Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
253 PM EDT Fri May 31 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front is expected to cross the area tonight and move offshore
early Saturday and gradually dissipate over the weekend. Another cold
front will cross early Monday. High pressure will build in through middle
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 240 PM Friday...Severe Weather outbreak now underway over
our CWA at mid-afternoon. Most of the initial reports have been
large hail given numerous high-reflectivity cores detected by
radar in the unstable environment with SBCapes as high as
3000-4000 J/kg. Strong gusty and damaging winds are also still
a possibility through late evening. The Severe Thunderstorm
Watch is in effect for the entire CWA through 11 pm given
continued instability and bulk shear values in excess of 40
knots. PoPs remain likely to categorical through midnight before
decreasing late tonight. Once the convection ends, some
slightly cooler air will be drawn into the region with lows
upper 60s northern CWA to lower 70s southern CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
As of 240 PM Friday...Surface low will move along the front
offshore early Saturday and well to the north of the area by
late in the day. Residual moisture associated with some mid-
level shortwave energy rotating south through the region during
Saturday will lead to about a 30-40 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. The good news for Saturday is that
temperatures will be lower will dewpoints into the 60s. Highs
should generally be in the mid 80s over most of the CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 150 pm Fri...

Sat night through Monday...Modest height rises aloft occur
Sunday night as the low departs the area, but broad troughing
across the eastern US generally prevails. A cold front will
approach from the northwest Sunday, encouraged by a shortwave
passing well north of the area. Modest low level moisture in
pre-frontal west-southwesterly flow will limit precip chances,
though some low level moisture convergence immediately ahead of
a cold front justifies keeping low end chance POPs in the
forecast Sunday afternoon into evening. High pressure will begin
to build in immediately behind this front later Sunday.

Monday through Thursday...Increasingly zonal flow aloft
develops through the week. High pressure will build in Monday,
passing overhead Tuesday and offshore Wednesday. Mainly dry
conditions and close to seasonable temps dominate during this
time.

Late in the week, high pressure will shift offshore, allowing
low level moisture to increase, spelling a more summerlike
pattern with warm temps and the potential for afternoon
convection mainly along and ahead of the sea breeze.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term /through this evening/...
As of 135 PM Fri...Scattered showers and thunderstorms
beginning to develop now along the southern coast and across the
northern coastal plain. Some storms could be strong to severe
with conditions deteriorating to IFR or worse with any direct
impacts. Gusty winds are also a concern especially later this
afternoon into the evening. Some possible MVFR ceilings are
possible behind the storms in the early morning with wet soils
and residual low-level moisture before improving to VFR by Sat
morning.

Long Term /Sat night through Tue/
As of 150 pm Fri...VFR will prevail through the period. Isolated
convection possible Sunday afternoon, mainly at PGV and ISO,
otherwise dry throughout the area through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Tonight and Saturday/...
As of 250 PM Friday...Active severe thunderstorms will impact
areas waters through this evening. Convective wind gusts of 48
knots have been reported at the Duck Pier in the past hour.
Outside of convection, winds should generally be 10-20 knots
with seas 2-5 feet tonight. As a front moves offshore and a
surface low tracks along the front and quickly off to the
northeast on Saturday, winds should become generally N/NW/W at
15 knots or less with seas 2-4 feet.

Long Term /Sat night through Tue/
As of 150 pm Fri...A front will cross the waters late Sunday
night. High pressure will pass through early next week. Winds
generally 5-15 knots and seas 2-4 feet through the period. Winds
and seas will increase by midweek as the gradient tightens
ahead of the next front approaching from the west.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195-
     196-204-205.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...HSA/MS
MARINE...CTC/HSA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
422 AM EDT Fri May 31 2019

NCZ205-010830-
Hatteras Island-
422 AM EDT Fri May 31 2019

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING SOUTH OF
CAPE HATTERAS...
...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING NORTH OF
CAPE HATTERAS...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.
   Moderate Rip Current Risk.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms, some possibly severe, are
likely late this afternoon into this evening. Damaging wind gusts
and large hail will be the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ195-196-204-010830-
West Carteret-East Carteret-Ocracoke Island-
422 AM EDT Fri May 31 2019

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms, some possibly severe, are
likely late this afternoon into this evening. Damaging wind gusts
and large hail will be the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ199-010830-
Coastal Onslow-
422 AM EDT Fri May 31 2019

...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Moderate Rip Current Risk.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms, some possibly severe, are
likely late this afternoon into this evening. Damaging wind gusts
and large hail will be the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193-194-198-203-010830-
Martin-Pitt-Washington-Tyrrell-Mainland Dare-Greene-Beaufort-
Mainland Hyde-Duplin-Lenoir-Jones-Pamlico-Northern Craven-
Southern Craven-Inland Onslow-Northern Outer Banks-
422 AM EDT Fri May 31 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms, some possibly severe, are
likely late this afternoon into this evening. Damaging wind gusts
and large hail will be the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
339 PM EDT FRI MAY 31 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0316 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NE PUNGO              35.66N 76.61W
05/31/2019                   BEAUFORT           NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN NEAR ROUTE 99 AND LOOP ROAD.

&&

HEDEN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
339 PM EDT Fri May 31 2019

NCZ044-079-091-193-312045-
Greene-Lenoir-Northern Craven-Pitt-
339 PM EDT Fri May 31 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT GREENE...NORTHERN LENOIR...
NORTHWESTERN CRAVEN AND SOUTH CENTRAL PITT COUNTIES...

At 339 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Goldsboro,
moving east at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Greenville, Kinston, Winterville, Ayden, La Grange, Grifton, Snow
Hill, Dawson, Ormondsville, Maury, Graingers, Institute, Jason,
Roundtree, Lizzie, Kinston Regional Jetport, Hookerton, Shine and
Fort Run VFD.

Seek Shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Strong winds are
capable of knocking down small trees and blowing around trash cans,
potted plants, lawn furniture and other light outdoor objects.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3534 7782 3536 7782 3538 7780 3540 7780
      3543 7783 3549 7782 3556 7737 3530 7736
      3529 7783
TIME...MOT...LOC 1939Z 263DEG 26KT 3539 7789

31

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