Gale Warning 26, NWS Milwaukee, WI

773 
WHUS73 KMKX 141515
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1015 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...NORTHERLY GALES SOUTH TWO THIRDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...

LMZ080-366-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-870-872-874-876-
878-142315-
/O.CON.KMKX.GL.W.0026.190414T1800Z-190415T0900Z/
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
1015 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM CDT MONDAY...

* WINDS: Northeast to 30 kt becoming north gales to 40 kt in the 
  afternoon, then becoming northwest to 30 kt after midnight. 

* WAVES: Waves 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft building to 8 to 
  11 ft occasionally to 14 ft this evening, then subsiding to 6 
  to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft overnight. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occuring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ643>646-142315-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0037.000000T0000Z-190415T0900Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
1015 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM CDT MONDAY...

* WINDS: North 15 to 25 kt with gusts to around 30 knots 
  developing this afternoon. Winds diminishing to 10 to 20 knots 
  and becoming northwest late tonight. 

* WAVES: Building to 7 to 9 feet by this evening, before 
  subsiding to 3 to 4 feet late tonight. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 21 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$


www.weather.gov/mkx

735 
WHUS73 KMKX 141949
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
249 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...NORTHERLY GALES SOUTH TWO THIRDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...

LMZ080-366-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-870-872-874-876-
878-150400-
/O.CON.KMKX.GL.W.0026.000000T0000Z-190415T0900Z/
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
249 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM CDT MONDAY...

* WINDS: Northeast to 30 kt becoming north gales to 40 kt in the 
  afternoon, then becoming northwest to 30 kt after midnight. 

* WAVES: Waves 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft building to 8 to 
  11 ft occasionally to 14 ft this evening, then subsiding to 6 
  to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft overnight. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occuring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ643>646-150400-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0037.000000T0000Z-190415T0900Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
249 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM CDT MONDAY...

* WINDS: North 15 to 25 kt with gusts to around 30 knots 
  developing this afternoon. Winds diminishing to 10 to 20 knots 
  and becoming northwest late tonight. 

* WAVES: Building to 7 to 9 feet by this evening, before 
  subsiding to 3 to 4 feet late tonight. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 21 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$


www.weather.gov/mkx

134 
WHUS73 KMKX 150159
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
859 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...NORTHERLY GALES SOUTH TWO THIRDS INTO TONIGHT...

LMZ080-366-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-870-872-874-876-
878-150900-
/O.CON.KMKX.GL.W.0026.000000T0000Z-190415T0900Z/
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
859 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM CDT MONDAY...

* WINDS: North to 30 kt. 

* WAVES: Waves 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft.
  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occuring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ643>646-150900-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0037.000000T0000Z-190415T0900Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
859 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM CDT MONDAY...

* WINDS: North 15 to 20 kt with gusts 30 knots. 

* WAVES: 4 to 7 feet, before subsiding to 3 to 4 feet late 
  tonight.
  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 21 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$


www.weather.gov/mkx

250 
WHUS73 KMKX 150205
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
905 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...NORTHERLY GALES SOUTH TWO THIRDS INTO TONIGHT...

LMZ080-366-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-870-872-874-876-
878-150900-
/O.CON.KMKX.GL.W.0026.000000T0000Z-190415T0900Z/
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
905 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM CDT MONDAY...

* WINDS: North to 35 kt.

* WAVES: Waves 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occuring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ643>646-150900-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0037.000000T0000Z-190415T0900Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
905 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM CDT MONDAY...

* WINDS: North 15 to 20 kt with gusts 30 knots.

* WAVES: 4 to 7 feet, before subsiding to 3 to 4 feet late 
  tonight. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 21 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$


www.weather.gov/mkx

371 
WHUS73 KMKX 150412
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1112 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...Gales No Longer Expected Overnight...
...Gusty North To Northwest Winds Gradually Weakening...

LMZ080-366-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-870-872-874-876-
878-150515-
/O.CAN.KMKX.GL.W.0026.000000T0000Z-190415T0900Z/
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
1112 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Milwaukee/Sullivan has cancelled
the Gale Warning. 

North to northwest winds should remain around 30 knots overnight,
slowly weakening on Monday. Thus, the Gale Warning has been
cancelled.

$$

LMZ643>646-150900-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0037.000000T0000Z-190415T0900Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
1112 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM CDT MONDAY...

* WINDS: North to northwest 15 to 20 kt, with gusts to 25 kt.
  Winds decreasing to 10 to 15 kt overnight.

* WAVES: 4 to 7 feet, subsiding to 3 to 4 feet overnight.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 21 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$
Wood
www.weather.gov/mkx

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1212 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

.UPDATE...

00Z models generally show a consensus with bringing QPF into the
southeast areas Sunday morning, lingering into the afternoon
before moving off to the east by early evening. May need to delay
onset of the snow an hour or two from south to north across the
southeastern areas this morning, given latest mesoscale model
trends. Still looks to be a wet, slushy snow on grassy areas, with
heavier bands possibly bringing these conditions to some roads.

May need to lower snow to liquid ratios to 6:1 or 7:1, given the
expected temperatures and low level thermal profiles. Still
expecting a general 1 to 3-plus inch snowfall on grassy areas in
the southeast, with a quick shutoff of the snow to the west. Most
of south central Wisconsin should not see any snow.

&&

.AVIATION(06Z TAFS)...

Winds will veer to the northeast overnight into Sunday morning.
They will become gusty Sunday morning as well, with gusty north
northeast winds Sunday afternoon. Highest gusts around 25 knots
should be near Lake Michigan. They should become northwest and
light Sunday night.

Snow should move northward into southeast Wisconsin Sunday
morning, reaching Kenosha by 12Z Sunday, Milwaukee/Waukesha by
13Z to 14Z Sunday, and areas north of there by 16Z Sunday.

Wet, slushy snow accumulations of 1 to 3-plus inches are expected
Sunday, highest toward Milwaukee and Kenosha. Most accumulations
will be on grassy areas. However, any moderate to heavy snowfall
bands would bring slushy light accumulations of 1/2 to 1 inch on
runways. Snowfall rates should be up to 1/4 inch per hour, though
may be higher at times. The snow should end west to east by 00Z to
03Z Monday.

Ceilings should drop to around 1000 feet or a little less by late
Sunday morning into the afternoon. Visibility values should drop
to 1 to 2 miles during this time, though may get a little lower at
times.

Madison, and most of south central Wisconsin, will be on the edge
of the area of snow Sunday. If they do see any snow, it will be
very light, but would bring wet runways and a few tenths of an
inch on grassy areas. Should see ceilings down to around 1500 feet
Sunday here.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 933 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019)

UPDATE...

No changes to the going forecast for the rest of tonight into
Sunday are needed at this time. 00Z NAM now has more reasonable
QPF values for Sunday morning across the southeast parts of the
area. However, it has much higher QPF for Sunday afternoon than
the previous run. This may be a result of lingering 850 mb to 700
mb frontogenesis response over this area.

The 12Z ECMWF also showed higher QPF for this period in the
southeast parts of the area, so it will be interesting to see how
the rest of the 00Z model runs handle QPF for Sunday afternoon.
Some of the models have been jumping around with QPF values for
Sunday over the past few days, so some uncertainty remains with
the snow accumulations.

For now, still expecting wet, slushy accumulations of 1 to 4
inches in the southeastern parts of the area, highest toward
Kenosha. These would be mainly in grassy surfaces, with heavier
snowfall rates bringing slushy light accumulations to roads.

MARINE...

Nearshore Waters...

Small Craft Advisory has been extended until 09Z Monday, as
elevated waves of 5 to 8 feet should linger until later Sunday
night. Northeast to north winds of 15 to 25 knots are expected
Sunday into Sunday evening, with gusts to 30 knots. Winds will
decrease to 10 to 15 knots and become northwest by later Sunday
night.

Open Waters...

Low pressure passing by to the southeast of Lake Michigan will
bring gusty northeast to north winds Sunday into Sunday night.
Frequent gusts to 30 knots are expected during this time,
especially over the south half of the lake. A few gale force
gusts to 35 knots are possible in this area as well. However, do
not see enough of this potential for a Gale Warning at this time.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 728 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019)

UPDATE...

No changes to the going forecast for tonight into Sunday are
needed at this time. 18Z runs of the NAM/GFS are similar with the
forecast timing of the initial snow into the southeastern parts
of the area Sunday morning. 18Z NAM continues to be overdone with
QPF values Sunday morning, with blend of 18Z GFS/12Z ECMWF more
reasonable. The sharp shutoff of the snow is still expected to be
somewhere along a Monroe, to east of Madison, to west of Fond du
Lac line. Some uncertainty here, as this may fluctuate east or
west a bit.

Main issue affecting impactful snowfall amounts will be the
snowfall rates against the warmer pavement temperatures. Any
moderate to heavy snowfall rates would allow for some slushy wet
accumulations on pavement. Will see if the 00Z Sunday model runs
show any appreciable differences with QPF timing and placement.
Given the timing on Sunday and mainly wet with some slushy road
conditions expected, do not see the need for an advisory.

AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...

Gusty northwest winds have subsided across the area, and these
winds will veer to the northeast later tonight into Sunday
morning. They will become gusty Sunday morning as well, with
gusty north northeast winds Sunday afternoon. Highest gusts around
25 knots should be near Lake Michigan. They should become
northwest and light Sunday night.

Snow should move northward into southeast Wisconsin Sunday
morning, reaching Kenosha by 12Z Sunday, Milwaukee/Waukesha by
13Z to 14Z Sunday, and areas north of there by 16Z Sunday.

Wet, slushy snow accumulations of 1 to 4 inches are expected
Sunday, highest toward Milwaukee and Kenosha. Most accumulations
will be on grassy areas. However, any moderate to heavy snowfall
bands would bring slushy light accumulations of 1/2 to 1 inch on
runways. Snowfall rates should be up to 1/4 inch per hour, though
may be higher at times. The snow should end west to east by 00Z to
03Z Monday.

Ceilings should drop to around 1000 feet or a little less by late
Sunday morning into the afternoon. Visibility values should drop
to 1 to 2 miles during this time, though may get a little lower at
times.

Madison, and most of south central Wisconsin, will be on the edge
of the area of snow Sunday. If they do see any snow, it will be
very light, but would bring wet runways and a few tenths of an
inch on grassy areas. Should see ceilings down to around 1500 feet
Sunday here.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 327 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019)

SHORT TERM...

Tonight Through Sunday Night...Forecast Confidence is Medium...

Low clouds remain in place over much of the area and temperatures
remain on the cool side, with mid afternoon readings ranging from
the mid 40s over far southeastern Wisconsin to just mid 30s
north. Winds are gusty from the west, but will begin to diminish
late this afternoon into this evening as high pressure briefly
builds into the area. Lows tonight will be in the low 30s.

Models still differ to some extent on the location of the northern
edge of precipitation on Sunday. Generally, large scale forcing
is sufficient for at least some snow throughout southern WI with
the 500mb trough supplying PVA. A sharp gradient in mid level
moisture will be key to determining the northwestward extent to
the snowfall. At this point, Fond du Lac down to Madison and
Monroe look to be right around the cutoff.

WAA and frontogenesis tends to favor the far southeast to see
potential for a few heavy bands of snow at times in the late
morning and early afternoon. This could produce a few inches of
snow, primarily on grassy surfaces, as temperatures will likely
remain above freezing. This will limit accumulation on paved
surfaces for the most part, though snowfall rates will likely be
high enough to produce some areas of heavy, wet slush at times.
Visibility will also be considerably reduced within the heaviest
snow bands. The system will then begin to push out Sunday evening
and clear skies will quickly follow as a surface ridge will push
into WI by Monday morning.

LONG TERM...

Monday through Saturday...Forecast confidence is medium to high:

There is high confidence in an active pattern for the upcoming
week, with multiple rounds of showers and a few storms expected.
There is lesser confidence in the finer details though, such as
wave/precip timing and temperatures.

It should be dry Monday as high pressure briefly moves through.
Expect some morning sunshine, but mid level clouds will likely
move in for the afternoon. Temps will climb back toward normal
values, but still be a few degrees below average for mid-April.

A slow moving low pressure system will approach the area Monday
night into Wed, moving through the great lakes Thursday into
Saturday. A warm front will push into the area ahead of the low,
bringing showers and a few storms at times Monday night into
Thursday. A consensus of models continues to show the front
generally bisecting the forecast area during this period, with
milder temps in the south and cooler north. Certainly a lot of
time for these finer details to change, and exact warm front
placement can be tricky this time of the year with the influence
of the chilly waters of Lake Michigan. Temps will likely vary 20
or so degrees across the front, especially if you factor in colder
temps near Lake Michigan. Available instability along with the
chance for thunder will also vary across the front.

Precipitation will continue Thursday night into Friday night as
the low moves through...with rain possibly lingering into Saturday
morning. Not much of a chance for thunder during this period, as
the bulk of instability will have pushed east.

AVIATION(21Z TAFS)...Clouds will stick around through this
afternoon remaining just above MVFR. Mid-level clouds will stick
around through this evening and tonight before MVFR CIGS and VSBYS
develop in association with the low pressure system passing to
the southeast. Snow will begin to fall Sunday morning and continue
through the afternoon for southeast WI, including the Waukesha,
Milwaukee, and Kenosha airports. As this system progresses into
the region CIGS will fall to around 1-1.5 kft and VSBYS to around
1-2 miles. CIGS could fall below 1 kft and VSBYS will likely reach
3/4 miles for a period of time in association with falling snow.

This storm is expected to have a sharp cutoff in both low clouds
and snowfall and is expected to affect primarily the southeast.
However, there is a chance that some MVFR conditions will be
possible for Madison.

MARINE...

Breezy southwest winds will slowly diminish heading into this
evening as high pressure builds into the region. On Sunday, a
storm system will move from the mid Mississippi Valley region into
Ohio, with north winds developing across Lake Michigan. Winds to
around 30 knots can be expected, and for now it looks like they
will remain just below gale force, though a few gale gusts aren't
out of the question across the south half of the lake. For the
nearshore, a Small Craft Advisory will be in effect beginning at 7
AM Sunday morning, continuing into Sunday evening.

A period of relative calm is expected Monday and Tuesday, before
thunderstorm chances increase later Wednesday into Thursday.
Another strong area of low pressure may affect the region late in
the week; if so, expect to see winds and waves increase Wednesday
and Thursday in response.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Sunday to 4 AM CDT Monday for
     LMZ643>646.

&&

Update...Wood
Tonight/Sunday and Aviation/Marine...ARK
Sunday Night through Saturday...DDV

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
936 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-150245-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond Du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
936 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Rest Of Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Saturday

Light snow accumulations are expected on Sunday, particularly in
far southeast Wisconsin, where 1 to 4 inches of wet, slushy snow
will be possible.

There will be a slight chance for thunderstorms from Tuesday
night into Thursday, as a warm front slides into the area ahead of
an approaching strong low pressure system.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed, but snowfall reports Sunday
into Sunday night will be appreciated.

LMZ643>646-150245-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
936 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters from
Sheboygan Wisconsin to Winthrop Harbor Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Saturday

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect Sunday into Sunday night, for
gusty northeast to north winds and elevated waves.

There will be a slight chance for thunderstorms from Tuesday
night into Thursday, as a warm front slides into the area ahead of
an approaching strong low pressure system.

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-150245-
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
936 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the open waters of Lake
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Saturday

Brisk north to northeast winds and high waves are expected for
Sunday into Sunday night, as low pressure moves across the Ohio
River Valley. A few gusts could approach gale force.

There will be a slight chance for thunderstorms from Tuesday
night into Thursday, mainly across the southern half of the lake.

Wood
www.weather.gov/mkx