Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
243 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2019

.DISCUSSION...

...Widespread Showers and Storms With Heavy Rainfall On Tap for the
Next Several days...

Current-Tonight...Many boundary collisions, coupled with deep
moisture, surface heating, mid-level impulses, and favorable
diffluence further aloft promoting the abnormally "high" coverage of
showers and storms across the area. PoPs remain at 80pct areawide
with highest coverage continuing thru late afternoon and early
evening before conditions gradually diminish. SWRLY steering flow 15-
20 mph will stack up convection across the eastern peninsula. Some
gusty outflows will arrive well ahead of precip.

Storm impacts continue to be torrential downpours leading to
localized flooding, especially if any training of cells or heavy
downpours on already saturated ground occur, as well as frequent
cloud to ground lightning in a few storms, and gusty winds between
40 and 50 mph. This afternoon the Storms Prediction Center has
updated the Day 1 Convective Outlook to Marginal across the eastern
peninsula. There may be the potential for hail up to quarter size in
the strongest activity.

Lows in the L-M70s. Cloud debris will be slow to thin overnight.

Previous Extended Forecast Discussion

Monday-Tuesday...A rather compressed and amplified upper trough/
ridge will be present across the Atlantic Seaboard on Mon stretching
from New England to the eastern GOMEX. At the surface, broad surface
low with an associated weak and meandering cool front will be wedged
between two significant areas of high pressure, one transitioning
east out of the Central Plains and the other over the west Atlantic.
This atypical pattern will keep a reinforced supply of concentrated
deep moisture in place over FL and with the peripheral axis of the
Atlantic ridge tucked well south of Central FL. Consequently, low
level flow will continue out of the southwest fostering numerous
showers and thunderstorms for the peninsula. Opportunity exists for
some localized excessive rain, and otherwise generous wetting most
places. A productive west-coast seabreeze will be the added factor.
Until the synoptic pattern breaks down, early week multi-day totals
will need to be monitored for increased flooding concerns. Tue will
see more of the same with said boundary over parts of North FL and
the Panhandle with potential for frontal wave development. The
stalled boundary will linger over the SE CONUS through mid-week
accompanied by disturbed weather along and out ahead. Max temps in
the U80s/L90s with mins in the L/M70s. PoPs remaining on the high
side peaking near 70 percent each day.

Wednesday-Saturday...The upper pattern dampens considerably as broad
troughing takes its place by mid-week. Atmospheric moisture remains
abundant over the area through much of the week offering plenty of
fuel for convection and rain-makers. While the weak cool front tries
to inch closer to Central FL, it only manages to promote persistence
to the forecast until late week when a significant area of high
pressure bridges the boundary. It should combine with the Atlantic
ridge Fri-Sat to flip the pattern to an onshore flow regime. Of
course, this favors the western side of the peninsula for diurnal
convection, and more of a late night/early morning shower/storm
regime for ECFL. Temps will be near normal.

&&

.AVIATION...Widespread showers and storms will continue to push
across ECFL thru at least early evening before a decrease in both
coverage and intensity. SWRLY steering flow of 15-20 kts will send
storms across the eastern peninsula and off of the coast. IFR
VSBYs/local G30-40KT possible with TSRA. At least a SCHC mention
will continue for showers overnight in the soupy airmass. Another
round in store for tomorrow/Monday with little change in the pattern.

&&

.MARINE...Today-tonight...Previous modified...Surface ridge axis
remains well south/east of the local coastal waters. Seas generally
2 ft near shore and 2-3 ft well offshore. Biggest concern continues
the late day/early evening offshore push (high coverage) of showers
and storms. Generally southerly flow (SSW-SSE) AOB 15 kts. Winds and
seas locally higher invof showers/storms. Expect occasional erratic
directional component of wind due to storms. Storm outflows can
arrive well ahead of the storm itself with very gusty winds.
Mariners over inland lakes are also not immune from storms and need
to keep an eye to the sky westward.

Storm impacts remain torrential downpours, cloud to water (sometimes
frequent) lightning, gusty winds in excess of 34 kts, and small hail.

Previous Extended Marine Forecast Discussion

Monday-Thursday...A moist and prevailing deep layer southwest wind
flow will govern the marine weather through the period. Conditions
will be well below cautionary concerns for both winds and seas, yet
scattered to numerous storms will push offshore each day with the
potential for strong gusts of 34KT or more. The threat will be
highest during the afternoon and evening. Winds and seas will be
locally higher near the more stout storms, which will also produce
very heavy rain. Otherwise, seas will be 3FT or less through mid-
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  90  75  91 /  40  70  30  50
MCO  73  92  75  93 /  40  70  20  60
MLB  75  91  75  91 /  40  70  30  50
VRB  74  92  74  91 /  40  70  30  50
LEE  75  90  76  91 /  40  70  20  60
SFB  74  93  76  93 /  40  70  20  60
ORL  74  92  76  92 /  40  70  20  60
FPR  73  93  72  92 /  40  70  30  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

ALL FORECAST GRIDS...Sedlock
DECISION SUPPORT/RADAR....Glitto
AVIATION/RADAR...Smith

Hazardous Weather Outlook...Updated
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1042 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2019

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-100000-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard-Osceola-
Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Northern Brevard-
1042 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2019

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A southwesterly feed of deep tropical moisture will combine with
daytime heating, the west coast sea breeze, and a mid to upper
level disturbance aloft to produce widespread showers and storms
across east central Florida. Coverage is forecast to increase
through the afternoon and early evening.

Showers and storms already across west central Florida, will likely
continue to develop and move eastward toward the Kissimmee River and
across the Interstate 4 corridor from late morning into early this
afternoon. Numerous to widespread showers and storms will impact
most of the region throughout the remainder of the mid to late
afternoon and into early evening.

Storm motion will be toward the northeast at 20 to 25 mph. The
main threats from today's storms will be deadly cloud to ground
lightning strikes, and torrential rainfall amounts of 1 to 3
inches, which could fall in a 60 to 90 minute period. Wind gusts
as high as 40 to 45 mph and small hail will also be possible.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
Due to the locally heavy rainfall of the past few days, the local
water table is starting to rise, and drainage basins and water
retention areas area beginning to fill up. Because of this, the
threat for temporary inundation of urban, low lying, and poorly
drained areas is successively increasing, and is likely to occur
more quickly compared to last month. If you live in an area prone
to poor drainage flooding, make efforts to shore up any property
that might easily flood. Recognize local roadways that are more
likely to flood, and avoid them during heavy rain events. Never
attempt to cross an area where water covers the road. The depth
may be too great to allow your vehicle to get across safely.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
Stronger storms could produce wind gusts in excess of 35 knots
over larger inland lakes, as well as the Intracoastal and near
shore Atlantic waters. Mariners should keep a close eye on weather
conditions and watch for storms quickly approaching from the west
again today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
Numerous showers and lightning storms are expected across east
central through most of this week. The main concerns will continue
to be deadly cloud to ground lightning strikes, and the
increasing threat of poor drainage flooding due to several days of
locally heavy rainfall. Locally gusty winds will also be
possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters are requested to monitor the weather and self activate
if needed. Please report any rainfall amounts of 2 inches or more,
or any flooding or roads or property to the National Weather
Service in Melbourne.

Cristaldi/Sedlock

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
254 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2019

FLZ044-092000-
Northern Lake County FL-
254 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL LAKE COUNTY UNTIL
400 PM EDT...

At 254 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Emeralda, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Leesburg, Lady Lake, Lake Griffin, Lisbon and Emeralda.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2896 8195 2896 8165 2878 8191 2878 8195
TIME...MOT...LOC 1854Z 216DEG 17KT 2894 8185

Smith

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
300 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2019

FLZ041-045-046-147-092000-
Northern Brevard County FL-Orange FL-Seminole FL-Inland Volusia FL-
300 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN SEMINOLE...NORTHERN
BREVARD...SOUTHEASTERN ORANGE AND SOUTHEASTERN VOLUSIA COUNTIES UNTIL
400 PM EDT...

At 300 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Titusville Airport, moving north at 35 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Titusville, Rockledge, Cocoa, Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2839 8056 2834 8057 2835 8108 2879 8102
      2880 8084 2879 8079 2880 8079 2880 8075
      2879 8074 2880 8074 2880 8069 2860 8054
      2853 8052 2843 8051
TIME...MOT...LOC 1900Z 185DEG 29KT 2854 8081

Smith

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