Alert archive / Wisconsin / River Flood Warnings in 2019
River Flood Warning 5, NWS Milwaukee, WI
NWS Milwaukee, WI issued this river flood warning at Feb 4, 2019, 4:13 PM CST for Lafayette County, Wisconsin. It took effect at Feb 5, 2019, 1:30 AM CST. It was in force for 19 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 4, 2019, 4:13 PM CST (22:13 UTC)
- In effect from
- Feb 5, 2019, 1:30 AM CST
- Expired
- Feb 5, 2019, 8:38 PM CST
- In force
- 19 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Milwaukee, WI
- Area
- Storm-based polygon
- Flood severity
- Minor
County Lafayette County, WI
The radar
The Milwaukee radar (KMKX), 110 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:17 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The river
Written for the forecast point Pecatonica River near Blanchardville (BCHW3).
- Action stage
- 9 ft
- Minor stage
- 11 ft
- Moderate stage
- 14 ft
- Major stage
- 16 ft
This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests
Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 05433000, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.
The text
As transmitted.
183
WGUS43 KMKX 042213
FLWMKX
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
413 PM CST Mon Feb 4 2019
...The National Weather Service in Milwaukee/Sullivan has issued a
flood warning for the following rivers in Wisconsin...
East Branch Pecatonica River Near Blanchardville affecting
Lafayette County
&&
WIC065-051012-
/O.NEW.KMKX.FL.W.0005.190205T0800Z-190206T1200Z/
/BCHW3.1.IJ.190205T0800Z.190205T1200Z.190206T0000Z.NO/
413 PM CST Mon Feb 4 2019
The National Weather Service in Milwaukee/Sullivan has issued a
* Flood Warning for
The East Branch Pecatonica River Near Blanchardville.
* At 2:00 PM Monday the stage was 9.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Will rise above flood stage late tonight and
continue to rise to near 11.4 feet tomorrow morning. The river
will then fall below flood stage tomorrow evening.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet...Floodwaters cover a portion of Highway H
and floodwaters are into McKellar Park in Blanchardville.
&&
River forecasts are available for some but not all river gaging
locations. The 7 day river forecast takes into account past
precipitation, soil moisture conditions, and predicted
precipitation for the basin. Precipitation is for the next 24 hours
in the future from April through September and for 48 hours in the
future from October through March.
(stages in ft.) Bank- Latest Forecast stages
- Flood full observed ...for 6 pm...
Location stage stage stage/time Tue Wed Thu Fri
Blanchardville 11.0 9.0 9.36 02 PM 02/04 10.0 11.0 8.5 7.5
- Highest 24 hour change
- observed in river stage
- stage in (ft.) up to Highest stage
- the last latest observed forecast in
- 7 days stage next 7 days
Blanchardville 9.36 02 PM 02/04 2.35 11.40 06 AM 02/05
Below is predicted precipitation information in 6 hour increments
for the listed sites. This information is updated twice daily-morning
and evening. Precipitation prediction is for 48 hours into the future
from October through March and for 24 hours into the future from
April through September.
Blanchardville: 6 pm-midn Mon Feb 04 0.04
Blanchardville: midn-6 am Tue Feb 05 0.07
Blanchardville: 6 am-noon Tue Feb 05 0.12
Blanchardville: noon-6 pm Tue Feb 05 0.00
Blanchardville: 6 pm-midn Tue Feb 05 0.00
Blanchardville: midn-6 am Wed Feb 06 0.00
Blanchardville: 6 am-noon Wed Feb 06 0.00
Blanchardville: noon-6 pm Wed Feb 06 0.00
&&
LAT...LON 4283 8992 4284 8984 4279 8981 4272 8984
4272 8991 4279 8991
$$4 follow-up statements
256
WGUS83 KMKX 050237
FLSMKX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
837 PM CST Mon Feb 4 2019
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Wisconsin...
East Branch Pecatonica River Near Blanchardville affecting Lafayette
County
&&
WIC065-051436-
/O.EXT.KMKX.FL.W.0005.190205T0730Z-190206T1400Z/
/BCHW3.1.IJ.190205T0730Z.190205T1800Z.190206T0200Z.NO/
837 PM CST Mon Feb 4 2019
The Flood Warning continues for
The East Branch Pecatonica River Near Blanchardville.
* At 7:00 PM Monday the stage was 10.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage late tonight and continue to
rise and crest near 11.4 feet by tomorrow early afternoon. The
river will then fall below flood stage tomorrow evening.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet...Floodwaters cover a portion of Highway H
and floodwaters are into McKellar Park in Blanchardville.
&&
River forecasts are available for some but not all river gaging
locations. The 7 day river forecast takes into account past
precipitation, soil moisture conditions, and predicted
precipitation for the basin. Precipitation is for the next 24 hours
in the future from April through September and for 48 hours in the
future from October through March.
(stages in ft.) Bank- Latest Forecast stages
- Flood full observed ...for 6 pm...
Location stage stage stage/time Tue Wed Thu Fri
Blanchardville 11.0 9.0 10.22 07 PM 02/04 11.2 8.5 7.6 7.5
- Highest 24 hour change
- observed in river stage
- stage in (ft.) up to Highest stage
- the last latest observed forecast in
- 7 days stage next 7 days
Blanchardville 10.22 07 PM 02/04 3.03 11.40 12 PM 02/05
Below is predicted precipitation information in 6 hour increments
for the listed sites. This information is updated twice daily-morning
and evening. Precipitation prediction is for 48 hours into the future
from October through March and for 24 hours into the future from
April through September.
Blanchardville: 6 pm-midn Mon Feb 04 0.00
Blanchardville: midn-6 am Tue Feb 05 0.00
Blanchardville: 6 am-noon Tue Feb 05 0.00
Blanchardville: noon-6 pm Tue Feb 05 0.00
Blanchardville: 6 pm-midn Tue Feb 05 0.11
Blanchardville: midn-6 am Wed Feb 06 0.03
Blanchardville: 6 am-noon Wed Feb 06 0.00
Blanchardville: noon-6 pm Wed Feb 06 0.00
&&
LAT...LON 4283 8992 4284 8984 4279 8981 4272 8984
4272 8991 4279 8991
$$846
WGUS83 KMKX 051322
FLSMKX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
722 AM CST Tue Feb 5 2019
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Illinois...Wisconsin...
Fox River Near New Munster affecting Lake and Kenosha Counties
Pecatonica River At Martintown affecting Green County
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Wisconsin...
East Branch Pecatonica River Near Blanchardville affecting
Lafayette County
&&
WIC065-060122-
/O.CON.KMKX.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-190206T1400Z/
/BCHW3.1.IJ.190205T0730Z.190205T1800Z.190206T0200Z.NO/
722 AM CST Tue Feb 5 2019
The Flood Warning continues for
The East Branch Pecatonica River Near Blanchardville.
* At 6:00 AM Tuesday the stage was 11.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 11.4 feet by this
afternoon. The river will fall below flood stage this evening.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet...Floodwaters cover a portion of Highway H
and floodwaters are into McKellar Park in Blanchardville.
&&
River forecasts are available for some but not all river gaging
locations. The 7 day river forecast takes into account past
precipitation, soil moisture conditions, and predicted
precipitation for the basin. Precipitation is for the next 24 hours
in the future from April through September and for 48 hours in the
future from October through March.
(stages in ft.) Bank- Latest Forecast stages
- Flood full observed ...for 6 pm...
Location stage stage stage/time Wed Thu Fri Sat
Blanchardville 11.0 9.0 11.24 06 AM 02/05 11.2 8.5 7.6 7.5
- Highest 24 hour change
- observed in river stage
- stage in (ft.) up to Highest stage
- the last latest observed forecast in
- 7 days stage next 7 days
Blanchardville 11.24 06 AM 02/05 3.21 11.40 12 PM 02/05
Below is predicted precipitation information in 6 hour increments
for the listed sites. This information is updated twice daily-morning
and evening. Precipitation prediction is for 48 hours into the future
from October through March and for 24 hours into the future from
April through September.
Blanchardville: 6 pm-midn Tue Feb 05 0.00
Blanchardville: midn-6 am Wed Feb 06 0.00
Blanchardville: 6 am-noon Wed Feb 06 0.00
Blanchardville: noon-6 pm Wed Feb 06 0.04
Blanchardville: 6 pm-midn Wed Feb 06 0.12
Blanchardville: midn-6 am Thu Feb 07 0.01
Blanchardville: 6 am-noon Thu Feb 07 0.00
Blanchardville: noon-6 pm Thu Feb 07 0.00
&&
LAT...LON 4283 8992 4284 8984 4279 8981 4272 8984
4272 8991 4279 8991
$$
ILC097-WIC059-060122-
/O.EXT.KMKX.FL.W.0006.190205T2228Z-190210T0600Z/
/NMSW3.1.IC.190205T2228Z.190206T1800Z.190210T0000Z.NO/
722 AM CST Tue Feb 5 2019
The Flood Warning continues for
The Fox River Near New Munster.
* At 7:00 AM Tuesday the stage was 10.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by late this afternoon and
continue to rise to near 12.0 feet by tomorrow early afternoon. The
river will fall below flood stage by Saturday evening.
* Impact...At 12.1 feet...Water is up to the first floor levels of
some homes in the Town of Wheatland and Village of Salem Lakes area
along Riverside Drive and Shorewood Drive.
&&
River forecasts are available for some but not all river gaging
locations. The 7 day river forecast takes into account past
precipitation, soil moisture conditions, and predicted
precipitation for the basin. Precipitation is for the next 24 hours
in the future from April through September and for 48 hours in the
future from October through March.
(stages in ft.) Bank- Latest Forecast stages
- Flood full observed ...for 6 pm...
Location stage stage stage/time Wed Thu Fri Sat
New Munster 11.0 10.0 10.19 07 AM 02/05 11.1 12.0 11.8 11.4
- Highest 24 hour change
- observed in river stage
- stage in (ft.) up to Highest stage
- the last latest observed forecast in
- 7 days stage next 7 days
New Munster 10.15 06 AM 02/05 1.58 12.00 12 PM 02/06
Below is predicted precipitation information in 6 hour increments
for the listed sites. This information is updated twice daily-morning
and evening. Precipitation prediction is for 48 hours into the future
from October through March and for 24 hours into the future from
April through September.
New Munster: 6 pm-midn Tue Feb 05 0.00
New Munster: 1 am-7 am Wed Feb 06 0.00
New Munster: 6 am-noon Wed Feb 06 0.00
New Munster: noon-6 pm Wed Feb 06 0.00
New Munster: 6 pm-midn Wed Feb 06 0.29
New Munster: midn-6 am Thu Feb 07 0.10
New Munster: 6 am-noon Thu Feb 07 0.00
New Munster: noon-6 pm Thu Feb 07 0.00
&&
LAT...LON 4262 8830 4262 8817 4255 8814 4246 8814
4245 8824 4255 8824
$$
WIC045-060122-
/O.EXT.KMKX.FL.W.0007.190206T0212Z-190209T1330Z/
/MTNW3.1.IC.190206T0212Z.190207T1200Z.190209T0730Z.NO/
722 AM CST Tue Feb 5 2019
The Flood Warning continues for
The Pecatonica River At Martintown.
* At 6:00 AM Tuesday the stage was 12.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by this evening and continue to
rise to near 15.4 feet by Thursday morning. The river will fall
below flood stage by early Saturday morning.
* Impact...At 16.0 feet...Floodwaters are in the back yard of at
least one home in Martintown. Floodwaters affect Martintown Road
and West River Road in the Martintown area. Upstream in Browntown,
floodwaters affect Highway MM and West Indies Road.
&&
River forecasts are available for some but not all river gaging
locations. The 7 day river forecast takes into account past
precipitation, soil moisture conditions, and predicted
precipitation for the basin. Precipitation is for the next 24 hours
in the future from April through September and for 48 hours in the
future from October through March.
(stages in ft.) Bank- Latest Forecast stages
- Flood full observed ...for 6 pm...
Location stage stage stage/time Wed Thu Fri Sat
Martintown 13.5 9.5 12.05 06 AM 02/05 13.2 15.2 15.2 14.0
- Highest 24 hour change
- observed in river stage
- stage in (ft.) up to Highest stage
- the last latest observed forecast in
- 7 days stage next 7 days
Martintown 12.05 06 AM 02/05 2.20 15.40 06 AM 02/07
Below is predicted precipitation information in 6 hour increments
for the listed sites. This information is updated twice daily-morning
and evening. Precipitation prediction is for 48 hours into the future
from October through March and for 24 hours into the future from
April through September.
Martintown: 6 pm-midn Tue Feb 05 0.00
Martintown: midn-6 am Wed Feb 06 0.00
Martintown: 6 am-noon Wed Feb 06 0.00
Martintown: noon-6 pm Wed Feb 06 0.06
Martintown: 6 pm-midn Wed Feb 06 0.13
Martintown: midn-6 am Thu Feb 07 0.02
Martintown: 6 am-noon Thu Feb 07 0.00
Martintown: noon-6 pm Thu Feb 07 0.00
&&
LAT...LON 4272 8992 4272 8984 4263 8980 4251 8970
4251 8988 4260 8993
$$234
WGUS83 KMKX 051638
FLSMKX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1038 AM CST Tue Feb 5 2019
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Wisconsin...Illinois...
East Branch Pecatonica River Near Blanchardville affecting Lafayette
County
Fox River Near New Munster affecting Lake and Kenosha Counties
Pecatonica River At Martintown affecting Green County
&&
WIC065-060438-
/O.EXT.KMKX.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-190206T1312Z/
/BCHW3.1.IC.190205T0730Z.190205T1800Z.190206T0112Z.NO/
1038 AM CST Tue Feb 5 2019
The Flood Warning continues for
The East Branch Pecatonica River Near Blanchardville.
* At 9:00 AM Tuesday the stage was 11.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 11.4 feet by this
afternoon. The river will fall below flood stage this evening.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet...Floodwaters cover a portion of Highway H
and floodwaters are into McKellar Park in Blanchardville.
&&
River forecasts are available for some but not all river gaging
locations. The 7 day river forecast takes into account past
precipitation, soil moisture conditions, and predicted
precipitation for the basin. Precipitation is for the next 24 hours
in the future from April through September and for 48 hours in the
future from October through March.
(stages in ft.) Bank- Latest Forecast stages
- Flood full observed ...for 6 pm...
Location stage stage stage/time Tue Wed Thu Fri
Blanchardville 11.0 9.0 11.27 09 AM 02/05 11.1 8.6 7.6 7.5
- Highest 24 hour change
- observed in river stage
- stage in (ft.) up to Highest stage
- the last latest observed forecast in
- 7 days stage next 7 days
Blanchardville 11.28 08 AM 02/05 2.80 11.40 12 PM 02/05
Below is the latest predicted precipitation information in 6 hour
increments for the listed sites. This information is updated twice
daily - in the morning and evening. Precipitation prediction is for
48 hours into the future from October through March and for 24
hours into the future from April through September.
Blanchardville: 6 am-noon Tue Feb 05 0.00
Blanchardville: noon-6 pm Tue Feb 05 0.04
Blanchardville: 6 pm-midn Tue Feb 05 0.12
Blanchardville: midn-6 am Wed Feb 06 0.01
Blanchardville: 6 am-noon Wed Feb 06 0.00
Blanchardville: noon-6 pm Wed Feb 06 0.00
Blanchardville: 6 pm-midn Wed Feb 06 0.09
Blanchardville: midn-6 am Thu Feb 07 0.13
&&
LAT...LON 4283 8992 4284 8984 4279 8981 4272 8984
4272 8991 4279 8991
$$
ILC097-WIC059-060438-
/O.EXT.KMKX.FL.W.0006.190206T1200Z-190209T0600Z/
/NMSW3.1.IC.190206T1200Z.190207T1200Z.190209T0000Z.NO/
1038 AM CST Tue Feb 5 2019
The Flood Warning continues for
The Fox River Near New Munster.
* At 10:00 AM Tuesday the stage was 10.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by tomorrow morning and continue
to rise to near 11.5 feet by Thursday morning. The river will fall
below flood stage by Friday evening.
* Impact...At 11.5 feet...Water is in the yards of some homes in the
Village of Salem Lakes and Town of Wheatland areas. There are 3-4
inches of water over 77th Street in the Town of Wheatland.
&&
River forecasts are available for some but not all river gaging
locations. The 7 day river forecast takes into account past
precipitation, soil moisture conditions, and predicted
precipitation for the basin. Precipitation is for the next 24 hours
in the future from April through September and for 48 hours in the
future from October through March.
(stages in ft.) Bank- Latest Forecast stages
- Flood full observed ...for 6 pm...
Location stage stage stage/time Tue Wed Thu Fri
New Munster 11.0 10.0 10.31 10 AM 02/05 10.6 11.3 11.3 11.0
- Highest 24 hour change
- observed in river stage
- stage in (ft.) up to Highest stage
- the last latest observed forecast in
- 7 days stage next 7 days
New Munster 10.31 10 AM 02/05 1.59 11.50 06 AM 02/07
Below is the latest predicted precipitation information in 6 hour
increments for the listed sites. This information is updated twice
daily - in the morning and evening. Precipitation prediction is for
48 hours into the future from October through March and for 24
hours into the future from April through September.
New Munster: 6 am-noon Tue Feb 05 0.00
New Munster: noon-6 pm Tue Feb 05 0.00
New Munster: 6 pm-midn Tue Feb 05 0.29
New Munster: midn-6 am Wed Feb 06 0.10
New Munster: 6 am-noon Wed Feb 06 0.00
New Munster: noon-6 pm Wed Feb 06 0.00
New Munster: 6 pm-midn Wed Feb 06 0.07
New Munster: midn-6 am Thu Feb 07 0.14
&&
LAT...LON 4262 8830 4262 8817 4255 8814 4246 8814
4245 8824 4255 8824
$$
WIC045-060438-
/O.EXT.KMKX.FL.W.0007.190206T1000Z-190209T1800Z/
/MTNW3.1.IC.190206T1000Z.190208T0600Z.190209T1200Z.NO/
1038 AM CST Tue Feb 5 2019
The Flood Warning continues for
The Pecatonica River At Martintown.
* At 8:00 AM Tuesday the stage was 12.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by early tomorrow and continue to
rise to near 14.2 feet by early Friday morning. The river will fall
below flood stage by Saturday morning.
* Impact...At 13.5 feet...Floodwaters affect Martintown Road and West
River Road in the Martintown area. Upstream in Browntown,
floodwaters affect highway MM and West Indies Road.
&&
River forecasts are available for some but not all river gaging
locations. The 7 day river forecast takes into account past
precipitation, soil moisture conditions, and predicted
precipitation for the basin. Precipitation is for the next 24 hours
in the future from April through September and for 48 hours in the
future from October through March.
(stages in ft.) Bank- Latest Forecast stages
- Flood full observed ...for 6 pm...
Location stage stage stage/time Tue Wed Thu Fri
Martintown 13.5 9.5 12.07 08 AM 02/05 12.9 13.7 14.1 14.0
- Highest 24 hour change
- observed in river stage
- stage in (ft.) up to Highest stage
- the last latest observed forecast in
- 7 days stage next 7 days
Martintown 12.08 08 AM 02/05 2.06 14.20 12 AM 02/08
Below is the latest predicted precipitation information in 6 hour
increments for the listed sites. This information is updated twice
daily - in the morning and evening. Precipitation prediction is for
48 hours into the future from October through March and for 24
hours into the future from April through September.
Martintown: 6 am-noon Tue Feb 05 0.00
Martintown: noon-6 pm Tue Feb 05 0.06
Martintown: 6 pm-midn Tue Feb 05 0.13
Martintown: midn-6 am Wed Feb 06 0.02
Martintown: 6 am-noon Wed Feb 06 0.00
Martintown: noon-6 pm Wed Feb 06 0.00
Martintown: 6 pm-midn Wed Feb 06 0.09
Martintown: midn-6 am Thu Feb 07 0.13
&&
LAT...LON 4272 8992 4272 8984 4263 8980 4251 8970
4251 8988 4260 8993
$$235
WGUS83 KMKX 060238
FLSMKX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
838 PM CST Tue Feb 5 2019
...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following river in
Wisconsin...
East Branch of the Pecatonica River Near
Blanchardville
&&
WIC065-060308-
/O.CAN.KMKX.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-190206T1312Z/
/BCHW3.1.IC.190205T0730Z.190205T1600Z.190205T2322Z.NO/
838 PM CST Tue Feb 5 2019
The Flood Warning is cancelled for
The East Branch Pecatonica River Near Blanchardville.
* At 7 PM Tuesday the stage was 10.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* The river fell below flood stage at 5:30 PM Tuesday.
* Forecast...The river is forecast to fall to near 8 feet by
Wednesday night.
&&
River forecasts are available for some but not all river gaging
locations. The 7 day river forecast takes into account past
precipitation, soil moisture conditions, and predicted
precipitation for the basin. Precipitation is for the next 24 hours
in the future from April through September and for 48 hours in the
future from October through March.
(stages in ft.) Bank- Latest Forecast stages
- Flood full observed ...for 6 pm...
Location stage stage stage/time Wed Thu Fri Sat
Blanchardville 11.0 9.0 10.79 7 PM 2/5 8.3 7.6 7.5 7.4
- Highest 24 hour change
- observed in river stage
- stage in (ft.) up to Highest stage
- the last latest observed forecast in
- 7 days stage next 7 days
Blanchardville 11.28 10 AM 2/5 0.57 10.40 12 AM 2/6
Below is predicted precipitation information in 6 hour increments
for the listed sites. This information is updated twice daily-morning
and evening. Precipitation prediction is for 48 hours into the future
from October through March and for 24 hours into the future from
April through September.
Blanchardville: 6 pm-midn Tue Feb 05 0.07
Blanchardville: midn-6 am Wed Feb 06 0.00
Blanchardville: 6 am-noon Wed Feb 06 0.00
Blanchardville: noon-6 pm Wed Feb 06 0.00
Blanchardville: 6 pm-midn Wed Feb 06 0.09
Blanchardville: midn-6 am Thu Feb 07 0.08
Blanchardville: 6 am-noon Thu Feb 07 0.14
Blanchardville: noon-6 pm Thu Feb 07 0.15
&&
LAT...LON 4283 8992 4284 8984 4279 8981 4272 8984 4272 8991 4279 8991
$$What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Milwaukee, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Feb 4, 3:01 PM CST, 1 hour 12 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Feb 4, 3:01 PM CST, 1 hour 12 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
301 PM CST Mon Feb 4 2019
.SHORT TERM...
Tonight and Tuesday...Forecast confidence is medium.
The main challenge tonight into Tuesday will be cloud trends.
Latest satellite imagery is starting to look encouraging with
thinning and holes showing up on the western edge of the cloud
shield. We'll continue to bring in some clearing for tonight. Of
course, clouds/lack of clouds will make the temp forecast tricky.
We should have enough gradient flow to keep things stirred up, so
feel pretty confident in the teens for mins tonight.
Warm advection kicks in on Tuesday ahead of a mid level wave
approaching. We should stay dry through most of the day. The only
exception is west of Madison after about 4 pm when the next round
of a wintry mix begins to push in.
Tuesday night...Forecast confidence is medium.
A winter weather advisory will be issued for Tuesday night.
There's good upper jet coupling with the mid level wave moving in
and helps to explain the degree of moisture/precip being pulled
north into Wisconsin, despite the rather weak surface trough
passing to our south. The omega and isentropic lift is decent. The
soundings show some initial ice in the dendrite zone late Tuesday
aftn and very early in the evening, so we could get a little snow
on the leading edge. But, the GFS and the NAM show a loss of ice
quickly, with a rather deep cold layer. That cold layer is a good
2-5kft deep (deeper north, shallower south). The nose of warmer
air could reach a peak of 5C down by Kenosha and less than 1C in
our northern counties. The lack of ice in the DGZ, the deep cold
layer and impressive warm layer will result in a wide mix of
wintry precip. The deep cold layer should result in more sleet
than freezing rain. Took a stab at those details, but expect
adjustments going forward. The best chance for ice accumulation
will be east and south of Madison, especially down by
Racine/Kenosha.
.LONG TERM...
Wednesday and Thursday...Forecast confidence is medium:
Another low pressure system will approach the area Wednesday,
moving through Wednesday night into Thursday. The exact track and
thermal profile of this system will have a big impact on
precipitation type across southern Wisconsin. There does look like
there will be an area of rain within the warm sector of the low
and an area of deformation snow to the northwest. There is a
significant warm layer aloft that will override a shallow near
surface cold layer in between the rain and snow. Confidence is
increasing that there will be another round of freezing rain and
sleet with this system, with a blend of models suggesting the
higher icing amounts could be across the forecast area. Right now,
the best chance for freezing rain would be across the northwest
2/3 of the forecast area. That being said, there is a fair amount
of uncertainty with the finer details of this system, so keep up
with the latest forecast as future changes are likely.
Friday and Saturday...Forecast confidence is high:
Strong high pressure behind the departing low will bring dry and
colder conditions back to southern Wisconsin for Friday and
Saturday. Highs may struggle to reach 10 Friday...but will recover
towards 20 Saturday. Breezy winds Friday will likely result in
subzero wind chills through the day.
Sunday and Monday...Forecast confidence is low to medium:
Models are still showing another low to move through early next
week. Confidence isn't high with the timing/track of the low
though at this time. Overall though, there does look like there
could be some accumulating snowfall at some point Sunday and/or
Monday. Temps should recover a bit more for this period...climbing
back toward normal values.
&&
.AVIATION(21Z TAFS)...
IFR CIGS will gradually lift to MVFR levels this evening with
clouds eventually scattering out later this evening. Any
lingering fog this afternoon will be gone by 22z as brisk west
winds arrive in the wake of the passing cold front. Once the
clouds scatter out this evening, expect VFR conditions through the
remainder of the TAF period.
We do expect a period of freezing rain and sleet to push quickly
across southern Wisconsin Tuesday evening. This will likely have
an impact on airport operations. Air temperatures will be in the
20s with the potential of freezing rain. A winter weather advisory
will be issued for Tuesday night.
&&
.MARINE...
Low pressure will continue to track off to the northeast tonight.
Look for brisk west winds this evening veering to the northwest
overnight as strong high pressure pushes in from Canada. The high
will slide to the east while low pressure slowly organizes to the
south of Lake Michigan. This will put the western Great Lakes
under a rather persistent northeast to east from from Tuesday
through Wednesday night.
Eventually, a deepening low pressure system will track from
Illinois into Lower Michigan on Thursday causing winds to back to
the north then northwest as it passes by. Strong and gusty west to
northwest winds will return for Thursday night into Friday night.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Tuesday to 6 AM CST Wednesday
for WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072.
LM...None.
&&
Tonight through Tuesday night and Aviation/Marine...Davis
Wednesday through Monday...DDVHazardous weather outlook, Feb 4, 3:13 PM CST, 1 hour before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 313 PM CST Mon Feb 4 2019 WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-052115- Marquette-Green Lake-Fond Du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge- Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee- Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha- 313 PM CST Mon Feb 4 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin. .DAY ONE...Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Monday A pair of low pressure systems will likely bring snow and freezing rain to southern Wisconsin this week. The first will occur Tuesday evening and overnight, with light snow and ice accumulations expected. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for this first round. The second occurrence would be from Wednesday evening into Thursday evening, with more snow and ice accumulations likely. The risk for ice jams and possible localized river flooding will continue this week. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. LMZ643>646-052115- Sheboygan to Port Washington WI- Port Washington to North Point Light WI- North Point Light to Wind Point WI- Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL- 313 PM CST Mon Feb 4 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters from Sheboygan Wisconsin to Winthrop Harbor Illinois. .DAY ONE...Tonight A few westerly gusts to 25 knots will be possible into this evening following the passage of a cold front. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Monday A Small Craft Advisory may be needed for brisk winds and high waves later Thursday into Friday evening as low pressure tracks across or just south of the Great Lakes region. LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868- 870-872-874-876-878-052115- Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to mid-line of lake.- Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South Fox Island 5NM offshore- Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to mid lake- Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM offshore to mid lake- Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid lake- Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- 313 PM CST Mon Feb 4 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the open waters of Lake Michigan. .DAY ONE...Tonight Some fog may linger across the open waters through late afternoon, with improving conditions into the evening behind a departing cold front. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Monday Brisk winds and high waves will likely occur for later Thursday through Friday as low pressure tracks across or just south of the Great Lakes region. Wind gusts could approach gale force. Heavy freezing spray may also occur Thursday night into Friday night. DDV www.weather.gov/mkx
The office that day
Everything else NWS Milwaukee, WI issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2:53 PM CST | Winter Weather Advisory | MKX | Columbia, Dane, Dodge, Fond du Lac, Green, Green Lake and 14 more | 42 hr |
Nearby
River Flood Warnings in Wisconsin, 2019Every river flood warning in 2019
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.