Severe Thunderstorm Warning 66, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
332 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the west tonight, and move
through the area Friday morning. High pressure will build in
from the north this weekend. More unsettled weather is likely
to return later next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 310 PM Thurs...A widespread severe weather event appears
likely this afternoon and into tonight, as confidence has
increased in severe weather parameters especially related to
damaging winds. The SPC has included all of Eastern NC in an
Enhanced Risk, and mentioned the possibility of a couple of
significant MCS type thunderstorm complexes forming. Timing for
storms appears fairly consistent across the high res models.
There will be some scattered convection across the area by late
this afternoon, and then further west a stronger area of
convection is expected to develop and congeal into an MCS by
early this evening, and move through Eastern NC by early
tonight. Drying out overnight.

Very hot conditions currently with temperatures in the mid 90s
inland, and heat indices 100 to 105, while temps are in the
upper 80s to low 90s closer to the coast with heat indices 95 to
100. Temperatures will cool quickly this evening, and then drop
into the low to mid 70s overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
As of 315 PM Thurs...With the upper level trough over the area
tomorrow, strong westerly winds are expected, with lowering
humidity through the day. Warm temps are still expected, and
with westerly winds even locations along the immediate coast
will reach the upper 80s to low 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 320 PM Thurs...A brief period of quiet weather is
expected behind the passing front Friday Night and Saturday as
weak high pressure ridges in from the north. Moisture creeps
back into the area by Sunday with mid-level ridging overhead.
Low chances of showers and thunderstorms are possible through
mid week.

Friday Night and Saturday...Reinforcing cold front will push
into the area Friday Night, as high pressure builds in from the
north. NW winds are expected Saturday, which will help keep
high temps down...upper 70s to mid 80s.

Saturday night through Wednesday...Difficult forecast follows to
start the week in regards to precip chances. Southerly flow and
increasing moisture advection is forecast late Saturday into
Sunday as the high reestablishes itself offshore. Isolated to
widely scattered convection is likely along the seabreeze each
afternoon. There are two disturbances that could flatten the
ridge and lead to slightly better coverage of showers and
thunderstorms, namely:

1. A convective system forecast to develop over the Central
Plains and ride the ridge into North Carolina from the
northwest, likely Saturday night into Sunday. With the high to
our northeast the better instability will be to our west, but it
is possible the Coastal Plain could destabilize enough to see
some convection.

2. A shortwave is forecast to lift across the central U.S.
during the beginning of the week, although its timing and
degree it will flatten the ridge is in question due to large
model spread.

The presence of the ridge, and the low confidence in the timing
and placement of these impulses, precludes any PoPs higher than
30% through Wednesday. Monday and Tuesday look to be the
warmest days with the ridge overhead with highs approaching the
mid 90s both days. Combined with oppressive dewpoints in the low
70s, heat indices will once again near 100 during this period.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term /through Tomorrow Afternoon/...
As of 325 PM Thurs...VFR conditions are expected through most
of the TAF period. A few hour period of MVFR conditions will be
possible late this afternoon into the evening as scattered to
widespread severe thunderstorms roll through the area. It should
be mostly clear for the rest of the night with winds turning to
the west behind the storms. Strong west winds will continue
Friday with some gusts 25-30 mph.

Long Term /Friday Night through Tuesday/...
As of 325 PM Thursday...Predominantly VFR conditions expected
Friday Night and Saturday with dry air filtering in behind the
front. A return to more unsettled weather Sunday and Monday
translate to chances for sub-VFR conditions in showers and
thunderstorms. Early morning fog/stratus is possible in areas
that receive daytime rainfall.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through Tomorrow Night/...
As of 330 PM Thurs...SCAs continue for the coastal waters and
Sounds, and have added the Albemarle Sound for strong westerly
winds expected tomorrow.

Winds are currently SW 20-25 kts, with gusts close to 30 kts
over the waters, and seas are 3-6 ft. Winds are expected to
continue out of the SW through tonight, and may strengthen for
some time this evening, with some gale force gusts possible over
the southern and central coastal waters. Then, winds shift to
the west tomorrow, but will continue to be somewhat strong,
20-25 kts. Winds then slowly decrease through the afternoon
hours and into tomorrow night. Seas are expected to build to
5-10 ft tonight, and then slowly subside through the day
tomorrow.

Long Term /Friday Night through Tuesday/...
As of 325 PM Thursday...Westerly winds of around 15-20 knots
behind a passing cold front will quickly diminish to 10-15 knots
as weak high pressure builds in from the north, eventually
becoming N at 10 knots or less Saturday. As high shifts offshore
winds are forecast to become S/SW at around 10-15 knots, with
the highest winds in the afternoon with increasing thermal
gradients.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195-
     196-204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT Friday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ231.
     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 2 PM EDT Friday for AMZ230.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Friday for AMZ152-154-156-
     158.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Friday for AMZ150.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SGK
SHORT TERM...SGK
LONG TERM...MS
AVIATION...SGK/MS
MARINE...BM/SGK/MS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
154 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2019

NCZ205-211800-
Hatteras Island-
154 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2019

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS...
...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FROM RODANTHE TO CAPE HATTERAS...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.
   Moderate Rip Current Risk.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into
tonight, with damaging wind gusts the main threat, but an isolated
tornado and large hail are also possible. Also, heat indices will
range from 100 to 105 degrees this afternoon.

   Beach Hazards Statement.
   Moderate Rip Current Risk.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ195-196-204-211800-
West Carteret-East Carteret-Ocracoke Island-
154 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2019

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into
tonight, with damaging wind gusts the main threat, but an isolated
tornado and large hail are also possible. Also, heat indices will
range from 100 to 105 degrees this afternoon.

   Beach Hazards Statement.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ045>047-080-081-092-094-193-194-198-203-211800-
Washington-Tyrrell-Mainland Dare-Beaufort-Mainland Hyde-Jones-
Pamlico-Northern Craven-Southern Craven-Inland Onslow-
Northern Outer Banks-
154 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into
tonight, with damaging wind gusts the main threat, but an isolated
tornado and large hail are also possible. Also, heat indices will
range from 100 to 105 degrees this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ199-211800-
Coastal Onslow-
154 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2019

...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Moderate Rip Current Risk.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into
tonight, with damaging wind gusts the main threat, but an isolated
tornado and large hail are also possible. Also, heat indices will
range from 100 to 105 degrees this afternoon.

   Moderate Rip Current Risk.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ029-044-079-090-091-211800-
Martin-Pitt-Greene-Duplin-Lenoir-
154 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2019

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 409 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into
tonight, with damaging wind gusts the main threat, but an isolated
tornado and large hail are also possible. Also, heat indices will
range from 100 to 105 degrees this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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