Gale Warning 30, NWS Milwaukee, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1256 AM CDT Wed May 22 2019

.UPDATE...
Gusty winds continue across southern WI and some observations to
the west/southwest have indicated locally higher gusts up to 50
mph due to some ducting. Thus, an SPS has been issued until 3am
for our western counties from Green, Dane, Columbia, and Green
Lake counties and west. Depending on how the higher winds unfold
we may need to issue another SPS for some of the eastern counties.
Otherwise, weak storms and showers continue to push
east/northeast through the eastern parts of the CWA.

&&

.AVIATION(06Z TAFS)...
Showers and weak storms will move through the eastern parts of
southern WI over the next hour or so. This will generally bring
VSBYS to around 6SM with pockets of heavier rain bringing VSBYS as
low as 3SM. We will also have strong low level wind shear through
9z to the west and as late as 12z to the east at around 50 kts to
2 kft from the southeast. As the precipitation moves through the
region MVFR CIGS will fill in and will quickly fall to IFR between
9z and 12z from west to east. IFR CIGS will fall as low as 500 ft
and will last the much of the morning hours before clouds scatter
out. Winds will remain quite breezy through the day with some
potential for storms in southeast WI in the late
evening/overnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 933 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019)

UPDATE...

Rain showers have moved into the western forecast area and remain
on track to move through late evening and overnight. Still looks
like thunder will be possible, especially toward the Illinois
border.

MARINE...

High pressure over the central Great Lakes will continue to move
slowly east tonight. East to northeast winds will increase through
the remainder of the evening ahead of low pressure over the
Kansas/Nebraska borer. Winds will be gusty out of east to
southeast overnight into Wednesday as the low lifts into Minnesota
by Wednesday afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect
through the day Wednesday.

Winds will weaken a little and veer to the southwest Wednesday
night as the low departs and high pressure approaches. No gale
force wind events are expected through the week.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 703 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019)

UPDATE...

The timing of the approaching band of showers and isolated thunder
is in pretty good line with what the day crew put in the forecast.
Just made some minor adjustments to the precip chances. Did bump
the rain totals up a bit in the west per latest model guidance.
Thunder chances this evening into tonight look the highest from
Madison and Milwaukee southward, with decreasing instability to
the north.

AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...

The first forecast concern this evening is the development of low
level wind shear. Winds will pick up aloft as the jet moves into
the area and will be gusty at the surface at times through the
night. Looked like a big enough wind differential in the lowest
2kft to keep the mention of wind shear in the TAFs, especially if
the gusts aren't that frequent due to limited mixing after sunset.

Attention then turns to the approaching band of showers and
isolated thunder. This will push through later this evening and
overnight. Based on upstream conditions, thinking visibilities
could go down to the 2-4 mile range in the more moderate rain.
Ceilings will also drop as the low levels saturate. The rain
should clear out of the east early Wed morning, with VFR
conditions returning not too long after.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 226 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019)

DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Wednesday...Forecast Confidence is Medium to High.

Drier easterly low level flow holding bulk of light showers at
bay. However isolated showers have been tickling the western and
southwest areas. Main period of showers and possibly an isolated
t-storm will be later this evening through about 09Z as axis of
upstream low level jet pivots eastward. At the same time,
Wisconsin will be on the eastern edge of a mid-upper level short
wave trof rotating northward around Plains low pressure that will
be tracking mostly NNE tonight and Wednesday. Column precipitable
water increases to around an inch with the bulk of the moisture
increase late this afternoon and evening. Layer Q-vector
convergence increases to 20-30 units as the stronger synoptic
forcing slides through. Expecting a swath of mostly showers with a
small chance for a rumble of thunder to affect the area overnight
with minimal elevated instability.

Synoptic forcing slides off to the northeast later tonight with
mostly dry conditions on Wednesday. Drier air wrapping into the
system will result in the clouds breaking up in the morning with a
mild and breezy afternoon. Southwest gusts to 30 to 35 mph will be
possible. Low levels of the atmosphere per Bufkit soundings looks
fairly dry with a capping inversion most of the day, so held off
on introducing any showers, except in the far north, closer to the
warm front and better low level convergence.

Wednesday night...Forecast confidence is medium.

A low pressure center will track from northern Minnesota to Lake
Superior with a trailing cold front drifting across southern
Wisconsin...exiting to the southeast by 12z Thu. Some models are
lighting off a few showers/storms along the front across mainly the
southeast later in the evening and just after midnight due to a
brief surge in frontogenetic forcing coupled with some weak CAPE.
The problem is the column is quite dry except for some moisture
below about 6kft. Will continue to carry a small chance of
showers/storms as it moves through.

Thursday and Friday...Forecast confidence is medium.

High pressure builds very briefly across the area bringing a
rather fine day to the area on Thursday. We should get into some
sunshine with highs in the 70s...even by Lake Michigan! In fact, a
massive mid level ridge will be building from the the Gulf
Coastal States, north into the Great Lakes. Although this will
help bring milder temps to the region, it will also put us in a
more active southwest flow pattern. The first of a few
disturbances to impact the region will arrive late Thursday night.
A convective complex will develop across Nebraska and Iowa and
push into southern Wisconsin late Thursday night and diurnally
weaken over Wisconsin Friday morning.

The Storm Prediction Center is highlighting southern Wisconsin for
the potential of severe weather on Friday, but this is conditional
on whether we can clear out, heat up and fire off new convection
on the remnant outflow boundary/cold front in the afternoon. Right
now it looks like we'll have quite a bit of convective debris
clouds, and lingering rain into the early afternoon. This should
be enough to temper the amount and strength redevelopment. In
addition, it looks like the convective outflow boundary may push
south into Illinois, taking the new development potential south of
Wisconsin. Plenty of uncertainty for now and we'll have to give
it some time to play out.

Memorial Day Weekend (Sun-Mon)...Forecast confidence is medium.

We should see a nearly stationary boundary set up south of
Wisconsin with high pressure dominating to our north. This is
looking favorable for a rather dry and rather pleasant holiday
weekend. Given the proximity of the boundary to the south and the
rather active southwest to zonal mid level flow, we can't rule out
precip chances completely...especially down near the WI/IL border
area. Since will be on the north side of the boundary, temps will
likely hover in the mid 60s to mid 70s.

Tuesday...Forecast confidence is medium.

The long range guidance is in rather good agreement in bringing
our next round of showers and storms with a convective complex
arriving late Monday night and Tuesday.

AVIATION(21Z TAFS)...

Drier easterly low level flow holding bulk of light showers at bay
for now. Expect isolated light showers to become more numerous
through the late afternoon and especially the evening. Most areas
will experience a band of showers overnight with lower ceilings to
MVFR levels. East to southeast winds will remain gusty just above
shallow weak inversion. However expect gusty winds at the surface
to around 20 kts or a little higher, so held off on adding LLWS to
TAFS. Most of Wednesday will be VFR as ceilings are expected to
rise during the morning.

MARINE...High pressure ridge over Lake Michigan will continue to
weaken as strong low pressure in the southern Plains moves slowly
northward. The approaching low pressure will result in a
tightening pressure gradient and resultant increasing mostly
easterly winds gradually turning to the southeast later tonight
and Wednesday. Due to the cooler lake waters causing a steep,
shallow low level inversion, the strongest winds are not expected
to mix down to the lake surface. However gustier winds will likely
be reached at the pilot house on top of the bulk carriers
traversing the lake. For now, thinking the gusts will remain below
30 kts at this level, which is anywhere from 60 to 90 feet off
the lake surface. Will keep Small Craft Advisory in effect for
near shore waters for tonight into Wednesday due to building waves
and gusts to 25 knots. Despite the winds veering to the south to
southwest on Wednesday, wave heights will remain elevated much of
the day.

BEACHES...

Persistent easterly winds tonight, veering southeast on Wednesday
will bring building waves to the beaches of southeast
Wisconsin...resulting in a high swim risk. The high swim risk will
begin south of Milwaukee early this evening, and north of
Milwaukee toward midnight. These conditions will continue into
Wednesday. It should be noted that water temperatures are in the
upper 30s to mid 40s.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement through this afternoon for WIZ066-071-
     072.

     Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for WIZ052-060.

LM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LMZ646.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LMZ643>645.

&&

Update...ARK
Tonight/Thursday and Aviation/Marine...DDV
Thursday Night through Wednesday...DDV

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
310 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-222015-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond Du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
310 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

There is a high swim risk along Lake Michigan. Stay away from
dangerous areas like piers, breakwalls and river outlets.

There is a slight chance for thunderstorms tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Tuesday

There is a high swim risk along Lake Michigan Wednesday. Stay
away from dangerous areas like piers, breakwalls and river
outlets.

There are chances for thunderstorms at times this week into the
weekend. There is a chance for a strong to severe thunderstorm on
Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed on Friday.

LMZ643>646-222015-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
310 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters from
Sheboygan Wisconsin to Winthrop Harbor Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for tonight due to breezy
east to southeasterly winds. Wind gusts to 25 knots are expected.
Waves will build to 3 to 6 feet.

There is a slight chance for thunderstorms tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Tuesday

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through Wednesday afternoon
due to breezy east to southeasterly winds. Winds and waves
gradually diminish during the afternoon.

There are chances for thunderstorms at times this week and the
weekend.

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-222015-
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
310 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the open waters of Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

There is a slight chance of thunderstorms across the southern
portions of Lake Michigan tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Tuesday

Chances for thunderstorms are forecast at times this week and the
weekend.

www.weather.gov/mkx

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1138 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

WIZ046-047-056-057-062-063-067-068-220900-
Marquette-Green Lake-Sauk-Columbia-Iowa-Dane-Lafayette-Green-
Including the cities of Montello, Westfield, Oxford, Neshkoro,
Endeavor, Berlin, Princeton, Markesan, Baraboo, Reedsburg,
Prairie Du Sac, Sauk City, Portage, Columbus, Lake Wisconsin,
Lodi, Dodgeville, Mineral Point, Barneveld, Madison, Darlington,
Shullsburg, Benton, Belmont, Argyle, Blanchardville, Monroe,
and Brodhead
1138 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

...Very Gusty Winds Expected As Rain Ends...

Surface observations southwest of the area have shown a brief
period of gusty winds over the past hour on the back edge of the
rain. Locations can expect wind gusts of 40 to 50 MPH as showers
come to an end during the overnight hours.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
210 AM CDT Wed May 22 2019

WIZ051-052-058>060-064>066-069>072-221100-
Fond Du Lac-Sheboygan-Dodge-Washington-Ozaukee-Jefferson-Waukesha-
Milwaukee-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
Including the cities of Fond Du Lac, Plymouth, Sheboygan Falls,
Howards Grove, Oostburg, Beaver Dam, Waupun, Mayville, West Bend,
Germantown, Hartford, Mequon, Cedarburg, Grafton, Watertown,
Fort Atkinson, Jefferson, Waukesha, Brookfield, New Berlin,
Menomonee Falls, Muskego, West Allis, Wauwatosa, Greenfield,
Franklin, Oak Creek, South Milwaukee, Cudahy, Janesville, Beloit,
Whitewater, Delavan, Elkhorn, Lake Geneva, East Troy, Racine,
and Kenosha
210 AM CDT Wed May 22 2019

...Very Gusty Winds Expected As Rain Ends...

Surface observations across parts of northern Illinois and in
southwest Wisconsin have shown a brief period of gusty winds over
the past hour behind the rain. Locations can expect wind gusts of
40 to 50 MPH as showers come to an end over the next several hours.