River Flood Warning 36, NWS Milwaukee, WI

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
922 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2019

.UPDATE...

The rain and winds are winding down late this evening as the
surface low pressure tracks into northeast Wisconsin and the upper
low tracks across central Wisconsin.

&&

.MARINE...

Gusty southwest winds are continuing to diminish. Replaced the
Gale warning that was over the nearshore waters with a Small Craft
Advisory that runs all the way into Friday evening. Winds and
waves my drop below criteria for a short period of time later
tonight, but winds will quickly increase out of the northwest by
late Friday morning and remain elevated through the evening.

Northwest wind gusts might reach gale levels Friday afternoon and
evening, primarily over the south half of the lake. This is still
a marginal scenario so there is not enough confidence to issue a
gale warning at this time, but be alert for the possibility.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 539 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2019)

UPDATE...

The leading edge of the cold front is packing a punch late this
afternoon. Kenosha had a peak wind gust of 60 mph, and Racine had
47 mph. The highest winds are done now, but expect gusty winds to
persist through Friday afternoon as the surface low tracks from
central Wisconsin to Quebec.

Look for light rain showers to roll through southern WI this
evening as the upper low passes overhead.

We are continuing to get reports of flooded roads and even
downtown areas near rivers, streams, and overflowing ditches.
There is a Flood Warning for Fond du Lac where an ice jam is
causing flooding of an urban area. Green county reported numerous
roads closed outside of immediate river areas all across the
county, so there is a Flood warning in place there, as well. The
town of Lodi is experiencing major flooding due to Spring Creek
running above record level. The river Flood Warning is out for
this situation. Elsewhere, the Flood Watch covers the sporadic
reports of road closures. That remains in effect until morning.

AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...

Ceilings of 1000-3000 ft are moving into south central WI and
will gradually overspread all of srn WI toward evening. A period
of light rain will occur with the arrival of the lower Cigs
through the evening. The CIGS may fall even further into IFR
conditions during the overnight hours. Clouds will begin to push
out of the region during the afternoon Friday. Winds will be
breezy throughout the TAF period and will initially be from the
southwest. Winds will gradually turn to the west and then to the
northwest as the low moves through the region.

MARINE...

We will see gale force gusts over the nearshore waters through mid
evening before winds finally settle down in the wake of a cold
front. Thus, upgraded to a Gale Warning for the short term. The
cold water should create a stable enough layer at the water to
protect from frequent gale force gusts, but can't rule out a few.
The warm, moist air is still pumping into the north half of Lake
Michigan, so we extended the Marine Dense Fog Advisory until mid
evening. Drier air will move in later tonight to scour out the
fog.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 345 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2019)

SHORT TERM...
This Afternoon and Tonight....Forecast Confidence is High.

A line of showers and sct tstorms will exit central WI by late
afternoon. Gusty winds are still expected with the tstorms but
severe is unlikely. The occluded front is now moving into ern WI
with breezy swly winds. It appears the strong gradient wind gusts
will remain over IL. The passage of the upper low will then bring
several hours of light rain from west to east late this afternoon
into the early evening hours. Only slight chances of rain and
possibly snow late tnt. Temps will cool into the lower to middle
30s by sunrise Friday.

LONG TERM...
Friday...Forecast confidence high.

An upper trough will linger over the Great Lakes region with cooler
air on northwest flow moving in behind it. There is a small chance
of rain and snow showers during the first part of the day as a
shortwave will moves through. Any precipitation would be very light.
The atmosphere dries out as the day goes on. Winds will remain
elevated off the deck at 30 to 35 knots at 850mb. Soundings indicate
deep mixing so we'll be able to reach close to that with daytime
mixing so expect gusty northwest winds around 30 mph.

Saturday through Thursday...Forecast confidence high.

The upper trough clears by Saturday morning. Soundings dry out as
mid level riding moves in, expect for some moisture at cloud
level, indicating scattered clouds. Winds will be light northwest
winds as high pressure slides south of the state.

Another pair of shortwaves drop through on Sunday and Monday
bringing mainly clouds with a small chance for precipitation. High
pressure will be pushing through the plains and approaching WI so
that will limit the precipitation potential.

Another shortwave looks to drop through on Wednesday bringing
another chance for light precipitation. winds will be gusty as a
cold front moves through. Then a mid level ridge pushes in so the
later half of the weeks looks pretty dry and milder with highs in
the middle to upper 40s.

AVIATION(21Z TAFS)...
CIGS of 1-3 kft are moving into sw WI and will gradually
overspread all of srn WI toward evening. A period of light rain
will occur with the arrival of the lower Cigs through the evening.
The CIGS may fall even further into IFR conditions during the
overnight hours. Clouds will begin to push out of the region
during the afternoon Friday. Winds will be breezy throughout the
TAF period and will initially be from the southwest. Winds will
gradually turn to the west and then to the northwest as the low
moves through the region.

MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect until 03Z for breezy swly
winds and lingering high waves. Another Small Craft Advisory may
be needed on Friday for brisk west to northwest winds. Expect
northwest winds to gust around 25 knots Friday and Friday evening.
A few gusts to 30 knots are possible.

A Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect for the north half of Lake
MI but the fog will end when the winds shift to southwesterly by
early evening.

Over far srn Lake MI, breezy swly winds may reach gale force at
times this afternoon into the early evening. Gusts to 30 knots are
expected for the south half on Friday into Friday evening. winds
of about 20 knots or less are expected Sat afternoon through
Monday.

HYDROLOGY...
The Flood Watch remains in effect until 7 AM Friday morning across
the area, mainly from runoff from melting snow. Showers and
thunderstorms are exiting southern Wisconsin this afternoon and
little to no additional precipitation is expected.

The main concerns are river and low land flooding. This includes
streams and creeks. The main river basins to watch out for include
the Baraboo, Pecatonica, Sugar, Fox (north and south), and Rock.
Long term flooding, into next week, is looking likely on the slower
responding river basins, like the Rock and Fox. Thus, impacts from
river flooding are likely to remain well into next week.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Friday for WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-
     062>072.

LM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LMZ261-362-
     364-366-563-565-567-868.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT Friday for LMZ643>646.

     Gale Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for LMZ643>646.

&&

Update...Cronce
Tonight/Friday and Aviation/Marine...Gehring
Friday Night through Thursday...Marquardt

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
908 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2019

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-151100-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond Du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
908 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A Flood Watch is in effect for all of southern Wisconsin. The
recent rainfall, along with melting snow onto frozen ground has
resulted in flood warnings for many rivers. Localized urban and
lowland flooding will also continue.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Thursday

Many rivers are at minor flood stage and several have reached or
are forecast to reach moderate and even major flood stage. River
flooding will continue into next week. Localized urban and
lowland flooding is also a concern, especially if storm drains are
blocked due to ice and debris.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed, but any rainfall or
flooding reports are appreciated.

LMZ643>646-151100-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
908 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters from
Sheboygan Wisconsin to Winthrop Harbor Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for gusty southwest to west
winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Thursday

Brisk northwest winds will reach Small Craft Advisory levels
into Friday evening.

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-151100-
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
908 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the open waters of Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Breezy southwest to west winds are expected through the night.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Thursday

Brisk west to northwest winds are expected over Lake Michigan
Friday into Friday night. A few gale force gusts are possible.

MRC

www.weather.gov/mkx

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
524 PM CDT THU MAR 14 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0427 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 3 N PLEASANT PRAIRIE    42.60N 87.93W
03/14/2019  M60 MPH          KENOSHA            WI   ASOS

            ASOS STATION ENW, KENOSHA AIRPORT.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
757 PM CDT THU MAR 14 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NE KENOSHA            42.59N 87.81W
03/14/2019  M49 MPH          LMZ646             WI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION KNSW3, KENOSHA LAKESHORE.

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
758 PM CDT THU MAR 14 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0522 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 W CUDAHY              42.95N 87.90W
03/14/2019  M45 MPH          MILWAUKEE          WI   ASOS

            ASOS STATION MKE, MILWAUKEE-GEN MITCHELL
            ARPT.

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
759 PM CDT THU MAR 14 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0447 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 E RACINE              42.73N 87.74W
03/14/2019  M54 MPH          LMZ646             WI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION XRCN, 2 E RACINE.

&&

MRC