Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1010 AM EDT Mon May 13 2019

...SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THIS
AFTERNOON...

.UPDATE...
SPC has upgraded nrn/central portions of east central FL to a SLIGHT
risk for severe storms this afternoon. Convection will increase into
mid day across nrn sections ahead of a shortwave trough across the
NE gulf with initial showers and storms poised to move across areas
north of the I-4 corridor before noon. Environmental parameters
point to the risk for strong damaging winds, frequent lightning and
hail with the strongest storms. Storm motion will be toward the ENE
near 30 mph early to 35-40 mph by mid to late afternoon as mid level
winds increase. Expect nrn areas will see a few rounds of showers
and storms with activity reaching St Lucie/Martin county by mid to
late afternoon. Updated pops and convective weather grids based on
recent trends. Latest SPC mesoscale discussion indicates 80% prob
for watch issuance which we will be coordinating with SPC this
morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR stratus areas will lift to BKN MVFR with sct/nmrs showers/storms
poised to affect KLEE-KDAB from 1430z-16z. Will refine terminals
based on early start for nrn terminals with another round of
showers/storms moving in from the west for terminals north of KISM-
KTIX into the early to mid afternoon hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Today...SW winds up to 15 knots with seas 2 ft near shore to 3 ft
offshore. Numerous showers and storms will move from the mainland
and across the waters from mid day and into the afternoon. Quick
storm motion and strong mid level winds will lead to the risk of
strong to severe storms. Gusts to 40-50 knots will be possible in
the strongest convection today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  87  69  87  65 /  70  20  20  10
MCO  89  72  89  68 /  70  20  40  20
MLB  89  74  87  68 /  70  30  50  30
VRB  90  70  86  68 /  70  30  60  30
LEE  87  71  89  66 /  70  20  20  10
SFB  88  69  89  66 /  70  20  30  10
ORL  89  72  89  69 /  70  20  40  10
FPR  90  71  86  67 /  60  30  60  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

Volkmer/Rodriguez/Glitto

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1002 AM EDT Mon May 13 2019

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-140100-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard-Osceola-
Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Northern Brevard-
1002 AM EDT Mon May 13 2019

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Showers and thunderstorms will develop and quickly move from west
to east across central Florida. Some of these storms will be
strong, and a few could become severe.

The main impacts from any severe storms that develop will be
damaging wind gusts of 60 MPH and hail up to quarter size.
Torrential downpours of 1 to 2 inches, along with frequent cloud
to ground lightning are likely to occur with any thunderstorm that
develops.

Storms are most likely to reach Lake and Volusia Counties between
11 AM and noon, affect the I-4 corridor between noon to 3 PM, and
then move over and offshore the Space and Treasure Coast Counties
of Brevard, Indian River, Saint Lucie and Martin between 3 PM and
7 PM.

Be on the lookout for storms approaching rapidly from the west
today. Move indoors for safety away from windows if skies begin
to look threatening, or if you hear thunder.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
There is a high likelihood for at least a few of today's storms to
produce wind gusts of 35 knots or greater and frequent lightning
strikes on area lakes, as well as the Intracoastal Waterway and
adjacent Atlantic waters.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
Scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms are expected
again on Tuesday, with slightly higher chances from Lake
Kissimmee and Melbourne south to Lake Okeechobee and Tequesta.
Coverage and intensity of storms will decrease from mid week
through next weekend, with the best storm chances across the Lake
Okeechobee and Treasure Coast regions.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters are requested to monitor the weather and self activate
if needed.

Rodriguez

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1021 AM EDT Mon May 13 2019

FLZ044-144-131500-
Northern Lake County FL-Southern Lake County FL-
1021 AM EDT Mon May 13 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL LAKE COUNTY UNTIL
1100 AM EDT...

At 1020 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Fruitland Park, or near Leesburg, moving east at 30 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Leesburg, Eustis, Tavares, Lady Lake and Mount Dora.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2896 8195 2896 8166 2901 8166 2902 8155
      2879 8154 2879 8165 2878 8166 2877 8166
      2876 8195
TIME...MOT...LOC 1420Z 262DEG 25KT 2885 8192

Rodriguez