Severe Thunderstorm Warning 15, NWS Milwaukee, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
220 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

.SHORT TERM...
This afternoon and Tonight.

The MCS near the MS River is expected to continue ewd around
35-40 kts as it encounters MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/KG and
lowering MLCIN values. Damaging straight-line winds are the main
concern. The gust front is currently out ahead of the line which
may limit the SVR wind potential unless it becomes more balanced.
Afterward, the larger scale LLJ will focus from IA into nrn WI
where a couple MCVs will track ewd. The LLJ will gradually veer
through the night and layover into srn WI for the early Fri AM
hours. Scattered tstorms are expected this evening at times in the
wake of the MCS but another MCS is then expected to move sewd
into srn WI for the early Fri AM hours. Some heavy rain concerns
since some locations could have multiple rounds of tstorms but
overall the flash flood risk remains low.

Friday.
The outflow boundary/stationary front may trigger isold to sct
tstorm development for Fri afternoon. No upper dynamics are
present and wind shear is weak, but pulse SVR storms will be
possible due to moderate to large CAPE and weak CIN.

.LONG TERM...

Friday Night through Sunday...Forecast confidence high.

The frontal boundary will likely sag south to around the WI/IL state
Friday night as mid level ridging builds in the plains and nudges
into Wisconsin. Thunderstorm chances will continue into the evening
due to weak shortwave activity moving over this frontal boundary.
Most models, with the exception of the NAM which brings in cooler
temps, show plenty of instability through the evening.

The mid level ridge will push more into the region on Saturday and
southwest flow at the surface will bring warmer temps into the
region. Many areas, especially in the west could hit 90 degrees.
There isn't much in the way of forcing for Saturday so it will
probably be dry. However the weak cap does erode somewhat later in
the day with 2000 plus of cape so can't rule out a thunderstorm if
the cap weakens.

The ridge remains in place on Sunday then starts to break down
Sunday night or Monday as shortwave activity moves through. Sunday
has a good chance of being dry then precip chances increase during
the evening and overnight with the short wave activity.

Monday through Thursday...Forecast confidence medium.

Zonal flow will dominate with shortwave activity moving through. A
weak frontal boundary will be wavering across the region
providing the focus for on and off thunderstorm chances during
this period. Somewhat milder temperatures are expected, with highs
in the lower to middle 80s. The humidity will likely continue
with dew points in the upper 60s during the day.

&&

.AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...
Most Vsby and Cig restrictions will occur in and around
thunderstorms for this afternoon, tonight, and Friday. Thus the
prevailing conditions will mostly be VFR although clouds will be
present much of the time.

&&

.MARINE...
The main hazard for Lake MI will be thunderstorms with
gusty winds for late this afternoon into Fri. The other hazard
concern is dense fog as a humid airmass moves over the cold waters
of Lake MI. Light to modest winds are expected for today and
through the weekend.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

Tonight/Friday and Aviation/Marine...Gehring
Friday Night through Thursday...Marquardt

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
317 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-282030-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond Du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
317 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening. Another
round is possible overnight. Some strong to severe storms are
likely during this time. Damaging winds, large hail, and heavy
rainfall are the main hazards. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in
effect.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Thursday

Thunderstorms are possible each day from Friday through the
weekend and into early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed this afternoon and evening.

LMZ643>646-282030-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
317 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters from
Sheboygan Wisconsin to Winthrop Harbor Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Thunderstorms are expected early this evening. Some strong to
severe storms are possible during this time. Damaging winds, large
hail, and heavy rainfall are the main hazards.

There will also be chances for dense fog tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Thursday

Thunderstorms are possible each day from Friday through the
weekend and into early next week.

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-282030-
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
317 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the open waters of Lake
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Thunderstorms are expected this evening. Some strong to severe
storms are possible during this time. Damaging winds, large hail,
and very heavy rainfall are the main hazards.

There will also be chances for dense fog tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Thursday

Thunderstorms are possible each day from Friday through the
weekend and into early next week.

MRC

www.weather.gov/mkx

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
236 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

WIZ056-062-067-272000-
Lafayette-Iowa-Sauk-
236 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT LAFAYETTE...IOWA AND
SAUK COUNTIES...

At 235 PM CDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from Elroy to near Lancaster. Movement was
east at 40 mph.

Localized wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail are possible
with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Baraboo, Reedsburg, Dodgeville, Prairie Du Sac, Sauk City, Wisconsin
Dells, Mineral Point, Darlington, Lake Wisconsin, Lake Delton, Spring
Green, West Baraboo, Shullsburg, Belmont, Benton, Argyle,
Blanchardville, Somers, Barneveld and Wiota.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4320 9043 4321 9029 4317 9019 4355 9019
      4356 9031 4364 9031 4364 8979 4360 8976
      4360 8972 4357 8973 4356 8960 4338 8960
      4336 8967 4331 8973 4327 8972 4321 8984
      4251 8984 4251 9042
TIME...MOT...LOC 1935Z 276DEG 35KT 4375 9030 4284 9078

GEHRING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
316 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0256 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 WNW SPRING GREEN      43.21N 90.19W
06/27/2019  M55 MPH          SAUK               WI   ASOS

            LONE ROCK AIRPORT.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
324 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 SE REEDSBURG          43.53N 89.98W
06/27/2019  M46 MPH          SAUK               WI   AWOS

            REEDSBURG AIRPORT.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
326 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

WIZ046-047-057-063-067-068-272130-
Green-Columbia-Lafayette-Green Lake-Marquette-Dane-
326 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT LAFAYETTE...GREEN
LAKE...GREEN...COLUMBIA...MARQUETTE AND DANE COUNTIES...

At 326 PM CDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from 8 miles northwest of Westfield to near
Baraboo to near Council Hill. Movement was east to southeast at 40
mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Madison, Sun Prairie, Fitchburg, Middleton, Stoughton, Waunakee,
Monroe, Verona, Portage, Oregon, McFarland, Monona, Mount Horeb,
Windsor, Edgerton, Columbus, Marshall, Sauk City, Brodhead and
Darlington.

LAT...LON 4363 8889 4363 8901 4285 8901 4284 8937
      4250 8937 4251 9036 4252 9036 4281 9018
      4282 8984 4321 8984 4327 8972 4336 8967
      4338 8960 4356 8960 4358 8974 4364 8972
      4364 8960 4398 8960 4398 8889
TIME...MOT...LOC 2026Z 306DEG 35KT 4400 8958 4346 8968 4245 9031

GEHRING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
335 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0318 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ARENA                   43.16N 89.91W
06/27/2019                   IOWA               WI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            IOWA COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTS
            LOTS OF TREES DOWN BETWEEN MINERAL POINT AND
            ARENA.

&&

HALBACH