Alert archive / Wisconsin / River Flood Warnings in 2019

River Flood Warning 4, NWS Milwaukee, WI

January 26, 2019Rock County, Wisconsin; Winnebago County, Illinois

NWS Milwaukee, WI issued this river flood warning at Jan 26, 2019, 5:51 AM CST for Rock County, Wisconsin; Winnebago County, Illinois. It took effect at Jan 26, 2019, 7:04 AM CST. It was in force for 4 days.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jan 26, 2019, 5:51 AM CST (11:51 UTC)
In effect from
Jan 26, 2019, 7:04 AM CST
Expired
Jan 30, 2019, 10:37 AM CST
In force
4 days
Issued by
NWS Milwaukee, WI
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
Minor

Counties Winnebago County, IL, Rock County, WI

The radar

The Milwaukee radar (KMKX), 56 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 11:54 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Rock River at Afton (AFTW3). The gauge peaked at 9.86 ft at Jan 26, 2019, 1:00 PM CST.

actionminormoderate68101201/2601/2701/28
Action stage
8 ft
Minor stage
9 ft
Moderate stage
11.1 ft
Major stage
12.2 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 05430500, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted.

363 
WGUS43 KMKX 261151
FLWMKX


Flood Warning
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
551 AM CST Sat Jan 26 2019

...The National Weather Service in Milwaukee/Sullivan has issued a 
flood warning for the following rivers in Illinois...Wisconsin...

  Rock River At Afton affecting Winnebago and Rock Counties

&& 
ILC201-WIC105-262350-
/O.NEW.KMKX.FL.W.0004.190126T1636Z-190128T0117Z/
/AFTW3.1.IC.190126T1636Z.190127T0600Z.190127T1917Z.NO/
551 AM CST Sat Jan 26 2019

The National Weather Service in Milwaukee/sullivan has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  The Rock River At Afton.
* At  4:00 AM Saturday the stage was 8.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Impact...At 9.1 feet...Floodwaters affect property of a home on 
  South Christian Road on the east side of the river in the Afton 
  area.  There is minor erosional flood damage to lowland and 
  agricultural land in the Afton and Janesville areas.

&&

River forecasts are available for some but not all river gaging
locations. The 7 day river forecast takes into account past
precipitation, soil moisture conditions, and predicted
precipitation for the basin. Precipitation is for the next 24 hours 
in the future from April through September and for 48 hours in the 
future from October through March.
 
(stages in ft.)        Bank-      Latest         Forecast stages
-               Flood  full      observed        ...for 6 pm...
Location        stage  stage    stage/time      Sun  Mon  Tue  Wed
Afton            9.0   8.0   8.66 04 AM 01/26   9.2  8.9  8.6  8.6

-                   Highest      24 hour change
-                   observed     in river stage
-                   stage in      (ft.) up to      Highest stage
-                   the last    latest observed     forecast in
-                    7 days          stage          next 7 days
Afton            8.66 04 AM 01/26     1.40        9.23 12 AM 01/27

Below is predicted precipitation information in 6 hour increments
for the listed sites. This information is updated twice daily-morning
and evening. Precipitation prediction is for 48 hours into the future
from October through March and for 24 hours into the future from
April through September.

Afton: 6 pm-midn  Sat Jan 26  0.00
Afton: midn-6 am  Sun Jan 27  0.00
Afton: 6 am-noon  Sun Jan 27  0.00
Afton: noon-6 pm  Sun Jan 27  0.00
Afton: 6 pm-midn  Sun Jan 27  0.00
Afton: midn-6 am  Mon Jan 28  0.00
Afton: 6 am-noon  Mon Jan 28  0.00
Afton: noon-6 pm  Mon Jan 28  0.00
&&

LAT...LON 4274 8910 4274 8903 4265 8899 4247 8902
      4248 8910 4261 8909             

$$
15 follow-up statements
178 
WGUS83 KMKX 261240
FLSMKX


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
640 AM CST Sat Jan 26 2019

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Illinois...Wisconsin...
 
  Rock River At Afton affecting Winnebago and Rock Counties 
 
&& 
ILC201-WIC105-270040-
/O.EXT.KMKX.FL.W.0004.190126T1304Z-190127T1800Z/
/AFTW3.1.IC.190126T1304Z.190126T1800Z.190127T1200Z.NO/
640 AM CST Sat Jan 26 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Rock River At Afton.
* At  5:00 AM Saturday the stage was 8.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by this morning and continue to 
  rise to near 9.5 feet by this afternoon. The river will fall below 
  flood stage by tomorrow morning.
* Impact...At 9.1 feet...Floodwaters affect property of a home on 
  South Christian Road on the east side of the river in the Afton 
  area.  There is minor erosional flood damage to lowland and 
  agricultural land in the Afton and Janesville areas.

&& 

River forecasts are available for some but not all river gaging
locations. The 7 day river forecast takes into account past
precipitation, soil moisture conditions, and predicted
precipitation for the basin. Precipitation is for the next 24 hours 
in the future from April through September and for 48 hours in the 
future from October through March.
 
(stages in ft.)        Bank-      Latest         Forecast stages
-               Flood  full      observed        ...for 6 pm...
Location        stage  stage    stage/time     Sat  Sun  Mon  Tue
Afton            9.0   8.0   8.79 05 AM 01/26   9.3  8.8  8.6  8.5

-                   Highest      24 hour change
-                   observed     in river stage
-                   stage in      (ft.) up to      Highest stage
-                   the last    latest observed     forecast in
-                    7 days          stage          next 7 days
Afton            8.79 05 AM 01/26     1.48        9.50 12 PM 01/26

Below is the latest predicted precipitation information in 6 hour
increments for the listed sites. This information is updated twice
daily - in the morning and evening. Precipitation prediction is for
48 hours into the future from October through March and for 24
hours into the future from April through September.

Afton: 6 am-noon  Sat Jan 26  0.00
Afton: noon-6 pm  Sat Jan 26  0.00
Afton: 6 pm-midn  Sat Jan 26  0.00
Afton: midn-6 am  Sun Jan 27  0.00
Afton: 6 am-noon  Sun Jan 27  0.00
Afton: noon-6 pm  Sun Jan 27  0.00
Afton: 6 pm-midn  Sun Jan 27  0.14
Afton: midn-6 am  Mon Jan 28  0.29
&&

LAT...LON 4274 8910 4274 8903 4265 8899 4247 8902
      4248 8910 4261 8909             

$$
932 
WGUS83 KMKX 261656
FLSMKX


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1056 AM CST Sat Jan 26 2019

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Illinois...Wisconsin...
 
  Rock River At Afton affecting Winnebago and Rock Counties 
 

&& 
ILC201-WIC105-270455-
/O.EXT.KMKX.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-190128T0000Z/
/AFTW3.1.IC.190126T1230Z.190126T1800Z.190127T1800Z.NO/
1056 AM CST Sat Jan 26 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Rock River At Afton.
* At  9:00 AM Saturday the stage was 9.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising and crest near 9.5 feet this 
  afternoon. The river will then fall below flood stage tomorrow 
  afternoon.
* Impact...At 9.1 feet...Floodwaters affect property of a home on 
  South Christian Road on the east side of the river in the Afton 
  area.  There is minor erosional flood damage to lowland and 
  agricultural land in the Afton and Janesville areas.

&& 

River forecasts are available for some but not all river gaging
locations. The 7 day river forecast takes into account past
precipitation, soil moisture conditions, and predicted
precipitation for the basin. Precipitation is for the next 24 hours 
in the future from April through September and for 48 hours in the 
future from October through March.
 
(stages in ft.)        Bank-      Latest         Forecast stages
-               Flood  full      observed        ...for 6 pm...
Location        stage  stage    stage/time     Sat  Sun  Mon  Tue
Afton            9.0   8.0   9.28 09 AM 01/26   9.3  8.9  8.6  8.5

-                   Highest      24 hour change
-                   observed     in river stage
-                   stage in      (ft.) up to      Highest stage
-                   the last    latest observed     forecast in
-                    7 days          stage          next 7 days
Afton            9.28 09 AM 01/26     1.79        9.50 12 PM 01/26

Below is the latest predicted precipitation information in 6 hour
increments for the listed sites. This information is updated twice
daily - in the morning and evening. Precipitation prediction is for
48 hours into the future from October through March and for 24
hours into the future from April through September.

Afton: 6 am-noon  Sat Jan 26  0.00
Afton: noon-6 pm  Sat Jan 26  0.00
Afton: 6 pm-midn  Sat Jan 26  0.00
Afton: midn-6 am  Sun Jan 27  0.00
Afton: 6 am-noon  Sun Jan 27  0.00
Afton: noon-6 pm  Sun Jan 27  0.00
Afton: 6 pm-midn  Sun Jan 27  0.14
Afton: midn-6 am  Mon Jan 28  0.29
&&

LAT...LON 4274 8910 4274 8903 4265 8899 4247 8902
      4248 8910 4261 8909             

$$
208 
WGUS83 KMKX 270143
FLSMKX


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
742 PM CST Sat Jan 26 2019

...The Flood Warning continues for the following river in Wisconsin...


  Rock River at
    Afton 
 

&& 
ILC201-WIC105-271342-
/O.EXT.KMKX.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/AFTW3.1.IC.190126T1230Z.190126T2045Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
742 PM CST Sat Jan 26 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Rock River At Afton.
* At 6 PM Saturday the stage was 9.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is forecast to slowly fall through the next
  7 days but remain above flood stage. An ice jam downstream of the
  gauge is causing the high water level.  Rapid fluctuations are
  possible until the ice jam releases.
* Impact...At 10.1 feet...Floodwaters affect the property of a home 
  on South Christian Road on the east side of the river in the Afton 
  area. Minor erosional flood damage occurs to lowland and agricultural
  land adjacent to the river the Afton and Janesville areas.

&&

River forecasts are available for some but not all river gaging
locations. The 7 day river forecast takes into account past
precipitation, soil moisture conditions, and predicted
precipitation for the basin. Precipitation is for the next 24 hours 
in the future from April through September and for 48 hours in the 
future from October through March.
 
(stages in ft.)        Bank-      Latest         Forecast stages
-               Flood  full      observed        ...for 6 pm...
Location        stage  stage    stage/time      Sun  Mon  Tue  Wed

Afton            9.0   8.0    9.76 6 PM 1/26    9.6  9.5  9.4  9.4

-                   Highest      24 hour change
-                   observed     in river stage
-                   stage in      (ft.) up to      Highest stage
-                   the last    latest observed     forecast in
-                    7 days          stage          next 7 days

Afton            9.88 3 PM 1/26      1.82         9.70 12 AM 1/27

Below is predicted precipitation information in 6 hour increments
for the listed sites. This information is updated twice daily-morning
and evening. Precipitation prediction is for 48 hours into the future
from October through March and for 24 hours into the future from
April through September.

Afton: 6 pm-midn  Sat Jan 26  0.00
Afton: midn-6 am  Sun Jan 27  0.00
Afton: 6 am-noon  Sun Jan 27  0.00
Afton: noon-6 pm  Sun Jan 27  0.00
Afton: 6 pm-midn  Sun Jan 27  0.16
Afton: midn-6 am  Mon Jan 28  0.37
Afton: 6 am-noon  Mon Jan 28  0.07
Afton: noon-6 pm  Mon Jan 28  0.00
&&

LAT...LON 4274 8910 4274 8903 4265 8899 4247 8902 4248 8910 4261 8909             

$$
318 
WGUS83 KMKX 271049
FLSMKX


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
449 AM CST Sun Jan 27 2019

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Illinois...Wisconsin...
  Rock River At Afton affecting Winnebago and Rock Counties 
 
&& 
ILC201-WIC105-272249-
/O.CON.KMKX.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/AFTW3.1.IC.190126T1230Z.190126T2045Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
449 AM CST Sun Jan 27 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Rock River At Afton.
* At  3:00 AM Sunday the stage was 9.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 9.6 feet by this 
  morning. Additional rises may be possible thereafter.
* Impact...At 10.1 feet...Floodwaters affect the property of a home 
  on South Christian Road on the east side of the river in the Afton 
  area. Minor erosional flood damage occurs to lowland and 
  agricultural land adjacent to the river the Afton and Janesville 
  areas. This level is the 20 percent chance flood meaning that there
  is a 20 percent chance in any given year of the river reaching this
  level. 

&& 

River forecasts are available for some but not all river gaging
locations. The 7 day river forecast takes into account past
precipitation, soil moisture conditions, and predicted
precipitation for the basin. Precipitation is for the next 24 hours 
in the future from April through September and for 48 hours in the 
future from October through March.
 
(stages in ft.)        Bank-      Latest         Forecast stages
-               Flood  full      observed        ...for 6 pm...
Location        stage  stage    stage/time     Sun  Mon  Tue  Wed
Afton            9.0   8.0   9.51 03 AM 01/27   9.4  9.5  9.4  9.4

-                   Highest      24 hour change
-                   observed     in river stage
-                   stage in      (ft.) up to      Highest stage
-                   the last    latest observed     forecast in
-                    7 days          stage          next 7 days
Afton            9.88 03 PM 01/26     0.96        9.60 06 AM 01/27

Below is the latest predicted precipitation information in 6 hour
increments for the listed sites. This information is updated twice
daily - in the morning and evening. Precipitation prediction is for
48 hours into the future from October through March and for 24
hours into the future from April through September.

Afton: 6 am-noon  Sun Jan 27  0.00
Afton: noon-6 pm  Sun Jan 27  0.00
Afton: 6 pm-midn  Sun Jan 27  0.16
Afton: midn-6 am  Mon Jan 28  0.37
Afton: 6 am-noon  Mon Jan 28  0.07
Afton: noon-6 pm  Mon Jan 28  0.00
Afton: 6 pm-midn  Mon Jan 28  0.00
Afton: midn-6 am  Tue Jan 29  0.00
&&

LAT...LON 4274 8910 4274 8903 4265 8899 4247 8902
      4248 8910 4261 8909             

$$
022 
WGUS83 KMKX 271600
FLSMKX


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1000 AM CST Sun Jan 27 2019

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Illinois...Wisconsin...
 
  Rock River At Afton affecting Winnebago and Rock Counties 
 

&& 
ILC201-WIC105-280400-
/O.EXT.KMKX.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-190203T0000Z/
/AFTW3.1.IC.190126T1230Z.190126T2045Z.190202T1800Z.NO/
1000 AM CST Sun Jan 27 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Rock River At Afton.
* At  7:00 AM Sunday the stage was 9.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
  There is a suspected freeze up jam. Historical events have shifts of
  2 to 3 feet from the current levels. Stages could fluctuate rapidly
  and may go higher than forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  Saturday early afternoon.
* Impact...At 9.1 feet...Floodwaters affect property of a home on 
  South Christian Road on the east side of the river in the Afton 
  area.  There is minor erosional flood damage to lowland and 
  agricultural land in the Afton and Janesville areas.

&& 

River forecasts are available for some but not all river gaging
locations. The 7 day river forecast takes into account past
precipitation, soil moisture conditions, and predicted
precipitation for the basin. Precipitation is for the next 24 hours 
in the future from April through September and for 48 hours in the 
future from October through March.
 
(stages in ft.)        Bank-      Latest         Forecast stages
-               Flood  full      observed        ...for 6 pm...
Location        stage  stage    stage/time     Sun  Mon  Tue  Wed
Afton            9.0   8.0   9.41 07 AM 01/27   9.3  9.2  9.1  9.1

-                   Highest      24 hour change
-                   observed     in river stage
-                   stage in      (ft.) up to      Highest stage
-                   the last    latest observed     forecast in
-                    7 days          stage          next 7 days
Afton            9.88 03 PM 01/26     0.38        9.30 12 PM 01/27

Below is the latest predicted precipitation information in 6 hour
increments for the listed sites. This information is updated twice
daily - in the morning and evening. Precipitation prediction is for
48 hours into the future from October through March and for 24
hours into the future from April through September.

Afton: 6 am-noon  Sun Jan 27  0.00
Afton: noon-6 pm  Sun Jan 27  0.00
Afton: 6 pm-midn  Sun Jan 27  0.26
Afton: midn-6 am  Mon Jan 28  0.29
Afton: 6 am-noon  Mon Jan 28  0.05
Afton: noon-6 pm  Mon Jan 28  0.00
Afton: 6 pm-midn  Mon Jan 28  0.00
Afton: midn-6 am  Tue Jan 29  0.00
&&

LAT...LON 4274 8910 4274 8903 4265 8899 4247 8902
      4248 8910 4261 8909             

$$
050 
WGUS83 KMKX 280222
FLSMKX


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
822 PM CST Sun Jan 27 2019

...The Flood Warning continues for the following river in Wisconsin...


  Rock River at
    Afton 
 

&& 
ILC201-WIC105-281423-
/O.EXT.KMKX.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-190202T1200Z/
/AFTW3.1.IC.190126T1230Z.190126T2045Z.190202T0600Z.NO/
822 PM CST Sun Jan 27 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Rock River At Afton.
* At 7 PM Sunday the stage was 9.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is forecast to slowly fall to near flood
  stage by the end of the week. A suspected ice jam is responsible
  for the high water level.  Be prepared for rapid fluctuations in
  river levels until the ice jam releases.
* Impact...At 9.1 feet...Floodwaters affect property of a home on 
  South Christian Road on the east side of the river in the Afton 
  area.  There is minor erosional flood damage to lowland and 
  agricultural land in the Afton and Janesville areas.

&&

River forecasts are available for some but not all river gaging
locations. The 7 day river forecast takes into account past
precipitation, soil moisture conditions, and predicted
precipitation for the basin. Precipitation is for the next 24 hours 
in the future from April through September and for 48 hours in the 
future from October through March.
 
(stages in ft.)        Bank-      Latest         Forecast stages
-               Flood  full      observed        ...for 6 pm...
Location        stage  stage    stage/time      Mon  Tue  Wed  Thu

Afton            9.0   8.0    9.36 7 PM 1/27    9.3  9.3  9.2  9.1

-                   Highest      24 hour change
-                   observed     in river stage
-                   stage in      (ft.) up to      Highest stage
-                   the last    latest observed     forecast in
-                    7 days          stage          next 7 days

Afton           9.88 3 PM 1/26       -0.37        9.30 12 AM 1/28

Below is predicted precipitation information in 6 hour increments
for the listed sites. This information is updated twice daily-morning
and evening. Precipitation prediction is for 48 hours into the future
from October through March and for 24 hours into the future from
April through September.

Afton: 6 pm-midn  Sun Jan 27  0.12
Afton: midn-6 am  Mon Jan 28  0.43
Afton: 6 am-noon  Mon Jan 28  0.05
Afton: noon-6 pm  Mon Jan 28  0.00
Afton: 6 pm-midn  Mon Jan 28  0.00
Afton: midn-6 am  Tue Jan 29  0.00
Afton: 6 am-noon  Tue Jan 29  0.00
Afton: noon-6 pm  Tue Jan 29  0.00
&&

LAT...LON 4274 8910 4274 8903 4265 8899 4247 8902 4248 8910 4261 8909             

$$
416 
WGUS83 KMKX 281117
FLSMKX


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
517 AM CST Mon Jan 28 2019

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Illinois...Wisconsin...
  Rock River At Afton affecting Winnebago and Rock Counties 
 

&& 
ILC201-WIC105-282316-
/O.CON.KMKX.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-190202T1200Z/
/AFTW3.1.IC.190126T1230Z.190126T2045Z.190202T0600Z.NO/
517 AM CST Mon Jan 28 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Rock River At Afton.
* At  2:15 AM Monday the stage was 9.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast... The river should fall below flood stage by Saturday 
  but quick fluctuations due to ice jamming can quickly alter the 
  expectations of the river.
* Impact...At 9.1 feet...Floodwaters affect property of a home on 
  South Christian Road on the east side of the river in the Afton 
  area.  There is minor erosional flood damage to lowland and 
  agricultural land in the Afton and Janesville areas.

&& 

River forecasts are available for some but not all river gaging
locations. The 7 day river forecast takes into account past
precipitation, soil moisture conditions, and predicted
precipitation for the basin. Precipitation is for the next 24 hours 
in the future from April through September and for 48 hours in the 
future from October through March.
 
(stages in ft.)        Bank-      Latest         Forecast stages
-               Flood  full      observed        ...for 6 pm...
Location        stage  stage    stage/time     Mon  Tue  Wed  Thu
Afton            9.0   8.0   9.15 02 AM 01/28   9.3  9.3  9.2  9.1

-                   Highest      24 hour change
-                   observed     in river stage
-                   stage in      (ft.) up to      Highest stage
-                   the last    latest observed     forecast in
-                    7 days          stage          next 7 days
Afton            9.88 03 PM 01/26    -0.39        9.30 06 AM 01/28

Below is the latest predicted precipitation information in 6 hour
increments for the listed sites. This information is updated twice
daily - in the morning and evening. Precipitation prediction is for
48 hours into the future from October through March and for 24
hours into the future from April through September.

Afton: 6 am-noon  Mon Jan 28  0.05
Afton: noon-6 pm  Mon Jan 28  0.00
Afton: 6 pm-midn  Mon Jan 28  0.00
Afton: midn-6 am  Tue Jan 29  0.00
Afton: 6 am-noon  Tue Jan 29  0.00
Afton: noon-6 pm  Tue Jan 29  0.00
Afton: 6 pm-midn  Tue Jan 29  0.00
Afton: midn-6 am  Wed Jan 30  0.00
&&

LAT...LON 4274 8910 4274 8903 4265 8899 4247 8902
      4248 8910 4261 8909             

$$
672 
WGUS83 KMKX 281553
FLSMKX


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
953 AM CST Mon Jan 28 2019

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Illinois...Wisconsin...
  Rock River At Afton affecting Winnebago and Rock Counties 
 

&& 
ILC201-WIC105-290352-
/O.CON.KMKX.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-190202T1200Z/
/AFTW3.3.IC.190126T1230Z.190128T0845Z.190202T0600Z.NR/
953 AM CST Mon Jan 28 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Rock River At Afton.
* At  8:00 AM Monday the stage was 9.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Suspected freeze up jam. Hisotrical events show observed shifts of
  2-3 feet due to ice. Stages could fluctuate rapidly and may go higher
  than forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  early Saturday morning.
* Impact...At 9.1 feet...Floodwaters affect property of a home on 
  South Christian Road on the east side of the river in the Afton 
  area.  There is minor erosional flood damage to lowland and 
  agricultural land in the Afton and Janesville areas.

&& 

River forecasts are available for some but not all river gaging
locations. The 7 day river forecast takes into account past
precipitation, soil moisture conditions, and predicted
precipitation for the basin. Precipitation is for the next 24 hours 
in the future from April through September and for 48 hours in the 
future from October through March.
 
(stages in ft.)        Bank-      Latest         Forecast stages
-               Flood  full      observed        ...for 6 pm...
Location        stage  stage    stage/time     Mon  Tue  Wed  Thu
Afton            9.0   8.0   9.20 08 AM 01/28   9.2  9.2  9.2  9.1

-                   Highest      24 hour change
-                   observed     in river stage
-                   stage in      (ft.) up to      Highest stage
-                   the last    latest observed     forecast in
-                    7 days          stage          next 7 days
Afton            9.88 03 PM 01/26    -0.26        9.20 12 PM 01/28

Below is the latest predicted precipitation information in 6 hour
increments for the listed sites. This information is updated twice
daily - in the morning and evening. Precipitation prediction is for
48 hours into the future from October through March and for 24
hours into the future from April through September.

Afton: 6 am-noon  Mon Jan 28  0.07
Afton: noon-6 pm  Mon Jan 28  0.03
Afton: 6 pm-midn  Mon Jan 28  0.00
Afton: midn-6 am  Tue Jan 29  0.00
Afton: 6 am-noon  Tue Jan 29  0.00
Afton: noon-6 pm  Tue Jan 29  0.00
Afton: 6 pm-midn  Tue Jan 29  0.00
Afton: midn-6 am  Wed Jan 30  0.00
&&

LAT...LON 4274 8910 4274 8903 4265 8899 4247 8902
      4248 8910 4261 8909             

$$
595 
WGUS83 KMKX 290215
FLSMKX


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
815 PM CST Mon Jan 28 2019

...The Flood Warning continues for the following river in Wisconsin...


  Rock River at
    Afton 
 

&& 
ILC201-WIC105-291414-
/O.EXT.KMKX.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-190131T1800Z/
/AFTW3.3.IC.190126T1230Z.190128T0845Z.190131T1200Z.NR/
815 PM CST Mon Jan 28 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Rock River At Afton.
* At 6 PM Monday the stage was 9.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is forecast to remain nearly steady through
  Thursday. The high water levels are due to a suspected ice jam.  
  Rapid fluctuations are possible until the ice jam releases.
* Impact...At 9.1 feet...Floodwaters affect property of a home on 
  South Christian Road on the east side of the river in the Afton 
  area.  There is minor erosional flood damage to lowland and 
  agricultural land in the Afton and Janesville areas.

&&

River forecasts are available for some but not all river gaging
locations. The 7 day river forecast takes into account past
precipitation, soil moisture conditions, and predicted
precipitation for the basin. Precipitation is for the next 24 hours 
in the future from April through September and for 48 hours in the 
future from October through March.
 
(stages in ft.)        Bank-      Latest         Forecast stages
-               Flood  full      observed        ...for 6 pm...
Location        stage  stage    stage/time      Tue  Wed  Thu  Fri

Afton            9.0   8.0    9.01 6 PM 1/28    9.0  9.0  8.9  8.8

-                   Highest      24 hour change
-                   observed     in river stage
-                   stage in      (ft.) up to      Highest stage
-                   the last    latest observed     forecast in
-                    7 days          stage          next 7 days

Afton            9.88 3 PM 1/26      -0.31        9.00 12 AM 1/29

Below is predicted precipitation information in 6 hour increments
for the listed sites. This information is updated twice daily-morning
and evening. Precipitation prediction is for 48 hours into the future
from October through March and for 24 hours into the future from
April through September.

Afton: 6 pm-midn  Mon Jan 28  0.00
Afton: midn-6 am  Tue Jan 29  0.00
Afton: 6 am-noon  Tue Jan 29  0.00
Afton: noon-6 pm  Tue Jan 29  0.00
Afton: 6 pm-midn  Tue Jan 29  0.00
Afton: midn-6 am  Wed Jan 30  0.00
Afton: 6 am-noon  Wed Jan 30  0.00
Afton: noon-6 pm  Wed Jan 30  0.00
&&

LAT...LON 4274 8910 4274 8903 4265 8899 4247 8902 4248 8910 4261 8909             

$$
585 
WGUS83 KMKX 291120
FLSMKX


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
520 AM CST Tue Jan 29 2019

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Illinois...Wisconsin...
  Rock River At Afton affecting Winnebago and Rock Counties 
 

&& 
ILC201-WIC105-292320-
/O.CON.KMKX.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-190131T1800Z/
/AFTW3.3.IC.190126T1230Z.190128T0845Z.190131T1200Z.NR/
520 AM CST Tue Jan 29 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Rock River At Afton.
* At  6:15 PM Monday the stage was 9.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage this 
  morning but changes in ice damming can be quick so further rises 
  are possible.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet...Minor erosional flood damge occurs to 
  lowland and agricultural land adjacent to the river in the Afton 
  and Janesville areas.

&& 

River forecasts are available for some but not all river gaging
locations. The 7 day river forecast takes into account past
precipitation, soil moisture conditions, and predicted
precipitation for the basin. Precipitation is for the next 24 hours 
in the future from April through September and for 48 hours in the 
future from October through March.
 
(stages in ft.)        Bank-      Latest         Forecast stages
-               Flood  full      observed        ...for 6 pm...
Location        stage  stage    stage/time     Tue  Wed  Thu  Fri
Afton            9.0   8.0   8.99 06 PM 01/28   9.0  9.0  8.9  8.8

-                   Highest      24 hour change
-                   observed     in river stage
-                   stage in      (ft.) up to      Highest stage
-                   the last    latest observed     forecast in
-                    7 days          stage          next 7 days
Afton            9.88 03 PM 01/26    -0.32        9.00 06 AM 01/29

Below is the latest predicted precipitation information in 6 hour
increments for the listed sites. This information is updated twice
daily - in the morning and evening. Precipitation prediction is for
48 hours into the future from October through March and for 24
hours into the future from April through September.

Afton: 6 am-noon  Tue Jan 29  0.00
Afton: noon-6 pm  Tue Jan 29  0.00
Afton: 6 pm-midn  Tue Jan 29  0.00
Afton: midn-6 am  Wed Jan 30  0.00
Afton: 6 am-noon  Wed Jan 30  0.00
Afton: noon-6 pm  Wed Jan 30  0.00
Afton: 6 pm-midn  Wed Jan 30  0.00
Afton: midn-6 am  Thu Jan 31  0.00
&&

LAT...LON 4274 8910 4274 8903 4265 8899 4247 8902
      4248 8910 4261 8909             

$$
470 
WGUS83 KMKX 291622
FLSMKX


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1022 AM CST Tue Jan 29 2019

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Illinois...Wisconsin...
 
  Rock River At Afton affecting Winnebago and Rock Counties 
 

&& 
ILC201-WIC105-300421-
/O.EXT.KMKX.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-190131T1200Z/
/AFTW3.3.IC.190126T1230Z.190128T0845Z.190131T0600Z.NR/
1022 AM CST Tue Jan 29 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Rock River At Afton.
* At  6:15 PM Monday the stage was 9.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to remain near flood stage through Wednesday night then gradually fall.
* Impact...Impact...At 9.0 feet...Minor erosional flood damage occurs to 
  lowland and agricultural land adjacent to the river in the Afton 
  and Janesville areas.

&& 

River forecasts are available for some but not all river gaging
locations. The 7 day river forecast takes into account past
precipitation, soil moisture conditions, and predicted
precipitation for the basin. Precipitation is for the next 24 hours 
in the future from April through September and for 48 hours in the 
future from October through March.
 
(stages in ft.)        Bank-      Latest         Forecast stages
-               Flood  full      observed        ...for 6 pm...
Location        stage  stage    stage/time     Tue  Wed  Thu  Fri
Afton            9.0   8.0   8.99 06 PM 01/28   9.0  9.0  8.9  8.8

-                   Highest      24 hour change
-                   observed     in river stage
-                   stage in      (ft.) up to      Highest stage
-                   the last    latest observed     forecast in
-                    7 days          stage          next 7 days
Afton            9.88 03 PM 01/26    -0.32        9.00 12 PM 01/29

Below is the latest predicted precipitation information in 6 hour
increments for the listed sites. This information is updated twice
daily - in the morning and evening. Precipitation prediction is for
48 hours into the future from October through March and for 24
hours into the future from April through September.

Afton: 6 am-noon  Tue Jan 29  0.00
Afton: noon-6 pm  Tue Jan 29  0.00
Afton: 6 pm-midn  Tue Jan 29  0.00
Afton: midn-6 am  Wed Jan 30  0.00
Afton: 6 am-noon  Wed Jan 30  0.00
Afton: noon-6 pm  Wed Jan 30  0.00
Afton: 6 pm-midn  Wed Jan 30  0.00
Afton: midn-6 am  Thu Jan 31  0.00
&&

LAT...LON 4274 8910 4274 8903 4265 8899 4247 8902
      4248 8910 4261 8909             

$$
485 
WGUS83 KMKX 292326
FLSMKX


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
525 PM CST Tue Jan 29 2019

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Illinois...Wisconsin...
  Rock River At Afton affecting Winnebago and Rock Counties 
 

&& 
ILC201-WIC105-301125-
/O.CON.KMKX.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-190131T1200Z/
/AFTW3.3.IC.190126T1230Z.190128T0845Z.190131T0600Z.NR/
525 PM CST Tue Jan 29 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Rock River At Afton.
* At  6:15 PM Monday the stage was 9.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Forecast...Expect elevated stages due to ice jam. The gauge has frozen
  up and is reporting some inaccurate values at times.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet...Minor erosional flood damge occurs to 
  lowland and agricultural land adjacent to the river in the Afton 
  and Janesville areas.

&& 

River forecasts are available for some but not all river gaging
locations. The 7 day river forecast takes into account past
precipitation, soil moisture conditions, and predicted
precipitation for the basin. Precipitation is for the next 24 hours 
in the future from April through September and for 48 hours in the 
future from October through March.
 
(stages in ft.)        Bank-      Latest         Forecast stages
-               Flood  full      observed        ...for 6 pm...
Location        stage  stage    stage/time     Tue  Wed  Thu  Fri
Afton            9.0   8.0   8.99 06 PM 01/28   9.0  9.0  8.9  8.8

-                   Highest      24 hour change
-                   observed     in river stage
-                   stage in      (ft.) up to      Highest stage
-                   the last    latest observed     forecast in
-                    7 days          stage          next 7 days
Afton            9.88 03 PM 01/26    -0.32        9.00 06 PM 01/29

Below is the latest predicted precipitation information in 6 hour
increments for the listed sites. This information is updated twice
daily - in the morning and evening. Precipitation prediction is for
48 hours into the future from October through March and for 24
hours into the future from April through September.

Afton: 6 am-noon  Tue Jan 29  0.00
Afton: noon-6 pm  Tue Jan 29  0.00
Afton: 6 pm-midn  Tue Jan 29  0.00
Afton: midn-6 am  Wed Jan 30  0.00
Afton: 6 am-noon  Wed Jan 30  0.00
Afton: noon-6 pm  Wed Jan 30  0.00
Afton: 6 pm-midn  Wed Jan 30  0.00
Afton: midn-6 am  Thu Jan 31  0.00
&&

LAT...LON 4274 8910 4274 8903 4265 8899 4247 8902
      4248 8910 4261 8909             

$$
709 
WGUS83 KMKX 300157
FLSMKX


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
757 PM CST Tue Jan 29 2019

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Illinois...Wisconsin...
  Rock River At Afton affecting Winnebago and Rock Counties 
 

&& 
ILC201-WIC105-301356-
/O.CON.KMKX.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-190131T1200Z/
/AFTW3.3.IC.190126T1230Z.190128T0845Z.190131T0600Z.NR/
757 PM CST Tue Jan 29 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Rock River At Afton.
* At  6:15 PM Monday the stage was 9.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Forecast...Expect elevated stages due to ice jam. Gage appears to have
  frozen up and reporting inaccurate readings at times.
* Impact...At 13.3 feet...There is widespread flooding in the Afton 
  and Janesville areas. Numerous roads are closed including South 
  River Road on the south side of Janesville, Joseph and Charles 
  Streets and the on-ramp to Memorial Drive. The intersection of Wall
  Street and Main Street is closed. Traxler Park in Janesville is 
  flooded and closed. This level is the 1 percent chance flood 
  meaning there is a 1 percent chance of the river reaching this 
  level in any given year.

&&

River forecasts are available for some but not all river gaging
locations. The 7 day river forecast takes into account past
precipitation, soil moisture conditions, and predicted
precipitation for the basin. Precipitation is for the next 24 hours 
in the future from April through September and for 48 hours in the 
future from October through March.
 
(stages in ft.)        Bank-      Latest         Forecast stages
-               Flood  full      observed        ...for 6 pm...
Location        stage  stage    stage/time      Wed  Thu  Fri  Sat
Afton            9.0   8.0   8.99 06 PM 01/28   9.0  8.9  8.8  8.7

-                   Highest      24 hour change
-                   observed     in river stage
-                   stage in      (ft.) up to      Highest stage
-                   the last    latest observed     forecast in
-                    7 days          stage          next 7 days
Afton            9.88 03 PM 01/26    -0.32        9.00 12 AM 01/30

Below is predicted precipitation information in 6 hour increments
for the listed sites. This information is updated twice daily-morning
and evening. Precipitation prediction is for 48 hours into the future
from October through March and for 24 hours into the future from
April through September.

Afton: 6 pm-midn  Tue Jan 29  0.00
Afton: midn-6 am  Wed Jan 30  0.00
Afton: 6 am-noon  Wed Jan 30  0.00
Afton: noon-6 pm  Wed Jan 30  0.00
Afton: 6 pm-midn  Wed Jan 30  0.00
Afton: midn-6 am  Thu Jan 31  0.00
Afton: 6 am-noon  Thu Jan 31  0.00
Afton: noon-6 pm  Thu Jan 31  0.00
&&

LAT...LON 4274 8910 4274 8903 4265 8899 4247 8902
      4248 8910 4261 8909             

$$
164 
WGUS83 KMKX 301214
FLSMKX


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
614 AM CST Wed Jan 30 2019

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Illinois...Wisconsin...
  Rock River At Afton affecting Winnebago and Rock Counties 
 

&& 
ILC201-WIC105-310014-
/O.CON.KMKX.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-190131T1200Z/
/AFTW3.3.IC.190126T1230Z.190128T0845Z.190131T0600Z.NR/
614 AM CST Wed Jan 30 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Rock River At Afton.
* At  6:15 PM Monday the stage was 9.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage by this
  Friday but with ice dams river levels can rapidly change so it is 
  possible for further rises.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet...Minor erosional flood damge occurs to 
  lowland and agricultural land adjacent to the river in the Afton 
  and Janesville areas.

&& 

River forecasts are available for some but not all river gaging
locations. The 7 day river forecast takes into account past
precipitation, soil moisture conditions, and predicted
precipitation for the basin. Precipitation is for the next 24 hours 
in the future from April through September and for 48 hours in the 
future from October through March.
 
(stages in ft.)        Bank-      Latest         Forecast stages
-               Flood  full      observed        ...for 6 pm...
Location        stage  stage    stage/time     Wed  Thu  Fri  Sat
Afton            9.0   8.0   8.99 06 PM 01/28   9.0  8.9  8.8  8.7

-                   Highest      24 hour change
-                   observed     in river stage
-                   stage in      (ft.) up to      Highest stage
-                   the last    latest observed     forecast in
-                    7 days          stage          next 7 days
Afton            9.88 03 PM 01/26    -0.32        9.00 12 PM 01/30

Below is the latest predicted precipitation information in 6 hour
increments for the listed sites. This information is updated twice
daily - in the morning and evening. Precipitation prediction is for
48 hours into the future from October through March and for 24
hours into the future from April through September.

Afton: 6 am-noon  Wed Jan 30  0.00
Afton: noon-6 pm  Wed Jan 30  0.00
Afton: 6 pm-midn  Wed Jan 30  0.00
Afton: midn-6 am  Thu Jan 31  0.00
Afton: 6 am-noon  Thu Jan 31  0.00
Afton: noon-6 pm  Thu Jan 31  0.00
Afton: 6 pm-midn  Thu Jan 31  0.03
Afton: midn-6 am  Fri Feb 01  0.01
&&

LAT...LON 4274 8910 4274 8903 4265 8899 4247 8902
      4248 8910 4261 8909             

$$
938 
WGUS83 KMKX 301637
FLSMKX


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1037 AM CST Wed Jan 30 2019

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Illinois...Wisconsin...
 
  Rock River At Afton affecting Winnebago and Rock Counties
 

&& 
ILC201-WIC105-301707-
/O.CAN.KMKX.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-190131T1200Z/
/AFTW3.3.IC.190126T1230Z.190128T0845Z.190129T0007Z.NR/
1037 AM CST Wed Jan 30 2019

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Rock River At Afton.
* At  7:40 AM Wednesday the stage was 8.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Ice continues to impact the river gauge.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall into next week.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet...Minor erosional flood damage occurs to 
  lowland and agricultural land adjacent to the river in the Afton 
  and Janesville areas.

&& 

River forecasts are available for some but not all river gaging
locations. The 7 day river forecast takes into account past
precipitation, soil moisture conditions, and predicted
precipitation for the basin. Precipitation is for the next 24 hours 
in the future from April through September and for 48 hours in the 
future from October through March.
 
(stages in ft.)        Bank-      Latest         Forecast stages
-               Flood  full      observed        ...for 6 pm...
Location        stage  stage    stage/time     Wed  Thu  Fri  Sat
Afton            9.0   8.0   7.79 07 AM 01/30   8.8  8.7  8.6  8.5

-                   Highest      24 hour change
-                   observed     in river stage
-                   stage in      (ft.) up to      Highest stage
-                   the last    latest observed     forecast in
-                    7 days          stage          next 7 days
Afton            9.88 03 PM 01/26        M        8.80 12 PM 01/30

Below is the latest predicted precipitation information in 6 hour
increments for the listed sites. This information is updated twice
daily - in the morning and evening. Precipitation prediction is for
48 hours into the future from October through March and for 24
hours into the future from April through September.

Afton: 6 am-noon  Wed Jan 30  0.00
Afton: noon-6 pm  Wed Jan 30  0.00
Afton: 6 pm-midn  Wed Jan 30  0.00
Afton: midn-6 am  Thu Jan 31  0.00
Afton: 6 am-noon  Thu Jan 31  0.00
Afton: noon-6 pm  Thu Jan 31  0.00
Afton: 6 pm-midn  Thu Jan 31  0.05
Afton: midn-6 am  Fri Feb 01  0.00
&&

LAT...LON 4274 8910 4274 8903 4265 8899 4247 8902
      4248 8910 4261 8909             

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Milwaukee, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Jan 26, 5:43 AM CST, 8 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 26, 5:43 AM CST, 8 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
543 AM CST Sat Jan 26 2019

.UPDATE...

Arctic high bringing very cold temperatures in the teens below to
20s below zero to the area early this morning, with ideal
radiational cooling conditions. Madison has tied their record low
of 21 below zero, and it may go a degree or two lower. Not much
wind except close to Lake Michigan, so wind chill values are close
to air temperatures in most areas.

Given how cold it is out there, and any kind of wind will send
wind chills below 20 below zero, will maintain current Wind Chill
Advisory for Milwaukee and Waukesha Counties north to Fond du Lac
and Sheboygan Counties.

&&

.AVIATION(12Z TAFS)...

Light/calm winds and clear skies this morning will transition to
light southwest winds and increasing low clouds later this
afternoon into this evening. Ceilings may dip to between 2000 and
3000 feet later this afternoon and this evening.

May see light snow showers or flurries move through the region
this afternoon and evening. May see brief visibility reductions to
5 miles or so with the light snow showers. A dusting of snowfall
may occur near the Illinois border area. Winds will shift to the
northwest by later tonight.

&&

.MARINE...

Will allow the Heavy Freezing Spray Warning to expire for the
nearshore waters and for the south half of the open waters of Lake
Michigan at 6 AM CST. The Heavy Freezing Spray Warning will
continue until 6 PM CST Sunday for the north half of the open
waters of Lake Michigan.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 342 AM CST Sat Jan 26 2019)

DISCUSSION...

Today And Tonight...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Arctic high bringing very cold temperatures to the area early
this morning, with ideal radiational cooling conditions. Madison
has tied their record low of 21 below zero, and it may go a degree
or two lower. Not much wind except close to Lake Michigan, so wind
chill values are close to air temperatures.

Given how cold it is out there, and any kind of wind will send
wind chills below 20 below zero, will maintain current Wind Chill
Advisory for Milwaukee and Waukesha Counties north to Fond du Lac
and Sheboygan Counties.

The high will quickly move east of the region today, with a 500 mb
vorticity maximum moving southeast through the area this afternoon
and evening. There appears to be decent upward vertical motion
from differential cyclonic vorticity advection, as well as deep
enough moisture in the low levels. A somewhat deep dendrite growth
zone exists as well with the low level moisture. This should bring
chances for light snow showers across southwestern and southern
parts of the area. Added flurries across the rest of the area this
afternoon into this evening. May see a dusting of accumulation in
the far south and southwest areas.

Things will dry out by later tonight, with another high pressure
system moving southeast toward Lake Superior. Highs today will
only reach the 5 to 10 above zero range, with lows tonight in the
5 below to 9 below zero range inland. Wind chills should remain in
the single digits below zero today, and in the 15 below to 20
below zero range later tonight. Will hold off on another Wind
Chill Advisory for now.

Sunday...Forecast confidence is high.

Narrow high pressure will slide east across the area during the
day. We will start to get into the leading warm air advection
ahead of the approaching winter storm during the afternoon. It
will take a little time to saturate the column, but areas west of
Madison could see some light snow spread in during the late
afternoon.

Sunday night and Monday...Forecast confidence is high.

A Winter Storm Watch has been posted for this period.

A major winter storm is on track to hit southern Wisconsin. The
guidance remains in very good agreement with a slight shift north
(compared to previous days) with the surface low. The EC has a
more southern sfc low track, but focusing on the surface low
track can be misleading when dealing with an arctic airmass in
place. Models usually struggle with arctic airmasses. More
importantly, is the solid agreement with the h7/h5 low tracks.
This is where much of the meaningful forcing will be.

The warm air advection ahead of the low for Monday night is off
the charts. We'll see sfc temps rise through the night, with
temps getting up around 30 in the far southeast on Monday. This
WAA and associated frontogenesis will be a productive snow maker.
The column is deeply saturated with a large portion of that high
RH in or very close to the favorable dendrite growth zone.

As the WAA pushes east by sunrise Monday, we'll then get into the
forcing associated with potent mid level wave and upper
divergence for the morning hours. Things should begin to wind down
quickly from west to east Monday afternoon.

In general, this will be a dry snow. The exception may be across
the far southeast where temps rise to around 30F. Ratios in the
north on average will be about 18:1, while the southeast will be
about 13:1.

A southeast wind ahead of the low will bring some lake
enhancement to the accumulations. At this time, our highest snow
accumulations will be in the Sheboygan/Fond du Lac area
(9-12 in), lowest southwest of Madison (5-7 in).

Winds don't look to be a huge factor during the first half of the
storm, but as the low pushes east Monday afternoon, we'll get into
some strong and gusty north winds that will cause plenty of
drifting, along with some blowing snow/vsby reductions.

Tuesday through Friday...Forecast confidence is high.

The extended forecast is dry, but very cold.

Dangerous temperatures will overspread the region during this
period. That can't be overstated. Temperatures will be running 30
to 40 degrees below normal. For January, that's incredible. The
lowest temps will be Wednesday and Thursday morning with lows
dropping to 16-22 below zero. Wind chills will be 30-40 below. Low
temp records are quite cold during this stretch, so although it
will be brutally cold, we may not break a record.

Saturday...Forecast confidence is medium.

The GFS is a bit out of phase with the Canadian and ECMWF models.
The GFS is more progressive with the arctic high, putting us in a
warmer southwest flow on its backside for Friday night into
Saturday, while the other two models are about 24 hours slower.

AVIATION(09Z TAF UPDATES)...

Light/calm winds and clear skies this morning will transition to
light southwest winds and increasing low clouds later this
afternoon into this evening. Ceilings may dip to around 2000 feet
or a little lower this evening. May see light snow showers or
flurries move through the region this afternoon and evening. A
dusting of snowfall may occur near the Illinois border area. Winds
will shift to the northwest by later tonight.

MARINE...

Nearshore Waters...

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning continues until 6 AM CST this morning
across the nearshore waters. Winds should weaken enough by this
time to limit the risk for heavy freezing spray. May see more
heavy freezing spray tonight into Sunday morning, and at times
next week, with very cold temperatures remaining over the region.

Winds and waves will likely reach Small Craft Advisory levels
Sunday night into Monday night, with winds remaining gusty through
much of next week. Some gale force gusts are possible Sunday night
into Monday night.

Open Waters...

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning continues until 6 AM CST this morning
across the south half of Lake Michigan, and until 6 PM CST Sunday
across the north half. Winds should weaken enough by 6 AM CST to
limit the risk for heavy freezing spray in southern parts of the
lake. Winds should remain high enough to maintain the heavy
freezing spray risk over the north half of the lake into Sunday,
and perhaps into the rest of next week.

May see more heavy freezing spray tonight into Sunday morning
over the south half, and at times next week, with very cold
temperatures remaining over the region.

Winds and waves will increase Sunday night into Monday night,
with winds remaining gusty through much of next week. Some gale
force gusts are possible Sunday night into Monday night.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon
     for WIZ046-047-056-057-062-063-067>069.

     Winter Storm Watch from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon
     for WIZ051-052-058>060-064>066-070>072.

     Wind Chill Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for WIZ051-052-
     059-060-065-066.

LM...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 6 AM CST early this morning
     for LMZ080-643>646-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-
     878.

     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 6 PM CST Sunday for LMZ261-
     362-364-366-563-565-567-868.

&&

Update...Wood
Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...Wood
Sunday THROUGH Friday...Davis
Hazardous weather outlook, Jan 26, 4:07 AM CST, 1 hour 44 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
407 AM CST Sat Jan 26 2019

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-271015-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond Du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
407 AM CST Sat Jan 26 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Expect wind chills between 20-35 below zero this morning for
parts of east central and southeast Wisconsin...a wind chill
advisory is in effect until 10 am. Temperatures are bitterly cold
elsewhere with calm winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for all of southern Wisconsin
for Sunday night through Monday. Accumulations are expected to
range from 7 to 12 inches, highest north of Milwaukee, lower
southwest of Madison. Gusty winds will cause blowing and drifting
snow at times, especially in the wake of the storm Monday
afternoon and evening.

Extremely cold air will build into the area starting Monday night.
Wind chills are expected to be less than 35 degrees below zero at
times from Tuesday through Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time, but snow reports
are extremely helpful.

LMZ643>646-271015-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
407 AM CST Sat Jan 26 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters from
Sheboygan Wisconsin to Winthrop Harbor Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Freezing Spray is still possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Freezing spray will remain a concern through the coming week, as
very cold air moves through the region.

Strong onshore flow will result in high waves Sunday evening
through Monday evening. A prolonged period of gusty west to
northwest winds is then expected from Tuesday through most of the
remainder of the week. Expect small craft advisories to be issued.

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-271015-
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
407 AM CST Sat Jan 26 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the open waters of Lake
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

The combination of gusty winds and very cold temperatures will
result heavy freezing spray over the north half of the lake. A
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning is in effect there through Sunday
for the north half of Lake Michigan.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Winds may reach gale force late Sunday night through Wednesday
night.

Heavy freezing spray will remain a considerable concern through
the coming week, as very cold temperatures and gusty winds remain
in place across Lake Michigan.

www.weather.gov/mkx

The office that day

Everything else NWS Milwaukee, WI issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 26, 3:44 AM CSTWinter Storm WatchMKXColumbia, Dane, Dodge, Fond du Lac, Green, Green Lake and 14 more12 hr
Jan 26, 3:23 PM CSTWinter Storm WarningMKXColumbia, Dane, Dodge, Fond du Lac, Green, Green Lake and 14 more51 hr
Jan 26, 3:52 PM CSTWind Chill AdvisoryMKXColumbia, Dane, Dodge, Fond du Lac, Green, Green Lake and 14 more17 hr
Jan 26, 4:03 PM CSTGale WatchMKX12 hr

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Wisconsin, 2019River Flood Warnings in Illinois, 2019Every river flood warning in 2019

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.