Severe Thunderstorm Warning 61, NWS Melbourne, FL

166 
WWUS52 KMLB 182027
SVSMLB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
427 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019

FLC069-095-182036-
/O.EXP.KMLB.SV.W.0061.000000T0000Z-190718T2030Z/
Lake FL-Orange FL-
427 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE AND
SOUTHWESTERN ORANGE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 430 PM EDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty 
winds, lightning, and heavy rain are still possible with this 
thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 2860 8176 2867 8146 2864 8146 2864 8145
      2847 8139 2839 8168
TIME...MOT...LOC 2026Z 165DEG 7KT 2853 8160 

$$

Combs

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
304 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Through tonight...Light SE prevailing flow, sea breeze boundaries
and outflows associated with early convection over the far SE CWA
will help transition isolated, mid afternoon convection over the
eastern CWA to scattered coverage over the western CWA later this
afternoon through the early evening. Early morning marine
convection expected again over the southern waters, with a few
onshore-moving showers, mainly south of Sebastian during early
morning/sunrise hours. Mins in the mid 70s.

Fri-Sun...No notable change in position of ridge over the
peninsula will lead to persistence forecast. Inland areas will be
favored for higher pcpn chcs due to mid-late afternoon boundary
collisions, with light onshore component steering level winds.
some veering of upper winds to more southerly component during
the weekend should allow for locations along the coast north of
the Cape to see improving rain chcs. Expect highs in the L-M 90s
with heat indices 100-105, and lows in the M to U 70s.

Next Week...Ltst guid from GFS shows a little more progressive
weakening of ridge, and or displacement to the south of the area
(as shown by Euro) by Tue and continuing through midweek. A
little higher rain chcs begin to develop by Tue and an improved
rainfall prospect during Tue, and through midweek should improve
the dry conditions, especially along the immediate coast, where
many places have not had measurable rainfall in over a week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Highest chances for showers and storms will gradually transition
from the coast and toward the interior terminals from mid afternoon
into the evening hours.  Most activity will then diminish around 00Z
this evening except closer to 01Z-02Z for LEE. VFR for tonight into
Friday but could see a few showers around SUA by late morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Through tonight...Ridge axis across the Atlantic waters will
maintain favorable wind/sea conditions. SE/S winds 5-10 kts with
seas 1-3 ft. Redevelopment of isolated thunderstorms late tonight,
mainly over the Gulf Stream. A few showers may work onshore the
coast south of Sebastian Inlet very late tonight into the morning
hours.

Fri-Sun...Favorable winds and seas with dominant surface ridge
over the marine area. Winds largely 7-12 kts, or less with seas
1-3 ft.

Extended...Early next week shows continuation of favorable open
water conditions with S-SE winds becoming more southerly, to an
offshore component by Wed. Seas averaging 2-3 ft.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  91  74  92 /  10  40  20  30
MCO  76  93  75  94 /  10  40  20  40
MLB  78  89  76  90 /  10  30  20  30
VRB  75  90  74  90 /  20  30  20  30
LEE  76  92  75  96 /  20  50  20  40
SFB  76  93  76  95 /  10  50  20  40
ORL  77  93  76  95 /  10  50  20  40
FPR  75  90  73  91 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Spratt
RADAR/DSS...Glitto
AVIATION/RADAR....Combs

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1131 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-190015-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard-Osceola-
Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Northern Brevard-
1131 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Isolated lightning storms will develop over portions of the
coastal counties through early afternoon as the sea breeze
strengthens. Storm coverage and intensity will increase over
the interior counties, especially between mid afternoon and
early evening. Storm motion will be toward the northwest at
5 to 10 mph. The primary storm hazards today will be dangerous
lightning strikes, gusty winds up to 50 mph, and heavy downpours.

.EXCESSIVE HEAT IMPACT...
Afternoon high temperatures will range from near 90 along the
coast to 95 inland, leading to heat index values near 100 degrees
along the coast, and up to 107 degrees well inland. If spending
time outdoors, take frequent breaks and hydrate often.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
Scattered thunderstorms will affect some of the nearshore Atlantic
waters through mid afternoon, and the interior lakes during the
mid afternoon until early evening. Gusty winds up to 40 knots
will be possible along with dangerous lightning strikes. Storm
motion will be slow toward the northwest.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected each day. The
primary threats will be cloud to ground lightning and gusty
winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed this afternoon and tonight.

Spratt

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
331 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019

FLZ045-046-182015-
Orange FL-Seminole FL-
331 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN SEMINOLE AND
SOUTHWESTERN ORANGE COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

At 330 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Bay Lake to near Lake Jessup. These storms were
nearly stationary.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Orlando, Sanford, Altamonte Springs, Ocoee and Winter Garden.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2877 8124 2867 8109 2841 8130 2835 8149
      2835 8165 2854 8166
TIME...MOT...LOC 1930Z 070DEG 3KT 2838 8157 2869 8120

Combs