Wind Chill Advisory 8, NWS Milwaukee, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1132 PM CST Sat Mar 2 2019

.UPDATE...No changes at this time.

&&

.AVIATION(06Z TAFS)...Low clouds continue to gradually thin over
the south and east. Mostly VFR conditions expected for the
upcoming TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 952 PM CST Sat Mar 2 2019)

UPDATE...Low clouds continue to slowly erode from the west.
Expect gradual clearing overnight as subsidence increases and
drier air pushes in from the northwest. No changes to ongoing
overnight temperatures. Cold air will continue to funnel into the
region as low level winds increase from the WNW.

MARINE...Weak cold front over northern Lake Michigan will move
southeast as pressure gradient tightens in response to building
large area of high pressure into the Upper Midwest. Northwest
winds will increase overnight, but remain below 30 kts. Still
expect a secondary stronger cold front to move across the lake
later Sunday and Sunday night, with brisk west to northwest winds
in its wake. The threat for freezing spray will increase as much
colder air surges across the region.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 552 PM CST Sat Mar 2 2019)

UPDATE...Mid-high level clouds due to upstream low to mid level
cold air advection will continue to stream east across southern
WI through the evening, eventually thinning later tonight. Expect
areas of lower clouds to eventually thin as well due to increasing
subsidence and low level drier air push later tonight, however
confidence remains lower.

AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...Expect areas of MVFR ceilings to gradually
thin overnight with lingering mid-high level clouds into late
tonight. Mainly VFR conditions expected on Sunday with passing
sct-bkn high clouds, and possibly sct lower MVFR clouds for a
time.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 309 PM CST Sat Mar 2 2019)

SHORT TERM...

Tonight And Sunday...Forecast Confidence Is High.

Sct-bkn stratocumulus with high clouds above will continue late
this afternoon. A few flurries will linger.

The upper low over Manitoba will slowly move ewd across Ontario
through Sun. Weak mid to upper level warm advection and
frontogenesis will lead to clouds tnt but only flurries at best.
The cold front will gradually pass through Sun AM. Nly boundary
layer flow over Lake MI could bring some brief snow showers to the
lakeshore areas Sun AM. Lows tnt single digits to the teens far
se WI. Highs only in the teens Sun with cold advection through the
day as another Arctic airmass arrives.

LONG TERM...

Sunday Night Through Tuesday...Forecast Confidence Is High.

Main impact will be record or near record cold temperatures with
bitter cold wind chills during this period.

Cold air advection weakens Sunday night, as the Arctic airmass
settles into the area during this period. Went with Consensus Raw
blend with lows for Sunday night, which generally range from 5
below to 11 below zero across the area. Record lows may be tied or
broken Sunday night at Madison and Milwaukee, though Madison has a
better shot.

Highs Monday will only reach the single digits above zero, which
may set record low maximum temperatures at Milwaukee. Lows Monday
night should be in the zero to 5 below zero range, held up by more
clouds moving into the area.

West winds lingering over the area will help bring wind chills of
20 below to 30 below zero Sunday night/Monday morning, and 15
below to 20 below zero Monday night/Tuesday morning. Thus, a Wind
Chill Advisory will eventually be needed for Sunday night/Monday
morning, with more borderline conditions Monday night/Tuesday
morning.

Models are in good agreement with bringing a fairly potent 500 mb
vorticity maximum southeast through the area Monday night into
early Tuesday morning. There is enough moisture per area forecast
soundings through a deep enough layer to bring chances for snow
showers. Best shot would be later Monday night, with the best
upward motion. Some flurries of light snow showers may linger into
Tuesday morning in the southeast parts of the area.

Tuesday Night Through Wednesday Night...Forecast Confidence Is
High.

Northwest flow at 500 mb remains over the region during this time.
Cold temperatures will persist during this period, moderating
slowly with weak warm air advection developing. Still will have
wind chills 10 below to 15 below zero Tuesday night/Wednesday
morning. Dry conditions are expected.

Thursday Through Friday...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

GFS continues to be further north with the low track for Thursday
night into Friday, across northern Missouri into Ohio. The ECMWF
and Canadian are much further to the south, and keep the area
mostly dry. Think the GFS is an outlier and is too far north, but
will leave the blended PoPs in there for now. Think this period
may end up being dry. Temperatures should continue to slowly
moderate.

Friday Night Through Saturday...Forecast Confidence Is Low.

Models are showing a fairly strong low pressure system moving east
northeast across the Central Plains into the Upper Midwest or
Middle Mississippi River Valley. There is a lot of uncertainty
this far out with the trends with this system, and precipitation
types/thermal profiles. For now, left blended model PoPs as is.

AVIATION(21Z TAF UPDATES)...

Prevailing Cigs of bkn015-030 for the late afternoon but with
areas of sct015-030. Bkn035-060 developing during the evening and
lasting into early Sun AM. Slight chances of light lake effect
snow near Lake MI for Sun AM. Local MVFR Cigs will be possible tnt
over all of srn WI and near Lake MI through Sun AM.

MARINE...

Modest to brisk nnwly winds will prevail this weekend through Tue
nt over much of Lake MI and the nearshore waters of ern WI. Wind
gusts will be marginal for a Small Craft Advisory during this
time. Heavy Freezing Spray is likely from late Sun nt-Tue.

CLIMATE...

Current forecasts suggest that daily record low temperatures and
low maximum temperatures may be broken Sunday night into Tuesday.
Below are the daily record low and low maximum temperature for
March 3-5 for Milwaukee and Madison:

Milwaukee...

Record Lows

3/3... -6 (1943)
3/4... -8 (1884)
3/5... -7 (1890)

Record Low Maximums

3/3... 8 (1873)
3/4... 12 (2002/1890)
3/5... 9 (1901)

Madison...

Record Lows

3/3... -8 (2004/1884)
3/4... -9 (1884)
3/5... -12 (1890)

Record Low Maximums

3/3... 3 (1873)
3/4... 0 (1869)
3/5... 3 (1890)

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

Update...MBK
Tonight/Sunday and Aviation/Marine...Gehring
Sunday Night through Saturday...Wood

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
322 PM CST Sat Mar 2 2019

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-032130-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond Du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
322 PM CST Sat Mar 2 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Saturday

Wind chills between 20 and 30 degrees below zero are expected
later Sunday night into Monday morning, and between 15 and 20
degrees below zero later Monday night into Tuesday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

LMZ643>646-032130-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
322 PM CST Sat Mar 2 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters from
Sheboygan Wisconsin to Winthrop Harbor Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Saturday

West winds may reach Small Craft Advisory levels Sunday night
into Tuesday.

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-032130-
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
322 PM CST Sat Mar 2 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the open waters of Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Saturday

Heavy freezing spray is likely to occur at times Sunday night
into Tuesday, as an Arctic airmass builds into the area.

Wood
www.weather.gov/mkx