Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
318 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2019

.DISCUSSION...

...A Few Strong to Severe Storms Possible Through This Evening...
...Rapidly Deteriorating Boating Conditions and Much Cooler
Wednesday Behind A Cold Front...

Current-tonight...Showers and storms will continue to expand in
coverage as lift increases out ahead of an approaching cold front,
especially north of a Melbourne to Lake Kissimmee line through
the remainder of this afternoon and evening. Some of these storms
could be strong to possibly severe with wind gusts of 50 to 60
mph, frequent lightning, torrential downpours, and even some hail
in the strongest storms.

Once this initial round of pre-frontal convection moves offshore
this evening, mesoscale models are showing another line of showers
and isolated showers moving into the area from the west and
northwest along the front itself by late evening. Not expecting
anything strong or severe at this time with this line, but there
could be some gusty winds and lightning as it moves through. Will
continue likely PoPs into the tonight period for most of the area
with chances decreasing from north to south as winds turn
northwesterly and subsidence takes over behind the front.
Temperatures will be much colder tonight with low to mid 50s north
of Orland and upper 50s to low 60s toward the south (except mid
60s for the Treasure Coast.

Wednesday...Some lingering showers will be in the forecast mainly
south of Melbourne, but as the front continues to push south of
the area rain chances are expected to come to an end by the
afternoon hours. Forecast soundings show a strong frontal
inversion keeping substantial cloud cover around much of the day,
and cold advection with brisk northerly winds will keep
temperatures on the cool side (some staying the 50s across the
north!). In fact many locations will likely experience their
daily high temperature either late tonight or in the early
morning hours.

Thursday...Thursday morning will be the coldest morning this
week, as clearer skies allow lows to drop into the low 40s for
areas north of I-4 warming to the low 60s for areas along the
Treasure Coast. After a cold start, afternoon temperatures will
start a warming trend for the weekend. Highs will reach the mid
60s in northern counties to low 70s in southern counties. Onshore
flow will keep a slight chance of showers offshore and along the
immediate coast through Thursday night. Winds will shift to the
northeast overnight on Wednesday and will stay higher over the
Atlc, as hazardous boating conditions continue. The change in wind
direction will also bring breezy winds for land areas, with
speeds 15-20 mph inland and 20-25 mph along the coast Thursday
afternoon.

Friday-Tuesday (modified)...Breezy onshore flow persists into
Friday as sfc high swings across the Mid-Atlantic, pushing towards
New England. Slightly higher moisture over the waters will lead to a
chance of showers, with easterly flow steering activity to the
immediate coastline, with isolated showers reaching west of the St
Johns basin. Looking towards the weekend continues to be a
complicated and uncertain forecast, with the evolution of an upper
trough over the Midwest leading to low confidence in the local
pattern. Models now take some form of a closed low across or near
the Gulf of Mexico, with the ECM taking a much more vigorous
approach to this feature. Depending on how this system evolves has
much to say over the local forecast including impacts, but for now,
have raised rain chances Saturday and Sunday, introducing likely
PoPs Saturday afternoon into Saturday night, with the potential
looking more favorable for a heavy rain event for at least a portion
of the forecast area. Highs hover near normal values in the low 70s,
with min temps slightly above normal in the low 60s, dipping to the
mid 50s early next week behind another front. For early next week
the closed low is expected to pull east of the state with lingering
low shower chances along the Atlantic coast into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...

Some lingering low ceilings will continue to lift this morning and
reach VFR conditions this afternoon. An approaching cold front
will increase coverage of showers and storms this afternoon mainly
after 18-19Z from ISM-TIX northward. Showers and storms will
gradually work their way southward through this evening and
tonight as the cold front pushes through central Florida. Winds
will veer northwesterly behind the front with conditions beginning
to dry out across the northern terminals after midnight/05Z.
However, another round of MVFR/IFR ceilings is expected late
tonight into Wednesday morning.

&&

.MARINE...

Through tonight...Small Craft should continues to exercise
caution in the offshore waters for winds of 15 to 20 knots and
seas up to 6 feet. Winds will further deteriorate late as
northerly winds of 20-25 knots begin to enter the northern waters
where Small Craft Advisories go into effect. In addition,
offshore-moving thunderstorms capable of producing winds in excess
of 35 knots will be possible across Brevard and Volusia counties
into this evening.

Wednesday...Solid small craft advisory conditions where northerly
winds will remain 20-25 knots with seas building to 8 to 10 feet
offshore and 7 to 9 feet nearshore.

Wed Night-Thu...Winds become NE to 20-25 knots with seas building to
6-8 ft near shore and 9-12 ft offshore. Hazardous winds and seas
will make conditions treacherous for small craft.

Thu Night-Friday...Winds will veer to the ENE/E with high pressure
to the north supporting onshore winds to 20-25 knots. Seas will
remain hazardous with SCA conditions continuing.

Sat-Sun...Low pressure will organize across the eastern Gulf with
strong onshore flow transitioning into Sunday as a front and dry
slot move through the area. Hazardous winds and seas will likely
peak Sat-Sat night and then the tighter pressure gradient will lift
gradually northward from the waters late in the weekend. The strong
winds, hazardous seas and potential for heavy rain will keep boating
conditions treacherous from late week and into the upcoming
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  55  60  45  66 /  70  20   0  20
MCO  57  63  46  69 /  70  20   0  10
MLB  62  66  53  69 /  70  30  10  20
VRB  64  70  59  70 /  70  40  20  20
LEE  53  61  40  67 /  60  10   0   0
SFB  55  61  45  68 /  70  20   0  10
ORL  56  62  47  68 /  70  20   0  10
FPR  65  70  60  70 /  70  50  20  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Wednesday to 4 PM EST Thursday
     for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-
     Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-
     Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
     Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Wednesday to 4 PM EST Thursday
     for Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian
     Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm.

&&

Combs/Volkmer/Watson/Weitlich

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
940 AM EST Tue Dec 17 2019

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-180300-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard-Osceola-
Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Northern Brevard-
940 AM EST Tue Dec 17 2019

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Scattered lightning storms are expected to develop during the mid
to late afternoon over interior counties ahead of a cold front.
The storms will move quickly toward the northeast around 35 mph
and will increase in coverage into the evening as the front nears.
Cold temperatures aloft and increasing wind fields should produce
a few strong storms with gusty winds. One or two storms may
produce damaging winds near 60 mph and small hail. An isolated
tornado also cannot be ruled out.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
Locally heavy rains of one to two inches will be possible with
storms late this afternoon through this evening. This may cause
temporary flooding of some roads especially where previous heavy
rains fell last week.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
Easterly swell will continue to impact the surf zone and produce a
Moderate Risk of rip currents at the beaches of east central
Florida. Always swim within sight of a lifeguard.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
Scattered showers and lightning storms will develop during the mid
to late afternoon and move quickly toward the northeast around 30
mph across inland lakes and eventually across the intracoastal
and nearshore Atlantic waters into this evening. A few strong
storms will produce wind gusts greater than 35 knots along with
dangerous lightning strikes.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
Small craft should exercise caution for south to southeast winds
15 to 20 knots over the open Atlantic. Seas up to 6 feet well
offshore. North winds behind a cold front will increase 20 to 25
knots late tonight over the Atlantic coastal waters of Volusia
county.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
Boating and surf zone conditions will deteriorate rapidly on
Wednesday, including on the intracoastal waters as North winds 20
to 25 knots overspread the waters. Seas will build 7 to 8 feet
nearshore and 9 to 11 feet in the Gulf Stream Wednesday and
Wednesday night with only slow improvement through late week.

Low pressure is forecast to develop in the Gulf of Mexico this
weekend and move across the Florida peninsula. This will bring a
threat for additional heavy rains as well as a potential for
severe weather. It is too early to know timing and impact details
but residents and visitors of east central Florida should stay
tuned to later forecasts for this weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters are requested to monitor the weather and self activate
if needed.

Combs/Kelly

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