Severe Thunderstorm Warning 57, NWS Melbourne, FL

953 
WWUS52 KMLB 031936
SVSMLB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
336 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2019

FLC085-031943-
/O.CAN.KMLB.SV.W.0057.000000T0000Z-190703T2000Z/
Martin FL-
336 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN MARTIN COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However heavy rain 
continues in Indiantown with up to 3 inches possible before the rain 
tapers off between 4 and 5 pm.

LAT...LON 2699 8062 2703 8063 2712 8057 2709 8038
      2696 8041 2696 8061
TIME...MOT...LOC 1925Z 019DEG 6KT 2701 8052 

$$

Kelly

East Central Florida Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
951 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2019

.DISCUSSION...
...Heat Advisory in Effect Today for Much of ECFL with Peak Index
Values Approaching 105-110F across the Interior...

Currently...Weak Northwest flow noted on the wind profile with
plenty of moisture in place across the region. PWAT has increased
slightly to around 2.15 inches at XMR. A limiting factor which wl
affect development of vigorous convection continues to be a
seasonally warm mid level temp of -5.5C at XMR and -4.9C at TBW.
Considering analogues to previous days warm convection, activity has
been delayed and/or suppressed by this factor. The forecast for
today wl feature about 40 pct coverage inland and 30-35 pct along
the coastal counties. Main concern will be for brief gusty winds,
lightning and heavy rain.

...prev disc...flow regime out of NW wl become N/NE tonight as an
inverted trof over the Bahama Bank works its way into the FL
Straits. While this flow regime typically results in low diurnal
precip chances, today may be a slight exception a latest RAP40
analysis does show respectable amounts of low lvl moisture with H100-
H70 mean RH btwn 70-80pct. PWat values arnd 2.00" may be a bit
misleading as the 03/00Z RAOBs show little of this moisture
concentrated in any one lyr. Still, with mean winds blo 10KTS, both
east and west coast sea breezes should from by midday, though inland
progression will be slow.

With low/mid lvl steering flow roughly parallel to the spine of the
FL Peninsula, a coastal/interior precip split will continue with
30pct along the coast...40pct interior. Main issue of the day,
however, will be uncomfortably warm temps. Sfc dewpoints in the
M/U70s will combine with the light winds to drive aftn temps into
the M/U90s, generating heat index values arnd 105F along the coast,
and 105-110F over the interior. Will issue a heat advisory for the
interior counties as well as coastal Volusia and N Brevard.

&&

.AVIATION...Thru 04/12Z.
Sfc Winds: Btwn 03/15Z-03/18Z...coastal sites bcmg E/SE 8-
12KTS...interior sites bcmg S/SW 6-10KTS. Btwn 03/18Z-
03/21Z...KSFB/KMCO/KISM bcmg S/SE 7-11KTS...KLEE bcmg W/SW 5-8KTS.
Btwn 04/00Z-04/03Z...bcmg S/SE 3-6KTS. Btwn 04/03-04/06Z... bcmg
vrbl AOB 3KTs.

Vsbys/WX/Cigs: Btwn 03/17Z-03/24Z...chc MVFR shras/IFR tsras. Btwn
04/00Z-04/02Z...interior sites slgt chc IFR tsras.

&&

.MARINE...Today-Tonight...Favorable boating conds as a weak sfc/low
lvl pgrad prevails a the wrn flank of the Bermuda Ridge axis remains
acrs the lcl Atlc. Seas AOB 2FT. Light to gentle W/NW breeze thru
midday, bcmg E/SE by early aftn with the formation of the east coast
sea breeze.

Thu-Sun...A weak pressure gradient will be in place initially, but
does tighten a bit into the weekend with wind speeds AOB 15 kts.
Generally S/SE flow into Sat, then more SSW/SW Sat night into Sun.
Should see sea breeze development each day at least thru Sat. Deeper
moisture pools into the area this weekend with a higher threat for
showers/storms and a potential for these to be offshore moving by
that time. Winds/seas locally higher invof storms. Seas mainly AOB 3
ft, but may increase to 4 ft well offshore, north of Sebastian
Inlet, by Sat into Sun.

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this
     evening for Coastal Volusia-Inland Volusia-Northern Brevard-
     Northern Lake-Okeechobee-Orange-Osceola-Seminole-
     Southern Lake.

AM...None.

&&

JP/PG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1109 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2019

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-032200-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard-Osceola-
Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Northern Brevard-
1109 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2019

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
The east and west coast sea breezes are expected to form by early
afternoon and push slowly inland. Scattered showers and lightning
storms will form along the breeze boundaries, moving south around
10 mph. Shower and storm coverage will increase during the mid to
late afternoon over the interior counties, with the best chance
for storms expected along and west of the Florida Turnpike

The strongest storms will be capable of producing frequent cloud
to ground lightning strikes, brief wind gusts to around 35 to 45
mph, and rainfall rates up to two inches per hour. Cease outdoor
activities and move indoors if thunder is hear or at the first
sign of threatening skies.

.EXCESSIVE HEAT IMPACT...
Afternoon temperatures in the middle to upper 90s will combine with
light winds and high humidity to generate peak heat indices
around 105 degrees across east central Florida, and high as 110 in
some locations. If you will be outside engaged in any work or
recreational activity today, be sure to stay hydrated and take
frequent rest breaks indoors.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A small but persistent long period swell coupled with a high
astronomical tide will generate a MODERATE rip currents threat
along the beaches of east central Florida. The threat will be
highest between Noon and 6:30 PM due to tidal effects. To reduce
your chance of being caught in the seaward pull of a rip current,
always swim within sight of a lifeguard and never swim alone.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
Lightning storms will be capable of producing wind gusts to
around 35 knots over larger inland lakes, mainly over the interior
counties following the late day collision of the sea breezes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
Storms will increase this weekend into early next week as
moisture increases across Florida. The main storm threats will
continue to be deadly cloud to ground lightning strikes, gusty
winds and local heavy rainfall.

Low daytime cloud cover and rain chances will result in abnormally
hot temperatures through the late week. Afternoon heat indices of
around 105 degrees or so are forecast.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not anticipated.

MB/JP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
252 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2019

FLZ058-059-064-031930-
St. Lucie FL-Okeechobee FL-Martin FL-
252 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN ST. LUCIE...
SOUTHEASTERN OKEECHOBEE AND WESTERN MARTIN COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM
EDT...

At 252 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northeast of J And S Fish Camp, moving south at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Treasure Island, Indiantown, Okeechobee, Four Seasons Estates and
Taylor Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2711 8066 2718 8074 2721 8079 2720 8082
      2721 8083 2738 8069 2713 8034 2696 8029
      2696 8061
TIME...MOT...LOC 1852Z 020DEG 10KT 2715 8056

Glitto