was 26.1 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 20 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to a stage of 25.8 feet by early Sunday morning.
* At 22 feet...Flooding of lowlands continues and some roads in low lying 
  areas become cut off by high water.
* At 26 feet...Flooding at the highway bridge begins.

&&

LAT...LON 3144 8857 3144 8846 3108 8854 3098 8873
 3100 8875 3110 8858                  

$$
904 
WGUS84 KMOB 021627
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
1027 AM CST Sat Mar 2 2019
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Mississippi...
 
  Chickasawhay At Leakesville affecting George...Greene and Wayne Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-153-031626-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LEKM6.1.ER.190222T1450Z.190301T1215Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1027 AM CST Sat Mar 2 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Chickasawhay At Leakesville
* until further notice.
* At 9 AM Saturday the stage was 25.8 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 20 feet.
* The river will continue falling through afternoon. Additional rises possible thereafter.
* At 26 feet...Flooding at the highway bridge begins.

&&

LAT...LON 3144 8857 3144 8846 3108 8854 3098 8873
 3100 8875 3110 8858                  

$$
664 
WGUS84 KMOB 030249
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
849 PM CST Sat Mar 2 2019
 

...The flood warning continues for the following river in Mississippi...
 
  Chickasawhay At Leakesville affecting George...Greene and Wayne Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-153-040248-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LEKM6.1.ER.190222T1450Z.190301T1215Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
849 PM CST Sat Mar 2 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Chickasawhay At Leakesville
* until further notice.
* At 8 PM Saturday the stage was 25.2 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 20 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 25.7 feet by Thursday morning then 
  begin falling.
* At 26 feet...Flooding at the highway bridge begins.

&&

LAT...LON 3144 8857 3144 8846 3108 8854 3098 8873
 3100 8875 3110 8858                  

$$
848 
WGUS84 KMOB 031625
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
1025 AM CST Sun Mar 3 2019
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Mississippi...
 
  Chickasawhay At Leakesville affecting George...Greene and Wayne Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-153-041624-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LEKM6.1.ER.190222T1450Z.190301T1215Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1025 AM CST Sun Mar 3 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Chickasawhay At Leakesville
* until further notice.
* At 10 AM Sunday the stage was 24.5 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 20 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to a stage of 23.9 feet by Monday morning.
* At 26 feet...Flooding at the highway bridge begins.

&&

LAT...LON 3144 8857 3144 8846 3108 8854 3098 8873
 3100 8875 3110 8858                  

$$
366 
WGUS84 KMOB 040248
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
848 PM CST Sun Mar 3 2019
 

...The flood warning continues for the following river in Mississippi...
 
  Chickasawhay At Leakesville affecting George...Greene and Wayne Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-153-050247-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LEKM6.1.ER.190222T1450Z.190301T1215Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
848 PM CST Sun Mar 3 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Chickasawhay At Leakesville
* until further notice.
* At 8 PM Sunday the stage was 24.1 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 20 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 24.5 feet by Wednesday evening then 
  begin falling.
* At 26 feet...Flooding at the highway bridge begins.

&&

LAT...LON 3144 8857 3144 8846 3108 8854 3098 8873
 3100 8875 3110 8858                  

$$
586 
WGUS84 KMOB 041544
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
944 AM CST Mon Mar 4 2019
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Mississippi...
 
  Chickasawhay At Leakesville affecting George...Greene and Wayne Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-153-051543-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LEKM6.1.ER.190222T1450Z.190301T1215Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
944 AM CST Mon Mar 4 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Chickasawhay At Leakesville
* until further notice.
* At 9 AM Monday the stage was 23.7 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 20 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 24.5 feet by Wednesday evening then 
  begin falling.
* At 26 feet...Flooding at the highway bridge begins.

&&

LAT...LON 3144 8857 3144 8846 3108 8854 3098 8873
 3100 8875 3110 8858                  

$$
671 
WGUS84 KMOB 050251
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
851 PM CST Mon Mar 4 2019
 

...The flood warning continues for the following river in Mississippi...
 
  Chickasawhay At Leakesville affecting George...Greene and Wayne Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-153-060250-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LEKM6.1.ER.190222T1450Z.190301T1215Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
851 PM CST Mon Mar 4 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Chickasawhay At Leakesville
* until further notice.
* At 8 PM Monday the stage was 23.4 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 20 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 23.6 feet by after midnight tomorrow 
  then begin falling.
* At 22 feet...Flooding of lowlands continues and some roads in low lying 
  areas become cut off by high water.

&&

LAT...LON 3144 8857 3144 8846 3108 8854 3098 8873
 3100 8875 3110 8858                  

$$
733 
WGUS84 KMOB 051648
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
1048 AM CST Tue Mar 5 2019
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Mississippi...
 
  Leaf Near Mclain affecting George...Greene and Perry Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-111-061647-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-190307T2136Z/
/MCLM6.1.ER.190224T1255Z.190304T2000Z.190307T1536Z.NO/
1048 AM CST Tue Mar 5 2019

...Flood Warning extended until Thursday afternoon...The Flood Warning continues
for
  the Leaf Near Mclain
* until Thursday afternoon.
* At 10 AM Tuesday the stage was 20.8 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 18 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by late Thursday morning.
* At 18 feet...Considerable flooding of agricultural and lowlands near the 
  river.

&&

LAT...LON 3119 8914 3125 8914 3123 8885 3099 8871
 3098 8877 3114 8887                  

$$
143 
WGUS84 KMOB 060243
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
843 PM CST Tue Mar 5 2019
 
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Mississippi...
 
  Chickasawhay At Leakesville affecting George...Greene and Wayne Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-153-070242-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-190309T2230Z/
/LEKM6.1.ER.190222T1450Z.190301T1215Z.190309T1630Z.NO/
843 PM CST Tue Mar 5 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Chickasawhay At Leakesville
* until Saturday afternoon.
* At 8 PM Tuesday the stage was 22.8 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* The river will continue a slow fall and is forecast to fall below 20 feet
  by Saturday morning. 
* At 22.0 feet...Flooding of lowlands continues and some roads in low lying 
  areas become cut off by high water.

&&

LAT...LON 3144 8857 3144 8846 3108 8854 3098 8873
 3100 8875 3110 8858                  

$$
859 
WGUS84 KMOB 061549
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
949 AM CST Wed Mar 6 2019
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Mississippi...
 
  Chickasawhay At Leakesville affecting George...Greene and Wayne Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-153-071549-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-190309T0430Z/
/LEKM6.1.ER.190222T1450Z.190301T1215Z.190308T2230Z.NO/
949 AM CST Wed Mar 6 2019

...Flood Warning extended until Friday evening...The Flood Warning continues for
  the Chickasawhay At Leakesville
* until Friday evening.
* At 9 AM Wednesday the stage was 22.4 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 20 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by Friday afternoon.
* At 22 feet...Flooding of lowlands continues and some roads in low lying 
  areas become cut off by high water.

&&

LAT...LON 3144 8857 3144 8846 3108 8854 3098 8873
 3100 8875 3110 8858                  

$$
441 
WGUS84 KMOB 070341
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
941 PM CST Wed Mar 6 2019
 

...The flood warning continues for the following river in Mississippi...
 
  Chickasawhay At Leakesville affecting George...Greene and Wayne Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-153-080340-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-190309T0300Z/
/LEKM6.1.ER.190222T1450Z.190301T1215Z.190308T2100Z.NO/
941 PM CST Wed Mar 6 2019

...Flood Warning extended until Friday evening for
  the Chickasawhay At Leakesville
* until Friday evening.
* At 9 PM Wednesday the stage was 22 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 20 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by Friday afternoon.
* At 20 feet...Flooding of lowlands will occur.
* At 22 feet...Flooding of lowlands continues and some roads in low lying 
  areas become cut off by high water.

&&

LAT...LON 3144 8857 3144 8846 3108 8854 3098 8873
 3100 8875 3110 8858                  

$$
791 
WGUS84 KMOB 071617
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
1017 AM CST Thu Mar 7 2019
 

...The flood warning continues for the following river in Mississippi...
 
  Chickasawhay At Leakesville affecting George...Greene and Wayne Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-153-081616-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-190308T1930Z/
/LEKM6.1.ER.190222T1450Z.190301T1215Z.190308T1330Z.NO/
1017 AM CST Thu Mar 7 2019

...Flood Warning extended until Friday afternoon...The Flood Warning continues 
for
  the Chickasawhay At Leakesville
* until Friday afternoon.
* At 9 AM Thursday the stage was 21.2 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 20 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by tomorrow morning.
* At 22 feet...Flooding of lowlands continues and some roads in low lying 
  areas become cut off by high water.

&&

LAT...LON 3144 8857 3144 8846 3108 8854 3098 8873
 3100 8875 3110 8858                  

$$
933 
WGUS84 KMOB 080441
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
1041 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2019
 

...The flood warning continues for the following river in Mississippi...
 
  Chickasawhay At Leakesville affecting George...Greene and Wayne Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-153-081630-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-190308T1630Z/
/LEKM6.1.ER.190222T1450Z.190301T1215Z.190308T1030Z.NO/
1041 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2019

...Flood Warning extended until Friday morning for
  the Chickasawhay At Leakesville
* until Friday morning.
* At 10 PM Thursday the stage was 20.3 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 20 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by early tomorrow.
* At 20 feet...Flooding of lowlands will occur.

&&

LAT...LON 3144 8857 3144 8846 3108 8854 3098 8873
 3100 8875 3110 8858                  

$$
230 
WGUS84 KMOB 081548
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
948 AM CST Fri Mar 8 2019
 

...The flood warning is canceled for the following rivers in Alabama...
Mississippi...
 
  Alabama River Near Millers Ferry Dam affecting Dallas...Monroe and Wilcox 
  Counties.
  Chickasawhay At Leakesville affecting George...Greene and Wayne Counties.
...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...
 
  Bayou Sara At Saraland affecting Mobile County. 
  Mobile River At Barry Steam Plant affecting Baldwin and Mobile Counties. 
  Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam affecting Choctaw...Clarke and 
  Washington Counties. 
  Tombigbee River Near Leroy affecting Choctaw...Clarke and Washington 
  Counties. 
  Alabama River Near Claiborne Dam - Tailwater affecting Clarke...Monroe and 
  Wilcox Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

ALC097-091548-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0026.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/SARA1.2.ER.190303T0042Z.190308T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
948 AM CST Fri Mar 8 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Bayou Sara At Saraland
* until further notice.
* At 9 AM Friday the stage was 5.5 feet. 
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 4.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 5.6 feet by this afternoon, then begin 
  falling.
* At 6.0 feet...Flooding of residences in the area will occur.

&&

LAT...LON 3084 8808 3083 8804 3082 8805 3082 8808


$$

ALC023-025-129-091548-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CLDA1.2.ER.190221T1854Z.190304T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
948 AM CST Fri Mar 8 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam
* until further notice.
* At 9 AM Friday the stage was 41.1 feet. 
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 29.0 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to a stage of 31.4 feet by Wednesday morning.
* At 40.0 feet...Widespread flooding of timber and pastureland is occurring. Portions of 
  State Highway 114 east of the river becomes covered by water. Cabins on Old 
  Ferry Road are flood.

&&

LAT...LON 3231 8805 3232 8791 3178 8809 3160 8804
 3160 8810 3178 8822                  

$$

ALC023-025-129-091548-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LRYA1.3.ER.190221T0720Z.190302T1600Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
948 AM CST Fri Mar 8 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Tombigbee River Near Leroy
* until further notice.
* At 9 AM Friday the stage was 30.5 feet. 
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to a stage of 26.6 feet by Wednesday morning.
* At 30.0 feet...Roads leading into the Powersouth power plant will begin to 
  flood, along with roads along the east side of the river.

&&

LAT...LON 3160 8810 3160 8804 3149 8786 3114 8792
 3114 8802 3149 8793                  

$$

ALC003-097-091548-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0024.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/BCKA1.1.ER.190301T0530Z.190308T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
948 AM CST Fri Mar 8 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Mobile River At Barry Steam Plant
* until further notice.
* At 9 AM Friday the stage was 14.3 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* The river will remain around 14.3 feet through this afternoon, then begin 
  falling.
* At 12.0 feet...Considerable overflow of lowlands in the area. A few county 
  roads become flooded.

&&

LAT...LON 3114 8797 3114 8792 3099 8792 3068 8796
 3067 8806 3102 8803                  

$$

ALC047-099-131-081618-
/O.CAN.KMOB.FL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-190309T1424Z/
/MRFA1.1.ER.190224T1530Z.190305T0100Z.190308T1340Z.NO/
948 AM CST Fri Mar 8 2019

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Alabama River Near Millers Ferry Dam
* until Saturday morning.
* At 8 AM Friday the stage was 65.9 feet, and is expected to continue to fall. 
* Flood stage is 66.0 feet.
* At 66.0 feet...Farm and pasturelands in the area will flood and cattle should 
  be moved to higher ground.

&&

LAT...LON 3215 8726 3205 8719 3203 8732 3184 8738
 3184 8756 3215 8749                  

$$

ALC025-099-131-091548-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CLBA1.1.ER.190223T2317Z.190306T1100Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
948 AM CST Fri Mar 8 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Alabama River Near Claiborne Dam - Tailwater
* until further notice.
* At 8 AM Friday the stage was 46.6 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 42.0 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to a stage of 42.8 feet by Wednesday morning.
* At 49.0 feet...Recreational areas around the Lock and Dam begin to flood.

&&

LAT...LON 3184 8756 3184 8738 3146 8753 3114 8786
 3114 8797 3150 8766                  

$$

MSC039-041-153-081618-
/O.CAN.KMOB.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-190308T1630Z/
/LEKM6.1.ER.190222T1450Z.190301T1215Z.190308T0822Z.NO/
948 AM CST Fri Mar 8 2019

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Chickasawhay At Leakesville
* until this morning.
* At 9 AM Friday the stage was 19.5 feet, and is expected to conitnue to fall. 
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* At 20.0 feet...Flooding of lowlands will occur.

&&

LAT...LON 3144 8857 3144 8846 3108 8854 3098 8873
 3100 8875 3110 8858                  

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Mobile, AL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Feb 19, 6:18 AM CST, 4 hours 56 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 19, 6:18 AM CST, 4 hours 56 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
618 AM CST Tue Feb 19 2019

.DISCUSSION...See updated information for land areas and aviation
discussion below.

&&

.UPDATE...We updated the forecast to include mention of thunder
this morning across interior southeast MS and southwest AL. Radar
shows a small batch of elevated convection approaching northern
Wayne and Choctaw counties. Frequent lightning, brief heavy rain,
and possibly brief very small hail may accompany these stronger
storm cells early this morning.

We have also extended the High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday
night as increasing onshore flow, long period swell, and high
tidal ranges promote the potential for deadly rip currents along
area beaches. /21

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z issuance...Ceilings are expected to gradually lower from MVFR
today to IFR or lower this evening into late tonight. Patchy fog
may reduced visibility to at least MVFR levels late tonight into
Wednesday morning. Scattered to numerous rain showers will spread
across the region through tonight. A few thunderstorms will also
be possible across southeast MS and portions of southwest AL.
Northeast winds 10-15 knots early this morning gradually become
east to southeast late this morning into this afternoon. Winds may
gust to around 20 knots at times today. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 500 AM CST Tue Feb 19 2019/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Tuesday night/...A southwest mid to upper
level flow pattern prevails across the north central Gulf Coast
region early this morning well in advance of a deep trough extending
from the Intermountain West to the Desert Southwest. A broad surface
ridge of high pressure extends from the northern Plains to the Mid-
Atlantic region early this morning, and our area remains on the
southern extent of this ridge axis. A cool and dry northeasterly
flow continues near the surface across our region early this
morning, with a fairly solid shield of low clouds in place overhead.

A fairly challenging forecast continues across our region for today
and tonight given the overall synoptic and upper air pattern. Short
range model guidance indicates that deep layer moisture and ascent
will increase from northeast Texas through the Mid-Mississippi and
Tennessee Valley regions today courtesy of a strengthening low level
jet across this region in advance of a shortwave trough that will
eject across southwestern Texas. Our forecast area will remain on
the southeastern fringe of this stronger region of ascent, but deep
layer moistening does occur across our area today with precipitable
water values forecast to rise to around 1.5" with increasing low
level warm advection/southerly 850 mb flow. Isentropic ascent in
this moistening regime should result in the development of scattered
to locally numerous rain showers today, and have drawn the best POPs
of 50-60% over western and northern portions of the area, with lower
POPs around 30% over our eastern and southeastern zones, where
moisture and ascent looks to be a bit more limited. Low level
moistening may result in just enough elevated instability to bring a
slight chance of a thunderstorm or two to our western zones today,
and have included mention of thunder in the forecast there.
Northeasterly surface flow this morning gradually becomes more east
to southeast by this afternoon as an area of low pressure lifts
toward southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana. Highs today are
forecast to range from the upper 50s to lower 60s over interior
areas and in the mid to upper 60s over the southern half of the
region.

The aforementioned surface low should continue to lift northeast
toward northeast Louisiana and western Mississippi tonight, allowing
the boundary that has been draped offshore to lift northeastward as
a warm front across southeast Mississippi and into much of southwest
Alabama through late tonight. Warm advection should allow for a
gradual rise in temperatures and dewpoints behind the passing warm
front tonight, and lows may actually occur early in the evening in
some areas. Deep layer moistening/ascent ahead of the approaching
low pressure system should result in a continued good chance of
showers across southeast Mississippi and adjacent southwest Alabama
tonight, where we will keep likely POPs in place. Isolated
thunderstorms are also possible over these western zones tonight as
MLCAPE values rise to 500-800 J/KG, and we may even have to monitor
for a couple of strong storms toward early Wednesday morning over
our far west/northwest zones where up to 40-45 knots of 850 mb flow
will be in place. /21

SHORT TERM /Wednesday Through Thursday night/...Heavy downpours
and strong thunderstorms are expected Wednesday afternoon lasting
through Thursday. This could pose a particular hazard for our
counties in southeastern Mississippi and southwestern Alabama. A
shortwave trough over eastern Oklahoma assists in creating a broad
surface low over central Mississippi. By Wednesday morning
convection will have already initiated along cold front of the low
pressure system. These thunderstorms are expected to be quite potent
as they will have access to over 50 kts of effective layer shear and
near 1500 J/kg of CAPE. Moreover since the wind shear expected to be
near unidirectional, it is most likely that a linear system of
strong thunderstorms will form in central Mississippi then slowly
shift eastward into our forecast area throughout the day Wednesday.
However as the aforementioned shortwave ejects northeastward into
the Great Lakes region, the line is expected to lose its progression
and stall near the AL/MS state border. If this occurs, the flash
flood potential of the system drastically increases by Wednesday
evening into the overnight hours. The southwesterly upper level flow
is anticipated to advect in record setting precipitable water values
nearing or exceeding 1.80 inches. As such the thunderstorms that
form in this environment will be heavy rain producers. By the early
morning Thursday, rainfall totals could be nearing 1-3 inches along
and west of the Tombigbee River with isolated higher amounts
especially around Perry, Wayne, and Choctaw counties.

Lingering showers along the boundary in the northern half of our
forecast area may persist into the late morning Thursday while at
the same time new showers over the Gulf come on shore assisted by
the Bermuda High. Low level convergence along the stalled front
could produce additional scattered showers throughout the central
Gulf coast though some model disagreement exists on how potent these
storms are expected to be. Regardless areas not effected by rain
could see temperature creep back into the upper 70s as constant
southerly winds will prevent the boundary from penetrating south.
Overnight lows are anticipated to be well above average as well
owing to dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. DJ/17

LONG TERM /Friday Through Monday/...The surface boundary shifts
north as a warm front Friday with scattered warm advection
showers possible by the afternoon and evening. These showers
should be relatively light as the moisture axis is expected to
remain west of our area. During the overnight hours the long wave
trough over the Southwest finally begins to move east driven by
the progression of an embedded shortwave. By early Saturday
morning models depict this shortwave over northern Texas beginning
to take on a negative tilt though locally rain chances are small
during the day Saturday caused by dry air in the mid levels. The
associated surface low over Kansas and trailing cold front along
the Mississippi River shifts the moisture axis eastward during the
overnight hours. The front should initiation another linear
system of storms along the boundary which will travel across our
forecast area during the morning. Then by mid day Sunday, the
front should also have the pleasant effect of clearing our skies
and dropping our daily high temperatures back to near normal
values in the mid 60s to start the work week next week. DJ/17

MARINE...A moderate to strong northeasterly to easterly flow early
this morning will gradually become southeast this evening and
tonight as high pressure shifts toward the Eastern Seaboard and as
low pressure lifts from the northwest Gulf toward Mississippi. Winds
will continue to average between 15-25 knots over the coastal waters
out 60 nm, including Lower Mobile Bay and the Mississippi Sound east
of Pascagoula through late tonight. Seas also average 5-7 feet near
shore and 6-8 feet well offshore, so will continue a Small Craft
Advisory for these locations effective through late tonight. A light
to moderate southerly wind flow will prevail Thursday through
Saturday as high pressure continues to shift east and as the next
area of low pressure develops over the southwestern states. Areas of
fog will likely develop late this week with the return of onshore
flow. /21

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk from noon CST today through late Wednesday
     night for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from noon CST today through late Wednesday
     night for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CST Wednesday for GMZ631-632-650-
     655-670-675.

&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob
Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 19, 6:46 AM CST, 4 hours 28 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mobile AL
646 AM CST Tue Feb 19 2019

ALZ051>054-261-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-201300-
Choctaw-Washington-Clarke-Wilcox-Mobile Inland-Wayne-Perry-Greene-
Stone-George-
646 AM CST Tue Feb 19 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Alabama...southwest Alabama and southeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Showers along with a few thunderstorms will increase in coverage
across the region Wednesday into Thursday. There is a Marginal
Risk of severe storms across southeast Mississippi and interior
southwest Alabama Wednesday and Wednesday night, where localized
damaging wind gusts or a brief tornado will be possible. Locally
heavy rainfall will also bring a limited threat of flooding to
this region Wednesday and Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be requested Wednesday and Wednesday night.

ALZ055>060-262>264-FLZ201-203-205-201300-
Monroe-Conecuh-Butler-Crenshaw-Escambia-Covington-Baldwin Inland-
Mobile Central-Baldwin Central-Escambia Inland-Santa Rosa Inland-
Okaloosa Inland-
646 AM CST Tue Feb 19 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Alabama...southwest Alabama and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

A few strong thunderstorms with locally heavy rain will be
possible Wednesday through Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

ALZ265-266-FLZ202-204-206-GMZ633-201300-
Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Coastal-
Santa Rosa Coastal-Okaloosa Coastal-Perdido Bay-
646 AM CST Tue Feb 19 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Alabama...northwest Florida and the coastal waters of Alabama and
northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a high risk of rip currents along the Alabama and western
Florida panhandle beaches this afternoon through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

A high risk of rip currents will continue along the Alabama and
western Florida panhandle beaches Wednesday and Wednesday night.

A few strong thunderstorms with locally heavy rain will be
possible Wednesday through Thursday.

GMZ630>632-634>636-650-655-670-675-201300-
Northern Mobile Bay-Southern Mobile Bay-Mississippi Sound-
Pensacola Bay System-Western Choctawhatchee Bay-
Eastern Choctawhatchee Bay-
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola
FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL from
20 to 60 NM-
646 AM CST Tue Feb 19 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the coastal
waters of Alabama and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through late tonight for the
Alabama and western Florida panhandle waters out 60 nautical
miles, including southern Mobile Bay and the Mississippi Sound.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

A few strong thunderstorms with locally heavy rain will be
possible Wednesday through Thursday.

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Mississippi, 2019Every river flood warning in 2019

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.