Lake Wind Advisory 7, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
338 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

.DISCUSSION...

...Strong to Severe Storms Through This Evening...
...Hazardous Boating Conditions Over the Atlantic...

Current-Tonight...The strong to severe squall line associated
with a strong upper-level trough and cold front will continue to
rapidly sweep across the area through this evening before moving
offshore with the strongest storms producing torrential downpours,
frequent lightning, and damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph. A
Severe Thunderstorm Watch continues for all of east central
Florida through 10 pm/02Z this evening. A downward trend in rain
chances will begin this evening from northwest to southeast behind
the cold front as some drying commences. Highest PoPs (60-70%)
including thunder will stick around for the Treasure Coast through
late evening before all thunderstorms are expected to be well
offshore. Elsewhere and otherwise will carry a small shower chance
through part of the night, but this will undoubtedly be fine-
tuned with this evening's update. A nice treat for low
temperatures tonight with mid to upper 50s inland and and upper
50s to near 60 along the coast.

Saturday...Much quieter and cooler conditions as post-frontal
airmass takes hold. It will still be breezy at times with westerly
winds around 10-15 mph gusting to 20-25 mph. Skies are expected
to start out partly cloudy but cloud cover is expected to
decrease through the day as drier airmass continues to spill into
the area. Models are trying to generate some isolated showers, but
will keep mentionable shower chances out of the forecast with
forecast soundings showing a strong subsidence inversion around
6000 ft with very dry air above it. High temperatures will be in
the mid to upper 70s and close to 80 along the Treasure Coast.

Sat. night-Sun(previous)...A late season cool down forecast Sat
night as the drier and cooler air settles across the whole area
overnight. Lows forecast by daybreak Sun will range from the U40s
traditional inland cool spots to the M-U50s along the beaches. Dry
and sunny on Sunday with temperatures rebounding only into the
M-U70s with lighter winds.

Next Week...Broad surface high over the Carolinas to the FL
peninsula Mon will slowly elongate seaward early and into
midweek. Local conditions will remain mild to warm with no
mentionable rain chcs. Influence of ridge will weaken across
central FL in the latter half of the week, leaving a seabreeze
dominant daily regime in place with weak ridging aloft likely
suppressing any mentionable pcpn through the remainder of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Strong to possibly severe +TSRA will continue through this
evening as ahead of a strong cold front. Some light to moderate
rain will stick around along with MVFR ceilings for a couple hours
at each particular location after the squall line moves through.
TAFs show improving trends this evening and tonight behind the
cold front with VFR conditions overnight. Much quieter, but still
breezy conditions on Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...

Tonight...Hazardous conditions remain through Saturday. Gale
Warning for the offshore zones will be replaced with a Small Craft
Advisory at 10pm/02Z this evening while the Small Craft Advisory
for the nearshore waters will continue through 4am/08Z tonight.
Winds will veer westerly tonight diminishing slightly to around
15-20 kts nearshore and 20 to 25 kts offshore (occasional gusts to
gale force remain possible offshore). Seas will also gradually
subside but still remain hazardous offshore.

Sat-Sun (previous)...Brisk post-frontal winds during Sat will
require extension of advisory conds for at least the outer
segments through the afternoon. Improvement of winds and seas
Saturday evening and through Sunday should allow for elimination
of headlines by Sunday morning. Winds around 10 kt with seas 4 ft
or less Sunday with a fetch-limited directional component early in
the day, becoming light onshore by mid-afternoon.

Next Week (previous)...Presence of high pressure relatively close
to the waters for the majority of the week will allow for
favorable conditions over the open Atlc with winds mostly AOB 10
kt and seas 2-3 ft near the coast and around 3-4 ft offshore.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  57  74  49  75 /  20  10   0   0
MCO  59  75  52  78 /  20  10   0   0
MLB  60  79  52  77 /  50  10   0   0
VRB  61  77  51  76 /  60  10   0   0
LEE  59  75  52  78 /  20  10   0   0
SFB  58  76  51  78 /  20  10   0   0
ORL  60  74  54  79 /  20  10   0   0
FPR  61  80  50  77 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Volusia-
     Indian River-Inland Volusia-Martin-Northern Brevard-
     Northern Lake-Okeechobee-Orange-Osceola-Seminole-Southern
     Brevard-Southern Lake-St. Lucie.

     Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     Coastal Volusia-Indian River-Inland Volusia-Martin-Northern
     Brevard-Northern Lake-Okeechobee-Orange-Osceola-Seminole-
     Southern Brevard-Southern Lake-St. Lucie.

AM...Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-
     Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Volusia-Brevard
     County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for Flagler Beach
     to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to
     Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to
     Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT
     Saturday for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line
     20-60 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-
     Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

     Gale Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for Flagler Beach to
     Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Sebastian Inlet to
     Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to
     Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

&&

SHORT TERM...Combs
AVIATION...Combs/Bragaw
RADAR/DSS...Volkmer/Rodriguez/Sharp
Public Service...Smith/Johnson

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