River Flood Warning 3, NWS Melbourne, FL

East Central Florida Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
947 AM EDT Tue Oct 1 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Currently...Brisk onshore flow continues with sounding data from
this morning showing around 1.6 inches of PWAT. The potential will
exist for isolated marine showers to move ashore and well inland
during today and the present forecast is in good shape. The next
high tide will occur from 10 to 11 am and the possibility exists for
some minor beach erosion to occur along along with with very rough
surf.

from prev disc...

Today-Tonight...High pressure continues to be anchored along the
eastern seaboard, providing for deep easterly flow across the FL
peninsula. Cape wind profilers detect 20 kt flow just above the
surface, increasing to 25-30 kts at 3k-5k ft due to tight pressure
gradient. Dry slot has emerged across the FL Everglades, extending
to the north shore of Lake Okeechobee east to the Treasure Coast.
GOES derived PW shows values ranging from 1.3" across these
mentioned areas, to 1.5" north of I-4. This drying shouldn't carry
much affect to PoPs forecast, with continuation of highest values
(30%) across marine zones toward coastal counties, with a slight
chance of brief showers across the interior. Similar to the last
several days, showers will generally be light, although a few heavy
downpours cannot be ruled out. Confidence in thunder today remains
too low to carry in the forecast, although an isolated strike or two
could occur after daytime heating commences. Yesterday, fast-moving
showers produced wind gusts at coastal sites up to 40 mph, which
again, cannot be ruled out today. Trended afternoon highs just a bit
above guidance, with mid to upper 80s expected at the coast, low 90s
across the interior.

By sunset, a majority of shower activity will taper off, with
isolated pockets of sprinkles pushing onshore through midnight.
Breezy conditions will diminish overnight inland, however winds will
remain elevated up to 10-12 mph at the coast. Nighttime lows in the
low to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Deep easterly will continue across the region as building ridge
leads to a tightening pressure gradient. Sfc winds will steadily
increase after daybreak, becoming 13-15 kt sustained with higher
gusts. Brief west/southwestward moving SHRA may lead to very brief
IFR/MVFR cig and visibility reductions, with the potential for wind
gusts up to 35 kts, especially at coastal terminals. Will carry VCSH
for now due to low confidence.

&&

.MARINE...
Today-Tonight...Poor to hazardous marine conditions will continue
for the next couple of days as long period swell from distant
Hurricane Lorenzo continues to impact the local Atlantic waters.
This, combined with a tightening pressure gradient leading to winds
up to 20 kts and the "King Tides" (highest astronomical tides of the
year) will produce dangerous conditions in the near and offshore
waters and along the immediate coastline. Nearshore seas will
continue to build to 6-8 ft today, with offshore zones approaching 9
ft. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all Atlantic
waters, persisting through late tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  87  76  86  71 /  30  20  20  10
MCO  89  73  90  71 /  20  10  20   0
MLB  87  78  87  75 /  30  20  20  10
VRB  87  76  86  74 /  30  30  20  20
LEE  90  73  90  71 /  20  10  20   0
SFB  89  74  89  70 /  20  20  20   0
ORL  89  74  89  72 /  20  10  20   0
FPR  87  76  86  74 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Wednesday for Flagler Beach
     to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to
     Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to
     Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for Flagler Beach
     to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Sebastian Inlet to
     Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to
     Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

&&

JP/PG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
458 AM EDT Tue Oct 1 2019

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-020000-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard-Osceola-
Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Northern Brevard-
458 AM EDT Tue Oct 1 2019

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.COASTAL FLOOD IMPACT...
A long period swell generated by distant, but large and powerful
Hurricane Lorenzo over the central Atlantic will continue to build
into the central Florida Atlantic surf zone today and tonight.
These swells will combine with a brisk onshore breeze, wave chop,
and the highest astronomical tides of the year to increase the
potential for minor coastal flooding around the times of high
tides, which will average around one foot above normal. The next
two high tide cycles will be between 1030 am to 11 AM this morning
and 1045 PM and 1115 PM tonight.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A HIGH RISK of dangerous and life-threatening rip currents will
be present at all east central FL beaches today due to long period
swell from Hurricane Lorenzo. Beachgoers are urged to be extremely
cautious at the coast today and to avoid entering the surf, no
matter what skill of swimmer.

.MARINE GUST IMPACT...
Quick moving isolated to scattered showers pushing onshore from
the Atlantic waters will be capable of producing wind gusts up to
35 kts today. Mariners along the intracoastal waters and lakes
near the coast should be prepared for showers approaching from the
east and northeast.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through Wednesday
afternoon for building seas to 6 to 8 feet in the nearshore
waters and through late Wednesday night in the offshore waters for
seas of 8 to 9 ft. Mariners should use extreme caution,
especially those in smaller vessels.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
Brisk onshore winds, wave chop, and very long period swells from
Lorenzo will continue to build into the local Atlantic waters and
surf zone through mid week. This will result in increasingly
hazardous seas and surf, as well as a HIGH RISK for life
threatening rip currents for several days. Minor coastal flooding
and beach erosion will be possible during the high tide cycles
through mid day Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight.

Smith