Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
341 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Current-Tonight...Strong to isolated severe storms mainly across
coastal Brevard county will continue to push off the coast
through late this afternoon. Additional storms will remain
possible primarily from Orlando to Titusville southward through
early this evening. A few of them could still be strong with winds
of 40 to 50 mph, torrential downpours, and frequent lightning
strikes. Rain and storm chances will then diminish through the
evening hours, but will keep slight chance of storms mentioned
through 10pm and a slight chance of showers through around
midnight as some mesoscale models are showing some redevelopment.
Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s.

Thursday...The low-level ridge axis will remain across south
Florida while low pressure trough axis through the mid levels
extends from the Great Lake region into the northern Gulf of
Mexico. This will keep the deep layer of southwesterly flow in
place once again as well as deep moisture (1.8" to 2.0" of
precipitable water). As a result, high coverage of showers and
storm are expected again. Guidance is hinting at some showers and
storms north/west of the I-4 corridor as early as the late
morning hours, but primarily early to mid afternoon across this
area and also southward into Osceola and Okeechobee counties as
the west coast breeze convection moves across the peninsula.
Propagation and steering flow will bring the convective activity
toward the coast by mid to late afternoon (possibly the Volusia
coast and northern Brevard by early afternoon) with showers and
storms pushing offshore by early evening. Storms will be moving
fairly quick for mid June with motion expected to be to the NE/ENE
at around 25 mph. Gusty winds of 40-50 mph will be possible in
stronger storms and also frequent lightning and torrential
downpours. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s.

Fri-Fri Night (previous)...Frontal boundary over north-central FL
will slide southward into the central peninsula early in the day
as broad high pressure continues to expand southeastward across
the east/southeast CONUS. As the center of the high pressure moves
towards the mid Atlc coast surface winds will veer around to
onshore by afternoon areawide. Precip chances will favor southward
where moisture remains deepest. Mainly zonal flow aloft will
continue but it will become lighter. Highs in the U80s/L90s with
lows generally L-M70s.

Sat-Tue (previous discussion)...Ridging over the western Atlc
with axis just north of central Fl during this period. The
previous surface boundary becomes diffuse and washes out.
Generally S/SE surface flow over the area. This will allow for
ample moisture to flow back into the area. There should be diurnal
convective (SCT- NMRS/40-60pct) activity each day with sea breeze
collisions late in the day over the interior. Steering flow
fairly light so there could be some locally heavy rainfall along
with frequent lightning in a few storms each day.Daily high
temperatures will be in the U80s near the coast and near 90 to
L90s into the interior. Overnight lows consistent and in the
L-M70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Line of storms will continue to push offshore of Brevard County and
the Treasure Coast into late afternoon, producing tempo IFR/MVFR
conditions with strong to localized damaging wind gusts possible
from KMLB southward. Additional shower and thunderstorm development,
producing additional reductions to cig/vis will persist across the
interior with this activity heading east-northeast through early
evening. Convection should then diminish by midnight with VFR
conditions expected overnight.

&&

.MARINE...

Tonight-Thursday...South of southwesterly winds 10-12 kts will
continue with seas of 2-3 ft. Another round of offshore-moving
storms is expected Thursday afternoon, some of them could be
strong once again.

Fri-Mon (previous)...High pressure will force decaying surface
front into the central peninsula on Fri as it (high pressure)
moves toward the mid Atlc coast late, then pushing off of the
coast into the western Atlc this weekend. Between Fri morning and
Fri afternoon onshore flow will exist areawide as a result. Winds
continue to veer Fri overnight to SERLY and will fluctuate between
S/SE thru the weekend. Wind speeds generally AOB 15 kts. Seas
continue AOB 3 ft through the extended. Highest storm chances will
be located south of the Cape on Fri as some drier air filters
southward across the north. SCT-NMRS shower and storm chances
return Sat-Mon as moisture deepens again across the entire area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  71  88  73  87 /  30  50  10  20
MCO  74  90  73  91 /  20  60  10  40
MLB  75  92  72  89 /  20  60  20  40
VRB  72  91  71  89 /  20  60  40  50
LEE  74  87  74  91 /  20  50  10  30
SFB  75  90  73  91 /  20  60  10  30
ORL  75  90  74  91 /  20  60  10  30
FPR  71  92  71  89 /  30  60  40  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

Combs/Glitto/Weitlich