Gale Warning 47, NWS Milwaukee, WI

208 
WHUS73 KMKX 210307
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
907 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2019

...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...

.A strong low pressure system will track from the Central Plains
to central Wisconsin tonight through mid-day Thursday. The low 
will then track northeast of Lake Huron by late Thursday evening. 
Brisk southerly winds will arrive across the nearshore waters late
this evening with gale force winds expected over the open waters 
early Thursday morning and continuing into the early morning hours
on Friday. There may be a brief lull in the winds late Thursday 
afternoon as the low pressure trough moves overhead and winds veer
from southerly to northwest.

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-211200-
/O.CON.KMKX.GL.W.0047.191121T1000Z-191122T0900Z/
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
907 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2019

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 3 AM CST
FRIDAY...

* WINDS: South winds increasing to 30kts tonight with gales to 
  40kts on Thursday. Winds veering to the northwest gusting to 
  40kts Thursday night, diminishing late into Friday morning. 

* WAVES: Building to 4 to 7 feet, occasionally 9 feet tonight. 
  Then 8 to 12 feet, occasionally 16 feet on Thursday. The 
  highest waves will be found across the middle of the lake. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occuring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ643>646-211200-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0103.000000T0000Z-191122T1200Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
907 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY...

* WINDS: South winds increasing to 15 to 25 knots late this 
  evening, with gusts to 30kts by Thursday morning. Winds 
  veering to the northwest Thursday evening, diminishing late. 

* WAVES: Building to 5 to 7 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 21 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$


www.weather.gov/mkx

037 
WHUS73 KMKX 210915
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
315 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2019

...Strong South Winds Today Becoming Northwest Tonight...

.A strong low pressure system will track from north central Iowa
to north of Lake Huron today, before moving northeast of there
tonight. Southerly gale force winds are expected over the open 
waters today, before veering northwest and remaining strong this
evening and overnight. There may be a brief lull in the winds 
later this afternoon, as low pressure moves overhead and winds 
veer from south to northwest. High waves are expected today,
shifting to the eastern parts of Lake Michigan tonight.

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-211715-
/O.CON.KMKX.GL.W.0047.191121T1000Z-191122T0900Z/
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
315 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2019

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CST FRIDAY...

* WINDS: South gales to 40 knots this morning. South to southwest
  winds may weaken to 30 knots for a time this afternoon, before
  veering to northwest gales to 40 knots by early this evening. 
  Winds diminishing later tonight.
 
* WAVES: Building to 8 to 14 feet today, occasionally to 18 feet.
  The highest waves will be found across the middle of the lake. 
  Waves 7 to 10 feet, occasionally to 13 feet this evening, 
  subsiding to 5 to 8 feet, occasionally to 10 feet later tonight.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occuring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ643>646-211715-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0103.000000T0000Z-191122T1200Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
315 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY...

* WINDS: South winds 15 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots this
  morning. Winds veering to the northwest 15 to 25 knots with
  gusts to 30 knots by early this evening, diminishing late. 

* WAVES: Building to 5 to 9 feet today, highest toward Sheboygan.
  Waves subsiding to 3 to 5 feet this evening, and 1 to 3 feet 
  later tonight.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 21 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$
Wood
www.weather.gov/mkx

805 
WHUS73 KMKX 211511
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
911 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2019

...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST BY EVENING...

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-212315-
/O.CON.KMKX.GL.W.0047.000000T0000Z-191122T0900Z/
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
911 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2019

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CST FRIDAY...

* WINDS: South gales to 40 knots this morning. South to 
  southwest winds may weaken to 30 knots for a time this 
  afternoon, before veering to northwest gales to 40 knots by 
  early this evening. Winds diminishing later tonight. 

* WAVES: 8 to 14 feet today, occasionally to 18 feet. The highest
  waves will be found across the middle of the lake. Waves 7 to 
  10 feet, occasionally to 13 feet this evening, subsiding to 5 to
  8 feet, occasionally to 10 feet later tonight. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occuring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ643>646-212315-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0103.000000T0000Z-191122T1200Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
911 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY...

* WINDS: South winds 15 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots this 
  morning. Winds veering to the northwest 15 to 25 knots with 
  gusts to 30 knots by early this evening, diminishing late. 

* WAVES: 5 to 9 feet today, highest toward Sheboygan. Waves 
  subsiding to 3 to 5 feet this evening, and 1 to 3 feet later 
  tonight. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 21 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$
DDV

www.weather.gov/mkx

500 
WHUS73 KMKX 212115
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
Issued by National Weather Service Green Bay WI
315 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2019

...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...

LMZ669-671-673-675-220515-
/O.CON.KMKX.GL.W.0047.000000T0000Z-191122T0900Z/
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
315 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2019

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CST FRIDAY...

* WINDS: Northwest gales to 40 knots diminishing to 30 knots 
  late. 
 
* WAVES: 7 to 10 feet, occasionally to 13 feet this evening, 
  subsiding to 5 to 8 feet, occasionally to 10 feet later tonight.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ643>646-220515-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0103.000000T0000Z-191122T1200Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
315 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY...

* WINDS: Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots
  this evening, diminishing late.

* WAVES: 4 to 8 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 this evening, and 1 to 3
  feet late tonight.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

305 
WHUS73 KMKX 220313
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
913 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2019

...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT...

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-220900-
/O.CON.KMKX.GL.W.0047.000000T0000Z-191122T0900Z/
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
913 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2019

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CST FRIDAY...

* WINDS: Northwest winds to 30 knots with gale force gusts to 35
  knots diminishing to 15 to 25 knots overnight. 

* WAVES: 6 to 9 feet, occasionally to 12 feet subsiding to 5 to 8
  feet by early Friday morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occuring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ643>646-221115-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0103.000000T0000Z-191122T1200Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
913 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY...

* WINDS: Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots diminishing to 10 to 20
  knots late tonight.
  

* WAVES: 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$
MRC

www.weather.gov/mkx

368 
WHUS73 KMKX 220908
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
308 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2019

...Gusty Northwest Winds Gradually Diminishing Today...

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-221015-
/O.EXP.KMKX.GL.W.0047.000000T0000Z-191122T0900Z/
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
308 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2019

...GALE WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

The Gale Warning is no longer in effect. 

$$

LMZ643>646-221200-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0103.000000T0000Z-191122T1200Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
308 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY
THIS MORNING...

* WINDS: Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots early this morning, then 
  diminishing to 10 to 20 knots later this morning, and 5 to 15 
  knots this afternoon.

* WAVES: 2 to 4 feet this morning, then subsiding to 1 to 2 feet 
  this afternoon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$
Wood
www.weather.gov/mkx

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1202 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2019

.UPDATE...
The fog is slowly lifting across the region, though lower clouds
will likely remain through the day with some spots seeing a few
hours of clearer skies this afternoon before midlevel clouds push
in.

&&

.AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...
We expect LIFR CIGS/VSBYS to improve to the west over the next
hour or so with fog mostly dissipating/lifting. IFR CIGS are then
expected to continue for at least a few more hours, primarily to
the west. For eastern parts of the area there is actually some
clearing, however some IFR clouds are hanging around just to the
west, possibly causing areas to see some BKN IFR CIGS this
afternoon.

IFR CIGS will push out/dissipate by around the mid afternoon with
mid level CIGS filling in behind. VFR conditions are only expected
to last for a brief period during the late afternoon/early
evening before the next system begins to push in.

The mid to late evening will see increase in southerly winds as
well as low level winds shear around 2 kft from the southwest at
40-50 kts through much of the TAF period. Overnight we will also
see rain push in that will include some MVFR VSBYS and falling
CIGS with IFR CIGS expected for at least a period throughout
southern Wisconsin.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 933 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2019)

UPDATE...

The Dense Fog Advisory has been extended to 18z though we should start
to see the fog dissipate over the next few hours as the sun begins
to penetrate holes in the fog and as we see winds increase some
through the day. Still quite a bit of uncertainty on when the
dense fog will dissipate/lift

MARINE...

Very light winds expected to continue this morning with winds
slowly increasing from the south into this evening as a system
approaches from the west. Increasing winds from the southeast will
increase waves as well especially along the shoreline thus a Small
Craft Advisory is in effect beginning at 3z this evening. Winds
are then likely to reach Gales by 12z and possibly a bit earlier.
A Gale Watch is currently in effect but will need to be upgraded
later today to a Gale Warning.

AVIATION UPDATE...

Fog continues to linger to the west however we are beginning to
see some breaks which should allow for sun to start to eat into
the low clouds/fog. Further east we will see lower CIGS and some
reduced VSBYS continue for the next few hours before these push
out to the east.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 519 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2019)

UPDATE...

There are a few sites, mainly south and west of Madison, that
are showing some dense fog. Not seeing much in the way of dense
fog elsewhere over the advisory area early this morning, per
observations and web cameras. Think that low stratus field is
helping prevent visibility values from dropping. There may be
some more dense fog that develops around or soon after sunrise.
If things do not materialize by then, may end up canceling the
advisory.

AVIATION(12Z TAFS)...

Visibility values should generally be in the 1 to 3 mile range
over most of the area into the middle morning hours, with values
of 5 miles or greater near Lake Michigan. Some dense fog with 1/4
to 1/2 mile visibility values may occur at times south and west of
Madison until after sunrise. VFR visibility values will return by
midday over the area.

Low stratus clouds down to 500 feet or so should linger into the
middle morning hours across most of the area, with MVFR/VFR
ceilings possibly lingering near Lake Michigan. Ceilings should
gradually rise to MVFR then VFR during the late morning and early
afternoon. Light winds will become southeast by afternoon.

Low pressure moving northeast into the region will bring a round
of rain into the area, mainly later tonight into Thursday.
Ceilings and visibility values will drop into the IFR/LIFR range
during this period.

Gusty south winds will develop later tonight into Thursday,
becoming west/northwest behind the cold front by later Thursday
afternoon. Some low level wind shear is expected later tonight
into Thursday morning, with 2000 foot level winds southwest at 40
to 50 knots.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 310 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2019)

DISCUSSION...

Today...Forecast Confidence Is Moderate.

Not seeing much in the way of dense fog over the advisory area
early this morning, per observations and web cameras. Think
that low stratus field is helping prevent visibility values from
dropping more into the 1/2 to 1/4 mile range. There have been a
few sites, mainly south and west of Madison, that are/were
showing some dense fog.

After collaboration with neighboring offices, will continue the
Dense Fog Advisory until 15Z this morning. There may be some more
dense fog that develops around sunrise. If things do not
materialize by then or soon after, may end up canceling the
advisory.

The low stratus should linger this morning, before ceilings mix
upward this afternoon. Skies should remain cloudy today. Some warm
air advection develops over the area today as well. Highs are
expected to reach the middle 40s across the area, which is near
seasonal normals for highs.

Tonight And Thursday...Forecast Confidence Is High.

Models are in decent agreement with low pressure moving northeast
from the central Plains to north central/northeast Iowa tonight.
The low then shifts across southwest to east central Wisconsin
Thursday morning, into northern Lake Huron Thursday afternoon.

Southwesterly low level jet will bring plenty of deep column
moisture into the area by later tonight into Thursday morning,
with warm air advection continuing in the warm sector over the
area. Thus, look for a non-diurnal temperature trend for tonight
into Thursday morning, with temperatures rising from the upper
30s to the middle 40s tonight, and into the lower 50s Thursday
morning and midday.

The cold front will push through the area mainly in the
afternoon, with decent low level frontogenesis response. A decent
500 mb vorticity maximum will push through the area as well, with
differential CVA helping with upward vertical motion. Could see a
few claps of thunder with the cold frontal passage Thursday
afternoon, with very weak elevated CAPE on forecast soundings.
Continued with high PoPs for mainly later tonight into Thursday
morning. Thermal profiles will support all liquid precipitation
across the area.

Model certainty shows precipitation amounts in forecast are on the
high end of the model guidance, around the 90th percentile. WPC
QPF is close to this as well. Given the strength of this system
and the feed of moisture moving into the area, feel these rainfall
amounts are reasonable. May see rises in some area river stages
to near flood stage in the coming days from this round of rain.

Friday through Monday...Forecast confidence is high.

This will be a beneficial stretch of dry weather to drain off the
rain from tonight and Thursday. In addition, it's the start of the
big deer hunt across the state. The mid levels look somewhat
noisy with short waves moving through, but the atmosphere is dry
and should prevent any organized precip development. We should get
into a little sunshine on Friday, but it looks like a mix of
clouds and sun over the weekend. High temps will start out in the
mid 30s on Friday, modifying a few degrees each day into early
next week. Winds will also remain on the light side for this time
of year.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Forecast confidence very low.

The long range guidance continues to suggest an amplified and
impactful storm system moving into the region by late Tuesday into
Wednesday. This guidance had been in reasonable agreement...until
now. The 00z operational run of the ECMWF completely flipped and
looks 180 degrees out of phase with the GFS. The GFS shows a 985mb
low moving through Wisconsin Wednesday morning, while the ECMWF
shows ridging. Looking at the individual ensemble members of the
GFS and the ECMWF shows a huge spectrum of possible solutions. The
mean of the GFS ensemble has the low tracking south of Wisconsin.
Thus, confidence is low on any solution at this point.

AVIATION(09Z TAF UPDATES)...

Visibility values should generally be in the 1 to 3 mile range
over most of the area into the middle morning hours, with values
of 5 miles or greater near Lake Michigan. Some dense fog with 1/4
to 1/2 mile visibility values may occur at times south and west of
Madison until after sunrise. VFR visibility values will return by
midday over the area.

Low stratus clouds down to 500 feet or so should linger into the
middle morning hours across most of the area, with MVFR/VFR
ceilings possibly lingering near Lake Michigan. Ceilings should
gradually rise to MVFR then VFR during the late morning and early
afternoon. Light winds will become southeast by afternoon.

Low pressure moving northeast into the region will bring a round
of rain into the area, mainly later tonight into Thursday.
Ceilings and visibility values will drop into the IFR/LIFR range
during this period.

Gusty south winds will develop later tonight into Thursday,
becoming west/northwest behind the cold front by later Thursday
afternoon. Some low level wind shear is possible later tonight
into Thursday morning, with 2000 foot level winds southwest at 40
to 50 knots.

MARINE...

Light winds this morning will become moderate southerly winds
toward evening as a strong low pressure system organizes over the
Central Plains. South to southeast winds will increase rapidly
this evening with a small craft advisory going into effect at 9 pm
for the nearshore waters. The strong low will track across central
Wisconsin on Thursday. A gale watch has been posted for the open
waters of Lake Michigan beginning at 6 am Thursday and it will run
through 3 am Friday morning. There will be a brief lull in the
winds as the associated low pressure trough moves through the
area. However, the northwest winds on the back side of the
trough/low will likely increase to gale force levels by early
Thursday evening. The low exiting quickly to the northeast will
bring diminishing winds by sunrise Friday morning. High pressure
settling across the area will result in light winds across Lake
Michigan by Friday afternoon. West to southwest winds of light to
only moderate intensity will then persist into early next week.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for WIZ046-047-056>058-
     062>064-067>069.

LM...Gale Watch from Thursday morning through late Thursday night for
     LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-
     868-870-872-874-876-878.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Friday
     for LMZ643>646.

&&

Update...ARK
Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...ARK
Thursday THROUGH Tuesday...Davis

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1233 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2019

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-211100-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
1233 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Moderate to heavy rainfall tonight and Thursday will result in
rising rivers and streams. A few rivers and streams could reach
flood stage Friday and continue into the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed, but rainfall reports are
helpful.

LMZ643>646-211100-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
1233 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters from
Sheboygan Wisconsin to Winthrop Harbor Illinois.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A small craft advisory goes into effect at 9 pm this evening due
to increasing southerly winds and building waves.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

The small craft advisory will continue through early Friday
morning. A few southerly gale force gusts to 35 knots are
possible on Thursday. Winds will veer quickly to the northwest by
early Thursday evening, then diminish by sunrise on Friday.

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-211100-
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
1233 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the open waters of Lake
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

A Gale Watch is in effect Thursday through early Friday morning
due to strong southerly winds Thursday veering to the northwest
early Thursday evening. Gales to 40kts are possible.

MRC

www.weather.gov/mkx