Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
955 AM EDT Tue Aug 6 2019

.DISCUSSION...

A sultry airmass remains in place acrs FL with morning RAOBs
measuring PWats in the 2.00"-2.25" range with KXMR/KTBW showing a
nearly saturated H100-H%0 lyr. RAP40 analysis confirms this with
H100-H70 mean RH btwn 85-90pct...H85-H50 avg dewpoint depressions
arnd 3C. Modestly cool air aloft with H50 temps arnd -7C...H70 temps
btwn 8-9C are yielding lapse rates of 5.5-6.0C/KM thru the lyr. Mid
lvl vorticity fields showing modest PVA. Upr lvl jet dynamics are
weak as any noteworthy H30-H20 jet streaks are positioned well east
of the FL Peninsula.

Diurnal convection getting another early start along the west coast
sea breeze...tsra cluster over the Tampa Bay area will through off
some upr lvl debris clouds that will slow initial convective dvlpmnt
acrs Osceola/Brevard/Indian River Co...but not enough to stop it.
Mostly sunny skies elsewhere will allow for max heating with aftn
maxes arnd 90F areawide.

West coast sea breeze will be dominant under the prevailing SW flow,
pushing well inland by early aftn. East coast sea breeze delayed
until early aftn and may make it as far inland St. Johns river basin
in some areas.  will be pinned along the I-95 Corridor...merger btwn
the two sea breezes by mid aftn over the coastal counties. Models
continue to indicate a robust sea breeze collision this aftn over
the coastal counties, with SW flow forcing storm activity offshore
thru early evng. Categorical PoPs for the Space/Treasure Coasts
looks good.

Morning package in good shape...a few tweaks to sky cover thru early
aftn, but otherwise, no changes. Rainfall potential up to 3.00" will
keep the Space/Treasure Coasts under a moderate flood threat.
Increased threats for fqnt ltg and wind gusts up to 40KTS given the
cool air aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...Thru 07/12Z.
Sfc Winds: Thru 06/16Z...W/SW 5-8KTS. Btwn 06/16Z-06/18Z coastal
sites bcmg E/SE 7-11KTS. Btwn 06/19Z-06/21Z...KMCO/KSFB/KISM bcmg
S/SW 7-10KTS. Btwn 07/00Z-07/03Z...bcmg S/SW 3-6KTS.

Vsbys/WX/Cigs: Thru 06/16Z...W of KLEE-KOBE chc MVFR shras/slgt chc
IFR tsras...E of KLEE-KOBE slgt chc MVFR shras/tsras. Btwn 06/16Z-
06/24Z...E of KTIX-KOBE MVFR shras/sct IFR tsras/slgt chc of LIFR
+tsras with sfc G35KTS...W of KTIX-KOBE nmrs MVFR shras/sct IFR
tsras. Btwn 07/00Z-07/03Z, E of KLEE-KOBE chc MVFR shras/IFR
tsras...W of KLEE-KOBE slgt chc MVFR shras/IFR tsras.

&&

.MARINE...
Ridge axis draped over the nrn Bahamas/FL Keys will maintain a
steady southerly flow acrs the lcl Atlc...light to gentle W/SW
breeze midday, bcmg a gentle to moderate S/SE by early aftn with the
formation of the east coast sea breeze. North of Sebastian Inlet
seas 2-3FT...up to 4FT in the Gulf Stream; south of the Inlet, seas
1-2FT...up to 3FT in the Gulf Stream. Nmrs shras/tsras moving
offshore from mid aftn thru early evng will be capable of generating
sfc G35KT.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

Bragaw/Glitto

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1055 AM EDT Tue Aug 6 2019

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-070300-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard-Osceola-
Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Northern Brevard-
1055 AM EDT Tue Aug 6 2019

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon as the west and east coast sea breezes collide over the
Interstate 95 corridor. Storms will move east-northeast around 15
mph. Highest coverage is expected along the east coast, mainly
south of Cape Canaveral. The primary threats will be dangerous
lightning strikes, gusty winds up to 50 mph, and torrential rain.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
Local heavy rain is expected across much of east central Florida
this afternoon, with highest amounts along the east coast from
Cape Canaveral south Jupiter Inlet. Torrential downpours are
expected, with rainfall amounts up to 3 inches. Areas that have
seen multiple rounds of heavy rainfall over the last several days
are most vunerable to minor flooding this afternoon.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A diminishing long period background swell will generate a
moderate rip current threat along area beaches, primarily north
of Sebastian Inlet. The threat will be highest after 4:00 PM due
to tidal effects. Remember to always swim near a lifeguard and do
not swim alone. Do not be misled if there is little to no surf at
the beach as rip currents typically occur beneath the waves.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
Strong thunderstorms are expected to develop along the sea breeze
collision this afternoon, leading to gusty winds of 35 knots or
greater across inland lakes, the intracoastal and nearshore
Atlantic waters. Storm motion will be east-northeast at 10 to 15
knots, so mariners should keep an eye to the western skies and
seek safe harbor when storms approach.

.RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
The St Johns River near Astor remains just above Action Stage.
The river is forecast to remain near this level through mid week.
When Action Stage is reached near Astor, water begins to move
into yards and covers boat ramps in low lying areas along the
river.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
Scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms are expected to
continue through mid week. The main storm hazards will be
dangerous lightning strikes, gusty winds, and locally heavy
rainfall which may cause minor flooding, especially across the
Treasure Coast and Brevard County. For late this week and into the
weekend, shower and storm coverage is expected in the scattered
range each afternoon with heavy rain, gusty winds and lightning
accompanying storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight.

Bragaw

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
207 PM EDT Tue Aug 6 2019

FLZ059-061900-
St. Lucie FL-
207 PM EDT Tue Aug 6 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN ST. LUCIE COUNTY UNTIL
300 PM EDT...

At 207 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Fort Pierce, moving east at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Port Saint Lucie, Walton, Fort Pierce, Saint Lucie Nuclear Power
Plant and Fort Pierce Inlet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2726 8020 2725 8020 2725 8021 2724 8022
      2726 8023 2726 8028 2723 8029 2721 8043
      2755 8047 2756 8031 2725 8019
TIME...MOT...LOC 1807Z 263DEG 8KT 2744 8033

Glitto

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
320 PM EDT Tue Aug 6 2019

FLZ047-061945-
Southern Brevard County-
320 PM EDT Tue Aug 6 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL BREVARD COUNTY...

At 320 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Viera, or near
Rockledge. The storm is nearly stationary.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Rockledge, Cocoa Beach, Patrick Air Force Base, Merritt Island and
Suntree.

Funnel clouds can occasionally touch down and produce brief small
tornadoes. Move indoors and stay away from windows.

Local Atmospheric conditions are becoming more favorable for the
possibility of landspout formation. A landspout is a tornado of very
short duration and winds generally less than 60 mph which can cause
minor damage and injuries in its direct path. If this trend
continues, a tornado warning may be issued shortly. Stay tuned to
NOAA weather radio and local media for additional updates and
possible warnings.

LAT...LON 2820 8086 2830 8086 2835 8063 2834 8063
      2835 8062 2834 8062 2834 8061 2835 8060
      2836 8057 2833 8057 2822 8056
TIME...MOT...LOC 1920Z 272DEG 3KT 2826 8071

Rodriguez