Severe Thunderstorm Warning 4, NWS Milwaukee, WI

970 
WWUS53 KMKX 052225
SVSMKX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
525 PM CDT Sun May 5 2019

WIC111-052245-
/O.CON.KMKX.SV.W.0004.000000T0000Z-190505T2245Z/
Sauk WI-
525 PM CDT Sun May 5 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT
FOR CENTRAL SAUK COUNTY...

At 524 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 9 miles northwest of
Prairie Du Sac, moving southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Baraboo, Prairie Du Sac, Sauk City, North Freedom, Merrimac, Rock
Springs, Loganville, Leland, Devils Lake St Park and Hill Point.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

If you are on a boat on an inland lake or the Wisconsin River, seek 
immediate harbor now!

&&

LAT...LON 4351 9007 4343 8960 4338 8960 4336 8965
      4336 8967 4331 8973 4328 8971 4327 8972
      4324 8977 4324 8980 4323 8981 4335 9018
TIME...MOT...LOC 2224Z 296DEG 30KT 4335 8990 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

MBK

443 
WWUS53 KMKX 052244
SVSMKX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
544 PM CDT Sun May 5 2019

WIC111-052253-
/O.EXP.KMKX.SV.W.0004.000000T0000Z-190505T2245Z/
Sauk WI-
544 PM CDT Sun May 5 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL SAUK COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 545 PM CDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning will be exiting southeast Sauk 
County in the next 5 to 10 minutes.  Therefore, the warning will be 
allowed to expire.  

Hail and gusty winds are still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 4351 9007 4343 8960 4338 8960 4336 8965
      4336 8967 4331 8973 4328 8971 4327 8972
      4324 8977 4324 8980 4323 8981 4335 9018
TIME...MOT...LOC 2243Z 293DEG 34KT 4328 8969 

$$

MBK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
200 PM CDT Sun May 5 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Monday...Forecast confidence is medium to high.

Approaching cold front and instability will continue to generate
showers and a few thunderstorms across southern WI tonight into
Monday. Low level jet reinvigorates across the area later tonight
keeping the threat for showers going across the tightening low
level baroclinic zone across southern WI. Lingering high low level
moisture and passing weaker mid-level short waves should continue
to generate showers across southern WI through Monday.
Temperatures will be much cooler due to clouds and shifting winds
to the northeast.

Monday night and Tuesday - Confidence...Medium
Surface front will be off to our south though some lingering 850
frontal forcing maybe enough to keep some showers going into the
evening hours. Otherwise high pressure is expected to build in and
carve out an area of subsidence for Tuesday resulting in dry
conditions.

Wednesday through Thursday evening - Confidence...Medium
Cool, wet and unsettled period shaping up for southern WI. Models
continue to show decent agreement on approaching low pressure
passing just to our southeast. WAA/moist advection ramps up at the
outset with rain developing as soon as later Tuesday night (per
the ECMWF and GFS). Rain will be widespread Wednesday into
Thursday with DCVA associated with arrival of mid level wave
enhancing the forcing. Heaviest rain potential for this aspect of
the system looks to be Wednesday afternoon and evening. While pops
are pretty high this period we will need to eventually go even
higher. Then surface low is still progd to track to our south and
southeast, though eventual track still has some uncertainty
especially with the GEM and latest ECMWF showing a bit more of a
northern track. So that warm front still has some potential to
sneak a little closer to SRN WI. So will hang onto the thunder
chances for now in the south on Thursday. As the low passes east
later Thursday into Thursday evening the cold air advection will
ramp up. Drier will work in as well with precipitation chances
diminishing.

Friday through Sunday - Confidence...Low
Low level thermal trough will be in place for Friday, most
amplified on the ECMWF then this will get whisked east quickly
Friday night per the GFS with a quick hitting system arriving for
Saturday. Meanwhile the ECMWF lingers the low level thermal trough
into Saturday with the next weather maker arriving for Sunday.
meanwhile the GFS trends dry for Sunday. Will use blended guidance
at this point.

&&

.AVIATION(21Z TAFS)...No change to ongoing thinking. Scattered showers
and storms this evening will result in pockets of lower ceilings and
vsbys. More widespread lower ceilings are expected later tonight into
Monday morning as the slow-moving cold front moves through.

&&

.MARINE...A few thunderstorms may affect the nearshore and open waters
this evening ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front will
settle into central Lake Michigan overnight, and potentially could
sag into the south if the north winds across northern Lake Michigan
keep it progressing southward. However held back on this solution
for now. Did bump up wind gusts in the wake of the front over the
north into the 20-25 kt range due to the low level cold air advection.
Wind gusts may be higher in the wake of the front later tonight
and Monday over the nearshore waters as well, but again too much
uncertainty at this point to bump up too much. For now, kept north
gusts up to 20 kts during this period.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

Tonight/Monday and Aviation/Marine...MBK
Monday Night through Sunday...Collar

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
209 PM CDT Sun May 5 2019

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-061915-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond Du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
209 PM CDT Sun May 5 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Rest of This Afternoon and Tonight

A few thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening. An
isolated severe thunderstorm is possible over south central
Wisconsin. The primary severe weather threat would be large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Sunday

Rain Wednesday and Thursday may result in minor river flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening.

LMZ643>646-061915-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
209 PM CDT Sun May 5 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters from
Sheboygan Wisconsin to Winthrop Harbor Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Rest of This Afternoon and Tonight

A few southwest gusts to 25 knots are possible this afternoon and
evening.

There is a chance for thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Sunday

North winds may gust to 20 to 25 knots on Monday.

Brisk east to northeast winds and high waves may develop for Tuesday
through Thursday night.

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-061915-
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
209 PM CDT Sun May 5 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the open waters of Lake
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Rest of This Afternoon and Tonight

A few thunderstorms are possible this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Sunday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Collar
www.weather.gov/mkx

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
405 PM CDT Sun May 5 2019

WIZ056-052300-
Sauk-
405 PM CDT Sun May 5 2019

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SAUK COUNTY...

At 401 PM CDT, radar indicated a line of strong thunderstorms
extending from 7 miles south of Tomah to 6 miles southwest of
Viroqua. Movement was southeast at 30 mph.  Other scattered
thunderstorms were developing ahead of this line.

Wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with
these storms. Also, frequent lightning is occurring with this line
of storms.

Locations impacted include...
Baraboo, Reedsburg, Wisconsin Dells, Lake Delton, Spring Green, West
Baraboo, Plain, North Freedom, La Valle, Rock Springs, Loganville,
Ironton, Lime Ridge, Leland, Devils Lake St Park and Hill Point.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

If you are on or near an inland lake, get out of the water and
move indoors or inside a vehicle well ahead of these approaching
thunderstorms. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles from
the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not
be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 4364 9031 4364 8978 4360 8976 4360 8972
      4357 8973 4356 8960 4355 8960 4319 8990
      4320 8999 4319 9002 4315 9005 4316 9009
      4317 9019 4355 9019 4356 9031
TIME...MOT...LOC 2104Z 296DEG 27KT 4388 9045 4347 9094

MBK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
506 PM CDT Sun May 5 2019

WIZ056-062-052245-
Iowa-Sauk-
506 PM CDT Sun May 5 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SAUK COUNTY...

At 505 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 8 miles southwest of
Reedsburg, moving east at 40 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph and penny size hail are possible with
this storm.

This storm will be near...
  Prairie Du Sac around 535 PM CDT.
  Sauk City around 540 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Lime Ridge, North
Freedom, Loganville, Leland, Rock Springs, Devils Lake St Park, Hill
Point, Merrimac and Plain.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

If you are on an inland lake, get out of the water and move indoors
or inside a vehicle as these storms approach. Remember, lightning
can strike out to 10 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can
hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move
to safe shelter now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 4354 9019 4354 8960 4341 8960 4337 8963
      4336 8967 4332 8972 4330 8973 4328 8971
      4327 8972 4324 8977 4324 8980 4320 8984
      4334 9019
TIME...MOT...LOC 2205Z 288DEG 34KT 4343 9010

MBK