Special Weather Statement, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
345 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain well offshore as general troughing
persists across the Southeast, bringing unsettled weather
through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Through Tonight/...
As of 330 PM Thu...Sct thunderstorms developed due to sfc
heating, weak shortwave activity streaming through, and local
sea/sound breeze convergence. This activity, being diurnally
driven, will tend to weaken towards evening, with mainly dry
conditions tonight. Areas that receive rain will be more prone
to patchy fg development, and this is included in the fcst late
tonight. Lows warm and muggy, near 70 inland to mid 70s coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
As of 330 PM Thu...Similar story for Fri with respect to sct
convective development once again. There will be some marginal
shear in place with decent H50 wrly flow, and cannot rule out a
stronger storm or two producing localized flooding, downburst
wind gusts, and frequent lightning. With general E to SE light
sfc flow, focus will once again be along local sea and sound
breezes, so best covg inland from the immediate coast. High
temps will be near climo, in the 85-90 degree range most
locales.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 310 AM Thursday...The long-awaited pattern shift will get
underway in earnest Friday into early next week as a longwave
trough lingers over the eastern United States for the next
several days. Deep moisture from the Gulf will be tapped leading
to an increase in precipitable water values. The sea breeze will
act as the main focus on Friday with most of the convection
occurring inland. Pooling of deeper moisture closer to the coast
will lead to widespread showers/tstms Saturday into Saturday
night and have the highest PoPs during this period. Less
coverage of convection expected Sunday through the middle of
next week, but PoPs will still be in the high chance range given
the linger upper trough and moisture feed into our region.
Temperatures will remain fairly close to normal through the
period, with mostly mid/upper 80s for highs and low/mid 70s for
lows.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term /through 18Z Fri/...
As of 115 PM Thursday...Widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms are beginning to pop around the area and may bring
with it some brief sub- VFR restrictions for any directly
impacted site. Models continue to suggest some patchy fog/low
stratus in the western portions of the area. Some MVFR
conditions were added for the pre-dawn hours tomorrow morning to
select sites.

As of 150 AM Thursday...VFR conditions currently prevail at all
terminals and should remain so for most of tonight, with some
lower clouds associated with decaying convection plaguing PGV
and possibly EWN in the near term although these should be
scattered in nature. Ample low level moisture is present for fog
although limiting factor is high cirrus which is prevailing
over a larger area than previously expected. Uncertainty is high
regarding fog formation but opted to put all site with TEMPO
fog in the early morning hours, although the best candidates for
more persistent low visibilities is PGV and EWN. VFR conditions
resume shortly after sunrise and prevail through Thursday with
widely scattered convection forecaster after midday.

Long Term /Friday through Monday/...
As of 310 AM Thursday...Unsettled weather is expected for much
of the extended period as deep moisture coupled with an upper
level trough will lead to scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms. The best chances of precipitation will be Friday
and Saturday, with lesser coverage Sunday and Monday. Sub-VFR
conditions are likely in the showers and storms. Areas that
receive daytime precipitation may also experience patchy
morning fog.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Today and Tonight/...
As of 345 PM Thu...Seas continue around 2 ft today with mix of
wind wave and long period swells. Good boating conditions will
continue with high pressure well offshore and weak gradient in
place. Winds will continue to be light, generally 5-10 kt most
areas. The winds will swing around to light NE early Friday,
then gradually veer E to SE during the day but remaining on the
light side.

Long Term /Friday and Monday/...
As of 315 AM Thursday...Quiet marine conditions should continue
through the extended period. SE/S flow should dominate through
Saturday. A wavy front in the area may produce periods of N/NE
winds, especially over the northern waters Sunday and Monday,
but winds speeds throughout the period should remain aob 15
knots with at 2-3 feet, as the pressure gradient across eastern
NC waters remains light.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/ML
MARINE...CTC/TL

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