Flash Flood Watch 3, NWS Milwaukee, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
320 AM CDT SAT SEP 14 2019

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY - Confidence...Medium.

Surface high to our south with anticyclonic influence into WI will
shift into the OH Valley. Lingering influence of low level thermal
trough will be displaced eastward with waa regime starting to evolve
this afternoon with the return flow. Mid level flow remains westerly
with any waves focusing precip to our west or northwest later in the
day. Southwest winds will set up and bring temperatures into the
low/mid 70s with a good deal of sunshine.

TONIGHT - Confidence...Medium

Low pressure will be organizing to our west. There will be a decent
push of pwats into the area with increasing waa advection.
The LLJ orientation will be favorable for a time with convection
evolving across the area. By and large, except for the Canadian
solution, models are transient in nature with the handling of precip
trends. Decent MUCAPE noted. MBE velocities are showing a
progressive scenario. Given recent wet pattern we are in a
precarious scenario with added rainfall. WPC has higher qpf values
to our west and southwest. Having said that, given the past rains
and coord with LOT/DVN/ARX, will go ahead and issue a FAA for parts
of the southwest cwa.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY - Confidence...Medium.

Low level jet and stronger synoptic forcing will be moving rapidly
off to the east late tonight into early Sunday.  Hence will only
keep a small chance for showers/storms in the east during the
morning with dry conditions expected most of the day.  Cloud cover
may be slower to depart the area until later in the day into the
evening due to lingering weak low pressure trof in the area. With no
significant low level dry air push and expected gradual clearing
skies, areas of fog are expected to develop Sunday night and linger
into Monday morning across the area.  The fog may become dense in
some areas for several hours. The fog should burn off Monday morning
with partly cloudy conditions for the afternoon and temperatures
warming into the mid 70s to lower 80s, with a developing lake breeze
keeping temps a little cooler by the lake. Will hold off on hitting
the fog harder for now due to possible clouds lingering a bit longer
into Sunday night.

.LONG TERM...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY - Forecast Confidence...High trending
Low.

Medium range guidance in good agreement at the start of the period
with high amplitude ridge maintaining its presence from the western
Great Lakes south to the Gulf.  During this time, "Humberto" will
continue to move across the western Atlantic off the southeast
CONUS.  The slow movement of this system is causing inconsistencies
upstream over the central CONUS in the later periods.  The GFS
flattens the ridging across the upper midwest by mid-week as a
vigorous short wave trof moves from the northern Rockies into south
central Canada.  Meanwhile, the ECMWF holds the ridge across the
western Great Lakes for an additional 24 hour period, through
Wednesday.  GEM is a blend of the two solutions.  WPC blended fields
ignoring the GFS with a drier and warmer solution persisting for
much of the week across southern WI and prefer this solution as
well. Due to the uncertainties and model blend, will carry low pops
for thunder in the later periods but most of the period will likely
be dry. Temps look to remain above normal for much of the period due
to milder south breezes.

&&

.AVIATION(09Z TAF UPDATE)...High pressure to our south ridging
through WI will shift to the east today setting up a return
southerly airflow. VFR conditions are expected. A surge of moisture
will bring shra/tsra to the area overnight into early Sunday. This
could result in some lower ceilings and localized lower vsbys in any
heavy downpours.

&&

.MARINE...With winds showing a decreasing tendency and lack of any
gale reports will go ahead and cancel the gale warning an hour
early. Overall, high pressure ridging into WI from the south of the
state will shift into the Ohio Valley. This will set up a return
southerly flow. As low pressure moves through the area later tonight
into Sunday we may see small craft conditions being met for the
nearshore area especially in the stronger NAM solution were to come
to fruition.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Flash Flood Watch from this evening through Sunday morning for
     WIZ056-062-067-068.
LM...None.

TODAY AND TONIGHT/AVIATION/MARINE...PC
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MBK

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