Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
338 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2019

.DISCUSSION...

...Scattered to numerous storms with strong wind gusts through
late afternoon...

...Hotter temps with lower storm coverage late week...

Currently through tonight...
Scattered storms pushing east at mid afternoon. A few cells have
been strong to marginally severe with strong wind gusts the main
threat. The activity already crossing the Volusia county coast
but additional storms noted upstream across north FL and into
eastern Gulf with influence from disturbance aloft. Latest radar
trends and meso model runs indicate storms will increase through
the late afternoon as storms push from metro Orlando area toward
Brevard Co and also reach the Treasure Coast from areas around
Lake Okeechobee. Winds have back to SSE component southern
Treasure coast near Stuart, which may help enhance convergence
near the coast. This activity will move offshore by sunset but
some additional storms moving back in across the northern
sections may linger past sunset. Skies will become partly cloudy
in the late night hours with lows in the lower-mid 70s.

Previous Forecast Discussion Follows...
Thu...Low level ridge axis will remain across south Florida and
maintain an offshore (W/SW) flow. The deep moisture that has been
over the area will shift east over the Atlc with relatively drier
air advecting in from the west. This will reduce rain chances and
have lowered PoPs to 30 percent across the area. The offshore flow
will be strong enough to at least delay the east coast sea breeze
south of the Cape and probably prevent formation north of the
Cape altogether. With lower storm coverage, hot temperatures in
the low to mid 90s are expected even at the coast, though likely
short of any records.

Fri-Tue...Mid level ridge builds over the Bahamas and south FL
Fri-Sat then a weakness in the ridge develops Sun-Mon over the
Bahamas or FL peninsula. The 00Z GFS is more aggressive with this
weakness, showing a cut off upper low developing over FL while the
00Z ECMWF is much less pronounced. With deep layer ridging over
the area Fri-Sat, rain chances look to be below normal at 20-30
percent. Rain/storm chances should increase Sun-Tue due to the
weakness in the ridge but will cap PoPs at 40 percent for now due
to the disagreement in the models.

The surface ridge will remain nearly stationary across south FL
but with a lighter offshore flow which will allow the east coast
sea breeze to form each afternoon especially south of the Cape.
Max temps will be in the low to mid 90s interior, lower 90s
coastal Volusia due to a more delayed sea breeze development and
near 90 south of the Cape.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR to brief LIFR in and near showers and thunderstorms through
sunset. Winds with isolated strong thunderstorms will be variable
with gusts to 35kts. Some early morning low stratus is possible
on Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...

Through Tonight...main concern to boaters rest of this afternoon
and evening will be offshore moving thunderstorms with gusts
34kt+, as has already occurred over Volusia Co waters as of mid
afternoon. Outside of storms, winds generally SW 10-15 knots and
seas 2-3 ft.

Previous Marine Forecast Disucssion Follows...
Thursday...Ridge axis remains nearly stationary across the
southern peninsula so offshore (SW) winds will continue 10 kt
across the southern waters and 15 knots northern waters. Drier air
will lower the coverage of offshore moving showers and storms but
there will still be a few. Seas 2-3 ft, except up to 4 feet well
offshore Volusia county.

Fri-Sun...The W/SW pressure gradient weakens Fri to 5-10 knots
which will allow the sea breeze to form near the coast during the
afternoon. Light W/SW winds winds will continue Friday night
through Sunday, with onshore sea breeze development both weekend
afternoons. Shower and storm coverage looks low Fri and Sat then
becoming scattered Sunday afternoon. Seas 2-3 feet north/central
waters, and around 1 foot southern waters closer to the ridge
axis.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  92  75  93 /  30  30   0  20
MCO  74  94  76  95 /  20  30   0  20
MLB  73  93  75  94 /  30  30  10  10
VRB  73  94  74  94 /  30  30  10  10
LEE  74  92  77  92 /  30  30   0  20
SFB  74  94  77  94 /  30  30   0  20
ORL  74  94  77  95 /  20  30   0  20
FPR  74  94  74  94 /  30  30  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

FORECAST GRIDS...Glitto
RADAR/DSS...Sedlock
AVIATION...Johnson

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1043 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2019

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-200245-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard-Osceola-
Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Northern Brevard-
1043 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2019

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A few showers and lightning storms will push off the Treasure
Coast late this morning. After a brief midday lull in activity,
showers and lightning storms will begin to form again early this
afternoon and become numerous during the mid and late afternoon.

Storms will move rapidly eastward today around 30 MPH, and will
be easily capable of producing wind gusts above 40 mph, with
isolated damaging wind gusts in excess of 55 mph possible in a
few storms. Frequent lightning and wind-driven torrential
downpours of 1 to 2 inches will also occur in a few storms.

If you are outdoors today, be alert to the potential for strong
storms rapidly approaching from the west. Move indoors to safety
at the first sign of threatening skies or if you hear thunder.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
Due to the fast storm motion today, the threat for wind gusts at
or above 35 knots will be greater than in previous days on area
lakes, the Intracoastal Waterway, and the near shore Atlantic.
Move to safe harbor well in advance of storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
Storm coverage will be much lower from late week through the
weekend and into early next week compared to the last several
days. Any Florida thunderstorm can produce deadly cloud to ground
lightning, torrential downpours and gusty winds.

With lower coverage of storms expected, afternoon temperatures
and heat indices will rise, reaching between 100 and 105 degrees
the next few days, especially over the interior.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters are requested to monitor the weather and self activate
if any severe weather warnings are issued for their area today.

Cristaldi/Glitto

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
326 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2019

FLZ147-192015-
Northern Brevard County FL-
326 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL BREVARD COUNTY
UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

At 325 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Klondike Beach, or near Haulover Canal, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Playalinda Beach, Haulover Canal, Merritt Island Wildlife Refuge and
Klondike Beach.

LAT...LON 2862 8075 2875 8083 2879 8075 2879 8074
      2880 8074 2881 8073 2882 8070 2864 8058
TIME...MOT...LOC 1925Z 227DEG 17KT 2870 8072

Sedlock

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
327 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 W KENNEDY SPACE CENTE 28.64N 80.75W
06/19/2019  M48 MPH          Brevard            FL   OTHER FEDERAL

            MEASURED WIND GUST AT USAF TOWER 714 OF 48 MPH/42 KNOTS.

&&

TES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
337 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0319 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 ENE INTERCESSION CITY 28.29N 81.44W
06/19/2019  M46 MPH          Osceola            FL   ASOS

            MEASURED WIND GUST 40 KNOTS AT THE KISSIMMEE GATEWAY
            AIRPORT.

&&

JCP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
337 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2019

FLZ045-053-192015-
Osceola FL-Orange FL-
337 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
ORANGE AND NORTHEASTERN OSCEOLA COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

At 336 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
cluster over Austin Tindall Park, or near Narcoossee, moving
northeast at 35 mph.

Wind gusts to 50 to 55 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Orlando, Wedgefield, Avalon Park, Orlando International Airport and
Lone Cabbage Fish Camp.

LAT...LON 2857 8110 2853 8097 2841 8088 2839 8089
      2838 8088 2837 8088 2837 8087 2836 8087
      2835 8086 2833 8086 2823 8103 2827 8125
      2833 8114 2842 8143
TIME...MOT...LOC 1936Z 246DEG 30KT 2835 8126

Sedlock

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
422 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2019

FLZ047-053-192045-
Southern Brevard County FL-Osceola FL-
422 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN BREVARD AND EAST
CENTRAL OSCEOLA COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

At 421 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles east of Holopaw, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Palm Bay, Melbourne, Camp Holly Fish Camp, Holopaw and West
Melbourne.

LAT...LON 2797 8095 2815 8108 2819 8073 2804 8066
TIME...MOT...LOC 2021Z 236DEG 37KT 2809 8094

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