Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS Milwaukee, WI

847 
WWUS53 KMKX 251847
SVSMKX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
147 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019

WIC105-251930-
/O.CON.KMKX.SV.W.0012.000000T0000Z-190625T1930Z/
Rock WI-
147 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 PM CDT
FOR EASTERN ROCK COUNTY...

At 147 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Beloit, moving
northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Janesville, Beloit, Milton, Tiffany, Hanover, Johnstown Center,
Avalon, Shopiere, Afton and Emerald Grove.

People attending Tour of America's Dairyland in Janesville should
seek safe shelter immediately!

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4253 8919 4262 8922 4285 8896 4284 8877
      4263 8878 4249 8909
TIME...MOT...LOC 1847Z 236DEG 27KT 4259 8911 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

GAGAN

252 
WWUS53 KMKX 251902
SVSMKX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
202 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019

WIC105-251930-
/O.CON.KMKX.SV.W.0012.000000T0000Z-190625T1930Z/
Rock WI-
202 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 PM CDT
FOR EASTERN ROCK COUNTY...

At 202 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Janesville,
moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Janesville, Beloit, Milton, Tiffany, Johnstown Center, Avalon,
Shopiere, Afton and Emerald Grove.

People attending Tour of America's Dairyland in Janesville should
seek safe shelter immediately!

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4255 8905 4271 8912 4285 8896 4284 8877
      4263 8878 4253 8899
TIME...MOT...LOC 1902Z 234DEG 27KT 4264 8897 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

GAGAN

404 
WWUS53 KMKX 251911
SVSMKX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
211 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019

WIC105-251921-
/O.CAN.KMKX.SV.W.0012.000000T0000Z-190625T1930Z/
Rock WI-
211 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN ROCK COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However small hail and
gusty winds are still possible with this thunderstorm.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
south central and southeastern Wisconsin.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
Milwaukee/Sullivan.

LAT...LON 4255 8905 4271 8912 4285 8896 4284 8877
      4263 8878 4253 8899
TIME...MOT...LOC 1910Z 234DEG 27KT 4268 8889 

$$

GAGAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1212 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019

.UPDATE...

The MCV is located just south of Dubuque, IA...and will reach
Rockford between 18-19z this afternoon. Sharp subsidence in the
wake of the short wave should effectively shut down any precip
chances once it moves by...despite the weak front moving in.
This would mean much of south central Wisconsin will be rather
quiet by 19-20z. Showers associated with the MCV are moving
through Grant and into Sauk, Iowa and Lafayette counties at mid
day. They are moving east at about 30kts. It looks like any
strong to severe threat would be limited to the southeast corner
of the forecast area...somewhere between 19-22z. But, not sure if
we'll be able muster up enough CAPE by the time this MCV gets too
far east. SPC did trim the slight risk a bit to the SE...that's
good. The new model guidance, especially the high res HRRR is
rather conservative on qpf/storms this afternoon, but does focus
attention on our far SE after 20z.

&&

.AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. There are some
showers associated with a mid level disturbance that will drift
across far southern Wisconsin between 18-22z this afternoon. These
showers could develop into a few strong thunderstorms (possibly
even isolated severe) across southeast Wisconsin between 19-22z.
Large hail and strong winds are the concern. We should generally
be clear of the shower/storm threat after 22z this afternoon. As
always, conditions may briefly drop to MVFR levels within any
stronger showers/storms. We could see some rural fog late tonight,
especially west of Madison. Breezy southwest winds this afternoon
will veer to the west this evening in the wake of a weak cold
front. Winds will be light tonight, remaining westerly on
Wednesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 858 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019)

UPDATE...

Satellite imagery shows a beautiful looking MCV pushing into
eastern IA at mid morning...passing just south of Waterloo, IA. It
should reach the Rockford area around 18z/1 pm this
afternoon...reaching southern Lake Michigan by 3-4 pm this
afternoon. The timing is favorable for peak heating and
instability to build across southern Wisconsin, coupled with a
weak surface cold front pushing in. We'll see dewpoints creep back
up into the mid 60s...especially over the southern half of the
forecast area. The MCV may provide favorable deep UVV to enhance
the development of stronger thunderstorms across the area. We
expect them to remain scattered in coverage, and a few could be
severe. Large hail and strong damaging winds are the main threat.
The current forecast has all this covered well.

MARINE...

Winds will pick up over the course of the day from the
southwest with gusts reaching 20-25 kts in the afternoon to early
evening. Thus a Small Craft Advisory is in effect from Noon to
7pm today. The open waters will be a bit less breezy overall.

A few strong thunderstorms are possible this afternoon/evening
with gale force gusts likely with any stronger storms over the
water.

Winds will veer to the west this evening in the wake of a weak
cold front pushing through. Winds will remain westerly on
Wednesday. Winds will back to the southwest by Thursday and remain
southwest right through the coming weekend.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 628 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019)

UPDATE...
No changes to the current forecast

AVIATION(12Z TAFS)...
Clear skies are expected for much of the day with southwest winds
increasing into the afternoon and will become quite breezy. By the
mid afternoon hours through the early evening we will have
concerns for strong storms. These storms remain very uncertain but
any storms that do form could become quite strong. By the late
evening storms will push out and the region will dry up for
Wednesday.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 338 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019)

SHORT TERM...

Today and Tonight...Forecast Confidence is Medium...

Quiet start to the day is expected with lots of sun. Temperatures
today will quickly warm into the upper 70s to low 80s due to
breezy southwest winds advecting in some warmer air in addition to
the sun. With these warmer conditions those southwest winds will
also advect some higher moisture into southern Wisconsin as well,
primarily the southeastern part of the CWA. This will set the
stage for potential storms in the afternoon/evening.

The environment looks fairly conducive with 2000-3000 J/kg of
MLCAPE and 35-45 kts of effective bulk shear. The forecast
hodograph is somewhat lacking given effective SRH from 100-150
m2/s2, however much of the low level vorticity will be streamwise
in addition to fairly decent low level SRH over 100 m2/s2. While
the environment may be conducive to some stronger storms the
region lacks sufficient forcing making any severe potential very
conditionally dependent on convection initiation. Currently CAMs
do not have much convection in our region through the period, so
at this potential for severe weather remains fairly low.

The main forcing for storms will likely have to come from weak
mid to upper level forcing associated with weak troughing. In
conjunction, a weak cold front with some depth stretching from
east central WI into east central Iowa may provide enough forcing
to lift a few cells to their LFC and allow for those storms to
fully tap into the environment. Ultimately, a few severe storms
are possible with hail/wind the main threat though a weak tornado
cannot be ruled out.

Into the evening/overnight, storms/showers will push out of the
region leaving dry conditions to follow.

LONG TERM...

Wednesday through Friday Night...Forecast Confidence is Medium.

Clearing skies and dry weather is expected for Wednesday as winds
become more W/NW and push the more moisture rich air to the south.
Highs may warm a degree or two compared to today with values in
the low to mid 80s and 70s near the lake. Wednesday night into
Thursday a strengthening ridge axis builds to our west. Winds
through the lower levels shift back to the S/SW and the moisture
rich airmass moves northward. There are some model differences
but a shortwave riding the ridge drops E/SE across the area and
could trigger storms across MN/IA/WI early Thursday morning.

A stronger upper level wave will move across the area later in the
day Thursday. Lapse rates aloft steepen and with surface dewpoints
climbing into the mid to upper 60s and afternoon highs in the low
to mid 80s, CAPE rockets up to between 3,000 to 4,000 J/kg.
However, the one thing we lack is deep shear so storm organization
will be lacking. Gusty winds, large hail, and very heavy rainfall
are main threats with any storms that do form. Storms could
continue into the overnight hours Thursday as the upper wave moves
to the south. Good S/SW flow continues on Friday and this should
keep dewpoints in the 60s and highs in the 80s. In fact, with some
better clearing on Friday and the ridge axis shifting slightly
eastward, highs could approach the 90 degree mark for our western
locations. We'll lack any real significant forcing on Friday so
even though the unstable airmass hangs around, we may not be able
to tap into it. Friday night into Saturday a weak shortwave will
drop SE out of northern MN and this feature should spark
convection during the overnight hours.

Saturday through Monday Night...Forecast Confidence is Medium.

The forecast for the weekend has become a bit murky as differences
in the models have increased. The biggest differences hinge on
where the axis of the ridge sets up in relation to our area. Some
models keep it just west and multiple shortwaves dropping S/SE
through the area over the weekend keeping storms in the forecast.
Other models have the ridge even further to the west and actually
bring a surface high over northern Michigan. This would result in
more of an easterly flow off the lake, limiting thunderstorm
chances and possibly keeping temperatures on the cooler side.
Sticking with a blend of guidance for now with a slight weight
towards the warmer guidance.

AVIATION(09Z TAFS)...

West to southwest winds will increase this morning. Expect a fair
amount of gustiness through the day. Winds should diminish with
sunset and the passage of a weak surface trough.

A few thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday afternoon, but
coverage is currently looking rather sparse. Any storms that are
able to develop will be capable of producing heavy rain and strong
wind gusts.

MARINE...

Winds will pick up over the course of the day from the
west/southwest with gusts reaching 20-25 kts in the afternoon to
early evening. Thus a Small Craft Advisory has been issued from
Noon to 7pm today. The open waters will be a bit less breezy
overall.

A few strong thunderstorms are possible this afternoon/evening
with gale force gusts likely with any stronger storms over the
water.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LMZ643>646.

&&

Update...Davis
Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...Davis
Wednesday THROUGH Monday...Stumpf

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
349 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-260900-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond Du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
349 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There are chances for thunderstorms today with a few strong to
severe storms possible, gusty winds and large hail are the main
threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

There are chances for thunderstorms each day from Wednesday
through Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening.

LMZ643>646-260900-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
349 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters from
Sheboygan Wisconsin to Winthrop Harbor Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There are chances for thunderstorms today with a few strong to
severe storms possible, gusty winds and large hail are the main
threats.

Strong west to southwest winds develop this afternoon with gusts
to 20 to 25 knots. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect from Noon
until 7 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

There are chances for thunderstorms each day from Wednesday
through Monday.

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-260900-
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
349 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the open waters of Lake
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There are chances for thunderstorms today with a few strong to
severe storms possible, gusty winds and large hail are the main
threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

There are chances for thunderstorms each day from Wednesday
through Monday.

www.weather.gov/mkx