Severe Thunderstorm Warning 59, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
631 PM EDT Fri May 31 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front is expected to cross the area tonight and move offshore
early Saturday and gradually dissipate over the weekend. Another cold
front will cross early Monday. High pressure will build in through middle
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 625 PM Friday...Widespread severe weather outbreak
continues across eastern NC early this evening. There have been
numerous reports of large hail and some wind damage over the
past 3 or 4 hours and active severe storms continue over areas
mainly north of the Pamlico Sound as the more southern storms
have weakened. Current surface-based CAPEs remain in the
2000-3000 J/kg range early this evening and at least some threat
of severe weather will continue through late evening as the
Severe Thunderstorm Watch continues in effect until 11 pm. High
PoPs continue in the forecast until around midnight. Once the
convection ends, some slightly cooler air will be drawn into the
region with lows upper 60s northern CWA to lower 70s southern
CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
As of 240 PM Friday...Surface low will move along the front
offshore early Saturday and well to the north of the area by
late in the day. Residual moisture associated with some mid-
level shortwave energy rotating south through the region during
Saturday will lead to about a 30-40 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. The good news for Saturday is that
temperatures will be lower will dewpoints into the 60s. Highs
should generally be in the mid 80s over most of the CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 150 pm Fri...

Sat night through Monday...Modest height rises aloft occur
Sunday night as the low departs the area, but broad troughing
across the eastern US generally prevails. A cold front will
approach from the northwest Sunday, encouraged by a shortwave
passing well north of the area. Modest low level moisture in
pre-frontal west-southwesterly flow will limit precip chances,
though some low level moisture convergence immediately ahead of
a cold front justifies keeping low end chance POPs in the
forecast Sunday afternoon into evening. High pressure will begin
to build in immediately behind this front later Sunday.

Monday through Thursday...Increasingly zonal flow aloft
develops through the week. High pressure will build in Monday,
passing overhead Tuesday and offshore Wednesday. Mainly dry
conditions and close to seasonable temps dominate during this
time.

Late in the week, high pressure will shift offshore, allowing
low level moisture to increase, spelling a more summerlike
pattern with warm temps and the potential for afternoon
convection mainly along and ahead of the sea breeze.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term /through 00Z Sunday/...
As of 625 PM Friday...Widespread convection developed across the
region with some severe weather in the vicinity of the TAF
sites. The ongoing convection should wane by midnight with some
lower ceilings possible toward morning. Will keep ceilings at
the low-end VFR level, but some MVFR ceilings may briefly occur.
Conditions should be VFR through the day on Saturday.

Long Term /Sat night through Tue/
As of 150 pm Fri...VFR will prevail through the period. Isolated
convection possible Sunday afternoon, mainly at PGV and ISO,
otherwise dry throughout the area through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Tonight and Saturday/...
As of 630 PM Friday...Widespread strong to severe storms
continue over the waters early this evening. Strong convective
wind gusts of close to 50 knots and large hail have been
observed over the past few hours. Outside of convection, winds
should generally be 10-20 knots with seas 2-4 feet tonight, with
perhaps some 5-footers over the outer waters. As a front moves
offshore and a surface low tracks along the front and quickly
off to the northeast on Saturday, winds should become generally
N/NW/W at 15 knots or less with seas 2-4 feet.

Long Term /Sat night through Tue/
As of 150 pm Fri...A front will cross the waters late Sunday
night. High pressure will pass through early next week. Winds
generally 5-15 knots and seas 2-4 feet through the period. Winds
and seas will increase by midweek as the gradient tightens
ahead of the next front approaching from the west.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195-
     196-204-205.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...CTC/HSA/MS
MARINE...CTC/HSA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
822 PM EDT Fri May 31 2019

NCZ205-020030-
Hatteras Island-
822 PM EDT Fri May 31 2019

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 300 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...
...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement south of Cape Hatteras.
   Moderate Rip Current Risk north of Cape Hatteras.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms, some possibly severe, are
likely late this afternoon into this evening. Damaging wind gusts
and large hail will be the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.
   Moderate Rip Current Risk.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ195-196-204-020030-
West Carteret-East Carteret-Ocracoke Island-
822 PM EDT Fri May 31 2019

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 300 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms, some possibly severe, are
likely late this afternoon into this evening. Damaging wind gusts
and large hail will be the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ199-020030-
Coastal Onslow-
822 PM EDT Fri May 31 2019

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 300 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Moderate Rip Current Risk.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms, some possibly severe, are
likely late this afternoon into this evening. Damaging wind gusts
and large hail will be the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Moderate Rip Current Risk.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193-194-198-203-020030-
Martin-Pitt-Washington-Tyrrell-Mainland Dare-Greene-Beaufort-
Mainland Hyde-Duplin-Lenoir-Jones-Pamlico-Northern Craven-
Southern Craven-Inland Onslow-Northern Outer Banks-
822 PM EDT Fri May 31 2019

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 300 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms, some possibly severe, are
likely late this afternoon into this evening. Damaging wind gusts
and large hail will be the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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