Frost Advisory 2, NWS Milwaukee, WI

448 
WWUS73 KMKX 130834
NPWMKX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
334 AM CDT Mon May 13 2019

...AREAS OF FROST THROUGH EARLY MORNING...

.Clearing skies and light winds are causing temperatures to dip 
into the middle 30s across portions of south central into east 
central Wisconsin this morning. Expect areas of frost to develop.

WIZ052-063-064-131300-
/O.EXA.KMKX.FR.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-190513T1300Z/
Sheboygan-Dane-Jefferson-
Including the cities of Plymouth, Sheboygan Falls, Howards Grove,
Oostburg, Madison, Watertown, Fort Atkinson, and Jefferson
334 AM CDT Mon May 13 2019

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING...

The National Weather Service in Milwaukee/Sullivan has issued a
Frost Advisory...which is in effect until 8 AM CDT this morning. 

* TEMPERATURE...Middle 30s.

* IMPACTS...Areas of frost may damage unprotected newly planted 
  sensitive plants and flowers. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Frost Advisory means that areas of frost to widespread frost is
expected. Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left
uncovered.

&&

$$

WIZ046-047-051-056>059-131300-
/O.CON.KMKX.FR.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-190513T1300Z/
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond Du Lac-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-Washington-
Including the cities of Montello, Westfield, Oxford, Neshkoro, 
Endeavor, Berlin, Princeton, Markesan, Fond Du Lac, Baraboo, 
Reedsburg, Prairie Du Sac, Sauk City, Portage, Columbus, 
Lake Wisconsin, Lodi, Beaver Dam, Waupun, Mayville, West Bend, 
Germantown, and Hartford
334 AM CDT Mon May 13 2019

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING...

a Frost Advisory remains in effect until 8 AM CDT this morning. 

* TEMPERATURE...Middle 30s.

* IMPACTS...Areas of frost may damage unprotected newly planted 
  sensitive plants and flowers. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Frost Advisory means that areas of frost to widespread frost is
expected. Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left
uncovered.

&&

$$

RAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
713 PM CDT Sun May 12 2019

.UPDATE...Upper low moving slowly east across northern Illinois
spreading scattered -shra across the border into far southeast WI.
These light showers should continue for several hours before the
weak lift moves off to the east.

Otherwise, the main overnight concern is cloud cover and
resultant temperatures. Firstly, 925H temps expected to be 2-3
degrees C warmer than last night, generally in the 5-7C range.
Lingering weakly cyclonic flow in the low to mid levels and a
thermal trof should help to keep mid-high level clouds over the
eastern CWA for most of the night. Western and central CWA may see
a bit more clearing later tonight. Latest vsbl imagery showing
clouds thinning over western CWA from Fond du Lac and Green Lake
counties southwest, with mostly sct-bkn mid- high clouds upstream
over northeast WI. 00Z temperatures are within several degrees of
temperatures 24 hours ago. For now, thinking temps in the central
and west will fall into the 35 to 39 degree range most areas with
the potential for patchy frost to areas of frost late tonight.
Will see how clouds change and temps respond next several hours,
but again a frost advisory may be needed for some central
counties.

&&

.AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...VFR conditions are expected for the majority
of the forecast period. Ceilings may lower to near MVFR in the far
southeast this evening associated with scattered light showers.
Otherwise, partial clearing in central and western CWA may result
in patchy fog and frost late tonight into early Monday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 229 PM CDT Sun May 12 2019)

SHORT TERM...

Rest of this Afternoon through Tomorrow...Forecast Confidence is
High...

Weak low pressure continues to make its way through the region.
We have chances for showers, primarily along the WI/IL border,
with the best chances at this point in the far southeast. The
primary forcing for this system is the upper level low producing
some decent PVA, however drier air to the north continues to
limit overall precipitation chances in southern WI. This should
keep much of southern WI dry through the afternoon and evening.

High pressure will start to push is this evening and overnight
bringing dry and mostly clear conditions to southern WI on Monday
with light winds out of the north.

LONG TERM...

Monday Night through Wednesday Night...Forecast Confidence
High...

Another cool and quiet night is expected Monday night, as high
pressure moves through the area. Lows will fall into the upper 30s
and low 40s in many spots, though western parts of the area may
stay a bit warmer--mid 40s--as southerly return flow will kick in
before sunrise. A few areas of patchy frost will again be
possible, especially over the eastern half of the forecast area.

Temperatures will warm nicely into the upper 60s on Tuesday, with
breezy south to southwest winds across the region. A weak frontal
boundary will pass through the area Tuesday night and early
Wednesday, bringing a chance for showers to the area. Couldn't
rule out a few rumbles of thunder with this, but overall,
instability looks quite weak.

Rain chances should end by Wednesday morning.  Rising heights
aloft will help temperatures warm into the low 70s, despite the
earlier frontal passage.

Thursday through next Sunday...Forecast Confidence Low to
Moderate...

A stronger front then looks to pass through the area on Thursday.
More widespread thunderstorm activity will be possible with this
front compared to Tuesday night, including some chances for
stronger thunderstorms. Timing will be key, with a later frontal
passage (i.e., Thursday evening) increasing thunderstorm
potential, while an earlier passage would result in lower chances.
There is still a fair amount of uncertainty with these details, so
additional fine tuning will be necessary in the coming days.

Surface high pressure is expected to nose into the Great Lakes
late in the week, before a fairly strong warm front takes shape
somewhere across the region. There's a lot of uncertainty with
where exactly this boundary will set up, leading to wide range in
potential temperature solutions. Temperatures south of the front
will likely be quite warm, with upper 70s/low 80s not out of the
question. North of front, 50s are more likely. Needless to say,
there could be quite the gradient across the region. With the
front in the area, rain chances will be on the increase as well.

AVIATION(21Z TAF Update)...

Generally, VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period,
however there is a slight chance for a few hours of MVFR CIGS this
evening, primarily toward far southeastern WI. In addition, this
evening will be the best chances for a rain shower in the
southeast, although chances look slim. This evening and overnight
clouds will begin to scatter as high pressure starts to push in
from the west. This will allow for a mostly clear day Monday
through much of Tuesday before another weak low pressure system
pushes in Tuesday afternoon.

MARINE...

Northerly flow will continue across the lake tonight and Monday.
Winds will become light and variable Monday night and early
Tuesday as high pressure moves through the region. Later Tuesday
and Tuesday night, winds will become southerly ahead of a weak
cold front, which will pass through the area late Tuesday night
and early Wednesday.

Somewhat stronger southerly flow is then expected Thursday ahead
of another cold front. Depending on timing, some higher moisture
air may build into the southern portion of the lake, bringing with
it a risk for fog as it moves over the cold lake water.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

Update...MBK
Tonight/Monday and Aviation/Marine...Boxell
Monday Night through Sunday...ARK

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
721 PM CDT Sun May 12 2019

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-140030-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond Du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
721 PM CDT Sun May 12 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Partial overnight clearing and light winds will once again allow
patchy frost to develop over portions of the area away from Lake
Michigan late tonight. The most favored area for frost development
would be from West Bend to Fond du Lac west to Reedsburg,
Portage, Montello and Berlin.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Sunday

There is a chance of thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and
Thursday evening, and again Saturday and Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

LMZ643>646-140030-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
721 PM CDT Sun May 12 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters from
Sheboygan Wisconsin to Winthrop Harbor Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Sunday

There is a chance of thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and
Thursday evening, and again Saturday afternoon and Sunday.

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-140030-
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
721 PM CDT Sun May 12 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the open waters of Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Sunday

There is a chance of thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and
Thursday evening, and again Saturday afternoon and Sunday.

www.weather.gov/mkx

Kavinsky