Special Weather Statement, NWS Milwaukee, WI

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
932 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019

.UPDATE...

Broken line of strong to severe storms continues to move southeast
through the northern parts of the area. Airmass ahead of it
remains unstable, though mid level lapse rates are getting poorer
and loss of daytime heating will build cap. Storms are getting
more outflow dominant as well, which should gradually weaken
updrafts of current convection. Think that overall trend towards
weakening storms will occur over the next hour or two, with the
storms themselves still moving southeast through most of southeast
and parts of south central Wisconsin.

&&

.MARINE...

Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the cold front that is
moving southeast through the region late this evening into the
overnight hours. It will affect mainly the central and southern
portions of the lake. Strong to severe storms with damaging winds
and large hail are possible in these areas.

Winds will shift to the northwest behind the front overnight,
with moderate northwest winds into Thursday and perhaps Friday.
High pressure will then bring lighter winds for Friday night into
Saturday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 644 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019)

UPDATE...

Strong to severe convection continues over central Wisconsin,
closest to the advancing surface cold front and best combination
of mean layer CAPE and effective shear exist. This activity is
shown, in general, by the last few runs of the HRRR to slide east
southeast and clip the far northern and northeastern parts of the
area this evening. Not sure how far south any showers and storms
will get, as daytime heating will be lost and may limit areal
coverage and updraft strength. Mid level lapse rates are also
modest at best.

At this time, think any strong or marginally severe storms would
occur over the far northern and northeastern parts of the area
this evening. Damaging wind gusts and perhaps some large hail may
occur. Things should dry out by midnight, with the front pushing
southeast through the area.

AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...

Cold front will move southeast through the area this evening into
the overnight hours. Scattered showers and storms may affect
terminals from middle to late evening, though the best chances
will be north of there. Kept vicinity thunder in TAFs for now,
with some uncertainty with how far these storms may reach toward
the terminals. Gusty winds and hail may occur with the strongest
storms, with brief MVFR/IFR category conditions possible.

Winds will shift to the northwest behind the cold front later
tonight, lingering into Thursday. VFR conditions are expected
during this period, with some diurnal cumulus possible Thursday
afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 310 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019)

SHORT TERM...

This Afternoon through Thursday...Forecast Confidence is Medium
to High...

We are still expecting strong to severe storms to impact central
and southern Wisconsin this afternoon into the early overnight
hours. The best combination of lift, instability, and shear will
exist across northern Wisconsin as an upper low tracks through the
Upper Great Lakes. However, surface convergence, and WAA ahead
this feature has allowed a few showers and storms to form. These
are forming in an environment with MLCAPE of 1,500-2,000 J/kg and
with no CAP storms should be able to rapidly develop. The only
issue is that deep layer shear is only 20kts and storm
organization will likely be lacking. Expect pulse type storms to
continue to develop this afternoon and evening, then as a cold
front begins to drop south storms should begin to merge into
linear segments along the front. Damaging winds, hail, and brief
heavy downpours are possible with any storms.

Once we lose daytime heating instability is expected to diminish
quickly tonight and storms should take on a weakening trend as the
move through southern Wisconsin. The previous (00z) CAMs seem to
have a better handle on current trends and likely overall
evolution of the storms this evening. So, have trended the
forecast towards these solutions with all activity ending shortly
before midnight tonight.

Slight breezes behind the frontal passage tonight will help to
keep things mixed and temps end up similar to this mornings
values. Drier air arrives for Thursday and with slight breezes
think temps will be able to get into the upper 70s but it's going
to feel noticeably different with lower humidity. A few of the
CAMs are trying to generate some QPF along the frontal boundary to
our south with maybe a storm moving through northern IL on
Thursday but think this is overdone.

LONG TERM...

Thursday night through Friday night...Forecast confidence is high:

High pressure will bring quiet weather to end the work week.
Skies will be mostly clear with near normal temperatures.

Saturday through Wednesday...Forecast confidence is medium:

There is a small chance for storms at times over the weekend into
early next week. This is in response to a couple shortwaves moving
through the area. Though model agreement is decent with the
large scale pattern, the exact timing of the better forcing and
resultant precip chances is less clear. Overall, it looks like
Saturday night into Sunday and Monday night into Tuesday have the
best chance to see some storms, though plenty of time for this to
change given the uncertainty. Temps should remain near normal
through this period.

AVIATION(21Z TAFS)...

VFR conditions are forecast into the evening hours. Then as a cold
front approaches from the north, SHRA/TSRA along this boundary
could lower cigs briefly to MVFR/IFR. We are expecting a
decreasing trend in TSRA as they move S/SE through the area. After
06z tonight cigs return to VFR as winds shift to the NW.

MARINE...

Gusty southwesterly winds will continue into the evening hours
across the lake with waves up to 3 feet over northern Lake
Michigan. A cold front will drop from northwest to southeast this
evening shifting winds to the NW. Showers and storms are possible
along the front with wind gusts to 40 knots and large hail
possible with any storm. Stronger winds are possible for much of
Thursday before starting to subside on Friday as high pressure
builds over the area.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

Update...Wood
Tonight/Thursday and Aviation/Marine...Stumpf
Thursday Night through Wednesday...DDV

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
320 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-082030-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond Du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
320 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Thunderstorms are likely north of Milwaukee and Madison from late
afternoon into this evening, with a chance of thunderstorms
elsewhere over southern Wisconsin.

A couple storms may be strong to severe between about 5 PM and 11
PM, with strong winds and large hail the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Wednesday

There is a small chance of thunderstorms at times Saturday through
Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon and evening.

LMZ643>646-082030-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
320 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters from
Sheboygan Wisconsin to Winthrop Harbor Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Thunderstorms are likely north of Port Washington late this
afternoon and evening, with a chance of storms to the south. A
storm or two may bring gusty winds and large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Wednesday

There is a small chance of thunderstorms at times Saturday
through Tuesday.

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-082030-
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
320 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the open waters of Lake
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Thunderstorms are likely over mainly the north half of Lake
Michigan late this afternoon and evening, with a chance of storms
south. Gusty winds and hail may occur, with the best chance across
the north half of the lake.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Wednesday

There is a small chance of thunderstorms at times Saturday
through Tuesday.

DDV

www.weather.gov/mkx

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1001 PM CDT WED AUG 7 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0833 PM     TSTM WND DMG     RIPON                   43.85N 88.84W
08/07/2019                   FOND DU LAC        WI   PUBLIC

            MULTIPLE TREES AND POWER LINES REPORTED DOWN
            ACROSS TOWN...TIME EST FROM RADAR.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1001 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019

WIZ057>060-063>066-080345-
Dodge-Columbia-Waukesha-Milwaukee-Ozaukee-Washington-Jefferson-Dane-
1001 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN OZAUKEE...
MILWAUKEE...SOUTHEASTERN COLUMBIA...WAUKESHA...SOUTHERN WASHINGTON...
NORTHEASTERN JEFFERSON AND SOUTHERN DODGE COUNTIES...

At 1000 PM CDT, radar indicated a line of strong thunderstorms
located from 7 miles northeast of Bayside to near Columbus. Movement
was southeast at 45 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Milwaukee, Waukesha, West Allis, Wauwatosa, New Berlin, Brookfield,
Greenfield, Menomonee Falls, West Bend, Watertown, Mequon, Cudahy,
Hartford, Whitefish Bay, Greendale, Pewaukee, Brown Deer, Grafton,
Cedarburg and Port Washington.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4296 8851 4339 8922 4340 8786 4337 8788
      4324 8791 4318 8788 4312 8790 4307 8787
      4305 8789 4302 8790 4299 8788 4298 8785
      4295 8785
TIME...MOT...LOC 0300Z 300DEG 39KT 4326 8778 4328 8904

MBK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1012 PM CDT WED AUG 7 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     TSTM WND GST     SHEBOYGAN FALLS         43.73N 87.82W
08/07/2019  E50 MPH          SHEBOYGAN          WI   PUBLIC

            2 MILES SE OF KSBM...NO HAIL.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1017 PM CDT WED AUG 7 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1005 PM     HEAVY RAIN       TAYCHEEDAH              43.81N 88.39W
08/07/2019  M1.73 INCH       FOND DU LAC        WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            MAJORITY OF TOTAL FELL WITHIN 2 HOURS.

&&

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>