Special Weather Statement, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
659 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach the area tonight then move offshore
early Saturday. High pressure will build into the region early
next week and continue through mid week. A cold front will move
through Wednesday night or Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 7 pm Friday...No changes to current zones with severe
weather moving through the forecst area. Severe risk will cont
thru evening then grad move off the OBX later tonight.

With a 50+ low lvl knot jet impacting the region this evening
and tonight, strong gusty winds will mix down in developing
storms along a squall line. Latest high res mdls shows
bkn band of storms impacting inland areas thru about midnight
with activity moving off the OBX later tonight. All modes of
severe weather will be possible along the squall line with
damaging winds the greatest threat, however isolated tornadoes
wl be poss in any discrete cells that form ahead of the main
line and in bowing segments along the line. Heavy downpours will
also accompany the line, but given the rather fast storm motion
not looking for significant flooding. With strong winds mixing
to the surface, even outside convection, a High Wind Warning
remains in effect along the Outer Banks and Eastern Carteret
County with gusts to 60 mph. A Wind Advisory is in effect for
the remainder coastal and Soundside areas, where gusts may
approach 50 mph. PoPs will be likely to categorical through
04-06z, then quickly diminish from west to east by the early
morning hours. Mild lows tonight with upper 50s inland to mid
60s Outer Banks.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM Friday...The cold front will be near the Outer
Banks by sunrise Saturday, and move well offshore during the
morning. Lingering shra imd cst will quickly move offshore. The
stacked low lifting across the Great Lakes will remain in
control of our weather, bringing atypical post frontal
southwesterly flow and thus a lack of the CAA we typically see
behind FROPAs. Subsidence aloft will bring predominantly settled
conditions on Sat despite the lack of significant low level
airmass change. With PC to msunny skies expect highs mostly in
the lower 70s with breezy SSW winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 4 AM Fri...Dry weather is forecast to prevail through
Tuesday. A cold front will bring a chance for showers or storms
mid week.

Saturday Night and Sunday...On Sunday, as the the upper low
aloft rotates east through VA has enough strong lift associated
with it to not completely discount a rogue iso shower or two,
and kept slgt chc PoPs to account for this, with best chance
across nrn zones in vcnty of the upper low. Any showers will end
quickly by sunset as activity will be diurnally driven, and
temps cool to below climo with dry air mass moving in behind the
low. Temps drop into the mid/upr 40s (low/mid 50s beaches).
Highs Sunday will be seasonably mild, with readings generally
in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Monday through Tuesday...Subtropical high pressure is expected
to ridge into the area early next week, bringing very pleasant
and rain- free conditions with temps moderating each day. Highs
near climo on Mon with low/mid 70s, and above climo by Tue with
mid 70s to low 80s.

Wednesday through Thursday...A backdoor cold front will approach
and move through the region by late Wed or early Thur, being
forced by low amplitude shortwave moving through nrn stream.
This feature could be a focal point for showers and storms, as
at least marginal instability will be present with decent shear
in place, but with timing/evolution differences only going for
small chc pops at this time. Temperatures will be about 5 to 10
degrees above normal on Wed. By Thur, the front will push
through and temps cool back to near climo with high pres
building in.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term /through Sat/...
As of 7 pm Friday...Strong S winds gusting to around 30 kts at
times will cont into the evening. Main band of tsra will cross
the taf sites this evening with likely pds of sub VFR along with
threat of very strong wind gusts. Outside of convection expect
cont VFR to ocnl MVFR cigs. After squall line exits expect grad
lifting and decreasing clouds with VFR late tonight thru Sat.
SSW winds will again gust 20 to 25 kts Sat.

Long Term /Sat night through Tue/...
As of 4 AM Fri...More settled (VFR) conditions will gradually
ensue again on Saturday and dominate through early next week
behind the strong cold front moving through early Sat morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Tonight and Sat/...
As of 7 pm Friday...No changes with very hazardous winds/seas
next 12 to 24 hrs. Cont Storm warning Oregon Inlet to Cape
Lookout with Gales rest of wtrs.

S winds currently 20 to 30 kts will peak this evening ahead of
front as low lvl jet crosses. Expect winds to reach 30 to 40 kts
with outer central wtrs reaching 40 to 50 kts with some higher
gusts. These winds will lead to seas reaching 15+ feet of OBX
tonight. As the front moves offshore Sat expect SSW winds to
remain gusty at 15 to 25 kt. Seas will be slow to subside
reaching 7 to 11 ft later Sat.

Long Term /Sat night through Tue/...
As of 4 AM Fri... The cold front will cross the waters Saturday
morning, and while winds will decrease drastically from gale and
storm force, only slight improvement this weekend, as seas
remain elevated above 6 ft due in part to continued SW flow in
the 15-25 kt range. Good boating conditions finally return by
the beginning of the work week as high pres builds in.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 300 PM Friday...Strong southerly winds will build waves
in the surf zone from Hatteras Island S to 8+ ft later this
afternoon and continuing into Saturday. This rough surf will
likely lead to some beach erosion and poss local overwash. The
strong winds will bring minor increases in water levels over
the northern Pamlico Sound into the Roanoke/Croatan Sounds
region this evening and tonight. High Surf Advisories will
remain in effect. Wl cont to hold off on Coastal Flood Advisory
as this time as water levels rises will mainly be 1-2 feet and
will be short lived with a fast moving system.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Wind Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for NCZ047-081-203.
     Beach Hazards Statement through Saturday evening for NCZ195-
     196-199-203>205.
     High Surf Advisory until 9 PM EDT Saturday for NCZ195-196-199-
     204-205.
     Wind Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for NCZ195-199.
     High Wind Warning until 7 AM EDT Saturday for NCZ204-205.
     High Wind Warning until 5 AM EDT Saturday for NCZ196.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 5 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ131-136-137-230-
     231.
     Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ135.
     Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 5 AM EDT Saturday for
     AMZ152-154-156.
     Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ150.
     Gale Warning until 5 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ158.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...HSA/RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...HSA/CTC/TL
MARINE...HSA/RF/CTC/TL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX

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