Winter Storm Warning 2, NWS Milwaukee, WI

502 
WWUS43 KMKX 221602
WSWMKX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1002 AM CST Tue Jan 22 2019

...WINTER STORM TO IMPACT SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TODAY INTO 
WEDNESDAY...

.Areas of light freezing rain and drizzle mixed at times with
light snow will spread across southern Wisconsin late this morning
and afternoon. The light freezing rain and drizzle will gradually
change over to light snow later this afternoon and evening.
Periods of snow, moderate to heavy at times, is then expected for
most of tonight into Wednesday morning. 

Hazardous travel conditions will develop today and continue into 
Wednesday morning. 

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>070-230015-
/O.CON.KMKX.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190123T1800Z/
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond Du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-
Including the cities of Montello, Westfield, Oxford, Neshkoro, 
Endeavor, Berlin, Princeton, Markesan, Fond Du Lac, Plymouth, 
Sheboygan Falls, Howards Grove, Oostburg, Baraboo, Reedsburg, 
Prairie Du Sac, Sauk City, Portage, Columbus, Lake Wisconsin, 
Lodi, Beaver Dam, Waupun, Mayville, West Bend, Germantown, 
Hartford, Mequon, Cedarburg, Grafton, Dodgeville, Mineral Point, 
Barneveld, Madison, Watertown, Fort Atkinson, Jefferson, 
Waukesha, Brookfield, New Berlin, Menomonee Falls, Muskego, 
West Allis, Wauwatosa, Greenfield, Franklin, Oak Creek, 
South Milwaukee, Cudahy, Darlington, Shullsburg, Benton, Belmont,
Argyle, Blanchardville, Monroe, Brodhead, Janesville, Beloit, 
Whitewater, Delavan, Elkhorn, Lake Geneva, and East Troy
1002 AM CST Tue Jan 22 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Light Freezing Rain and Drizzle transitioning to snow.
  Total snow accumulations of 5 to 9 inches and ice accumulations
  less than one tenth inch. 

* WHERE...Portions of east central, south central and southeast 
  Wisconsin.

* WHEN...Now until noon CST Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. The 
  hazardous conditions will likely impact the evening commute 
  today and morning commute Wednesday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow, sleet
and ice will make travel very hazardous or impossible.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

WIZ071-072-230015-
/O.CON.KMKX.WW.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-190123T1800Z/
Racine-Kenosha-
Including the cities of Racine and Kenosha
1002 AM CST Tue Jan 22 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Periods of light freezing drizzle and rain, mixed at
  times with snow, gradually transitioning to all snow tonight.
  Total snow accumulations of 2 to 6 inches and ice accumulations
  of up to one tenth of an inch expected.

* WHERE...Portions of southeast Wisconsin.

* WHEN...Now until noon CST Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute today 
  and morning commute on Wednesday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow, sleet or
freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Expect slippery
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$
MBK

731 
WWUS43 KMKX 221953
WSWMKX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
153 PM CST Tue Jan 22 2019

...WINTER STORM TO IMPACT SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO 
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.Occasional light freezing rain and snow will continue across
southern Wisconsin this afternoon into the evening. The light 
freezing rain and snow will gradually change over to mostly snow 
later this afternoon and evening. Periods of snow are then
expected tonight into Wednesday morning. The period of heaviest
snow and highest snowfall rates are expected between midnight
tonight and mid-morning Wednesday. 

Hazardous travel conditions are expected with a treacherous
Wednesday morning commute. 

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>070-230400-
/O.CON.KMKX.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190123T1800Z/
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond Du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-
Including the cities of Montello, Westfield, Oxford, Neshkoro, 
Endeavor, Berlin, Princeton, Markesan, Fond Du Lac, Plymouth, 
Sheboygan Falls, Howards Grove, Oostburg, Baraboo, Reedsburg, 
Prairie Du Sac, Sauk City, Portage, Columbus, Lake Wisconsin, 
Lodi, Beaver Dam, Waupun, Mayville, West Bend, Germantown, 
Hartford, Mequon, Cedarburg, Grafton, Dodgeville, Mineral Point, 
Barneveld, Madison, Watertown, Fort Atkinson, Jefferson, 
Waukesha, Brookfield, New Berlin, Menomonee Falls, Muskego, 
West Allis, Wauwatosa, Greenfield, Franklin, Oak Creek, 
South Milwaukee, Cudahy, Darlington, Shullsburg, Benton, Belmont,
Argyle, Blanchardville, Monroe, Brodhead, Janesville, Beloit, 
Whitewater, Delavan, Elkhorn, Lake Geneva, and East Troy
153 PM CST Tue Jan 22 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...A wintery mix of light freezing rain and snow will
  transition to mostly snow late this afternoon or evening. Total
  snow accumulations of 4 to 10 inches and ice accumulations less
  than one tenth inch are expected. 

* WHERE...Portions of east central, south central and southeast 
  Wisconsin.

* WHEN...Now until noon CST Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be very difficult, especially 
  later tonight into Wednesday morning. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow, sleet
and ice will make travel very hazardous or impossible.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

WIZ071-072-230400-
/O.CON.KMKX.WW.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-190123T1800Z/
Racine-Kenosha-
Including the cities of Racine and Kenosha
153 PM CST Tue Jan 22 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Periods of light freezing drizzle and rain, mixed at
  times with snow, gradually transitioning to all snow late this
  afternoon and evening. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 8 
  inches and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch 
  are expected.

* WHERE...Racine and Kenosha Counties. 

* WHEN...Now until noon CST Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute today 
  and especially the morning commute on Wednesday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow, sleet or
freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Expect slippery
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$
MBK

742 
WWUS43 KMKX 221956 AAA
WSWMKX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
156 PM CST Tue Jan 22 2019

...WINTER STORM TO IMPACT SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.Occasional light freezing rain and snow will continue across
southern Wisconsin this afternoon into the evening. The light
freezing rain and snow will gradually change over to mostly snow
later this afternoon and evening. Periods of snow are then
expected tonight into Wednesday morning. The period of heaviest
snow and highest snowfall rates are expected between midnight
tonight and mid-morning Wednesday.

Hazardous travel conditions are expected with a treacherous
Wednesday morning commute.

WIZ071-072-230400-
/O.UPG.KMKX.WW.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-190123T1800Z/
/O.EXA.KMKX.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190123T1800Z/
Racine-Kenosha-
Including the cities of Racine and Kenosha
156 PM CST Tue Jan 22 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Periods of light freezing drizzle and rain, mixed at
  times with snow, gradually transitioning to all snow late this
  afternoon and evening. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 8 
  inches and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch 
  are expected.

* WHERE...Racine and Kenosha Counties.

* WHEN...Until noon CST Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute today 
  and especially the morning commute on Wednesday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow, sleet
and ice will make travel very hazardous or impossible. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>070-230400-
/O.CON.KMKX.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190123T1800Z/
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond Du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-
Including the cities of Montello, Westfield, Oxford, Neshkoro, 
Endeavor, Berlin, Princeton, Markesan, Fond Du Lac, Plymouth, 
Sheboygan Falls, Howards Grove, Oostburg, Baraboo, Reedsburg, 
Prairie Du Sac, Sauk City, Portage, Columbus, Lake Wisconsin, 
Lodi, Beaver Dam, Waupun, Mayville, West Bend, Germantown, 
Hartford, Mequon, Cedarburg, Grafton, Dodgeville, Mineral Point, 
Barneveld, Madison, Watertown, Fort Atkinson, Jefferson, 
Waukesha, Brookfield, New Berlin, Menomonee Falls, Muskego, 
West Allis, Wauwatosa, Greenfield, Franklin, Oak Creek, 
South Milwaukee, Cudahy, Darlington, Shullsburg, Benton, Belmont,
Argyle, Blanchardville, Monroe, Brodhead, Janesville, Beloit, 
Whitewater, Delavan, Elkhorn, Lake Geneva, and East Troy
156 PM CST Tue Jan 22 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...A wintery mix of light freezing rain and snow will 
  transition to mostly snow late this afternoon or evening. 
  Total snow accumulations of 4 to 10 inches and ice 
  accumulations less than one tenth inch are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of east central, south central and southeast 
  Wisconsin.

* WHEN...Now until noon CST Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be very difficult, especially
  later tonight into Wednesday morning for the Wednesday morning
  commute. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow, sleet
and ice will make travel very hazardous or impossible.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

075 
WWUS43 KMKX 230253
WSWMKX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
853 PM CST Tue Jan 22 2019

...WINTER STORM TO IMPACT SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.Snow will continue through the night. We expect the snow to 
increase in intensity after midnight, especially between 3 am and
9 am Wednesday morning. The threat for a wintry mix has shifted
south of Wisconsin. Many areas have picked up 1 to 2 inches of
snow, with an additional 4 to 6 inches expected before it ends
rapidly later Wednesday morning. The higher snowfall rate 
expected after sunrise on Wednesday, is likely to make for a very
difficult morning commute. 

Hazardous travel conditions are expected with a treacherous
Wednesday morning commute.

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-231100-
/O.CON.KMKX.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190123T1800Z/
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond Du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
Including the cities of Montello, Westfield, Oxford, Neshkoro, 
Endeavor, Berlin, Princeton, Markesan, Fond Du Lac, Plymouth, 
Sheboygan Falls, Howards Grove, Oostburg, Baraboo, Reedsburg, 
Prairie Du Sac, Sauk City, Portage, Columbus, Lake Wisconsin, 
Lodi, Beaver Dam, Waupun, Mayville, West Bend, Germantown, 
Hartford, Mequon, Cedarburg, Grafton, Dodgeville, Mineral Point, 
Barneveld, Madison, Watertown, Fort Atkinson, Jefferson, 
Waukesha, Brookfield, New Berlin, Menomonee Falls, Muskego, 
West Allis, Wauwatosa, Greenfield, Franklin, Oak Creek, 
South Milwaukee, Cudahy, Darlington, Shullsburg, Benton, Belmont,
Argyle, Blanchardville, Monroe, Brodhead, Janesville, Beloit, 
Whitewater, Delavan, Elkhorn, Lake Geneva, East Troy, Racine, 
and Kenosha
853 PM CST Tue Jan 22 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow, heavy at times, especially between 3 am and 9 am
  Wednesday morning. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches.

* WHERE...Portions of east central, south central and southeast 
  Wisconsin.

* WHEN...Now until noon CST Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be very difficult, especially 
  later tonight into Wednesday morning for the Wednesday morning 
  commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you
must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your
vehicle in case of an emergency. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

056 
WWUS43 KMKX 230918
WSWMKX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
318 AM CST Wed Jan 23 2019

...WINTER STORM IMPACTING SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH THIS 
MORNING...

.After a bit of a lull, snowfall will continue to pick up in
intensity early this morning and continue to fall through the
morning hours. Hazardous travel conditions are expected with a 
treacherous Wednesday morning commute.

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-231730-
/O.CON.KMKX.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190123T1800Z/
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond Du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
Including the cities of Montello, Westfield, Oxford, Neshkoro, 
Endeavor, Berlin, Princeton, Markesan, Fond Du Lac, Plymouth, 
Sheboygan Falls, Howards Grove, Oostburg, Baraboo, Reedsburg, 
Prairie Du Sac, Sauk City, Portage, Columbus, Lake Wisconsin, 
Lodi, Beaver Dam, Waupun, Mayville, West Bend, Germantown, 
Hartford, Mequon, Cedarburg, Grafton, Dodgeville, Mineral Point, 
Barneveld, Madison, Watertown, Fort Atkinson, Jefferson, 
Waukesha, Brookfield, New Berlin, Menomonee Falls, Muskego, 
West Allis, Wauwatosa, Greenfield, Franklin, Oak Creek, 
South Milwaukee, Cudahy, Darlington, Shullsburg, Benton, Belmont,
Argyle, Blanchardville, Monroe, Brodhead, Janesville, Beloit, 
Whitewater, Delavan, Elkhorn, Lake Geneva, East Troy, Racine, 
and Kenosha
318 AM CST Wed Jan 23 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TODAY...

* WHAT...Snow through the late morning hours, possibly heavy at
  times. Additional accumulations of 2 to 5 inches with total 
  snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches.

* WHERE...Portions of east central, south central and southeast 
  Wisconsin.

* WHEN...Now until noon CST Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be very difficult, especially
  for the morning commute. Expect snow covered roads and reduced
  visibilities. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you
must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your
vehicle in case of an emergency.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$
DDV

071 
WWUS43 KMKX 231253
WSWMKX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
653 AM CST Wed Jan 23 2019

...WINTER STORM IMPACTING SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH THIS
MORNING...

.Moderate to at times heavy snow will continue for a few more
hours this morning. Snowfall rates of a third to half inch are
expected at times. Considerable travel impacts are ongoing across
the area. 

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-231800-
/O.CON.KMKX.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190123T1800Z/
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond Du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
Including the cities of Montello, Westfield, Oxford, Neshkoro, 
Endeavor, Berlin, Princeton, Markesan, Fond Du Lac, Plymouth, 
Sheboygan Falls, Howards Grove, Oostburg, Baraboo, Reedsburg, 
Prairie Du Sac, Sauk City, Portage, Columbus, Lake Wisconsin, 
Lodi, Beaver Dam, Waupun, Mayville, West Bend, Germantown, 
Hartford, Mequon, Cedarburg, Grafton, Dodgeville, Mineral Point, 
Barneveld, Madison, Watertown, Fort Atkinson, Jefferson, 
Waukesha, Brookfield, New Berlin, Menomonee Falls, Muskego, 
West Allis, Wauwatosa, Greenfield, Franklin, Oak Creek, 
South Milwaukee, Cudahy, Darlington, Shullsburg, Benton, Belmont,
Argyle, Blanchardville, Monroe, Brodhead, Janesville, Beloit, 
Whitewater, Delavan, Elkhorn, Lake Geneva, East Troy, Racine, 
and Kenosha
653 AM CST Wed Jan 23 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TODAY...

* WHAT...Snow through the late morning hours, possibly heavy at 
  times. Additional accumulations of 2 to 3 inches with total 
  snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches.

* WHERE...Portions of east central, south central and southeast 
  Wisconsin.

* WHEN...Now until noon CST Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Roads are snow covered and hazardous across
  the area. Considerable travel impacts will likely persist
  through much of the morning. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you
must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your
vehicle in case of an emergency.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

983 
WWUS43 KMKX 231751
WSWMKX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1151 AM CST Wed Jan 23 2019

...SNOW DIMINISHING...

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-231900-
/O.EXP.KMKX.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190123T1800Z/
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond Du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
Including the cities of Montello, Westfield, Oxford, Neshkoro, 
Endeavor, Berlin, Princeton, Markesan, Fond Du Lac, Plymouth, 
Sheboygan Falls, Howards Grove, Oostburg, Baraboo, Reedsburg, 
Prairie Du Sac, Sauk City, Portage, Columbus, Lake Wisconsin, 
Lodi, Beaver Dam, Waupun, Mayville, West Bend, Germantown, 
Hartford, Mequon, Cedarburg, Grafton, Dodgeville, Mineral Point, 
Barneveld, Madison, Watertown, Fort Atkinson, Jefferson, 
Waukesha, Brookfield, New Berlin, Menomonee Falls, Muskego, 
West Allis, Wauwatosa, Greenfield, Franklin, Oak Creek, 
South Milwaukee, Cudahy, Darlington, Shullsburg, Benton, Belmont,
Argyle, Blanchardville, Monroe, Brodhead, Janesville, Beloit, 
Whitewater, Delavan, Elkhorn, Lake Geneva, East Troy, Racine, 
and Kenosha
1151 AM CST Wed Jan 23 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT NOON CST TODAY...

Overall, the snow will continue to diminish into the early 
afternoon. Periods of light snow will continue north of Madison 
and Milwaukee until 1 or 2 PM with little additional accumulation.
Roads will remain snow covered or slick over much of southern 
Wisconsin this afternoon. 


$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1046 PM CST Mon Jan 21 2019

.UPDATE...

The new GFS is looking colder now as well with the storm for
Tuesday into Wednesday. The evidence is pointing toward a colder,
more southern solution. Additionally, it looks it may continue
into Wednesday morning. We'll be taking in all the guidance over
the next few hours and assessing new amounts/timing. Our updated
headlines and snow graphics will posted around 3 am.

&&

.AVIATION(06Z TAFS)...

No major changes to the TAF forecasts. Look for VFR conditions
through about 15z Tuesday. Then MVFR CIGS will rapidly overspread
southern Wisconsin during the late morning, followed by IFR CIGS
in the afternoon. The storm system arriving on Tuesday is also
looking colder. It looks like we'll see less of a wintry mix and
more snow in the southeast, so accumulations could be increasing.
We'll be taking in all the new guidance that is rolling in this
evening. New amounts will be issued by around 09z Tuesday.

Expect brisk southeast to south winds tonight and Tuesday ahead
of the approaching low pressure. Winds will shift to the north
Tuesday evening as the low passes by.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 844 PM CST Mon Jan 21 2019)

UPDATE...

Elevated warm air advection is ongoing across the Upper Midwest
this evening. Radar shows a band of light returns associated with
it, but most of this will evaporate before reaching the ground.
It's lifting quickly northeast.

The 18z GFS and the latest HRRR/NAM are suggesting a southern
shift to the system for Tuesday. This would be a colder solution
with less wintry mix for the southeast. We should still see a
wintry mix across the southeast, however the duration looks a bit
more limited. Will let the overnight shift take in all of the new
model runs before making any headline changes. The current
headlines look fine.

MARINE...

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until Wednesday morning.
Brisk south winds and building waves are expected ahead of
approaching low pressure through Tuesday afternoon. The winds
should weaken somewhat Tuesday night, with waves subsiding later
Tuesday night as well. Freezing spray is also expected into
Tuesday.

More gusty winds will occur Thursday into the weekend, with a
very cold airmass moving in.

Open Waters...

A Gale Warning has been issued for the open waters of Lake
Michigan for Tuesday. It is in effect for the north half from
12-21Z Tuesday, and for the south half from 12Z until 00Z
Wednesday.

South gusts to 30 knots are expected tonight, with south gales to
35 knots Tuesday. South winds to 30 knots Tuesday evening are
expected. Some gusts to 30 knots may occur later Tuesday night
into Wednesday as well, as winds shift to the northwest. High
waves are expected tonight into Tuesday evening.

A Heavy Freezing Spray Warning is also in effect for tonight into
Tuesday morning. Freezing spray is expected at times elsewhere
across the lake into Tuesday.

More gusty winds, high waves and freezing spray potential will
occur Thursday into the weekend, with a very cold airmass moving
in.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 513 PM CST Mon Jan 21 2019)

UPDATE...

The lake effect clouds and associated light snow are dissipating
rapidly across the southeast. The rest of the night will be quiet,
before more wintry weather arrives on Tuesday. No changes to those
details at this time.

AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...

The lake effect MVFR CIGS and lingering light snow across the
southeast is dissipating quickly. Look for VFR CIGS through the
night with conditions deteriorating quickly Tuesday morning as the
next round of wintry weather moves into the western Great Lakes.
No changes to those details at this time. Expect the precip to
move in quickly by mid morning, then peak from the afternoon into
the evening hours, before diminishing by late evening and the
overnight hours into Wednesday. The southeast terminals will
likely see a wintry mix, including some freezing rain. For now,
KMSN should stay all snow, but it should be noted the wintry mix
area will only be 10 or so miles to the south and east. Any small
fluctuations could bring the mix into KMSN.  Air temps may climb
above freezing, but pavement temps likely won't get above
freezing. Expect MVFR CIGS by mid to late morning, dropping to IFR
in the afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 347 PM CST Mon Jan 21 2019)

SHORT TERM...

Late This Afternoon through Tuesday Night...Forecast Confidence
Is Medium.

Enhanced lake effect band continues to take aim on eastern
Sheboygan County, however has been looking less organized since
20Z. KMKE received 0.8" of fluff this morning with much less
organized banding. With the evening commute about upon us, and the
interstate so close to the lakeshore, wl continue Winter Weather
Advisory for a few more hours for Sheboygan County.

Otherwise, increasing elevated warm air advection will result in
mid-high level clouds continuing to spread across southern WI
early in the period. A period of light snow or flurries may
accompany the push of warmer air this evening, with only a dusting
possible.

Confidence remains high on upstream long wave trof over the
western CONUS remaining progressive and transitioning to a compact
short wave that moves through the IA/WI region Tuesday night.
Ahead of this wave, increasing low level jet to 50-60kts ushers
rapid return of higher precipitable water values later tonight
into Tuesday morning. Leaning more on GFS/ECMWF blend which have
been showing better run to run consistency with this wave as it
moves through the region versus NAM which remains an outlier and
farther north.

Confidence drops off on how much QPF can be expected as well as
differing amounts of low level warm air surge and resultant ptype
across the south. Latest GEFS QPF plume for MKE varies from 0.4"
to over 1.0". NCEP SREF plume also shows considerable QPF spread
for the KMSN area.

All short-term guidance showing a period of strong low level warm
air advection and low level frontogenetical forcing across
southern WI on Tuesday, with mid-level frontogenesis Tuesday night
affecting southern WI, except NAM again. NAM farther northwest
with frontogenetical forcing. GFS, GEM and ECMWF all show QPF in
the 0.50 to 0.60 inch range, while NAM is significantly less for
the 24 hour period from 12Z Tue to 12Z Wed. However, as mentioned
above, considerable more uncertainty when factoring in other
short term meso-scale guidance.

Hence storm total model certainty shows a wider spread of
solutions compared to 24 hours ago. New forecast QPF close to the
model certainty mean along with a number of model blends while WPC
guidance slightly less. Snow liquid ratios will be decreasing as
the warmer air spreads in, resulting in a heavier, wet snow. All
short term guidance consistent on spreading warmer air just above
the surface into southern parts of the area on Tuesday. Mesowest
pavement temperature forecast for the southeast do not reach 32
degrees Tuesday afternoon. Hence a better chance for a period of
sleet and/or freezing rain in the southeast Tuesday
afternoon/evening. Expect synoptic scale lift associated with
left exit region of upper jet to affect the northwest CWA as
well.

Forecast snowfall across the north and west anywhere between 3
and 7 inches and 1 to 4 inches in the southeast. Not enough
confidence to upgrade the Winter Storm Watch to a Warning at this
time, but thinking the wintry mix will have impacts on the
southeast. So pulled trigger on Winter Weather Advisory for
roughly the same time. Pushed back start time of watch to 9 AM
Tuesday, as bulk of precipitation expected in the afternoon and
overnight period.

LONG TERM...

Wednesday And Wednesday Night...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Some light snow may linger in the far eastern parts of the area
Wednesday morning, though most of the precipitation should be
exiting the area. High pressure passing by to the south Wednesday
night should bring a brief period of quiet weather.

Thursday Through Sunday...Forecast Confidence Is High.

Models are in good agreement with a strong cold front pushing
southeast through the area Thursday morning, with strong cold air
advection then pouring into the area Thursday afternoon into
Thursday night. This should bring an Arctic airmass into the area
during this period, and linger into the upcoming weekend. The
combination of very cold temperatures and winds should bring the
risk for bitter cold wind chills Thursday night into the weekend.
Wind Chill Advisory criteria of 20 below zero should be reached
each night. Daytime wind chills Friday should be in the 10 below
to 18 below zero range as well. Thus, bitter cold temperatures and
wind chills are looking like a very good bet for the area. May see
small chances for light snow Saturday, though there is rather
large model differences during this period.

Sunday Night And Monday...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

ECMWF and GFS both bring a clipper east southeast through the
region Sunday night into Monday. This far out, the timing and
placement of features is rather good. This may be our next good
chances for accumulating snow, as there is rather robust upward
vertical motion with this system. Will keep an eye on it as this
period draws closer.

AVIATION(21Z TAF UPDATES)...

Scattered snow showers will continue over the eastern areas
through the early evening, but gradually diminish from south to
north. Snow showers already diminishing in the Racine and Kenosha
areas. Expect this trend to continue through the early evening. A
period mid-high level clouds will affect the area tonight with
lower ceilings and vsbys returning with wintry weather later on
Tuesday.

MARINE...

Nearshore Waters...

Small Craft Advisory remains in effect from 23Z today until 12Z
Wednesday for the nearshore waters of Lake Michigan. South winds
will increase by early this evening and continue into Tuesday,
with gusts of 25 to 30 knots at times. Waves will build to 3 to 6
feet by early this evening, and 6 to 10 feet later tonight into
Tuesday evening. The winds should weaken somewhat Tuesday night,
with waves subsiding later Tuesday night as well. Freezing spray
is also expected into Tuesday.

More gusty winds will occur Thursday into the weekend, with a
very cold airmass moving in.

Open Waters...

A Gale Warning has been issued for the open waters of Lake
Michigan for Tuesday. It is in effect for the north half from 12Z
until 21Z Tuesday, and for the south half from 12Z until 00Z
Wednesday.

South gusts to 30 knots are expected tonight, with south gales to
35 knots Tuesday. South winds to 30 knots Tuesday evening are
expected. Some gusts to 30 knots may occur later Tuesday night
into Wednesday as well, as winds shift to the northwest. High
waves are expected tonight into Tuesday evening.

A Heavy Freezing Spray Warning is also in effect for tonight into
Tuesday morning. There is enough of a risk across the far
southern and eastern portions of the lake to go with the warning.
These are where the main effects should be felt. Freezing spray is
expected elsewhere across the lake into Tuesday.

More gusty winds, high waves and freezing spray potential will
occur Thursday into the weekend, with a very cold airmass moving
in.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM Tuesday to 6 AM CST Wednesday
     for WIZ064>072.

     Winter Storm Watch from 9 AM CST Tuesday through late Tuesday
     night for WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062-063.

LM...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until noon CST Tuesday for LMZ080-
     261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-870-
     872-874-876-878.

     Gale Warning from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Tuesday for LMZ080-669-671-
     673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878.

     Gale Warning from 6 AM to 3 PM CST Tuesday for LMZ261-362-364-
     366-563-565-567-868.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for LMZ643>646.

&&

Update...Davis
Tonight/Tuesday and Aviation/Marine...Davis
Tuesday Night through Monday...Wood

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
809 PM CST Mon Jan 21 2019

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-230215-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond Du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
809 PM CST Mon Jan 21 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Monday

A Winter Storm Watch is in effect for Tuesday morning through
early Wednesday morning for areas mainly north of Interstate 94,
and for Madison westward. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect
for the rest of the area.

Heavy snowfall of 4 to 7 inches is possible in the watch area,
with 2 to 5 inches in the advisory area. A wintry mix may occur
across southeast Wisconsin as well on Tuesday. This will impact
the evening commute on Tuesday, and possibly the early morning
commute on Wednesday.

Very cold conditions are expected later in the week. Bitter cold
wind chill readings of 20 to 30 below zero are possible Thursday
night, Friday night and Saturday night. Wind chills during the day
Friday may struggle to get above 15 below zero.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Snowfall reports are appreciated on Tuesday into early Wednesday.
Please use mPING to report start times and change over in
precipitation types.

LMZ643>646-230215-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
809 PM CST Mon Jan 21 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters from
Sheboygan Wisconsin to Winthrop Harbor Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for south winds gusting to 25
to 30 knots and building waves. Freezing spray is also expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Monday

The Small Craft Advisory continues into Tuesday night, for gusty
south winds to 30 knots and building waves. Freezing spray is
expected into Tuesday as well.

Gusty winds, building waves and freezing spray is likely to
return for Thursday into the weekend, with heavy freezing spray
possible at times.

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-230215-
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
809 PM CST Mon Jan 21 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the open waters of Lake
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A Heavy Freezing Spray Warning is in effect, with heavy freezing
spray expected at times.

Gusty south winds to 30 knots and building waves are expected
beginning tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Monday

A Gale Warning is in effect for Tuesday, for frequent southerly
gales to 35 knots. High waves are expected.

The Heavy Freezing Spray Warning remains in effect into Tuesday
morning, with heavy freezing spray at times. Freezing spray, with
some heavy freezing spray, will remain likely again Thursday into
the weekend.

Brisk northwest winds are expected Tuesday night into Wednesday,
with the passage of a cold front. Winds could approach gale force
at times.

Gusty winds, building waves and freezing spray is likely to
return for Thursday into the weekend, with heavy freezing spray
possible at times.

www.weather.gov/mkx