River Flood Warning 1, NWS Mobile, AL

484 
WGUS84 KMOB 021638
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
1038 AM CST Wed Jan 2 2019
 

...The flood warning continues for the following river in Alabama...
 
  Conecuh River At Brewton affecting Covington and Escambia Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

ALC039-053-031636-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0001.190104T0600Z-190105T0000Z/
/BWTA1.1.ER.190104T0600Z.190104T1200Z.190104T1800Z.NO/
1038 AM CST Wed Jan 2 2019

...Flood Warning extended until Friday evening...The Flood Warning continues for
  the Conecuh River At Brewton
* From early Friday morning until Friday evening.
* At 9 AM Wednesday the stage was 25.9 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 27 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by early Friday morning and continue to 
  rise near 27.1 feet by Friday morning. The river will fall below flood stage 
  by Friday evening.
* At 27 feet...Flooding of farmland. Cattle should be moved to higher ground.

&&

LAT...LON 3118 8680 3111 8676 3103 8709 3107 8712


$$

478 
WGUS84 KMOB 031616
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
1016 AM CST Thu Jan 3 2019
 

...The flood warning continues for the following river in Alabama...
 
  Conecuh River At Brewton affecting Covington and Escambia Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

ALC039-053-041200-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0001.190104T0000Z-190104T1200Z/
/BWTA1.1.ER.190104T0000Z.190104T0000Z.190104T0600Z.NO/
1016 AM CST Thu Jan 3 2019

...Flood Warning extended until Friday morning for
  the Conecuh River At Brewton
* From this evening until Friday morning.
* At 9 AM Thursday the stage was 26.8 feet. 
* No flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 27 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by this evening and continue to rise near 
  27 feet by this evening. The river will fall below flood stage by early Friday morning.
* At 27 feet...Flooding of farmland. Cattle should be moved to higher ground.

&&

LAT...LON 3118 8680 3111 8676 3103 8709 3107 8712


$$

156 
WGUS84 KMOB 040204
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
804 PM CST Thu Jan 3 2019
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...
 
  Conecuh River At Brewton affecting Covington and Escambia Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

ALC039-053-050205-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-190105T1800Z/
/BWTA1.1.ER.190103T2345Z.190104T1200Z.190105T1200Z.NO/
804 PM CST Thu Jan 3 2019

...Flood Warning extended until Saturday afternoon...The Flood Warning continues
for
  the Conecuh River At Brewton
* until Saturday afternoon.
* At 7 PM Thursday the stage was 27 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 27 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 27.2 feet by tomorrow morning. The 
  river will fall below flood stage by Saturday morning.
* At 27 feet...Flooding of farmland. Cattle should be moved to higher ground.

&&

LAT...LON 3118 8680 3111 8676 3103 8709 3107 8712


$$

916 
WGUS84 KMOB 041710
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
1110 AM CST Fri Jan 4 2019
 

...The flood warning continues for the following river in Alabama...
 
  Conecuh River At Brewton affecting Covington and Escambia Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

ALC039-053-051710-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-190105T1800Z/
/BWTA1.1.ER.190103T2345Z.190104T1545Z.190105T1200Z.NO/
1110 AM CST Fri Jan 4 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Conecuh River At Brewton
* until Saturday afternoon.
* At 10 AM Friday the stage was 27.3 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 27 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by tomorrow morning.
* At 27 feet...Flooding of farmland. Cattle should be moved to higher ground.

&&

LAT...LON 3118 8680 3111 8676 3103 8709 3107 8712


$$

950 
WGUS84 KMOB 050118
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
718 PM CST Fri Jan 4 2019
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...Florida...
 
  Conecuh River At Brewton affecting Covington and Escambia Counties. 
  Escambia River Near Century affecting Escambia County. 
  Shoal River Near Crestview affecting Okaloosa County. 
...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...
 
  Alabama River Near Millers Ferry Dam affecting Dallas...Monroe and Wilcox 
  Counties. 
  Alabama River Near Claiborne Dam - Tailwater affecting Clarke...Monroe and 
  Wilcox Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

ALC047-099-131-060118-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0055.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MRFA1.1.ER.181229T1444Z.190102T1300Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
718 PM CST Fri Jan 4 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Alabama River Near Millers Ferry Dam
* until further notice.
* At 6PM Friday the stage was 72.4 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 66.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 72.8 feet by Monday early afternoon 
  then begin falling.


&&

LAT...LON 3215 8726 3205 8719 3203 8732 3184 8738
 3184 8756 3215 8749                  

$$

ALC025-099-131-060118-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0056.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CLBA1.2.ER.181229T2021Z.190104T2200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
718 PM CST Fri Jan 4 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Alabama River Near Claiborne Dam - Tailwater
* until further notice.
* At 6PM Friday the stage was 50.8 feet. 
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 42.0 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to a stage of 49.7 feet by 6PM Wednesday.
* At 50.0 feet...Roads in the Mabien Lake area begin to flood.

&&

LAT...LON 3184 8756 3184 8738 3146 8753 3114 8786
 3114 8797 3150 8766                  

$$

ALC039-053-052100-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-190105T2100Z/
/BWTA1.1.ER.190103T2345Z.190104T1545Z.190105T1500Z.NO/
718 PM CST Fri Jan 4 2019

...Flood Warning extended until Saturday afternoon...The Flood Warning continues
for
  the Conecuh River At Brewton
* until Saturday afternoon.
* At 6PM Friday the stage was 27.3 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 27.0 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by tomorrow late morning.
* At 27.0 feet...Flooding of farmland. Cattle should be moved to higher ground.

&&

LAT...LON 3118 8680 3111 8676 3103 8709 3107 8712


$$

ALC053-FLC033-060118-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0049.000000T0000Z-190108T1500Z/
/CTYF1.1.ER.181231T0330Z.190105T1200Z.190108T0900Z.NO/
718 PM CST Fri Jan 4 2019

...Flood Warning extended until Tuesday morning...The Flood Warning continues 
for
  the Escambia River Near Century
* until Tuesday morning.
* At 6PM Friday the stage was 18.5 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 18.8 feet by tomorrow morning. The 
  river will fall below flood stage Tuesday morning.
* At 19.0 feet...Low lying pasture will flood. Cattle should be moved to higher 
  ground.

&&

LAT...LON 3100 8718 3100 8715 3090 8728 3077 8729
 3077 8733 3093 8731                  

$$

FLC091-060118-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0003.190105T1800Z-190107T0600Z/
/CRVF1.1.ER.190105T1800Z.190106T0000Z.190107T0000Z.NO/
718 PM CST Fri Jan 4 2019

...Flood Warning extended until late Sunday night...The Flood Warning continues 
for
  the Shoal River Near Crestview
* From tomorrow early afternoon until late Sunday night.
* At 6PM Friday the stage was 7.5 feet. 
* No flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by tomorrow early afternoon and continue to
  rise near 8.1 feet by tomorrow evening. The river will fall below flood stage 
  by late Sunday evening.
* At 8.0 feet...Minor flooding of low lying areas.

&&

LAT...LON 3078 8650 3078 8649 3069 8653 3069 8663
 3070 8663 3070 8655                  

$$

565 
WGUS84 KMOB 051710
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
1110 AM CST Sat Jan 5 2019
 

...The flood warning is cancelled for the following river in Alabama...
 
  Conecuh River At Brewton affecting Covington and Escambia Counties.

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

ALC039-053-051740-
/O.CAN.KMOB.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-190105T2100Z/
/BWTA1.1.ER.190103T2345Z.190104T1545Z.190105T1605Z.NO/
1110 AM CST Sat Jan 5 2019

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Conecuh River At Brewton
* until this afternoon.
* At 10 AM Saturday the stage was 27 feet. 
* Flood stage is 27 feet.
* At 27 feet...Flooding of farmland. Cattle should be moved to higher ground.

&&

LAT...LON 3118 8680 3111 8676 3103 8709 3107 8712


$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
651 PM CST Tue Jan 1 2019

.DISCUSSION...See updated information for land areas below.

&&

.UPDATE...Made a few adjustments to the Dense Fog Advisory, adding
most inland areas of the western Florida panhandle and the coastal
zones of Baldwin and Mobile counties which include the Gulf
beaches. Nearly stationary surface front currently extends from
near the mouth of Mobile Bay northeastward across the central
portions of the western Florida panhandle and up into southeast
Alabama. Dense sea fog is widespread over the marine waters south
of this boundary, and is also gradually spreading inland over land
areas along and south of the boundary as well. With the warm side
of the front extending further inland over the western Florida
panhandle, the dense fog is spreading further inland there as
well. So we adjusted the Dense Fog Advisory to cover all areas
along and south of the frontal boundary. Fog is currently not
dense over most of Mobile Bay and most of Baldwin/Mobile counties,
but we will monitor for possible inclusion of those areas in the
Advisory should the front lift back to the north. Already updated
Grids and sent out updated Public Forecast and Dense Fog products.
12/DS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 523 PM CST Tue Jan 1 2019/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
02/00Z issuance...General IFR to LIFR conditions are expected to
prevail through the forecast period as low stratus and areas of
fog persist across the region. Fog will remain most dense and
widespread near and along the coast. A weak frontal boundary will
remain stalled across the region through Wednesday, with light
northerly winds behind the front and light southerly in advance of
the boundary. Scattered light rain showers will otherwise persist
through Wednesday as well. 12/DS

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 407 PM CST Tue Jan 1 2019/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Wednesday/...Currently over the forecast
area, a weak cold front stalled along the I65 corridor today. Light
rain has been concentrated mainly north of the surface boundary, in
an area of weak isentropic upglide, though a few rainshowers were
noted south of the boundary. Along and south of the coast, dense
advection fog has settled in, with cameras on our beaches and
reports from oil rigs along the southern border of our marine zones
reporting low VISBYs, and the current visible satellite loop showing
fog/stratus in between. Moist southerly flow in the low 70s is
flowing over water with temps in the 60-65 degree range, and looking
into tonight, am expecting this to continue. Have issued a dense fog
advisory for area waters south of the coast though tonight into
Wednesday morning, along with the coastal zones of Santa Rosa and
Okaloosa counties. Have added all our protected bays into the
advisory beginning tonight, with the near coastal fog expected to
spread northward as winds lighten and temperatures cool. Other than
the Florida Panhandle coastal zones, did not spread the areas of
dense fog inland over land areas. How far inland the dense fog will
spread overnight is less clear, with guidance less clear on the
winds becoming favorable.

The stalled surface front will begin to move south overnight with
overnight cooling of the airmass north of the front, and is expected
to stall near the northern Gulf coast late tonight into early
Wednesday. The axis of better rain chances will shift south with the
boundary, with best rain chances being along and south of the I65
corridor. Overnight lows ranging from mid 50s northwest to mid 60s
near the coast expected.

Several weak shortwaves approach and pass north of the forecast area
later tonight through Wednesday. The stalled cold front begins to
move north as a warm front in response to increasing southerly flow
south of the boundary. Rain chances are expected to increase through
the day Wednesday, with increasing isentropic upglide and shortwave
dynamics the cause. Highs Wednesday ranging from around 60 north to
around 70 over our coastal counties are expected. /16

SHORT TERM /Wednesday night Through Friday night/...A potent
upper level low will translate across southern New Mexico and west
Texas Wednesday night into Thursday morning. An axis of deep layer
moisture within southwest flow aloft ahead of this advancing
feature will extend from southeast TX to the Tennessee Valley
Wednesday night, with the southeastern fringe of this moisture
axis making its way into interior portions of southeast MS and
southwest Alabama Wednesday evening into late Wednesday night. We
will carry a likely chance of showers over much of our interior
into late Wednesday night, with isentropic ascent also bringing a
continued chance of rain near the coast. Deep layer forcing and
ascent will spread across our forecast area Thursday into Thursday
night as the upper low advances across north Texas, and as an
associated surface low lifts into Louisiana. An associated
complex of showers and a few thunderstorms are forecast to spread
across our region late Thursday afternoon into early Friday
morning ahead of the ejecting low, bringing concerns for locally
heavy rainfall given the strength of ascent across our region. 1
to 3 inches of rainfall with localized amounts around 4 inches
currently look to impact our region Thursday afternoon into
Thursday night. Heavy rainfall will bring an elevated flooding
threat across interior southeast MS and southwest AL Thursday
afternoon through Thursday night, as these locations remain quite
saturated with ongoing minor to moderate river flooding and some
continued localized areal flooding from last week's heavy rain
event. The flooding threat should more limited across the
remainder of the CWA. The severe weather threat with this system
currently looks quite low given an overall lack of instability
despite strong low level and deep layer shear, though an isolated
strong to marginally severe storm cannot be entirely ruled out.
Otherwise, patchy to areas of fog may continue to impact locations
near the coast Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

Rain should end from west to east Friday morning as the upper low
ejects northeast across northern AL/MS into the Tennessee Valley.
A much cooler and drier airmass spreads across our region in the
wake of this system, bringing mostly clear and drier conditions
for Friday afternoon into Friday night. /21

LONG TERM /Saturday Through Tuesday/...A deep layer dry airmass
remains in place over our region this weekend into Monday, with
clear and cool conditions expected. The next system may bring the
next chance of showers by next Tuesday. /21

MARINE...Moist onshore flow will bring widespread dense fog to area
waters through tonight. Winds will increase Wednesday. Fog coverage
may remain persistent along and south of the northern Gulf coast
through Wednesday morning until winds increase. Winds will shift to
offshore later Wednesday night into Thursday as a weak cold front
moves south of the coast, then become moderate to strong east, then
south and west Thursday into Thursday night as a surface low passes
west of the area. The strong westerly flow lasts through Friday,
then becomes northwest as a cold front moves across area waters. A
Small Craft Advisory is likely to be issued for Thursday into Friday
with the increasing winds along with expected building seas.

/16

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Wednesday for ALZ265-266.

FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Wednesday for FLZ202>206.

MS...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Wednesday for GMZ630>636-650-
     655-670-675.

&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
359 PM CST Tue Jan 1 2019

ALZ265-266-FLZ202-022200-
Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Coastal-
359 PM CST Tue Jan 1 2019

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Alabama and
northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents along area beaches tonight.

Fog is expected along to last along the coast through tonight, with
some localities seeing visibilities dropping below one mile.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Some strong storms and isolated nuisance flooding due to heavy rain
are possible on Thursday.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents along area beaches
Wednesday and Wednesday night.

There is a high risk of rip currents along area beaches Thursday and
Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ALZ051>060-261>264-FLZ201-203-205-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-022200-
Choctaw-Washington-Clarke-Wilcox-Monroe-Conecuh-Butler-Crenshaw-
Escambia-Covington-Mobile Inland-Baldwin Inland-Mobile Central-
Baldwin Central-Escambia Inland-Santa Rosa Inland-Okaloosa Inland-
Wayne-Perry-Greene-Stone-George-
359 PM CST Tue Jan 1 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Alabama,
southwest Alabama, northwest Florida and southeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Fog is expected to develop once again overnight, with some
localities seeing visibilities dropping below one mile.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Some strong storms are possible on Thursday. Heavy rain is also
possible, which could lead to continued or worsening areal and river
flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

FLZ204-206-022200-
Santa Rosa Coastal-Okaloosa Coastal-
359 PM CST Tue Jan 1 2019

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CST WEDNESDAY...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.
   Dense Fog Advisory.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents along area beaches tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   Dense Fog Advisory.

Some strong storms and isolated nuisance flooding due to heavy rain
are possible on Thursday.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents along area beaches
Wednesday and Wednesday night.

There is a high risk of rip currents along area beaches Thursday and
Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

GMZ630>634-022200-
Northern Mobile Bay-Southern Mobile Bay-Mississippi Sound-
Perdido Bay-Pensacola Bay System-
359 PM CST Tue Jan 1 2019

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CST WEDNESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the coastal waters of Alabama
and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   Dense Fog Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   Dense Fog Advisory.

Fog development will remain possible Wednesday into Thursday.
Visibilities may be reduced to under one mile at times.

GMZ635-636-650-655-670-675-022200-
Western Choctawhatchee Bay-Eastern Choctawhatchee Bay-
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL
out 20 NM-Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL from
20 to 60 NM-
359 PM CST Tue Jan 1 2019

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CST WEDNESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the coastal waters of Alabama
and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   Dense Fog Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   Dense Fog Advisory.

Fog development will remain possible Wednesday into Thursday.
Visibilities may be reduced to under one mile at times.