Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
348 PM EDT Sat May 4 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight-Sun...Showers and thunderstorms that developed this
afternoon across east central FL, will linger past 8 pm mainly
east of Orange and Osceola counties as these move toward the
Atlantic waters. An area of high pressure over the Atlantic will
stretch towards south FL tonight and Sun. In the meantime, a low
pressure over southeast U.S. will lift to the northeast. As
showers either dissipate or move away from land tonight, skies
will remain partly to mostly cloudy with temps dropping to around
70 degrees with winds returning to a north to northeast flow.

As the aforementioned low moves away, a cold front will approach
northern FL and stay there through Sunday. PWAT values will remain
over an inch and a half with CAPE values increasing to around
2000 J/kg in the afternoon. So another stormy afternoon is
expected for east central FL. Showers will get going across west
central FL and move towards Lake and Orange counties in the first
half of the afternoon. These will continue to strength and
increase in coverage as the general flow moves them towards the
east coast and linger through early evening. Gusty winds, frequent
lightning strikes and accumulations of rainfall of half an inch
and higher will be possible with the strongest thunderstorms.
Before clouds tap temps in the afternoon, these will rise to near
90 across the interior and to the upper 80s for the coastal areas.

Sunday Night-Tuesday...A low amplitude pattern will prevail for
the first half of next week, featuring a weak trough centered over
the Ohio Valley lifting out to the ENE and being replaced by a
flat ridge. At the surface, as associated weak cool front will
weaken to a diffuse trough as it sags southward from North FL
Sunday to East Central FL Monday before washing out across South
FL Tuesday. Monday looks to continue the spate of convectively
active days for early May, as mid level heights will be at their
lowest while mean PWAT values remain high. Higher chances for
diurnal convection sag into the southern half of the East Central
Florida Monday, and then south of the area by Tuesday as the flow
north the surface trough collapses and mid levels dry out some as
height slowly rise.

Offshore flow will suppress East Central seabreeze development keep
conditions muggy and warm-hot areawide through Monday. Slightly
lower dew points and weaker flow Tuesday will spell lower coverage
of diurnal showers and storms, especially near the coast with the
ECSB pushing well inland, leading to (relatively) cooler coastal
temps.

Wednesday-Friday...Flat ridging aloft will take hold from mid to
late week as the Atlantic surface ridge rebuilds well to the NE of
FL. East winds Wed will gradually veer to SE Thu and south Fri
leading to increasing hear/humidity once again. Onshore flow regime
will support a slightly higher chance for diurnal showers/storms
inland (30-40) vs the coast (20-30). Max temps will average M80s
along the coast and U80s to near 90F over the interior.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA this afternoon and early evening will cause strong
gusty winds of 30 to 40 kts and up to 50 kts as storms develop and
move east towards the coast. Some of these might linger across the
coastal terminals through early evening. Visibilities will also be
reduced to below a mile in heavy downpours. For tonight, a light SW
wind flow should return through Sun morning. SHRA/TSRA will once
again develop Sun afternoon, affecting first the inland terminals
(from KLEE , KISM and KMCO) and move east.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight-Sun...A south-southwest wind flow will return to the
waters this evening as land temperatures cool down and the sea
breeze dissipates. Lingering storms through the evening will cause
localized gusty winds and higher seas. High pressure to the east
will return winds from the southwest on Sunday. Another round of
storms will reach the Atlantic waters in the afternoon as these
move onshore.

Sunday-Wednesday...Strong SW/offshore flow will continue on Sunday,
while weakening a bit on Monday. Tuesday will be a transitional day
featuring light winds, which will become onshore from mid-late next
week. Sunday will be another day of concern for strong offshore
moving TS, with the higher threat shifting south of the Cape-SIPF1
Monday. Seas around 2FT near shore and 3FT well offshore, with 4FT
possible at times out toward 50-60NM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  70  88  68  89 /  30  60  20  30
MCO  71  90  70  92 /  30  60  20  40
MLB  71  90  70  89 /  30  70  30  40
VRB  72  89  71  89 /  30  70  40  30
LEE  72  88  72  91 /  20  60  10  40
SFB  72  90  70  93 /  30  60  20  30
ORL  73  89  72  92 /  30  60  20  40
FPR  71  89  71  90 /  30  70  40  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

Negron/Johnson/Combs/Rodriguez/Kelly

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
853 AM EDT Sat May 4 2019

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-050100-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard-Osceola-
Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Northern Brevard-
853 AM EDT Sat May 4 2019

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Scattered showers and storms will develop across the area into the
afternoon, pushing eastward up to 20 to 25 mph toward the east
coast and offshore. A few stronger storms may form, especially
toward the I-95 corridor, producing dangerous lightning strikes,
strong wind gusts up to 40 to 50 mph, small hail and locally heavy
rainfall around 1 to 2 inches.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A moderate risk of rip currents will exist along the beaches of
east central Florida today. Greatest threat for rip currents will
be from the late morning through the afternoon hours due to tidal
effects. Always swim near a lifeguard and never swim alone.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
Thunderstorms that develop across the area into the afternoon
will have the potential to produce wind gusts around or in excess
of 34 knots as they move eastward around 20 to 25 knots across
inland lakes and offshore through late day.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
Isolated to scattered afternoon lightning storms can be expected
from late weekend into next week. Storms tomorrow into early next
week will be able to push offshore the coast and into the
Atlantic waters, with a few stronger storms possible. Dangerous
lightning strikes, gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall will be
the primary storm hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters are requested to monitor the weather and self activate
if needed.

Weitlich/Johnson

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
559 PM EDT SAT MAY 4 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0541 PM     TSTM WND GST     PATRICK AIR FORCE BASE  28.24N 80.61W
05/04/2019  M51 MPH          BREVARD            FL   AWOS

            MEASURED WIND GUST OF 51 MPH/44 KT FROM THE WNW.

&&

JC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
600 PM EDT Sat May 4 2019

FLZ047-042230-
Southern Brevard County FL-
600 PM EDT Sat May 4 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN BREVARD COUNTY UNTIL
630 PM EDT...

At 600 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Palm Bay, moving east at 25 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Palm Bay, Melbourne, Malabar, Indialantic and West Melbourne.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2792 8045 2792 8069 2804 8068 2820 8055
      2812 8054 2801 8048
TIME...MOT...LOC 2200Z 265DEG 22KT 2799 8061

Rodriguez

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