Alert archive / Wisconsin / Gale Warnings in 2019
Gale Warning 17, NWS Milwaukee, WI
NWS Milwaukee, WI issued this gale warning at Feb 24, 2019, 8:37 PM CST. It took effect at Feb 24, 2019, 9:00 PM CST. It was in force for 9 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 24, 2019, 8:37 PM CST (02:37 UTC)
- In effect from
- Feb 24, 2019, 9:00 PM CST
- Expired
- Feb 25, 2019, 6:00 AM CST
- In force
- 9 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Milwaukee, WI
The text
As transmitted.
913 WHUS73 KMKX 250237 MWWMKX URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 837 PM CST Sun Feb 24 2019 ...Gusty Winds Continue...Freezing Spray Also a Concern... LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868- 870-872-874-876-878-251045- /O.EXP.KMKX.SR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-190225T0300Z/ /O.CON.KMKX.UP.W.0006.000000T0000Z-190225T1800Z/ /O.NEW.KMKX.GL.W.0017.190225T0300Z-190225T1200Z/ Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to mid-line of lake.- Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South Fox Island 5NM offshore- Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to mid lake- Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM offshore to mid lake- Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid lake- Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- 837 PM CST Sun Feb 24 2019 ...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY... ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY... ...STORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM CST THIS EVENING... The National Weather Service in Milwaukee/Sullivan has issued a Gale Warning...which is in effect until 6 AM CST Monday. The Storm Warning will expire at 9 PM CST this evening. * WINDS: West to northwest gales to 45 knots. A few storm force gusts to 50 knots will remain possible this evening. * WAVES: Waves 18 to 23 ft occasionally to 28 ft subsiding to 12 to 16 ft occasionally to 21 ft. * FREEZING SPRAY: The combination of strong winds, falling temperatures and high waves will result in heavy freezing spray accumulation on vessels tonight into Monday. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Heavy Freezing Spray Warning means heavy freezing spray is expected to rapidly accumulate on vessels. These conditions can be extremely hazardous to navigation. It is recommended that mariners not trained to operate in these conditions or vessels not properly equipped to do so...remain in port or avoid the warning area. A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or occuring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions. && $$ LMZ643>646-251045- /O.EXP.KMKX.SR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-190225T0300Z/ /O.CON.KMKX.UP.W.0006.000000T0000Z-190225T1800Z/ /O.NEW.KMKX.GL.W.0017.190225T0300Z-190225T1000Z/ Sheboygan to Port Washington WI- Port Washington to North Point Light WI- North Point Light to Wind Point WI- Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL- 837 PM CST Sun Feb 24 2019 ...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY... ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY... ...STORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM CST THIS EVENING... The National Weather Service in Milwaukee/Sullivan has issued a Gale Warning...which is in effect until 4 AM CST Monday. The Storm Warning will expire at 9 PM CST this evening. * WINDS: West to northwest gales 40 to 45 knots through midnight, then gales of 35 to 40 knots after midnight. * WAVES: 4 to 7 feet, with a sharp increase in wave height near open waters. * FREEZING SPRAY: The combination of strong winds, falling temperatures and high waves will result in heavy freezing spray accumulation on vessels tonight into Monday. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Heavy Freezing Spray Warning means heavy freezing spray is expected to rapidly accumulate on vessels. These conditions can be extremely hazardous to navigation. It is recommended that mariners not trained to operate in these conditions or vessels not properly equipped to do so...remain in port or avoid the warning area. A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or occuring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions. && $$ www.weather.gov/mkx
3 follow-up statements
981 WHUS73 KMKX 250903 MWWMKX URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 303 AM CST Mon Feb 25 2019 ...Gusty Winds Into Today... ...Heavy Freezing Spray Continues Into Tuesday Morning... LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868- 870-872-874-876-878-251715- /O.EXT.KMKX.UP.W.0006.000000T0000Z-190226T1800Z/ /O.CON.KMKX.GL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-190225T1200Z/ Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to mid-line of lake.- Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South Fox Island 5NM offshore- Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to mid lake- Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM offshore to mid lake- Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid lake- Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- 303 AM CST Mon Feb 25 2019 ...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY... ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING... The Heavy Freezing Spray Warning is now in effect until noon CST Tuesday. * WINDS: West to northwest gales to 35 knots early this morning. then 15 to 25 knots this morning into this afternoon. * WAVES: Waves 10 to 14 ft occasionally to 18 ft subsiding to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft today. * FREEZING SPRAY: The combination of gusty winds, falling temperatures and high waves will result in heavy freezing spray accumulation on vessels into Tuesday morning. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Heavy Freezing Spray Warning means heavy freezing spray is expected to rapidly accumulate on vessels. These conditions can be extremely hazardous to navigation. It is recommended that mariners not trained to operate in these conditions or vessels not properly equipped to do so...remain in port or avoid the warning area. A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or occuring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions. && $$ LMZ643>646-251715- /O.EXT.KMKX.UP.W.0006.000000T0000Z-190226T1800Z/ /O.CON.KMKX.GL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-190225T1000Z/ Sheboygan to Port Washington WI- Port Washington to North Point Light WI- North Point Light to Wind Point WI- Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL- 303 AM CST Mon Feb 25 2019 ...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY... ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING... The Heavy Freezing Spray Warning is now in effect until noon CST Tuesday. * WINDS: West to northwest gales to 35 knots early this morning, then 15 to 25 knots this morning, decreasing to 10 to 15 knots this afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory will be needed for this morning. * WAVES: 3 to 5 feet early this morning, much higher toward and over the open waters, subsiding to around 1 foot this afternoon. * FREEZING SPRAY: The combination of gusty winds, falling temperatures and high waves will result in heavy freezing spray accumulation on vessels into Tuesday morning. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Heavy Freezing Spray Warning means heavy freezing spray is expected to rapidly accumulate on vessels. These conditions can be extremely hazardous to navigation. It is recommended that mariners not trained to operate in these conditions or vessels not properly equipped to do so...remain in port or avoid the warning area. A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or occuring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions. && $$ Wood www.weather.gov/mkx
124 WHUS73 KMKX 251016 MWWMKX URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 416 AM CST Mon Feb 25 2019 ...Gusty Winds Into Today... ...Heavy Freezing Spray Continues Into Tuesday Morning... LMZ643>646-251830- /O.EXP.KMKX.GL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-190225T1000Z/ /O.NEW.KMKX.SC.Y.0019.190225T1016Z-190225T1600Z/ /O.CON.KMKX.UP.W.0006.000000T0000Z-190226T1800Z/ Sheboygan to Port Washington WI- Port Washington to North Point Light WI- North Point Light to Wind Point WI- Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL- 416 AM CST Mon Feb 25 2019 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING... ...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY... ...GALE WARNING HAS EXPIRED... The National Weather Service in Milwaukee/Sullivan has issued a Small Craft Advisory...which is in effect until 10 AM CST this morning. The Gale Warning is no longer in effect. * WINDS: West to northwest winds 15 to 25 knots this morning, with some gusts to 30 knots, decreasing to 10 to 15 knots this afternoon. * WAVES: 3 to 5 feet early this morning, much higher toward and over the open waters, subsiding to around 1 foot this afternoon. * FREEZING SPRAY: The combination of gusty winds, falling temperatures and high waves will result in heavy freezing spray accumulation on vessels into Tuesday morning. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Heavy Freezing Spray Warning means heavy freezing spray is expected to rapidly accumulate on vessels. These conditions can be extremely hazardous to navigation. It is recommended that mariners not trained to operate in these conditions or vessels not properly equipped to do so...remain in port or avoid the waring area. A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 21 to 33 knots are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions. && $$ LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868- 870-872-874-876-878-251830- /O.CON.KMKX.GL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-190225T1200Z/ /O.CON.KMKX.UP.W.0006.000000T0000Z-190226T1800Z/ Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to mid-line of lake.- Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South Fox Island 5NM offshore- Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to mid lake- Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM offshore to mid lake- Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid lake- Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- 416 AM CST Mon Feb 25 2019 ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING... ...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY... * WINDS: West to northwest gales to 35 knots early this morning. then 15 to 25 knots this morning into this afternoon. * WAVES: Waves 10 to 14 ft occasionally to 18 ft subsiding to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft today. * FREEZING SPRAY: The combination of gusty winds, falling temperatures and high waves will result in heavy freezing spray accumulation on vessels into Tuesday morning. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Heavy Freezing Spray Warning means heavy freezing spray is expected to rapidly accumulate on vessels. These conditions can be extremely hazardous to navigation. It is recommended that mariners not trained to operate in these conditions or vessels not properly equipped to do so...remain in port or avoid the warning area. A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or occuring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions. && $$ Wood www.weather.gov/mkx
514 WHUS73 KMKX 251212 MWWMKX URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 612 AM CST Mon Feb 25 2019 ...Gusty Winds Into Today... ...Heavy Freezing Spray Continues Into Tuesday Morning... LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868- 870-872-874-876-878-252015- /O.EXP.KMKX.GL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-190225T1200Z/ /O.CON.KMKX.UP.W.0006.000000T0000Z-190226T1800Z/ Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to mid-line of lake.- Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South Fox Island 5NM offshore- Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to mid lake- Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM offshore to mid lake- Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid lake- Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- 612 AM CST Mon Feb 25 2019 ...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY... ...GALE WARNING HAS EXPIRED... The Gale Warning is no longer in effect. * WINDS: West to northwest winds to 30 knots this morning, then 15 to 25 knots later this morning into this afternoon. * WAVES: Waves 10 to 14 ft occasionally to 18 ft subsiding to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft today. * FREEZING SPRAY: The combination of gusty winds, falling temperatures and high waves will result in heavy freezing spray accumulation on vessels into Tuesday morning. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Heavy Freezing Spray Warning means heavy freezing spray is expected to rapidly accumulate on vessels. These conditions can be extremely hazardous to navigation. It is recommended that mariners not trained to operate in these conditions or vessels not properly equipped to do so...remain in port or avoid the warning area. && $$ LMZ643>646-252015- /O.CON.KMKX.UP.W.0006.000000T0000Z-190226T1800Z/ /O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-190225T1600Z/ Sheboygan to Port Washington WI- Port Washington to North Point Light WI- North Point Light to Wind Point WI- Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL- 612 AM CST Mon Feb 25 2019 ...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY... ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING... * WINDS: West to northwest winds 15 to 25 knots this morning, with some gusts to 30 knots, decreasing to 10 to 15 knots this afternoon. * WAVES: 3 to 5 feet early this morning, much higher toward and over the open waters, subsiding to around 1 foot this afternoon. * FREEZING SPRAY: The combination of gusty winds, falling temperatures and high waves will result in heavy freezing spray accumulation on vessels into Tuesday morning. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Heavy Freezing Spray Warning means heavy freezing spray is expected to rapidly accumulate on vessels. These conditions can be extremely hazardous to navigation. It is recommended that mariners not trained to operate in these conditions or vessels not properly equipped to do so...remain in port or avoid the waring area. A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 21 to 33 knots are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions. && $$ Wood www.weather.gov/mkx
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this gale warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Milwaukee, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Feb 24, 5:28 PM CST, 3 hours 9 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Feb 24, 5:28 PM CST, 3 hours 9 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
528 PM CST Sun Feb 24 2019
.UPDATE...
Winds have probably reached their peak at this point, as the
strongest pressure rises are beginning to lift off to our
northeast. Nonetheless, winds will remain very gusty for a few
more hours, with frequent 40-50 MPH gusts. Will continue the High
Wind Warning for now, though it's possible we may be able to
cancel an hour or two early.
&&
.AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...
Winds will remain very gusty early this evening, with 35-40 knot
gusts expected. Winds will slowly diminish in intensity later this
evening and overnight, as high pressure builds into the area.
Scattered clouds early this evening will clear with time, with
just passing high clouds expected overnight. A mid level cloud
deck will appear tomorrow afternoon, but conditions should remain
VFR through 00Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 345 PM CST SUN FEB 24 2019)
SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...Forecast Confidence is High.
Flurries through the day due to deep mixing into the dendrite growth
zone. The clouds are thin with some pockets of clearing in the
south, which is aiding in mixing. So wind advisory looks on track
with gusts to 50 kts (58mph) into early evening. Highest gusts will
be in the east. Winds will slowly diminish overnight but will still
gust around 30 mph. Lighter winds are expected after sunrise Monday.
The low will pull away this evening with mid level ridging pushing
into the area. Subsidence with the left entrance region of an upper
jet will help dry out the atmosphere with clear skies expected over
night. Northwest flow will bring colder temperatures to the region.
There will be a light northwest breeze as high pressure drops into
the northern plains. Went ahead with a wind chill advisory for
Monday morning for all but the 3 southeast counties. Models are in
good agreement with low temperatures 0 to 7 below. With the gusty
winds we are looking at wind chill values down to -20 to -25 Monday
morning, except a tad warmer in the far southeast where temperatures
won't be quite as low.
Highs will only be in the single digits to low teens on Monday. It
will start out sunny then clouds will increase later Monday. Some
models are showing light precip but don't have much confidence due
to lack of forcing and dry air to overcome in the low levels. There
is a slightly better chance for some light snow for the far south
Monday night with weak warm air advection and low level
frontogenesis. Any accumulation would be very light.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...Forecast Confidence is Medium.
Increasing low level winds on Tuesday ahead of a weak mid-level trof
moving across the northern Plains will usher slightly warmer low
level air into the region. The low level jet is expected to
increase to 30 to 40 kts as it passes across southern WI Tuesday
night. The tightening baroclinic zone associated with the warm air
surge settles over southern WI and northern IL during the period. In
addition, column moisture increases to around 0.5 inch toward the IL
border. This nearby baroclinic zone and increasing advection may
bring -sn to southern WI Tuesday afternoon, but the favored period
is Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Condensation pressure
deficits on the 290 theta surface decrease to less than 10mb during
this period with pulses of stronger omega. Also, the mixing ratio
reaches 3 to 4g/kg for a time Tuesday night. Although most of the
lift is warm air advection related, most short term guidance does
carry a weak mid-level wave across southern WI overnight, in brisk
zonal steering winds.
One other concern is that the low level winds begin to increase from
the east to southeast on Tuesday and peak Tuesday night into early
Wednesday. Delta-T north of Milwaukee remains in the 10 to 13
degree range, while from Milwaukee south, the Delta-t drops to less
than 10 degrees. Low level winds increase to 15 to 25 kts increasing
the convergence along the lakeshore. The combination of low level
convergence and delta-t should add some lake enhancement to the
synoptic lift in lakeshore areas, especially from Milwaukee north.
Model certainty average QPF across the CWA around 0.17, with the
lightest amounts in the southwest CWA. However due to lake
enhancement, beefed up QPF and resultant snowfall in the eastern
areas, north of Milwaukee. Hence forecast QPF above the median for
short term guidance, but less than the 75th percentile. Using Snow-
liquid ratio's slightly lower than Superblend guidance, have
snowfall in the 1 to 2 inch range in the southwest CWA, to 3 to 5
inches in the northeast CWA. The light snow should linger in the
east into Wednesday morning before a sharpening low pressure
trof moves through the area, switching winds to the west.
LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...Forecast Confidence is Medium.
This period should start out on the quiet side as the light snow
from the Wednesday event should be concluded by the evening. A more
zonal steering flow should sweep short wave high pressure across the
area. However the quiet conditions will be short-lived as a weak
mid-level short wave may bring another round of light snow to the
area on Thursday. Meanwhile, upstream a stationary area of low
pressure off the Pacific Northwest will get nudged eastward into the
Plains Thursday night and Friday by a sharpening low pressure system
sagging south across southern Canada. Medium range guidance is in
reasonable agreement through early Friday. After then, guidance
diverges with the latest GEM showing a lack of phasing and a
flatter, weaker trof moving across the upper midwest early in the
weekend. GFS and ECMWF however show phasing of Canadian trof and
piece of energy in the central Plains and resulting cyclogenesis
occurring somewhere from the central MS Valley region to the western
Great Lakes. The last several GFS deterministic runs have been
trending farther east with the low and resultant axis of heaviest
QPF, while the ECMWF has been trending farther west. Most of the
GFS ensemble members take a surface low track from around St. Louis
into western Lower Michigan Friday night which is favorable for more
significant snow across southern WI followed by a period of gusty
winds. However the ensemble standard deviation is quite large just
to the northwest of this main track so considerable uncertainty with
this systems impact on southern WI continues.
Hence the unsettled conditions to continue through next weekend,
with colder than normal temperatures continuing as well.
AVIATION(21Z TAFS)...
West wind of 25 to 35 knots with gusts of 40 to 50kts will continue
into early evening. Highest gusts will be in the east and southwest
portions of the state. There will be flurries and blowing snow at
times. Wind gusts will be around 25 to 35 knots later tonight into
Monday morning and winds at 2000 ft will be 40-45 knots out of the
west northwest. Gustiness will diminish around sunrise and winds
Monday afternoon will be 15 knots or less.
VFR conditions are expected this evening and through Monday. There
is some uncertainty on the timing and it may not be until late
evening. Mid level clouds will increase later Monday and low clouds
will move in west to east Monday evening. There is a slight chance
for light snow on Monday.
MARINE...
Will continue Storm Warning into the early evening. Wind gusts will
linger at Gale levels until late tonight or early Monday. Much
colder air spilling across the lake tonight will result in an
increased chance for heavy freezing spray. Hence status quo for
ongoing marine headlines.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...High Wind Warning until 9 PM CST this evening for WIZ046-047-051-
052-056>060-062>072.
Wind Chill Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CST Monday for WIZ046-047-
051-052-056>060-062>065-067>070.
LM...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until noon CST Monday for LMZ080-
261-362-364-366-563-565-567-643>646-669-671-673-675-777-779-
868-870-872-874-876-878.
Storm Warning until 9 PM CST this evening for LMZ080-261-362-364-
366-563-565-567-643>646-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-870-872-
874-876-878.
&&
Update...Boxell
Tonight/Monday and Aviation/Marine...Boxell
Monday Night through Sunday...99Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 24, 3:16 PM CST, 5 hours 21 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 316 PM CST Sun Feb 24 2019 WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-252130- Marquette-Green Lake-Fond Du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge- Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee- Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha- 316 PM CST Sun Feb 24 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin. .DAY ONE...Tonight Very windy conditions will continue into the evening. Wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph are expected. A High Wind Warning remains in effect into this evening. The strong winds will cause patchy blowing snow and visibility restrictions, especially in open and rural areas, north and west of Madison, where fresh snow of 1 to 3 inches occurred Saturday night and early Sunday. Wind chills are expected to drop to 20 to 25 degrees below zero later tonight. A Wind Chill Advisory goes into effect at 3 am for south central, east central and most of southeast Wisconsin. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Sunday The Wind Chill Advisory will remain in effect until 9 am CST Monday morning. Accumulating snow is looking likely on Tuesday and Tuesday night. At this time, anywhere between 1 and 5 inches is expected, with the highest accumulations from Racine and Milwaukee north to West Bend, Port Washington, Sheboygan and Fond du Lac. Another round of accumulating snow is possible next Friday night and Saturday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed, however your snow and wind reports are appreciated. LMZ643>646-252130- Sheboygan to Port Washington WI- Port Washington to North Point Light WI- North Point Light to Wind Point WI- Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL- 316 PM CST Sun Feb 24 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters from Sheboygan Wisconsin to Winthrop Harbor Illinois. .DAY ONE...Tonight West to northwest storm force wind gusts of 50 to 55 knots will continue through the early evening. The winds will diminish to gales later this evening and tonight. A heavy freezing spray warning goes into effect this evening as much colder temperatures settle over the lake. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Sunday Lingering wind gusts to 25 knots and Small Craft Advisory conditions in ice free areas may persist into Monday morning. West to northwest winds will continue to gradually diminish Monday morning. A heavy freezing spray warning will remain in effect until noon Monday. The threat for heavy freezing spray will continue into Tuesday. Winds may reach Gale levels next weekend when another low pressure area potentially moves across the Great Lakes. LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868- 870-872-874-876-878-252130- Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to mid-line of lake.- Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South Fox Island 5NM offshore- Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to mid lake- Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM offshore to mid lake- Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid lake- Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- 316 PM CST Sun Feb 24 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the open waters of Lake Michigan. .DAY ONE...Tonight West to northwest storm force wind gusts of 50 to 55 knots will continue through the early evening. The winds will diminish to gales later this evening and tonight. A heavy freezing spray warning goes into effect this evening as much colder temperatures settle over the lake. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Sunday West to northwest winds will continue to gradually diminish Monday morning. A heavy freezing spray warning will remain in effect until noon Monday. The threat for heavy freezing spray will continue into Tuesday. Winds may reach Gale levels next weekend when another low pressure area potentially moves across the Great Lakes. www.weather.gov/mkx Kavinsky
In the hours before
Local storm report, Feb 24, 2:43 PM CST, 5 hours 54 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
243 PM CST SUN FEB 24 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0241 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 SE GERMANTOWN 43.23N 88.11W
02/24/2019 WASHINGTON WI PUBLIC
HARDWOOD TREE APPROXIMATELY 18 INCHES IN
DIAMETER SNAPPED OFF IN PARK. WIND GUSTS
FREQUENTLY 45 TO 55 MPH.
&&
MBKLocal storm report, Feb 24, 3:17 PM CST, 5 hours 20 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
317 PM CST SUN FEB 24 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0216 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 WSW SAINT FRANCIS 42.96N 87.90W
02/24/2019 M58 MPH MILWAUKEE WI ASOS
MEASURED AT MKE.
&&Local storm report, Feb 24, 6:46 PM CST, 1 hour 51 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
646 PM CST SUN FEB 24 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0509 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 WSW SAINT FRANCIS 42.96N 87.91W
02/24/2019 M63 MPH MILWAUKEE WI ASOS
MEASURED AT MKE.
&&The office that day
Everything else NWS Milwaukee, WI issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 4:16 AM CST | Small Craft Advisory | MKX | 6 hr |
Nearby
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.