Severe Thunderstorm Warning 8, NWS Melbourne, FL

426 
WWUS52 KMLB 052000
SVSMLB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
400 PM EDT FRI APR 5 2019

FLC111-052015-
/O.CON.KMLB.SV.W.0008.000000T0000Z-190405T2015Z/
St. Lucie FL-
400 PM EDT FRI APR 5 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM EDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN ST. LUCIE COUNTY...

At 355 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Fort Pierce,
moving southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Pierce, White City, Indrio, Saint Lucie Nuclear Power Plant and
Fort Pierce Inlet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2738 8043 2756 8041 2756 8029 2732 8018
TIME...MOT...LOC 1955Z 332DEG 7KT 2744 8034 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Bragaw

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
342 PM EDT Fri Apr 5 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Saturday...Low pressure emerging off the Carolina
Coast will drag a weak surface boundary/front over the peninsula
tonight. This feature will dissipate early Saturday as high
pressure over the Wrn Atlc basin begins to rebuild WWD over the
state. Lingering showers and a few storms ascd with aftn
instability and cooler temps aloft will linger over portions of
the area into tonight. Best coverage should be over the areas
south of Metro Orlando and the adjacent Atlc waters past dark with
NW flow aloft able to keep pcpn activity going a little later
than normal diurnal.

For Sat...Modest instability and suitable sfc heating/boundaries
will lead to some afternoon showers and storms. Best areas for
development will be inland counties, as well as the I-4 corridor
to Volusia Co. There will be a slight chc of slow moving storms
primarily inland where boundary interactions should be optimized.
Temps will make it into the M80s inland and around 80 coast.

00Z Sun-12Z Mon...
A negatively tilted short wave trof over the Desert SW will
rotate into the High Plains and feed its energy into a weak
H100-H70 cyclone currently over the central plains. This low will
dvlp into a full blown storm system as it pushes acrs the upr
midwest/Great Lakes, combines force with a second storm system
fcst to dvlp near the Arklatex late Sun night into Mon. These two
WX features will push a hi pres ridge from the ern seaboard into
the W Atlc where it will weak over the relatively warm ocean
waters.

Position of the ridge axis will remain draped over central FL, but
will weaken steadily with time as its wrn flank is eroded by the
aforementioned dual storm centers. A light bit steady 10KT S/SE flow
will persist thru the H100/H70 lyr, a flow pattern that will tap an
airmass with limited low/mid lvl moisture: H100-H70 mean RH values
largely AOB 70pct...H85-H50 values blo 50pct...PWat values generally
btwn 1.25"-1.50". Mid lvls moderately unstable with H85-H70 lapse
rates btwn 5.5-6.0C/KM Sat night, steepening to 6.0-6.5C/KM on Sun,
but little in the way of mid lvl dynamic support as the ridge axis,
albeit weak, will block out much of the short wave energy.

Some late aftn shras may dvlp as seabreeze/mesoscale boundaries
interact, but the lack of deep lyr moisture and organized lift will
limit any precip to areas along and north of the I-4 Corridor...
PoPs AOB 20pct. Temps abv avg as the S/SE flow generates a warm air
advection pattern...min temps in the U60s/L70s...max temps in the
M/U80s interior, L/M80s along the coast.

Extended...(Prev Disc)...
Shortwave trough will move east through the southeast U.S. early
next week eventually shifting a weak front through the area Tuesday
and leading to increasing rain chances. Showers and storms expected
each day, with PoPs rising from 40-50 percent Monday to 50-60
percent Tuesday. Drier air will then filter into the area toward mid
to late week with rain chances ending. Highs in the mid-upper 80s
Monday will decrease to low 80s on Tuesday with greater coverage of
showers/storms and cloud cover expected. However, temps will then
warm back into the low to mid 80s Wed-Fri+.

&&

.AVIATION...
Showers and Isold storms will bring brief MVFR conds to vcty VRB-
FPR-SUA sites through 06/01Z. VFR conds areawide overnight aft
06/02Z. Dvlpg shra and isold TS aft 06/17Z mainly inland.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight and Saturday...High pressure will establish over the area
beginning Sat. Expect favorable early weekend boating conds with
seas around 2-3 ft near the coast and 3-4ft offshore.

Sun-Sun Night...Ridge axis spanning the Ern seaboard will drift
seaward and weaken as a new storm system dvlps in the vcnty of the
Arklatex. A gentle to moderate SE breeze will prevail with seas
2- 3FT nearshore and 3-4FT offshore thru the day, building to
3-4FT areawide by sunset.

Mon-Tue...The storm system will ride over the NW flank of the Atlc
ridge early next week, forcing the ridge to retreat seaward. As it
does, a gradual wind shift will take place:  A gentle to moderate
S/SE breeze thru the day Mon, veering to a gentle to moderate S/SW
breeze in the predawn hrs Tue mrng, bmcg a gentle to moderate W/SW
breeze Tue night into Wed. Seas 2-3FT nearshore and 3-4FT offshore.
Chc shras/slgt chc of tsras Mon...shras likely and a slgt chc of
tsras on Tue.

Wed-Wed Night...The storm system will push off the Mid Atlc/New
England coastal waters by daybreak, cranking a cold front thru
central FL and the adjacent Atlc waters as it does. Winds veering to
a light to gentle W/NW breeze by midday, bcmg a light N/NE breeze in
the aftn, then lgt/vrbl overnight. Seas subsiding to 2-3FT areawide
by midday, then AOB 2FT areawide aft sunset. Chc of shras in the
over the Treasure Coast...slgt chc of shras elsewhere.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  64  84  67  83 /  20  20  10  10
MCO  66  89  67  89 /  30  30  20  20
MLB  66  84  70  83 /  40  10  10  10
VRB  65  85  71  83 /  40  10  10  10
LEE  66  88  67  89 /  10  30  20  20
SFB  65  88  67  88 /  20  30  20  20
ORL  67  88  67  88 /  20  30  20  20
FPR  65  84  71  83 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Pendergrast
LONG TERM....Bragaw

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
954 AM EDT Fri Apr 5 2019

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-052200-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard-Osceola-
Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Northern Brevard-
954 AM EDT Fri Apr 5 2019

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
There will be a chance of lightning storms to develop during the
heat of the afternoon roughly from the Space Coast and Kissimmee,
south to Lake Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast. A few storms may
become strong with gusty winds of 30 to 40 mph, heavy rain and
small hail. Storms which develop will move east to northeast at 20
to 30 mph.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
Weather and ocean conditions will produce a moderate threat for
dangerous rip currents at the central Florida Atlantic beaches
today. The threat will be highest between 1130 am and 530 pm due
to tidal effects. Check with your local beach patrol for additional
information about ocean hazards, and always heed the warnings
from lifeguards. Remember to swim only near a lifeguard, and never
swim alone.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
A few storms moving offshore from the mainland this afternoon
will be capable of bringing wind gusts of 35 knots or greater,
along with frequent lightning. The mainland over Osceola and
Okeechobee counties, along with the coastal waters south of Port
Canaveral have some potential for storm development.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
The threat for dangerous rip currents will remain elevated at
area beaches through this weekend. There will be a chance for
afternoon thunderstorms in the daily forecast for portions of the
area through at least next Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected today.

JP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
336 PM EDT FRI APR 5 2019

FLZ059-052000-
St. Lucie FL-
336 PM EDT FRI APR 5 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN ST. LUCIE COUNTY
UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

At 334 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Fort Pierce, moving southeast at 10 mph.

Small hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Pierce, White City, Saint Lucie Nuclear Power Plant and Fort
Pierce Inlet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2730 8018 2737 8036 2746 8044 2752 8041
      2751 8025 2731 8018
TIME...MOT...LOC 1934Z 287DEG 8KT 2747 8036

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