Special Weather Statement, NWS Milwaukee, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
249 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Today...forecast confidence is medium.

The early morning convection is expected to dissipate rather
quickly this morning. It's a fairly decent MCV complex, so its
wake should provide some subsidence to help clear out some of the
clouds...in theory. It then looks dry through the afternoon. If
the clouds hang around too long or we get too much 3-4kft
stratocu, it will have an impact on temps. But, for now will play
it with more aggressive clearing and thus the potential for a
really hot day. Highs should climb into the lower and mid 90s with
dewpoints running about as high as possible...mid 70s to around
80. This pushes the heat index to 105 to 110...which is warning
criteria. Will therefore upgrade from an advisory to a heat
warning and run it through tonight.

Tonight...forecast confidence is medium.

We should see another round of convection develop along a boundary
north of the forecast area late this afternoon and evening, then
possibly organize/cold pool its way south with time. Just how far
south is the big question. To get into southern Wisconsin would
mean really penetrating the capping thermal ridge in place, so
wouldn't be surprised if the storms remain mostly north of
Milwaukee and Madison tonight. We will remain very warm tonight
with very sticky dewpoints lingering...thus the heat warning will
run through 12z Sat.

Saturday and Saturday night...forecast confidence is medium.

That boundary to the north will then drift south during this
period, bringing another widespread round of showers and storms,
though the intensity looks diminished. This frontal passage will
mark the arrival of a much more tolerable airmass that will
overspread the region for much of next week.

Sunday and beyond...forecast confidence is high.

Canadian high pressure settles across the Upper Midwest by Sunday.
This will bring a much cooler and drier airmass for the early part
of next week. The long range models suggest a dry stretch from
Sunday through Friday of next week with temps gradually warming
from the 70s early, to the mid 80s by the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION(06Z TAFS)...

The morning convection is expected to dissipate by around 12-14z
this morning. Then look for VFR conditions through the remainder
of the TAF period. Winds will be southwest through the period as
well. There is a chance for more storms later tonight, but the
threat appears to be mainly limited to areas north of Milwaukee
and Madison.

&&

.MARINE...

Some fog is possible across Lake Michigan through early Saturday
as high dewpoint air pushes north across the lake. Thunderstorms
are possible this morning, then things dry out today. More storms
are possible mainly over the north half tonight...spreading south
on Saturday. Thunderstorms are expected overnight. Expect
southwest winds today, a bit breezy, but should remain below
small craft advisory levels. A cold front will sweep south across
the lake Saturday into Saturday night. This will signal the
arrival of a Canadian high pressure system, providing cooler and
drier air for much of next week.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 AM CDT
     Saturday for WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072.

     Heat Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for WIZ062-067-068.

LM...None.
&&

Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...Davis
Saturday through Thursday...Davis

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
312 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-200815-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond Du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
312 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

An Excessive Heat Warning is now in effect for all of southern
Wisconsin today and tonight. The heat index will climb to 105 to
110 this afternoon, only dropping into the upper 70s to mid 80s
for tonight.

The morning thunderstorms will diminish quickly with dry weather
expected through the afternoon. More storms are possible tonight,
mainly north of Milwaukee and Madison. There is a slight risk of
severe storms tonight. Large hail, damaging winds and heavy
rainfall are the main hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Temperatures will remain warm on Saturday. We could see heat index
readings of 95 to 100. A heat advisory may still be needed for
areas south of Milwaukee and Madison. Much will depend on storm
trends tonight into Saturday and any lingering clouds.

There are chances for thunderstorms Saturday into Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed tonight.

LMZ643>646-200815-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
312 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters from
Sheboygan Wisconsin to Winthrop Harbor Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a chance for thunderstorms early this morning and again
later tonight. There is a slight risk of severe storms tonight.
Large hail and damaging winds are the main hazards.

Very humid air in place across the region may result in patchy
dense fog over the Lake Michigan waters.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Thunderstorm chances can be expected at times through early
Sunday morning.

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-200815-
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
312 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the open waters of Lake
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There are chances for thunderstorms this morning and again
tonight.  A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible.

Very humid air in place across the region may result in patchy
dense fog over the Lake Michigan waters.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

There are chances for thunderstorms into Sunday.

www.weather.gov/mkx

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
148 AM CDT FRI JUL 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0128 AM     TSTM WND GST     6 WNW SPRING GREEN      43.21N 90.19W
07/19/2019  M53 MPH          SAUK               WI   ASOS

            LONE ROCK ASOS AT TRI-COUNTY REGIONAL
            AIRPORT.

&&

WOOD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
152 AM CDT FRI JUL 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N SPRING GREEN        43.19N 90.07W
07/19/2019                   SAUK               WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A FEW TREES DOWN IN SPRING GREEN. TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

WOOD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
156 AM CDT FRI JUL 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0101 AM     TSTM WND DMG     LA VALLE                43.58N 90.13W
07/19/2019                   SAUK               WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A FEW TREES DOWN IN LA VALLE. TIME ESTIMATED
            FROM RADAR.

&&

WOOD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
217 AM CDT FRI JUL 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WSW LODI              43.31N 89.55W
07/19/2019                   COLUMBIA           WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WIRES DOWN WEST OF LODI. TIME ESTIMATED FROM
            RADAR.

&&

WOOD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
231 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

WIZ057-058-063-064-190815-
Dodge-Columbia-Jefferson-Dane-
231 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN DANE...NORTHWESTERN
JEFFERSON AND SOUTHWESTERN DODGE COUNTIES...

At 231 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Sun Prairie,
moving southeast at 35 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Eastern Madison, Sun Prairie, Watertown, Lake Mills, Marshall,
Waterloo, Cottage Grove, Deerfield, Cambridge, Lake Ripley, Milford,
Deansville, East Bristol and Hubbleton.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4314 8930 4331 8919 4321 8873 4295 8888
TIME...MOT...LOC 0731Z 295DEG 29KT 4319 8915

MARQUARDT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
313 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

WIZ064-065-070-190845-
Walworth-Waukesha-Jefferson-
313 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL WAUKESHA AND
NORTHEASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES...

At 313 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Johnson Creek,
or near Jefferson, moving southeast at 35 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Watertown, Fort Atkinson, Jefferson, Delafield, Okauchee Lake,
Oconomowoc, Johnson Creek, Dousman, Palmyra, Ixonia, Rome, Nashotah,
Milford, Hebron, Sullivan, Oconomowoc Lake, Pipersville, Helenville,
Nws Milwaukee/sullivan and Lake Lac La Belle.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4302 8891 4318 8880 4309 8836 4282 8856
TIME...MOT...LOC 0813Z 297DEG 31KT 4307 8877

MARQUARDT