Gale Warning 37, NWS Milwaukee, WI

082 
WHUS73 KMKX 270210
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
910 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2019

...Strong South Winds Expected Late Tonight Into Friday...

.South gales of 35 to 40 knots are possible late tonight into
Friday across the open waters of Lake Michigan. This will bring
building waves Friday into Friday night as well.

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-271015-
/O.CON.KMKX.GL.W.0037.190927T1200Z-190927T2100Z/
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
910 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2019

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM CDT FRIDAY...

* WINDS: South increasing to 35 to 40 knot gales at times 
  Friday. 

* WAVES: Waves 4 to 7 feet occasionally to 9 feet Friday 
  morning, building to 8 to 12 ft occasionally to 16 ft Friday 
  afternoon and evening. Waves subsiding to 4 to 6 feet 
  occasionally to 8 feet later Friday night. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occuring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ643>646-271015-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0081.190927T1200Z-190927T2100Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
910 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM CDT
FRIDAY...

* WINDS: South to southwest 20 to 30 knots.

* WAVES: 2 to 3 feet building to 4 to 6 feet by late morning. 
  Waves up to 8 feet possible towards the open waters. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 21 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$


www.weather.gov/mkx

313 
WHUS73 KMKX 270807
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
307 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2019

...Strong South To Southwest Winds Expected Today...

.South to southwest gales are expected today across the open 
waters of Lake Michigan. This will bring building waves today into
tonight as well.

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-271615-
/O.CON.KMKX.GL.W.0037.190927T1200Z-190927T2100Z/
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
307 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2019

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM
CDT THIS AFTERNOON...

* WINDS: South to southwest and increasing to 35 to 40 knot gales
  at times today.
 
* WAVES: Waves 5 to 8 feet occasionally to 10 feet this morning,
  building to 8 to 12 ft occasionally to 16 ft this afternoon.
  Waves subsiding to 4 to 6 feet occasionally to 8 feet by later 
  tonight.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occuring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ643>646-271615-
/O.EXT.KMKX.SC.Y.0081.190927T1200Z-190928T0000Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
307 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO
7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

The Small Craft Advisory is now in effect from 7 AM this morning
to 7 PM CDT this evening. 

* WINDS: South to southwest 20 to 30 knots.

* WAVES: 2 to 3 feet building to 4 to 7 feet by early this 
  afternoon. Waves up to 8 feet possible towards the open waters.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 21 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$
Wood
www.weather.gov/mkx

706 
WHUS73 KMKX 271356
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
856 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2019

...Strong South To Southwest Winds Expected Today...

.South to southwest gales are expected today across the open
waters of Lake Michigan. This will bring building waves today
into tonight as well.

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-272100-
/O.CON.KMKX.GL.W.0037.000000T0000Z-190927T2100Z/
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
856 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2019

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON...

* WINDS: South to southwest winds to 30 knots with 35 to 40 knot
  gales at times today.

* WAVES: Waves 5 to 8 feet building to 8 to 12 ft occasionally 
  to 16 ft this afternoon. Waves subsiding to 4 to 6 feet 
  occasionally to 8 feet by later tonight. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occuring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ643>646-272200-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0081.000000T0000Z-190928T0000Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
856 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS: South to southwest 20 to 30 knots.

* WAVES: 2 to 3 feet building to 4 to 7 feet by early this 
  afternoon. Waves up to 8 feet possible towards the open 
  waters. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 21 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$
MRC

www.weather.gov/mkx

690 
WHUS73 KMKX 272008
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
308 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2019

...Strong Southerly Winds Diminishing Late This Afternoon...

.Southerly gales will diminish as winds switch to the north behind
a cold front this evening and overnight. High waves will diminish
as well. 

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-272115-
/O.CON.KMKX.GL.W.0037.000000T0000Z-190927T2100Z/
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
308 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2019

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON...

* WINDS: South to southwest winds to 30 knots diminishing to 10 to
  20 knots early in the evening, then becoming north 10 to 20
  knots overnight. A few gale force gusts to 35 kt possible
  through late afternoon.

* WAVES: Waves 5 to 8 feet building to 8 to 12 ft occasionally 
  to 16 ft this afternoon. Waves subsiding to 4 to 6 feet 
  occasionally to 8 feet by later tonight. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occuring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ643>646-280000-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0081.000000T0000Z-190928T0000Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
308 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS: South to southwest 10 to 20 knots. Gusts to 25 knots
  toward the open lake.

* WAVES: 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet late in the evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 21 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$
MRC

www.weather.gov/mkx

978 
WHUS73 KMKX 272119
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
419 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2019

...Winds and Waves Diminishing This Afternoon and Evening...

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-272230-
/O.EXP.KMKX.GL.W.0037.000000T0000Z-190927T2100Z/
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
419 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2019

...GALE WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

The Gale Warning is no longer in effect. 

$$

LMZ643>646-280000-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0081.000000T0000Z-190928T0000Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
419 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS: Southwest to West 10 to 15 knots. 

* WAVES: 4 to 6 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet late in the 
  evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 21 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$


www.weather.gov/mkx

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1215 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2019

.UPDATE...

The breezy conditions this afternoon have helped to mix down some
drier air to the surface. This has allowed for some better warming
as a few sites are close to the high temp forecasted. Will nudge
up highs by a few degrees across the southern portion of the area.
Otherwise, the current forecast is on track and no other changes
are needed at this time.

&&

.AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...

Gusty westerly winds will continue through the early evening hours
before tapering off a bit. However, an approaching system will
switch winds to the S/SW late tonight into Friday and a stronger
jet just off the surface will spread over the area. This could
lead to Wind Shear concerns where speeds could be between 40-45
knots around 2,000ft. Showers and VCTS move in shortly before 12z
and then could continue off/on through much of Friday as a low
moves just south of the area. Still hard to pin point any
particular period of heaviest rainfall as models still differ on
timing. Expect VFR conditions for much of the current TAF period,
then towards 14-16z Friday cigs should lower to MVFR with bases
possibly falling down to 1,500ft.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 931 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2019)

UPDATE...

High pressure will pass south of the area today with winds
gradually becoming more southerly through the day. Temperatures
will warm into the upper 60s with a few lower 70s likely possible
for the western portions of the area. No major changes are needed
at this time.

MARINE...

The breezy westerly winds will continue through the day but gusts
are expected to stay around 20 knots. No major changes are needed
at this time.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 617 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2019)

UPDATE...

The forecast looks on track for today. No changes are needed at
this time.

AVIATION(12Z TAFS)...

VFR conditions are expected today into tonight across the area.
Mostly sunny skies are expected today, though may see some diurnal
cumulus clouds develop in the afternoon. West winds may gust to
around 18 to 20 knots at times later this morning into the
afternoon.

Winds will become southwest to south tonight and weaken. There
should be some low level wind shear after 09Z Friday into about
15Z Friday, with south southwest winds at 2000 feet around 40 to
45 knots. VFR category ceilings will move into the area.

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms may move east through
the area later tonight, with showers and storms becoming more
widespread Friday. Ceilings should drop to IFR category Friday
with the precipitation, and may bee MVFR visibility values with
any storms. Gusty south winds are expected Friday as well.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 337 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2019)

SHORT TERM...

Today...Forecast Confidence Is High.

The last of the clouds should exit far southeast Wisconsin in the
next hour or two. Mostly sunny skies are expected today, with high
pressure moving from the central Plains into the Ohio River
Valley. There may be some diurnal cumulus development this
afternoon. West winds may get gusty at times, with decent low
level mixing. Highs should reach the upper 60s to around 70.

Tonight...Forecast Confidence Is Moderate.

The high will move to the east tonight, with warm air advection
developing in the low levels. The low level jet axis will veer
into Wisconsin later tonight as well, bringing more moisture into
the region. This should bring chances for showers and some
elevated convection into the area later tonight. It appears that
the low levels may remain dry, which may serve to limit
precipitation to a more scattered nature. This is shown in several
CAMs later tonight. The elevated CAPE is also rather meager later
tonight, so am not concerned about severe weather. Left chance
PoPs for thunder in forecast for later tonight.

LONG TERM...

Friday through Saturday...Forecast Confidence Moderate...

Rain and thunderstorms should be ongoing across the region Friday
morning, with strong low level southerly/southwesterly flow ahead
of an approaching front. Heavy rain will be a concern during this
period, though there is considerable uncertainty as to where
exactly that axis will set up. With the bulk of the stronger
instability remaining just to our south (i.e., northern Illinois),
far southern and southeastern Wisconsin look to have the best
chance of seeing the heavy rain. Still a bit early (and too much
uncertainty) for a Flood or Flash Flood Watch at this point, but
it will be something to consider over the next 12-18 hours
depending on the trends in guidance. In addition to the threat for
areal or flash flooding, additional rises on southern Wisconsin
rivers are probable following this rainfall.

The front is expected to push south of the area Friday night, with
a brief period of dry weather expected through the day Saturday,
as high pressure quickly scoots east across the upper Great
Lakes. Saturday will be quite Autumn-like, with highs only
reaching the low 60s under partly to mostly cloudy skies.

Sunday through Mid to Late Week...Forecast Confidence Moderate...

The front returns back north as a warm front Sunday into Sunday
night, with brisk southerly winds expected across the area. Likely
will see a pretty significant gradient in temps on Sunday, with
highs in the low to mid 60s north and low to mid 70s south. A
smattering of showers and few thunderstorms are also possible,
given the deep warm advection over the region.

Monday through Wednesday continues to look very unsettled, with
deep southwest flow aloft. The frontal boundary will likely
meander around central and southern Wisconsin, with its location
modified by multiple rounds of convection. Tough to say exactly
where the axis of heaviest rain will set up, but the potential is
there for some areas to see a few inches through Wednesday.

Guidance remains consistent in pushing a strong cold front through
the area Wednesday night or early Thursday, with cool (and dry!)
Canadian high pressure pushing into the region. An early look at
temps suggests readings at or even below average by late week.

AVIATION(09Z TAF UPDATES)...

Clouds should move out of Kenosha in the next hour or two. VFR
conditions are expected today into tonight across the area. Mostly
sunny skies are expected today, though may see some diurnal
cumulus clouds develop in the afternoon. West winds may gust to
around 18 knots at times later this morning into the afternoon.

Winds will become southwest to south tonight and weaken. VFR
category ceilings will move into the area as well. Scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms may move east through the area
later tonight. Left mention out of TAFs for now.

MARINE...

Breezy west winds are expected later this morning into the
afternoon across the nearshore waters of Lake Michigan. Gusts
should remain around 20 knots, so no Small Craft Advisory will be
needed. Winds will weaken tonight.

Gusty southwest to south winds are expected by later tonight into
Friday, as the pressure gradient tightens with low pressure
passing well north of the region. Some gale force gusts are
possible over the open waters, so a Gale Watch has been issued
from 12Z to 21Z Friday. Considered one for the nearshore waters as
well, but conditions there may be a little more stable. A Small
Craft Advisory will be needed for later tonight through Friday for
the nearshore waters. Building waves are expected as well later
tonight into Friday.

Breezy northeast winds may bring building waves to the nearshore
waters on Saturday, lingering into Sunday. Another Small Craft
Advisory may be needed for this period.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Gale Watch from Friday morning through Friday afternoon for
     LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-
     868-870-872-874-876-878.

&&

Update...Stumpf
Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...Boxell
Friday THROUGH Wednesday...Wood

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
250 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2019

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-272000-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
250 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central Wisconsin,
south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

There is a chance of thunderstorms heading into the predawn hours
of Friday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Thursday

Thunderstorms will continue across the region on Friday. Locally
heavy rain is possible over far southern and southeastern Wisconsin.

After a break on Saturday, thunderstorm chances will return to the
area Saturday night and Sunday, continuing into the middle part
of next week. Heavy rain will be possible during this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LMZ643>646-272000-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
250 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters from
Sheboygan Wisconsin to Winthrop Harbor Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Thursday

Widespread thunderstorms are expected for most of the day Friday.
Additional chances for storms are expected Sunday into the middle
part of next week.

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect Friday through mid afternoon.

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-272000-
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
250 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the open waters of Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Thursday

Strong southerly winds are expected Friday morning and afternoon.
A Gale Warning is in effect for this time.

Thunderstorms are expected across mainly the southern half of the
lake Friday into Friday night. Additional storms are possible over
the entire lake Saturday night through the middle part of next
week.

Collar
www.weather.gov/mkx